[Why do I keep writing about Trump? Isn’t this blog supposed to be about climate and technology? Yes, but it is also about disorder and unintended consequences, and the sociology of information.
In the contemporary world Trump has become central to, and illustrative of, these phenomena. He is not responsible for them, but he seems to use, and intensify, them to both keep power and to assert power. He uses the dynamics which are already present with apparent expertise, and his success with those dynamics not only shows something about how they work, but may eventually undermine the ability of the USA to function. That is why I find Trump and ‘Trumpism’, interesting.]
Democrats and the left in general are being way too optimistic about what is happening in Washington.
Trump has not left the White House. He has another two months in which he has the power of an elected King and, given he owns the attorney general and many judges, pretty much the power of an absolute monarchy.
He is engaging in legal warfare. He is stacking agencies with his own people (including a guy who had called Obama a “terrorist leader”) and sacking opponents (including the man who contradicted him over the potential use of the 1807 Insurrection Act to deploy active-duty military units against protests). It is reported that he was wanting to strike Iran’s main nuclear site, as Iran was (not surprisingly) increasing uranium stockpiles. He was persuaded not to, possibly by Mike Pence and Mike Pompeo and others [1], [2]. The Iranians warned that “Any action against the Iranian nation would certainly face a crushing response” [3]. Assuming he leaves office, Trump has two months left in which to try and threaten and irritate the Iranians into a war, so we shall have to see what happens.
He has the Republican party gathered around him, playing along with him, to keep their power and position. He has a massive network of underground media which has no responsibility to anyone or any Truth other than Republican Victory, and the victory of the wealth elites.
On top of that he can, and largely has, established in the minds of Republican voters that there is a question about this election. And that question will remain, even if all of Trump’s challenges fail in the courts, or in the recounts (And some may succeed, who knows? Mistakes do happen). It may even remain if he concedes, but he may never concede – why should he?
That will justify Republican non-cooperation with Biden. It will justify Republican attempts to impeach Biden, and find cause to impeach him – this is despite the ease with which they refused to even listen to the evidence about Trump.
Even if the voting claims do not pan out, then some Republican states might say there is enough doubt to ignore the votes and use their powers to send whomsoever they want to the Electoral College – which would probably benefit Trump. There are apparently precedents.
But even if this does not happen in enough States to make a difference, Trump’s current campaign will keep the fake news sites hot and may even justify continual popular insurrection. Attempts to end that insurrection will be taken as showing the repressive nature of Democrats and the ‘deep state‘. It is likely to justify a Trump family campaign at the next election and the return of overt fascism – this time with few pretenses.
You should not dismiss what he might do.
Most democrats are assuming the law and convention counts for something. They gave in to the ‘referees’ in the Bush/Gore election. However, authoritarians know the law is about power and establishing their legitimacy. It is a weapon – nothing else.
The law will not save us against a united determination by a major power block to keep power – especially if one side foolishly believes in the others obedience to lawful process and convention.
Tags: politics
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