Archive for September, 2019

Thunberg’s are Go! 04

September 28, 2019

The third example of the anti-Thunberg argument comes from Amanda Vanstone. An ex-minister in the Coaltion government. Often thought of as a moderate. This should be the place were we can find a way into discussion about the issues. Sadly, it is not.

She begins.

It’s a measure of where we’ve come to in public debate that I have thought more than twice about writing this piece. The days of civilised debate, of accepting different opinions seem to be disappearing.

None of us likes being yelled at or chastised for our views. The pleasure of exchanging opinions, exploring them and in the process better understanding or modifying our own is one of the hallmarks of a free society.

Vanstone would have been much more persausive here if she had made this comment when the Right started its head kicking of everyone who disagreed with it, in the eighties, or perhaps if she had gently asked her old companion Tony Abbott to use a little politeness everynow and again. But its only nowadays that its a problem, when people speak back to the right in the same way that they are spoken to…. But we can perhaps hope that she is going to engage in discussion rather than abuse.

The Greta Thunberg circus has become a complete farce.

That is a really good example of exchanging opinions and exploring them. Beautifully done.

Then follows a passage about Thunberg travelling by emissions free boat is “first-world fake melodrama at its best”. Ok we have quickly gone past expecting civilised debate, and lack of being chastised, but its interesting, how the soon the idea can be discarded, after it is brought up.

We could get the idea from the generally virtue signalling right wing social injustice warriors (see what I did there?) that whatever Thunberg did to produce her message would have been inadequate – unless nobody had heard about it. Then it could be bypassed without comment. Travelled by plane, used Skype all of these would have shown her hypocracy because of the emissions involved, just as not producing emissions was not enough.

It’s a personal choice but I don’t think telling people they’ll never be forgiven, berating them with “how dare you”, does much to bring people on board.

Neither does the kind of language that Vanstone uses. However, Thunberg’s short message, less I believe than 500 words was to the point. If leaders do not do something, when the problem is as clear as it is, how can they be forgiven, or praised? They may want praise for ignoring the problems, but that does not mean they will get it from everybody. And the short speech has certainly provoked a lot of dismisal.

Usually it has the opposite effect. It’s just another sad example of serious and complex political issues being reduced to “I’m right and you’re an idiot”. That kind of discourse just pollutes the town square. It’s fractious and shuts others out. It is toxic to democratic debate.

Exactly what Vanstone is doing. She is so good at this.

The whole trip, the hype and the expense was one big media circus.

Cliche after cliche about why people should not listen to Thunberg. No dealing with her arguments, no civilised exchange. And of course no lack of chastisement. Tut!

Given the over-dramatisation of global warming by some, including Thunberg, we now have a generation of children worried about being burnt to a crisp.

Do we have any evidence presented that climate change effects are being Over-dramatised? No, not necessary clearly. Even if scientists keep saying that the effects are proceeding more rapidly than the official predictions. And should people be relaxed about their ecologies and futures being destroyed? Really? Tell that to farmers.

Out of all the 16-year-olds in the world, why is it that just one features in the media worldwide? There are other kids who care as much, are just as articulate, just as concerned. If you think the world focussing on this one young girl was just some happy accident you are plugged into a faulty socket.

Gently plugging into the conspiracy theory socket here. All this concern is media manipulation. Probably Soros lurks in the background, with his evil tendrils everywhere..

Hmm, we have just had right wing speakers, criticising and dimsissing all these intelligent, caring kids who went on strike, and often refusing to engage in polite discussion with them as well. So we don’t have to look at what happens to one 16-year-old to know what will happen, but we get the idea. Every concerned, caring kid has to worry about retaliation for being bold enough to suggest that people should do something.

I’ve seen the photo of her outside her school on her first climate strike. Posed to draw on the haunting concept of the lonely outsider who (surprise, surprise) becomes the involuntary hero. Who took that photo and, more importantly, why?

Yes it is deeply suspicious that in this age of everyone having mobile phone cameras that anyone (including her parents, teachers or school-friends) would take a photo of her. It must have been planned malevolance, that is the only possible explanation.

Now we have kids all over the world skipping school for the day to show how much they care.

Yes indeed we have another example of Vanstone engaging in civilised debate with all these “kids skipping school”. Evil disobedient creatures that they are.

I’d be more impressed if they gave up their free time to make their statement.

Plenty of them probably have, and have been ignored.

Even more impressive would be if they organised to collectively make a lasting statement by doing something useful. If everyone who skipped school had planted a tree in pre-agreed areas that needed revegetating, that would have made an impressive statement.

Yes they could have been praised and ignored. They could have been more quiet Australians who agree with the Government being ecologically destructive. They would have suggested that planting trees was enough, and we could just ignore the wholesale destruction going on. It would have been much more comfortable for those who don’t care.

If all the protesters focussed on a few areas, whole suburbs could be made better places in which to live. All it would take is commitment and elbow grease. Just skipping school gives you no skin in the game.

Yes, it would be nice if our government did even that much to lead by example, but hey the Coalition likes land-clearing, so we don’t expect leadership, and we are not disappointed. That everyone else should do something, is always a good argument.

Perhaps the Australian protesting kids could all decide to not own a car and to use public transport instead. At home they could not use air conditioning: my generation grew up without it.

Individually they could give up all devices, maybe bar a simple phone and use a shared family tablet or computer.

Careful, she is calling for the end of comsumerism.

Would these striking students be able to pass a simple test on the positive things both sides of politics have done in Australia? Don’t hold your breath.

Certainly it would be hard to pass a test on the positive things that the Coalition have done in the last 10 years, but note the spurious sign of even-handedness.

Everyone can and should play their part. More to the point is how globally we address this. The plain fact is that China and the US produce more than 40 per cent of world emissions followed by India and Russia. The top 15 countries produce more than 70 per cent of emissions. Unless these countries change their ways what we do will make little difference.

Indeed and Australia is one of the top 15 to 20 countries in terms of total CO2 emissions depending on your source (closer to the top if you factor in emissions from coal and gas exports) and is extremely close to the top in terms of emissions per capita. And its getting bigger. We can’t ignore Australia. But she seems to imply we can. Odd. Or is this another example of how it is really everyone else’s problem and we don’t have to do anything?

That’s not a reason to shrug our shoulders and walk away. Not at all. But it does provide some perspective. Did our school protesters think that Xi Jinping, or Modi or Putin gave a damn about their protest? Did they even think about that?

I don’t know, of course, I’m sure some people did think about it. But they did not expect Xi, Modi or Putin to listen. These people are not going to listen to people from Australia. But then Scott Morrison did decide to lecture China on its emissions, while increasing those in his domain. Did he expect China to listen? and he apparently decided not to lecture President Trump who is going out of his way to increase emissions. But Morrison and Trump’s efforts to make things worse will not be commented upon, in an article which is asking us to dismiss Thunberg and student strikers.

Greta Thunberg seemed angered at the presence of President Trump arriving at the UN. She may have just been realising the missed opportunity to get more headlines by berating him.

Anyone who is concerned about emissions is likely to be angry about Trump’s continual efforts to boost them. But it was Trump and his followers who were snarky about Thunberg, not the other way around… The idea that Thunberg is realising a missed opportunity in that moment, is really showing how Vanstone’s mind works, not Thunberg’s. Thunberg could have run after him, if she had wanted, but she didn’t…. Absence of action is somehow proof of intent?

That’s what she does. People have grown tired of that trick.

Hopefully people will get tired of the trick of pretending to be interested in debate while slagging off at people who think there is a problem….

Its depressing. Were any of these three anti-Thunberg writers remotely interested in an opening for discussion? Not as far as I can see. They seemed to be just looking for excuses to put her down, and put concern about climate change down.

That is all.

Thunbergs are Go! 03….

September 28, 2019

More writing against

This second post was forwarded to me, by an intelligent guy, he was just helping me to know what people thought.

This post is not from the wilder fringes of paranoia either. There are much more excessive examples.

She’s all over the news these days, but 16-year-old Greta Thunberg isn’t homegrown or grassroots. Her climate schtick is completely a product of George Soros and Company, which feeds Thunberg her lines

The right seems plagued with fantasy. Take the whole George Soros thing. After he retired, Soros made a couple of mistakes.

He wrote some abstract books about the complexities of the market, which implied that you could make money out of markets because they were not optimal – which contradicted rightist dogma. He made it clear, in more popular books, that the neoliberal revolution of looking after big business first, did not deliver what it promised for ordinary people and, as a ‘master of finance’, his words might have some influence so he had to be discredited. The Republicans reacted as usual with fantasy, innuendo, abuse, and assertion that markets were the best, and that anyone who thought otherwise was after your liberty. He also tried to help to support democracy in Eastern Europe and ran foul of the Russian State, with the usual consequences. He then supported help for civilians in Syria, and of course the Kremlin rounded on that pretty heavily accusing him of supporting ISIS and terrorism etc… Whole heaps of pretty obviously fabricated stories circulated. Why would Soros support Isis? he’s Jewish to start with, and it contradicts everything he has ever said or done…. but coherence, or plausibility, does not count to those who would discredit him.

Yes people even insist that Thunberg is his granddaughter or pet robot or something.

as she traipses around the world pretending to have come up with all this climate hysteria on her own.

Hmm I’ve never seen or heard anything from Thunberg which suggests that she pretends to have come up with “all this climate hysteria” on her own. Is this writer pretending to have come up with climate denial hysteria on their own? I doubt it, but perhaps they are? Perhaps they are trying to pretend to be a completely original and independent thinker? I don’t know. But I guess the statement is dimissive, so it might sound persuasive, if you were already inclined to dimiss Thunberg and global warming, and weren’t reading with that much attention..

In truth, Thunberg is never without her handler, Luisa-Marie Neubauer, a 23-year-old, far-left activist from Germany who’s the “Youth Ambassador” for an international lobbying and campaigning organization known as the “ONE Foundation,” which is funded by George Soros, Bill & Melinda Gates, and Bono, among other celebrity names.

Thunberg associates with a few people who have similar ideas!!! Oh wow. People like Alan Jones, or oil company executives, would never do that! They wouldn’t use the Atlas Network or anything. They have way too many principles for that.

“Far left” clearly means anyone who thinks the kind of argument being put forward in this anti-Thunberg email is silly.

Besides the fact that Thunberg herself comes from a family of freemasons, her mother supposedly having ties to Bavarian Illuminati founder Adam Weisshaupt,

Her family are supposedly freemasons. No evidence is given, but let’s assume its true even if the name dropping of Adam Weisshaupt, pretty much implies the writer has no evidence but lots of fantasy. The “supposedly” is neat, because if anyone can be bothered to show that it is bullshit then the writer can say it was only supposedly, they weren’t asserting it was true…..

But it is true that the founders of the US were nearly all freemasons. They must also be involved in this conspiracy as well!!!! They plotted all those years ago so that a Swedish teen would try and take on the oil and coal companies!! to instigate their plan for world communism and wealth redistribution!!!

Well it’s as rational.

Neubauer, her controller, works for a major globalist entity that’s working to implement Agenda 2030 in Germany via the Paris Climate Accord.

Her controller? Do we have any evidence for that? No? What is the Sinister “Agenda 2030”? It’s a UN plan for sustainable development involving the 17 Sustainable Development Goals. Must be evil. We want unsustainable development now!!! non of this survival crap. And Germans are in favour of cutting emissions. It’s A NAZI-COMMUNIST-FREEMASON-UN PLOT!!!!

Neubauer is also a member of Alliance 90, The Greens, and Green Youth, three communist organizations that are using the “threat” of climate change as a cover to push for sweeping policy changes all around the globe – changes that will, of course, eliminate freedom and liberty in order to “save the planet.”

We need freedom to destroy the planet, or we are not free??? Ok, that is a bit weird, but I guess these people have never heard the conservative saying that with freedom comes responsibility. And they assume that everyone opposing them can be described as communist – even those pro-capitalist people like Bill Gates who think climate change is likely to be true.

No matter how many times climate change is exposed as a total hoax, there’s still a contingency of the populace that believes it to be the gospel truth – especially when little girls appear all over the news to reprimand the world about the “science” behind it.

No matter how often climate change denialism is revealed to be a total hoax and the facts all wrong, a tiny number of denialists keep repeating their hoax as if nothing had changed. They appear all over the media, to reprimand or supress anyone for listening to scientists.

Whatever the case may be, it’s obvious that Thunberg isn’t coming up with the many scripts she reads before Congress, the media, and most recently the United Nations. Heck, she doesn’t even speak English as her first language, yet somehow we’re supposed to believe that Thunberg is able to come up with a nonstop flow of professional speeches to present on any given day?

And she is Swedish and speaks English competently – Must be Rosemary’s baby!!!! No teenager could speak English competently, even if most younger Swedes speak English, extremely well.

“So-called ‘climate change’ remains the greatest fraud being perpetrated on humanity,” wrote one commenter at The Gateway Pundit. “It is nothing more than a multi-trillion dollar taxation and wealth redistribution program scheme designed by the U.N. to destroy America by destroying capitalism.”

Wow, A Commentator? Wonder what science they specialise in? Wonder who pays them? Yes let’s just say people who accept the science are hoodwinked, and those who accept propaganda are free thinkers. If we repeat it often enough, it must be true.

Let’s be real…. Climate change denial remains the greatest fraud being perpetrated on humanity. It is nothing more than a multi-trillion dollar taxation and wealth redistribution program scheme designed by the corporate elite to destroy America and the world by supporting big business and ecological destruction. I’m not supplying any evidence for this position either, but at least it’s plausible, because that is what it does….

The right often seems very weird. I suspect it is because they are supporting policies that spell destruction for most people, and have to promote culture wars, fiction and endless abuse, because that is all they have to get people on side.

I’ve always been interested in varieties of conspiracy theory, because I don’t think you can understand modern politics if you don’t consider it to be (more or less) central to mainstream righteous political discourse.  

It is important to realise what kind of (dis)information circulates as ‘fact’ amongst large amounts of the population, and how little it appears to connect with reality, and how many strands of imagination can be connected in a few words.

People, who I knew, in the centre and moderate left in the US did not even know what most people believed was fact about Hilary Clinton. To them, it seemed completely unbelievable that anyone could believe this kind of stuff, and yet it probably helped bring about Donald Trump. Trump’s real misdemeanours where not in the same league as those imagined about Clinton. Possibly Trump could not continue without the widespread tolerance of idea of the great left-wing conspiracy which firmly controls government bureaucracy, universities, business and media.

Once you understand the terms, the evil leftist conspiracy is even hinted at by respectable people like Amanda Vanstone who should be above using it, but is not, as we shall see in the next piece. Certainly her more outré readers would get the references and implications.

Those on the right who know this has to be rubbish, may tend to respond by thinking that all information is equally rubbish, and become cynical about ‘everything’. Nothing is true, nothing is accurate, there is nothing to do except just keep on keeping on. Climate change might be a hoax too – certainly if they don’t like the solutions which are proposed.

The “Info-wars” site and its like, seem almost mainstream nowadays amongst the right, but I can’t think of anything even remotely comparable on the left – apart from those very few supposedly Labor people who tell me the Greens deliberately set out to get Scott Morrison elected – but they seem to rouse more scorn than acceptance… They are not mainstream in the same kind of way.

Is it possible to discuss anything with people who proudly break all the procedures of logic and evidence? I’d like to think so, but how do we do it????

Thunbergs are Go! 02: writing against

September 27, 2019

Climate change denial warriors have been berating Greta Thunberg all week for daring to say we need to look after the world, for suggesting that adults were letting her generation down, and for suggesting people should take science seriously.

I thought it might be useful to look at some of the styles of argument employed in the next couple of articles on this blog. This require several conditions. First off, I could not select the articles themselves, as I might knowingly, or unconsciously, choose badly argued or stupid articles. The articles had to be recommended to me, by people who were intelligent and who agreed with them. Secondly I had to try and restrain myself from being rude. The Second point was probably more difficult – oh let’s be clear, by the end of it I failed. These people did not want a discussion and they just handed out abuse, and a demand to shut up about climate change..

The first article was a broadcast by Australian right wing ‘shock jock’, Alan Jones. This guy is highly influential; newspapers write feature articles about him, his words get wide circulation, he is hostile to anything to do with climate change, although he often opposes fracking and coal mining near his many property holdings. He can be said to be central to the Australian media, and its self-image. The speech was recommended by an American, so that shows he has international repute among the right.

The speech is here. To be fair he is reporting a letter written to him that he thinks is a wonderful response to teenagers protesting aganst climate change.

He starts by asserting climate change is a hoax. Ok there is a hoax here, but its called ‘denialism’ Or perhaps more accurately, the “don’t do anything, because it will affect our sponsor’s profits” move; there are lots of motives we can imagine for denying the problem or its severity, but we don’t know what he, or the person he is quoting, is about, so let’s not pretend we do – it does not seem a courtesy that will be extended back.

He then attacks young people for:

1) Having airconditioning in class rooms (Yes its getting hotter and no the kids probably did not agitate for this, but parents might have done. It is obviously unfair to agitate to stay alive. If you know anything about NSW classrooms a lot of them are demountable and made of metal which heats up quite a bit in summer. Education department figures show there are 10,000 classrooms in NSW with no form of air conditioning or evaporative coolers. <https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/where-summer-is-stifling-the-nsw-schools-with-and-without-air-con-20180711-p4zqsx.html>
Of course Alan Jones and his like, oppose using solar panels to keep things below heat stroke territory in summer. He might need to get his facts right).

2) TV in every room and computers (Hmm, the kids buy TVs for every room? The kids do not manufacture the TVs nor promote them for sale, nor pay for them. Neither did they design a workplace which requires computerisation, or for people to use mobile phones to be in constant contact. Nor do they spend millions of dollars trying to convince people to upgrade their phones even if the old ones are still working. Kids are really so powerful, that they did all this???? I presume Alan Jones and his team, who are signalling virtuously here, do not use computers or smart phones at work, or demand that they be available – or is it ok to use them because they deny climate change is a problem?)

3) The kids all decide to be driven to school (really? not the parents deciding its not safe for kids to walk to school? I assume he has done some research on any of what is being asserted here? No…? Wow he just knows stuff like he knows that climate change isn’t real. This is so convincing….)

4) Then he avoids even the suggestion that the economic system could be generating endless consumerism – its all the kids fault – not the fault of business, not the fault of profit seeking. We can’t suggest capitalism is to blame – it’s got to be the kids. These kids are so powerful they can bend the whole economic system – no wonder he is scared of them.

5) Then he asserts the climate strikers are supported by people who want to boost population. Actually, it’s pretty obvious that there are people who encourage inflating the population are on his side of politics. The Coalition have been driving population increase since John Howard – they mix this with penalising refugees who come by boat, so as to distract people from what they are doing. They reckon its economically necessary to provide for the aging population, make up for the low birthrate, and to keep wages down… Some of those supporters of population growth are the religious right who want everyone to obey God’s commands to keep breeding. They don’t care about the ecological damage this does…. so again this is twisted at best

6) Final killer argument, young people are “virtue signalling little turds” – that is a real reasoned argument for you… more evidence that the righteous have nothing to offer but abuse, and threat… (after they have done the misdirection)

7) Wait! There’s more: “Wake up, grow up and shut up” – well again if you can’t beat people by facts or rational argument just get them to shut up and stop disturbing you in your pursuit of profit and sponsors. This is the righeous love of free speech. They get the right to lie and abuse anyone, but everyone else gets to shut up.

This speech could not be even remotely persuasive to anyone who did not already agree with his position.

The Australian Labor Party and Coal

September 26, 2019

Someone was telling me that the one thing you could bet on was that Labor supported renewables and did not support the Adani coal mine in Queensland.

However:

Before the election the Queensland Labor government apparently gave Adani unlimited water rights, for the mine. This looks like enthusiastic support at the cost of many people in Queensland, especially with the current drought.

Labor, did not have to run their recent election campaign by accepting the fictional job figures that Adani promoted out of court, but severely diminished in court, and they did not have to avoid proposing any alternative projects which would bring more employment in the area.

Labor did not have to ignore the possibility the Adani mine could damage the water table, and destroy farms all down central Qld and NSW. They could also have made it clear they were not happy with the mine.

Labor did not have to support fracking in the Northern Territory against the wishes of the Aboriginal landholders, to show how eager they were to support renewables.

After the election, Labor did not have to support and help pass two motions in the Senate saying how wonderful the Adani mine was.

After the election, the Queensland Labor government did not have to rush to approve the mine, nor did they have to strip away the right of aboriginal owners to object. Nor did they have to drop prosecutions against Adani for breaking environmental conditions. They could have moved slowly, rather than with avid enthusiasm.

After the election Hunter Valley Labor candidate Joel Fitzgibbon was saying that Labor should have made it clearer that they were not anti-coal, during the election. Nobody, corrected him, so we can assume they are happy for that to stand.

After the election, Queensland party president John Battams gave a speech saying “Queensland Labor supports the coal industry” which most people would take as support for Adani.

If this is not supporting the mine, what would they do to support it?

Character and leadership

September 26, 2019

It is sometimes stated (often in defense of President Trump, and often by Evangelist Christians) that a leader with bad character can still be a great leader.

Yes character might not matter that much, unless you were a real conservative, in which case you could think differently.

Conservatives used to think that good character (or at least the pretense of good character) was vital in a leader as the leader is an exemplar of behaviour, who others will imitate. Bad character and immorality ‘rub off’ on to others, especially onto followers.

Having a leader with overt bad character will lead to followers imitating that bad character and gaining bad character, and that will lead to the election of further leaders with bad character, which will lead to a nation with bad character. Eventually nearly everyone will lose their way, and the nation will decay and collapse.

No real conservative could support Trump through cold pragmatism, because the ends do not justify the means. They realise that the unintended consequences of apparent success, may well lead to disaster. Real conservatives aim to conserve what is good, not junk it.

Thunbergs are Go! 01

September 25, 2019

Someone on Facebook pointed out that Forbes was one of the few places that got Greta Thunberg’s message about the Green New Deal. However, Forbes smoothed over the problems quite noticeably, suggesting the problems were made by the ‘left’ being political….

The Forbes author (Jeff McMahon) wrote:

The climate crisis is a universal cause [not a political cause].

Conservatives need a way to get on board. It’s difficult for them to support a policy that evokes the New Deal. And conservative opposition will relegate the Green New Deal to the realm of fantasy at least until a cataclysm arrives like the one that inspired the original New Deal.

Fair enough one might think, especially given the propensity of leading politicians and academics for travel in limousines and planes, which the author remarks on, and the problems conservatives have with responsibility towards others which the New Deal idea invokes, and which the author does not remark on.

Anyway, in her speech, Thunberg apparently said:

The science doesn’t mainly speak of ‘great opportunities to create the society we always wanted’. It tells of unspoken human sufferings, which will get worse and worse the longer we delay action….

This is not primarily an opportunity to create new green jobs, new businesses or green economic growth. This is above all an emergency, and not just any emergency. This is the biggest crisis humanity has ever faced.

So let’s be clear here, the Forbes argument is that a “green new deal” both cannot solve our problems, and politicises the problems alienating so-called ‘conservatives’….

The author is missing Thunberg’s implication that pursuing business opportunities as usual also cannot solve our problems, even if this pleases ‘conservatives.’

We might be pushed to wonder why is it that staying on the road to profit for some and destruction for most, cannot be described as political, while necessary change for survival is necessarily described as political? Perhaps the suggestion that preserving established power/wealth relations might have something to do with that, is too obvious….

However, a more important paradox is that people will not take the political action to move away from the situation we live in, if they don’t have a vision of where they are going. And it is hard to have a vision of where we are going that is not political.

To survive, we may need radical change. We probably need some form of ‘degrowth’. At the least, we probably need a change in capitalism, and ideas of ‘development’ – otherwise why would we not continue on as we are doing? Any change challenges what we have now.

Those who support the inequalities, destructiveness and comforts of the current system (and who usually call themselves ‘conservatives’), will probably never “get on board” and support doing anything useful about climate change because they are likely to see it as political, as it involves changing the arrangements we have now. The more change becomes necessary, the more they are likely to see it as politically inspired, and thus resist it….

So if action seeming to be political in conservative eyes, is to blame for us refusing to change, then we will never take positive action, because such action is inherently prone to being seen as political…

We can probably never take such people with us. So people who want to change, and who want to make change, have to go on without self proclaimed conservatives. Rather than asking for fairness, we might have to allow them to freeload, until they get the message.

We need climate generosity not climate justice.

Population and Technology?

September 21, 2019

Population creates pressures on land, water and food supplies, is it possible to solve these problems with improved technology?

Firstly, let us acknowledge that increasing population is a significant problem. Obviously you cannot have an infinte population of humans on the planet and expect anything to work. The planet probably could not survive a population of 20 billion humans whatever the technology.

This is the classic Malthusian problem, and one of the ways that we have solved that problem is through improved technology and improved agriculture. We now grow more food than ever before. Can we keep improving our yields? The answer is probably not. We will eventually reach peak phosphorus, and peak other nutrients. This will occur when we have, if I can put it crudely, shat and pissed most of the essential minerals into the sea, where they will be hard to access. This problem of removing nutrients from the country, and putting them into the seas has been known since mentioned by the nineteenth century scientist Justus von Liebig, and is the basis of John Bellamy Foster’s talk of Marx’s analysis of the “Metabolic rift”.

So there is a point in talking about how do we reduce population or slow population growth, and whether there is a role technology can play in helping us to deal with the effects of population growth.

We do know that increase of population radically slows, where women have a degree of freedom, ability to be self supporting and access to birth control. In other words, the more equitable and the less ‘patriarchal’ the society the better for population decrease. So there is a possible solution to the population problem, but it is not popular with significant forces in the world. These forces are usually religious, although sometimes nationalist politicians campaign for population growth possibly to get more canon fodder or to sponsor economic growth. It has been argued that one of the reasons for British social security is that working class men made unhealthy and weak soldiers – improving fertility was another conjoint solution.

If ‘patriarchy’ is the problem and we know a solution but seem reluctant to use it, then population increase is primarily a political problem, not a technical problem (once reliable birth control exists).

As far as I understand, the main problems today, which are intensified by population increase, involve distribution of food, allocation of living space, avoidance of warfare, growing lack of access to drinkable water, and the destruction of natural systems of waste disposal and regrowth.

Poorer, less powerful, people are being dispossessed from land, which is taken for mining, deforestation, industrial agriculture, city expansion and so on. This destroys those people’s ability to be self-supporting, and often severs their connection with being attentive to, and looking after, natural systems. It often forces them into the cities. This, again, seems a political problem.

Some of the politics arises because businesses are given too much power to expand and to insist upon satisfying their drives, and natural processes are given a monetary value which, if paid, allows destruction. For example, water rights are sold by governments to private companies who then sell it to those who can pay the most, excluding many others who might need it more, but have less money. Emissions trading systems allow wealthy people to pollute. As said earlier, we also waste water and soil nutrients in coastal cities which pump it all into the ocean rather than back onto the land.

Likewise, in Australia, it has sometimes seemed that rather than belong to the people, coal belongs to the State which seems owned by coal miners, and hence people get displaced so that land can be destroyed for cheap coal, and, with it, potential food and water supplies. The possession by coal seems to be so extensive that it sometimes seems Australia spends more to get people to mine here, than we make from them in taxes or royalties.

We also have the problem of the huge ecological footprint of certain populations, and this footprint might be more senstibly distributed as well as cut – as I’ve said before, we simply can’t survive if everyone on the planet has the kind of footprint common in contemporary Australia…

All of these problems seem to be primarily political rather than technological.

That is, the questions are really about how do we persuade some people to have less, so that others can have more, and how do you prevent companies from engaging in destruction if it makes money? I don’t have any easy solutions to any of this at all.

On even simple fronts like energy, it seems everyone could be doing a lot better with the technology we have, rather than hoping for new tech – and this failure to act with what we have, is again a set of political, rather than purely technical, issues.

I’m dubious that even new tech can make that much difference, unless its completely unprecedented… which is a lot to pin our hopes on. However, without a change in politics, technology could simply make the processes worse; so that we destroy more land more quickly, strip soil of its nutrients with more efficiency, or create even more unequal distributions of wealth, nutrition, power and involvement.

But if the problems are more political than technological, then they can possibly be rectified with relative ease, once people start realising this and start to act.

Energy Transitions in India, Germany and Australia

September 16, 2019

I am participating in a project with other researchers from UTS, the University of Sydney and elsewhere, which compares the trajectories of energy transition in three countries; India, Germany and Australia. This is a preliminary set of arguments. It should not be assumed to express the consensus, conclusions, or more detailed knowledge of my colleagues, who are far better informed than myself.

We can begin with the simple observation that, greenhouse gas emissions are, at best, above targeted reductions (Germany), and, at worse, are steadily increasing (Australia and India). So the socio-political systems in place to reduce emissions and help the transition to renewable energies are not working very well.

All these countries seem to be encouraging what we might call neoliberal transition, where ‘neoliberal’ is defined as State encouragement of (largely big and established) business, the judging of acceptability by monetary profit or cheapness, and the provision of taxpayers’ money to protect those established businesses. Neoliberalism officially proclaims that the ‘free market’ provides the best solution to every problem, while not being ashamed to subsidise and protect favoured and influential market players (even while policy makers are claiming they are after a level playing field). The rhetorical point of neoliberalism is to posit business as the only, or most, important element in society, and profit-taking as the prime motivation for action. That helps explain why business interests are prioritized over all other interests. Neoliberalism, expresses the State as captured by capitalism, or specific corporate players.

Neoliberalism aims at maximizing profits and cheapness of production. Neither of which may always guarantee quality, or that the company works with local people in the local peoples’ interest. In Australia, the heavily neoliberal Federal government is talking of taxpayer subsidy of coal fired energy and is attempting to prolong the life of uneconomic coal based energy stations.

After blaming renewables for the steady increase in electricity prices (a point which is contested), the Australian government is attempting to force lower prices for electricity, which may harm smaller suppliers, and leave companies with less capital for investment in new energy sources. In the Hunter Valley in Australia, this move has involved a well-publicised fight against the closure of the Liddell power station, which its owners AGL, consider uneconomical, dangerous and fully replaceable with renewables.

The Government is also encouraging the opening of massive new coal mines, the expansion of old mines (primarily for export) and fracking, in the name of economic well-being.

Through these actions, the government appears to be putting the welfare of fossil fuel companies above everyone else.

In Germany, looking after established corporations has required a lot of taxpayers money in payouts and tax breaks. According to reports from the Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, Germany gives 55 billion euros ($61 billion US) in tax breaks to its biggest polluting industries, through exemptions from levies on kerosene, diesel and other sources of energy. Large corporations such as BASF SE and Thyssenkrupp AG benefit from exemptions from the Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz, surcharge which are offered to companies with very high levels of electricity consumption. This obviously undermines the function of the Emissions Trading Scheme, or any other economic factors in persuading companies not to use fossil fuels, or become energy efficient. In the neoliberal regime, these companies can simply point out that if they do pay the cost for not using low emissions energy, they can simply go elsewhere. And this must be morally right given neoliberalism.

Looking after established corporations in this way, has also helped lessen any beneficial effects from the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, which was initially weakened by the over-issuing of tradeable certificates so the scheme would not hurt big and powerful polluters. State protection of big business, while talking of free markets, is neoliberalism at work.

In India both coal and renewables are being boosted for ‘development’, which increases total emissions levels. While the official target is for a total of 175 gigawatts (GW) of renewables by 2022, a Brooking’s institute report claims that in India:

approximately 65 GW of [coal based] power plants are under some stage of construction, with about 50 GW progressed beyond paper plans

This is clearly on top of the already existing coal fired energy plants, which according to some sources amounts to 220GW.

In all these countries, expansion of coalmines and destruction of villages and fertile land continues to be a source of struggle – although this may be coming to a foreseeable end in Germany.

Community energy seems to be being discouraged. Indeed in Germany and India rates of community participation in the transformation seem to be declining, due to the reverse auction process (where players bid for a lowest price to provide electricity) in Germany, and the availability of the grid requiring locally generated power to be destroyed in India. In Australia, community energy may often depend on local Councils deciding to interact with their communities and support such participation, and is thus difficult in areas in which Councils are not supportive. This does not mean there are no community energy projects, but there are few formal guidelines, especially in Australia. In NSW, regulations appear to frequently prevent sharing of locally generated power with specific other local people, thus preventing the construction of microgrids, other than on the one property. This probably comes about because of the neoliberal benefits of privatising the grid, and the need to keep grid companies profitable.

Neoliberal methods, by definition, tend to cut out popular participation and community control. Neoliberal consultations are often cursory and private, or ‘commercial in-confidence’; as good consultations are costly and slow, and can be considered interferences in the flow of the established market. Neoliberal methods can also lead to the destruction of land rendering it unsuitable for agricultural purposes, or which change land use, and changes of people’s relationships to the land, through rigorous application of property rights which define property as disposable. The production of solar panels may also be heavily polluting, and the concrete bases used for field based renewables, both solar and wind, also emit greenhouse gases and possibly decreases the mass of soil fertility. This does not mean that renewables may not have far less disastrous effect than coal, but that renewables are not inherently without unpleasant environmental and social consequences, and neoliberal, or commercial, policies do nothing to discourage this.

All of this sets up the paradox that we are trying to reconnect people to the necessity of maintaining ecologies, by disrupting their relationships to the ecology (pleasurable and otherwise).

Cutting out community based renewables, with input from local players, may leave people open to being used to resist the transition completely, as when politicians, media and astro-turf groups appear to encourage ideas of wind turbine syndrome and normally ignorable environmental destruction, in a “by all means have renewables, but not here” move. In Germany, increasing resistance to land based wind farms, and above ground power cables going through the countryside, has already helped slow down the transformation, and similar signs are present in Australia.

One reason for supporting neoliberal transitions is that it could be relatively quick, and relatively free of financial risk to tax-payers.

However, Neoliberal transition can mean diverting money to established companies who are not engaging in transition, or supporting established companies effectively sabotaging the transition by refusing to co-operate with competitors, or refusing to build the necessary, and resilient, grid infrastructure.

A problem with community based energy democracy, is lack of co-ordination and lack of speed, as it takes time to raise money and get people on board. However, locally based renewable power grids may, as well as being more considerate to the local people and landscapes, may also be less prone to wide scale disruption from storm events, which are likely to increase with climate change.

This may suggest another paradox: energy democracy may not have the speed to produce the transformation in time, but if we do produce the transformation in time it may be alienating for most people, put in place without proper consultation or participation, and generate protest and disruption.

If all goes well, then Germany might reach its targets but, without radical changes, India and Australia will carry on increasing their emissions. This continues to suggest that the procedures of transition in all three countries require modification.

The most obvious suggestion is to stop expecting companies to do it all, to stop actively inhibiting those companies who are engaged in change, and to make it easier and clearer for local communities (rural and city based) to set up their own renewable microgrids and complexes.

But this may not be enough.


Predictions of Energy Change

September 16, 2019

This is my somewhat harsher version of the beginning of a coauthored and forthcoming book chapter. I particularly thank Tom Morton of UTS for much of the data and inspiration for what follows.

There is a lot of discussion as to whether or not the world has reached “peak demand” for fossil fuels as an energy source. Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gases and greenhouse gases are generating climate change. This is not the only ecological crisis we face, but it is the one with the largest acknowledgement.

Large players in the fossil fuel industry seem eager to imply that world demand for coal and other fossil fuels are declining, but there is little evidence to imply that an energy transition to renewables is coming with the kind of speed we need.

For example, The BHP group states that coal will:

progressively lose competitiveness to renewables on a new build basis in the developed world and in China. In our view, the cross over point should have occurred in these major markets by the end of next decade on a conservative estimate. However, coal power is expected to retain competitiveness in India, where the coal fleet is only around 10 years old on average, and other populous, low income emerging markets, for a much longer time.

(Italics added)

BP are more optimistic still, stating that “renewables are the largest source of energy growth, gaining at an unprecedented rate” and “are set to penetrate the global energy system more quickly than any fuel previously in history.”

ExxonMobil describes a more complicated picture. While they suggest that coal use “likely peaked” in 2013 (p. 29), they suggest the immediate energy “switch” will be to gas (p. 33), which continues greenhouse gas emissions, if at a lesser rate (although this is not certain because of perpetual leakage). However, they also predict that:

global CO2 intensity of energy use remain[s] fairly constant, with increased coal use in some non-OECD countries offsetting improvements in the OECD countries (p. 39).

(Italics added)

They also predict that by 2040 the global energy mix will be:

  • 30% oil,
  • 26% gas,
  • 20% coal,
  • 8% biomass,
  • 7% nuclear,
  • 4% wind and solar, and
  • 4% hydro/geo/biofuels (p. 28).

It hardly needs to be emphasized that this implies that over 80% of a our fuel use will continue to emit greenhouse gases, even by 2040. The degree of transition to renewables will be trivial. Essentially, ExxonMobil predict a transition to a state which is not much different from today, as is shown by the IEA.

The IEA, claims, in its Key World Energy Statistics for 2017, that only 1.5% of world primary energy supply by fuel in 2016 was “geothermal, solar, wind, tide/wave/ocean, heat,” while 2.5% is hydro and 9.7% is biofuel (p. 6). That is, the proportion of our current energy usage in the world, which is renewable, non greenhouse gas emitting, could be said to be less than trivial!

We may also need to recall that we have been aware of the need for transition to low greenhouse gas emission energy, since the early 1980s, with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change being signed in 1992, and this is the best we have done under the current system, and leaving it to private enterprise. (Because the market always knows what is best).

The change predicted and celebrated by ExxonMobil is hardly a transition, and hardly makes much of an impact on a situation which seems to becoming worse daily.

While recognising low utilisation today, the IEA is somewhat more optimistic in its prognosis: in Renewables 2018, it predicts that the share of renewables in meeting global energy demand is expected to grow by one-fifth to reach 12.4% in 2023. Renewables should have the fastest growth in the electricity sector, providing almost 30% of power demand in 2023, up from 24% in 2017. During this period, renewables are forecast to supply more than 70% of global electricity generation growth, led by solar PV and followed by wind, hydropower, and bioenergy. However:

30% of the growth in renewables consumption is expected to come from modern bioenergy… due to bioenergy’s considerable use in heat and its growing consumption… in transport. Other renewables make a negligible contribution to these two sectors [heat and transport], which together account for 80% of total energy consumption (IEA 2018: 3).

(Italics added)

Bioenergy is not clean. At best it consumes fertile land previously intended for agriculture, or leads to felling of old growth forests, thus dispossessing poorer farmers and forest dwellers and increasing the price of food. Biofuel is only of any conceivable use, if it replaces, and lowers, consumption of fossil fuels.

In another recent report the IEA adds:

Energy consumption worldwide grew by 2.3% in 2018, nearly twice the average rate of growth since 2010… natural gas… emerged as the fuel of choice last year, accounting for nearly 45% of the increase in total energy demand. Demand for all fuels rose, with fossil fuels meeting nearly 70% of the growth for the second year running….

global energy-related CO2 emissions increased to 33.1 Gt CO2, up 1.7%….

The United States had the largest increase in oil and gas demand worldwide. Gas consumption jumped 10% from the previous year, the fastest increase since the beginning of IEA records in 1971. The annual increase in US demand last year was equivalent to the United Kingdom’s current gas consumption.

Growth in India was led by coal (for power generation) and oil (for transport), the first and second biggest contributors to energy demand growth, respectively.

(Italics added)

The IEA points out that the pace and scale of the global energy transition, “is not in line with climate targets”. This we can almost certainly agree with.

It is, however, in line with a future which maximises fossil fuel company profits and destroys normal life for most people. That is were the World’s current policies have led us.

Data like this, might make you think, that we need Revolution, even if the consequences of Revolution will almost certainly be painful and horrendous. However, while we may wonder if we have any time left to avoid looming disaster, let us try the relatively painless, if perhaps insufficient move, of encouraging high renewable targets, ending of fossil fuel exploration, mining and use, within the next ten years, even if it costs some taxpayers’ money and risks financial problems for some companies. The cost will probably be less than that of oil wars.

This may require us to also consider the necessity of “degrowth” which will be considered in a later post.

_______________________________

Addenda

A new report by the IEA (20 September 2019) states that:

After stalling last year, global capacity additions of renewable power are set to bounce back with double-digit growth in 2019, driven by solar PV’s strong performance, according to the International Energy Agency.

The IEA expects renewable capacity additions to grow by almost 12% this year, the fastest pace since 2015, to reach almost 200 GW, mostly thanks to solar PV and wind. Global solar PV additions are expected to increase by over 17%

However:

Renewable capacity additions need to grow by more than 300 GW on average each year between 2018 and 2030 to reach the goals of the Paris Agreement.

Even with the “bounce back”, we are still not moving fast enough.

The climate scientist hoax?

September 15, 2019

People frequently tell me, with an air of great authority, that climate scientists only believe in climate change because they gain personal benefit from it.

Thus many people claim that you simply put “climate change” into a research project, say about the nesting habits of squirrels, and lo and behold, the grant awarding offices will give you the money to research squirrels which you previously could not get. Its a sure money winner apparently.

They never say how they know these kinds of statement are true. I would doubt that many of those making these statements had ever put in a grant application to get money to research anything, and I doubt still more that these applications were suddenly accepted because they added a quick reference to climate change the next year.

They certainly never say who they got the grant money from.

They don’t seem to think about all the questions and work they would have to do to relate the squirrels (or whatever) to climate change, whether climate change affected the nesting habits in general and how, or whether any observed changes varied by place? Did climate change have an effect on forestation, and other parts of the ecology, or where the squirrels being affected more severely by human initiated deforestation, pollution, water loss to mines, or development, rather than climate change? What other fauna might be being affected by the same underlying factors, and how does that relate to the effects being noticed in squirrels?

Is there a long standing set of problems about the nesting habits of squirrels, or are they commenting on a set of known changes in squirrel nesting patterns? What does previous literature suggest and how are they reacting to it.

If you have written a grant, you will know that you have to do slightly more than use a few buzz words to get one, and indeed the buzz words may go against you. Various conservative governments have in my life time, decided not to award grants the Australian Research Council had approved, because they did not like the politics implied by the buzz words of the research.

Let us be clear: In reality, scientists seem to get more more or less no benefit at all from supporting climate change.

Not only will they not get special treatment in grant applications, but they can get silenced or sacked by Governments if they speak or give the politically wrong results. Experiments and data collections get shut down, or diverted elsewhere. They get attacked by journalists and internet trolls. They receive death threats, if they get noticed. They run the risk of their personal emails being subpoenaed by right wing think tanks looking for scandal. They have to fight against the almost bottomless funding of fossil fuel companies. They have to constantly refute material that has been refuted before. They have to face up to the massive disruption that is happening to the Earth, with the knowledge that effective action has been continually blocked for ‘economic’ reasons and special deals, and that in the US and Australia, effective action is completely improbable. They even have to watch as governments launch new permissions for business to pollute and destroy the environment, including vital water supplies. If they are biologists, they are looking at whole eco-systems collapsing or dying out, and they have an awareness of what is likely to come. Their favourite squirrels and everything that depends on them, might be dying out. This is depressing to put it mildly.

The only benefit I can think of is that scientists, and others who recognize climate change is real, get the sense that they are standing up for truth and reality. They are refusing to bow down to State and Corporate authority. And they get some support from other scientists, but that’s about it.