The organisation Global Energy Monitor (About which I know nothing, there are too many sources of information nowadays) working with the Sierra Club, has just released a somewhat depressing report (Boom and Bust 2021) on the world’s coal energy generation. It opens:
A steep increase in coal plant development in China offset a retreat from coal in the rest of the world in 2020, resulting in the first increase in global coal capacity development since 2015. A record-tying 37.8 gigawatts (GW) of coal plants were retired in 2020, led by the U.S. with 11.3 GW and EU27 with 10.1 GW, but these retirements were eclipsed by China’s 38.4 GW of new coal plants. China commissioned 76% of the world’s new coal plants in 2020, up from 64% in 2019, driving a 12.5 GW increase in the global coal fleet in 2020….
Outside China, 11.9 GW [of coal] was commissioned
Boom and Bust: 3, 4.
The Chinese boom began as provinces began using coal plant building to stimulate local economies during Covid.
the boom was enabled by loosened restrictions on new coal plant permits and increased lending for coal mega-projects by the central government.
Boom and Bust: 10
Whether this will continue or not is unclear as China’s Central Environment Inspection Group issued a reprimand to the National Energy Administration for not enforcing the countries official limits on coal development…
They said:
the NEA lowered environmental specifications when revising a coal law and did not focus enough on promoting clean energy and a low-carbon transition.
“New coal power capacity at key areas for air pollution was not strictly controlled, leading to what should be built was not built and what shouldn’t was built….
“The failure to put environmental protection at its due height… is a major reason for long-term extensive development in China’s energy industry,”
Reuters. China accuses energy agency of negligence of environmental protection. 30 January 2021
However, it is not clear what the supposed reprimand means, or whether it has the support of high-ups in the party, and:
China’s 14th Five-Year Plan targets non-fossil energy to grow from 16 to 20% of all energy consumption, a rate of increase that is unlikely to cover the growth in power demand, meaning an expansion of coal power is likely through 2025.
Boom and Bust: 5
There is a level of confusion in Chinese policy. People in the West tend to see China as a ruthless and coherent dictatorship, but it may probably better to see it as a continuous struggle and balancing act. The Central government issues instructions and the local provinces work their ways around them, if they chose. The central government knows that it risks power when it tries to impose its will on insiders (far less problems with ‘outsiders’), and that it could start an uprising, or at least the results could be unpleasant and destabilising, so many things proceed rather haphazardly. Vague instructions, hints, reprimands, protests, screening, misdirection, agreeing the central government is wise but ignoring them as much as possible to satisfy local powers and business, jockeying around factions, doing what you can, occasional overt brutality, and so on.
As another example take this official speech I was referred to as an example of Chinese determination to reduce emissions. It’s translated by google translate, which does not help, but if anything can be said to be vague and woolly it would be this speechifying. No mention of procedures or coal for example, but lots of vague exhortation.
Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, President of the State, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Director of the Central Finance and Economics Commission hosted the ninth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Commission on the afternoon of March 15 to study and promote the healthy development of the platform economy and the realization of carbon
Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the meeting and emphasized that the development of my country’s platform economy is at a critical period. It is necessary to focus on the long-term, take into account the current situation, make up for shortcomings, strengthen weaknesses, create an innovative environment, solve outstanding contradictions and problems, and promote the healthy and sustainable platform economy. Development; the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a broad and profound economic and social systemic change.
[After Xi’s speech] The meeting emphasized that… It is necessary to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, focus on improving utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of the power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the mainstay.
We must implement pollution reduction and carbon reduction actions in key industries, promote green manufacturing in the industrial sector, raise energy-saving standards in the construction sector, and accelerate the formation of green and low-carbon transportation in the transportation sector.
It is necessary to promote major breakthroughs in green and low-carbon technologies, accelerate the deployment of low-carbon cutting-edge technology research, accelerate the promotion and application of pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies, and establish and improve green and low-carbon technology evaluation and trading systems and technological innovation service platforms.
It is necessary to improve the green and low-carbon policy and market system, improve the energy “dual control” system, improve fiscal and taxation, price, finance, land, government procurement and other policies that are conducive to green and low-carbon development, accelerate the promotion of carbon emission rights trading, and actively develop green finance .
We must advocate green and low-carbon life, oppose luxury and waste, encourage green travel, and create a new fashion for green and low-carbon life.
It is necessary to enhance the capacity of ecological carbon sinks, strengthen land and space planning and use management and control, effectively play the role of carbon sequestration in forests, grasslands, wetlands, oceans, soils, and frozen soils, and increase the increase in ecosystem carbon sinks.
It is necessary to strengthen international cooperation in tackling climate change, promote the formulation of international rules and standards, and build a green silk road.
Xi Jinping presided over the ninth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee. People’s Daily, 16 March 2021 Paragraphing altered and introduced.
This increase in coal, despite official public policy, is particularly bemusing as coal in the US collapsed during the Trump years.
retirements rising to 52.4 GW during Trump’s four years compared to 48.9 GW during Obama’s second term. Despite the record pace of retirements President Biden’s pledge to decarbonize the U.S. power sector by 2035 will depend on retiring existing plants even faster, as only one third of the U.S. coal fleet is scheduled to retire by 2035.
Boom and Bust: 4
In the EU:
retirements rose to a record 10.1 GW in 2020 from 6.1 GW in 2019. EU27 retirements were led by Spain, which retired half of its coal fleet (4.8 GW of 9.6 GW).”
Boom and Bust: 4
In most of Asia
South and southeast Asia may be seeing their last new coal plant projects, as government officials in Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia have announced plans to cut up to 62.0 GW of planned coal power. GEM estimates the policies will leave 25.2 GW of coal power capacity remaining in pre-construction planning in the four countries—an 80% decline from the 125.5 GW planned there just five years ago, in 2015.
Boom and Bust: 5
After China, India has the most plants in pre-construction development with 29.2 GW and they commissioned 2 GW of new plants in 2020. Between 2010 to 2017, India increased its coal fleet by an average of 17.3 GW per year.
This is almost the total of the report’s comments on Australia:
Despite the existence of proposals for two new plants totaling 3.0 GW, Australia has not commissioned a new plant since Bluewaters power station in 2009, and that plant was recently declared worthless by one of its part-owners, Sumitomo, which wrote off its US$250 million investment due to the difficulty of obtaining refinancing loans for coal projects.
A proposed 2.0 GW Kurri Kurri coal plant is on shaky ground as the builder China Energy Engineering Group (CEEC) is under sanctions from the World Bank for committing fraud in a power project in Zambia. The proposal has also been made moot by a plan to build a gas-fired plant in Kurri Kurri to replace the Liddel power station, which will be retired in 2023.
Shine Energy’s proposed 1.0 GW Collinsville power station received an A$3.6 million grant for a feasibility study despite the fact that Shine has never developed a power plant.
Boom and Bust: 19 Paragraphing introduced.
The progress is such that:
“no region is close to meeting the required reductions for the 1.5 degree pathway…. [and] the world as a whole is no closer to the 1.5 pathway than it was two and a half years ago.
Globally, the projected coal-fired capacity in 2030, if all proposed projects are realized and retirements are not accelerated further, is almost 2,400 GW, while the amount of capacity consistent with the IPCC 1.5 degree pathways would be 1,100 GW.
Boom and Bust: 15, 17
*************
Footnote:
| Country | Phaseout year | Decision year |
| Belgium | 2017 | 2010 |
| Portugal | 2021 | 2019 |
| France | 2022 | 2016 |
| United Kingdom | 2024 | 2015 |
| Italy | 2025 | 2017 |
| Ireland | 2025 | 2018 |
| Greece | 2028 | 2019 |
| Netherlands | 2029 | 2018 |
| Finland | 2029 | 2019 |
| Canada | 2029 | 2019 |
| New Zealand | 2030 | 2017 |
| Denmark | 2030 | 2017 |
| Israel | 2030 | 2018 |
| Slovakia | 2030 | 2019 |
| Hungary | 2030 | 2019 |
| Germany | 2038 | 2020 |
The Powering Past Coal Alliance claims that they have 36 countries and 36 subnational governments (some of which are within the countries they are counting) who have coal phase out measures.
Tags: China, coal, renewable energy
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