This is largely a series of quotes from the UN 2019 Production Gap report.
Governments [through out the world] are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway and 120% more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.
P.4
Australia is not only a major fossil fuel producer, but also the world’s leading exporter of coal (IEA 2019a) and the second largest producer and exporter of LNG (IGU 2018). With government backing, and proposed major new investments in mines and port facilities, Australia’s coal and gas outputs and exports could continue their rapid rise (Office of the Chief Economist 2019). Proposed large coal mines and ports — if fully completed — would represent one of the world’s largest fossil fuel expansions (around 300 Mt per year of added coal capacity) (Buckley 2019a; Department of the Environment and Energy 2018). The rise of hydraulic fracking has also opened the door to discussions on tapping into the country’s vast resources of unconventional (shale) gas (Westbrook 2018).
Australia supports increased fossil fuel production through several measures:
Tax-based subsidies total more than AUD 12 billion (USD 9 billion) per year (Market Forces 2019). This includes the fuel tax credit scheme, which allows fossil fuel companies to claim tax credit on their fuel use (Australian Taxation Office 2017), and a budgeted AUD 1.7 billion (USD 1.3 billion) for accelerated depreciation for oil and gas assets (Australian Department of the Treasury 2015).
Geoscience Australia, a government agency, absorbs sector risk by financing and conducting resource exploration, which was worth AUD 100 million (USD 75 million) in fiscal 2017 (Department of Industry, Innovation and Science 2018).
The government takes various steps to support increased coal production, including, for example, fast-track approval, private road construction, and reduced royalty payments for Adani’s recently approved Carmichael coal mine project in the Galilee Basin (Buckley 2019b).
Recent legislation increased government support for investment in new overseas infrastructure projects from AUD 2 million to AUD 1.2 billion to accommodate Australian coal and gas exports (Parliament of Australia 2019; Hasham 2019).
Government projections show coal production growing another 10% by 2024 and 34% by 2030, relative to 2018 levels (Office of the Chief Economist 2019; Syed 2014). As shown in Figure 4.6, the government also envisions gas production growing 20% by 2024 and 33% by 2030 relative to 2018 levels (Office of the Chief Economist 2019; Syed 2014).
Under these projections, Australia’s extraction-based emissions from fossil fuel production would nearly double (a 95% increase) by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. However, its NDC targets a reduction in territorial GHG emissions of 26–28% over the same period (Government of Australia 2016)”
p.35
This likely illustrates:
- The heavy symbolic importance that coal has for developmentalism and prosperity, even faced with ecological destruction and massive climate change: the coal rush continues.
- The dominant groups in the world are heavily identified (self-cateogrised) as belonging with fossil fuel companies, the use of fossil fuels, or the traditional trajectories of development through fossil fuels. They do not seem to care what will happen to their populations if climate scientists are correct about the likely tumultuous effects of higher Greenhouse gas emissions.
- Dominant groups do not see that a method which used to produce order, is now highly likely to produce chaos, unintended effects or blowback. Reality has changed but ideology lingers, as do the power and wealth relations of fossil fuel societies.
- The mess of information, provides many alternate stories which can make it seem that the risk of the process is negligible, and that the dominant groups find it easy to dismiss information which suggests the risk is not negligible, which further reassures them. I have been told that Right wing MPs in Australia refuse to attend climate briefings, and we know that despite the requests of State Governments, the Coalition recently refused to allow a general briefing of State Treasurers by a member of the Reserve Bank, on the risks of Climate Change. Acceptance of Information seems now almost totally driven by political and market allegiances. They also deny large bush fires could have anything to do with extended droughts, higher than average temperatures, and longer runs at peak temperatures. Instead they and the Murdoch Empire blame the effect on non-existent Greens policies.
- The green paradox; the more likely it is that fossil fuels will be stopped, the more pressure there is to mine and sell them before it is too late, and there are fewer purchasers.
Tags: climate change, coal, Disinformation, economics
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November 26, 2019 at 12:43 am |
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