Archive for July, 2021

More simple thoughts on Energy and Economy

July 29, 2021

Basic Economic Facts: Destruction, Pollution and Balance

Extraction of food, minerals, fish, timber, ‘raw materials’ etc. always involves energy usage and destruction. Any economy will involve energy use and destruction of some sort. Very few people seem to want to recognise this.

Because an economy is a cycle we also have to deal with the effects of material that arises as a consequence of the economy’s action. For reasons of clarity I break this material up into ‘waste’ and ‘pollution,’ both of which are produced through energy use/dissipation.

  • Waste is material which can be be ‘used’ or processed by the economy or the ecology as raw materials for ‘repair’ in a ‘reasonable time’.
  • Pollution is matter which cannot be used or processed in such a reasonable time. It may also poison the ecology. So its another part of destruction.

The time frame (‘reasonable’ time) is arbitrary in the sense it may vary between systems, and not be specifiable in advance, but is important, and points to problems of accumulation of waste.

Waste can become pollution if there becomes too much of it. CO2 is a great example. Chlorine is another example, if its used in small amounts to keep water pure, it seems relatively harmless (so far!), but in concentration is deadly.

What people call the natural balance is when the waste and mutual feeding (destruction), plus sunlight (or other source of energy if in the deep sea) more or less balances everything out over time ie repairs things. The destruction feeds into reconstruction. This balance is in many cases delicately stable, and evolution involves the gradual change of the system as a whole.

It is worth emphasising that even balanced and ‘sustainable’ systems change, and modes of extraction which were once relatively harmless, can become destructive of the whole.

Sunlight and Entropy

Entropy is dissipated, non-deliberately usable, energy. Usually heat, which can be thought of as added movement of particles. Entropy always increases in a closed system.

In formal entropy terms, the earth is not a ‘closed system’, because of the mindbogglingly huge amount of sun energy we receive from “outside”.

Without the sun, most life forms would die off reasonably quickly, as the food supplies would rapidly decline and things would start to freeze over. If you had a store of fossil fuels you could probably survive for a while…. We depend on the Sun in a fundamental way. Fossil fuels are essentially fossilised sunlight through plant matter.

Human and other life gains energy from food, which ultimately depends on the sun. Digestion itself takes energy. But the energy released is more than taken to release it. Whether you consider this a transfer of energy or not depends on your perspective.

The process goes

  • Sunlight ->plant -> human (or cow or whatever), or
  • Sunlight ->plant -> cow or whatever-> human .

If you want to be more precise it’s something like

  • Sunlight->plant->[voluntary intermediary animal] -> human -> [possible human predators] -> [as body parts, or excreta] -> plants [and Sunlight].

Each stage involves energy use, and the energy content usually (but not always) declines. The Plant wastes lots of sun energy, and the human wastes lots of plant energy.

I’ve been reluctant to relate entropy to disorder, but, given that it takes energy to produce pollution, and it may sometimes be useful to think of pollution as concrete unusable, disordering or destructive energy – that is materials which cannot be used, transformed or re-cycled by the economy or the ecology at the rate they are produced.

I guess entropy always increases in a closed system… but is that always the case with pollution, or is that a matter of economy and design?

Nevertheless the energy expenditure and pollution should be part of economics.

Comparing Economy and Economia

In, say, an indigenous ‘economia’ (using this word to remind people all economies are not the same) the rate of destruction is equal, or less than equal, to the rate of natural repair (perhaps with a bit of help) or the people die out, or move out until the area has repaired itself, or changed. People do not need much more energy than is generated by their bodies through food consumption.

Indigenous economia has usually become part of the natural balance over time.

In a ‘modern’ developmental/capitalist economy the rate of destruction and pollution is much higher than the rate of natural repair, and much of the destruction cannot be repaired by the ecology itself. The evolutionary balance cycle does not work quickly enough to make repair.

The decision to behave in this destructive way is a political decision, which has brought many benefits, but is now more destructive than beneficial, because we are reaching the limits of what we can destroy.

Humans attempting to repair the damage consume energy. At best repair may involve something like manufactured or transported fertiliser to replace the nutrients extracted from the used soil. That is we are destroying the soil to grow things fast. Making the fertiliser takes materials and energy which is used in transport, in manufacture, in extracting the raw materials etc. So human based repair takes energy. The more repair, the more energy. And this repair also generally involves destruction somewhere else.

Once you have got into a rate of significant destruction (see Earth overshoot day), then you are probably in a bind – desperately searching for new energy to repair or avoid the consequences of destruction.

This economy also brings about and allows far more elaborate power and co-ordination factors, which paradoxically make it more resistant to change. People who can trigger the pathways of power, may not want to adapt to inevitable changes, as they only see threat and the unknown, in such a change. So they may try to avoid the consequences of their destruction and pollution for as long as possible. And until recently that was possible, so they have not had time to learn flexibility, and are likely to think they can fix problems with more energy.

Energy Return on Energy Input

The hunt for new energy runs into the problem of oil. Oil was a truly cheap and easy to use form of energy, even better than coal. The problem with oil is that we have reached the point were it seems new oil fields take significantly more energy to exploit per unit of energy recovered than they use to. Think of deep water drilling, tar sands, etc. Companies don’t do this, if they have easier sources. So the surplus of energy from oil is decreasing. To use a cliché: “The low hanging fruit has been plucked.” As well, burning the oil, and other fossil fuels, helped produce the climate crisis.

The summarising concept for this process of expending energy to get energy, I call Energy Return on Energy Input. It has many other names, but I think that one is reasonably clear. If your energy return on the energy you input to get the new energy, keeps declining you are getting less and less excess energy to do things with.

The situation is even worse if you are burning fuel and contributing to the instability which makes adaptation, production and extraction more difficult.

A Comment on Capitalist Economic Theory

In capitalist economic theory, the damage to the system from both extraction and pollution are counted as “externalities.” That is, a deliberate decision is made not to factor them into economic equations and descriptions, despite their obvious effects.

This is one reason why capitalist economists cannot see that ‘growth’ with its necessary increased destruction and pollution cannot be continued forever, or used as a tool for ‘recovery’ – they don’t factor in the relevant information.

They ignore the fundamental processes of the economy.

Covid Questions

July 28, 2021

I’m not a medical doctor. So this is not medical advice. Some of it may only be relevant to Australia. I can’t discuss laws all around the world.

1) Deaths by flu are virtually non-existent, what is going on?

Covid and flu seem to have the same vectors of transmission. Attempts to shut down or slow Covid will shut down and slow flu. If flu has more or less disappeared as a serious illness over the last couple of years it shows that flu is less contagious than Covid.

2) Flu deaths are being counted as Covid deaths

In a bad flu year in the US you get about 60-90 thousand deaths. This is about a tenth of the Covid deaths, so even if people were counting all flu deaths as Covid deaths it probably would not make that much difference to the figures.

3) Covid is just flu. Its not that bad.

Covid is not like flu. Covid causes blood clots, liver failure, heart failure, stroke etc. It may stop cell differentiation, so that cell replication fails, and the cells do not function. This is one reason why Covid is relatively easy to misdiagnose; it can look like other serious diseases.

4) Ivermectin is a inexpensive and safe drug for Covid which is being censored and undermined by the establishment.

Is Ivermectin being undermined because it works, or because it does not and its a scam, or a mistake? In large doses (as say suitable for a horse) it can cause ataxia (lack of muscular co-ordination), coma and death in humans.

5) There is no promotion of inexpensive and safe methods of natural immune boosting.

It will be great when Western Medicine researches natural immune boosting techniques, but they don’t. This is not a specific conspiracy about Covid. And how would we test whether the techniques worked against Covid anyway? This is a classic medical ethics problem. If the techniques don’t work we might kill people, or make people off guard and complacent and help spread the disease.

6) People get vaccinated after having Covid, that just shows the Vaccination is suspicious.

Vaccination, as far as I know, is not compulsory, so there is no need to accept the vaccine if its offered. However, beliefs and actions may have consequences. Accepting the consequences of your beliefs may be inconvenient for you, as always. It is up to you.

Furthermore, I understand, it is still unclear how much immunity a person develops to future infections from having Covid. If the experience was deeply unpleasant a person might want to take a vaccine for an immune boost. Some people might take the vaccine to try and help recover from ‘long covid’. Up to them.

7) Dr. Bossche, or someone or other, has a theory that a mass vaccination campaign during a pandemic may create more dangerous variants that are immune to the vaccine together with a vaccine degraded natural immune system. Why is this not discussed?

Clearly it is being discussed by some. Is Dr. Bossche a researcher into Vaccines with any experience of treating Covid in humans?

One possible reason there is little discussion amongst medicos is because he has little real experience and has not made a good case. We still do not know enough about Covid and what kind of immune response is necessary to defeat it.

There is always a case for letting lots of people die until those who survive are generally good at handling the disease. This is effectively the Trump, Boris Johnson method and was I think Sweden’s. It has not worked that well, yet. Its up to you what kind of death rate you accept, but be careful to specify it before you start the experiment, oh and win people over to the possibility of their death and that death rate…

The reality is that there will always be doctors and scientists who disagree with the mainstream. This does not necessarily mean they are correct. Just as youtube videos may not be better sources for ‘facts’ than sane mainstream news.

8) There is no investigation of the virus source

The virus source does not tell us much about how the virus behaves in humans, and is usually irrelevant. Anyway plenty of people seem interested in tracing it to shift blame to somewhere else.

9) Covid is an engineered virus

I’m not anywhere near well informed enough to tell, but the Chinese are not the only people doing bio-warfare.

If it was a Chinese bioweapon, then the release was clearly accidental (no one should be stupid enough to deliberately release a bioweapon in their own country), and we need to overcome the virus, not think blame will help. Incidentally, the Chinese and others have blamed the virus on a release by the US military (in China) which is equally plausible (and an act of war), but does not help us solve the problem either.

In either case it might be a good idea to make sure we stop and prosecute biowarfare research, or make the facilities absolutely idiot proof – which is probably impossible.

10) Masks are not effective. Why do I have to wear one?

If you want to go out and mix with people then yes in some places you have to wear a mask. In other places, say out in a park, you may not have to. You are free to stay at home or in your car and not wear a mask. Using masks is an attempt to stop you spreading Covid, or an attempt to lower your chance of catching Covid and taking up medical time space and equipment, from those who need it.

With Freedom comes responsibility.

I have also heard people argue that the virus is so small it will get through mask, and also argue that Oxygen cannot get through the masks, which is odd given Oxygen is much smaller than the virus. Viruses can also come in water droplets which don’t pass through the mask. Which is why you should keep masks clean.

Masks are not 100% effective. They reduce infection and spread rates, not stop it. They are better than nothing, and not terribly inconvenient.

11) The vaccine contains microchips which program your brain, etc….

This implies a massive set of scientific and technological breakthroughs, which it would be hard to conceal. They could be able to do this, but it is still a massive breakthrough. Known useful chips are not small enough to pass through needles, and we don’t know how to control the human brain by electronics. We can do a much better job through propaganda and repetition. It is really much easier to convince people that mind controlling microchips are going to be injected into them, than it is to actually do it.

12) Covid just benefits Pharmaceutical companies

Yes some pharmaceutical companies will make vast profits out of this. That is the way capitalism works. If you object to this, then object to capitalism, its profiteering and its supposed free markets.

It was Trump who started the hurry to get a vaccine and indemnified pharmaceutical companies against damage, in order to get the testing done quickly. So he is partly to blame for any problems that arise through that quicker than usual testing of a new vaccine.

13) How do we prevent something like this happening again?

The best way of preventing the recurrence of a global pandemic apart from a working and compulsory quarantine for all overseas travellers, is to shut down global travel, especially quick global travel. Which would be a useful step in terms of reducing emissions and disturbing the upper atmosphere as well.

How to become a tyrant

July 27, 2021

See also: Techniques of Fascism

There are a number of equally important procedures, so these are not in order of importance. A tyrant has to work at all of them simultaneously if possible.

1) Creating fear is important. Unfortunately, this is not a trait which enables you to recognize tyranny. There are things to be frightened of which have to be dealt with as a society – the black death, fascism, take over of the state by the wealthy, war with people who really do threaten you, etc..

2) Creating a narrative that the tyrant can solve the problems, nobody else can, and that anyone who disagrees is a traitor. No policies are really needed except vague things like “make the country great again”, “free the workers”. Common narratives involve Nationalism (we are the best in the world just by being born here, we have the best culture, the best people, etc. we must fight outsiders who corrupt us), Militarism (we need to fight those who would fight us and we need discipline), hatred of some relatively powerless minority (they are evil) – all of these narratives give the ‘good’ members of society something to join with the tyrant in fighting.

3) Stirring anger. You are being oppressed by university professors, feminazis, Bill Gates, black racists, radio hosts, shopkeepers, etc… The f$%%n rude opposition never gives you a break they can’t listen to reason, they are stupid, weak, red neck slabberdicks… Shock people, numb them, crush empathy with the others….

4) Cultivating blame. The subhuman evil ones are to blame for everything bad; the Chinese, the Jews, BLM, Antifa, people with green eyes, etc…. it is always good to have an easy source to blame for everything that goes wrong.

5) Excluding people – foreigners, outsiders, gay people, women whatever…. that way you become superior, and closed off from other ideas. Make the categories between the “we group” and the “out group” as sharp as possible. There is to be no overlap which allows people to talk out of place, or which allows sympathy.

6) Constantly telling people how wonderful the tyrant is. What a genius he is (and its usually a he). How he knows everything. How the tyrant has mysterious sources of knowledge. How decisively he acts. How the tyrant is one with the people, even if he is a billionaire, or a monk….. How the tyrant is holy. How he is the tool of God, or of Providence etc. with the implication that anyone who objects to the tyrant is objecting to God’s choice. Have pictures of the tyrant everywhere.

7) Lying constantly. This helps set all the other points in motion. Lying constantly, and moving from crisis to crisis can cause excitement and involvement. If people have to show their loyalty by believing whatever they are told by their side, then they loose the ability to think critically and just go along with the mob and the party media. This is kind of the ‘Orwell point’.

To know and not to know, to be conscious of complete truthfulne­ss while telling carefully constructe­d lies, to hold simultaneo­usly two opinions which cancelled out, knowing them to be contradict­ory and believing in both of them, to use logic against logic, to repudiate morality while laying claim to it, to believe that democracy was impossible and that the Party was the guardian of democracy

Truth is what helps the tyrant and his party, but this truth is eternal, and everyone who cannot directly see this truth is to be condemned.

Being focused on the latest crisis (always caused by the other side), also distracts people from a coherent criticism of the tyrant.

8) Controlling some Media. Take control over, or alliance with, significant sections of the media, so that by repetition, people think that the lies are the truth, and the leader really is wise, interested in them, and being constantly attacked by the evil ones. Have wealthy allies set up ‘think-tanks’ which spout the tyrant’s truth. Partly this is about controlling and reinforcing the narrative. Aim to discredit oppositional media. Threaten oppositional media. All history leads to the Tyrant, and the rebellion against the old order. More Orwell:

And if all others accepted the lie which the Party imposed—if all records told the same tale—then the lie passed into history and became truth. ‘Who controls the past’ ran the Party slogan, ‘controls the future: who controls the present controls the past.

9) Instigating big social projects. It is a good idea to have some magnificent social projects which honour the tyrant and give people the sense that something good is happening that they can be involved in: making living space; building buildings that show the glory of the Nation; having mass political rallies or displays; building the economy; fighting for the revolution; preparing to defend the Nation. People get annoyed if they have to sit at home, and the economy goes downhill as well – much better they get out as a group…

10) Law is a matter of the Tyrant’s will. The tyrant should honour the law and the constitution in speech, but remember these are only effective as conventions and interpretations secondary to the Tyrant’s will. The law is whatever the tyrant says. If the tyrant obstructs justice, threatens election results, or threatens those who would hold them to account then, in the US for example, this can be excused as ‘free speech’. If no one prosecutes a crime, or they excuse the tyrant, then what is allowed to happen is the new interpretation and the new law, and the only people who object will be traitors. Repeat that the tyrant’s will expresses the true beliefs of those who wrote the laws and the constitution.

11) Violence is an old fashioned necessity for tyranny. Always say the other side used violence first. But hit enemies decisively. It does not matter who, just make examples. Sort them out later. This will also help people to stay loyal, because they know it goes from expulsion to violence quickly so they will follow their instructions and probably think the violence they participate in is simply revenge on their oppressors and gives them freedom from previous and superseded restrictions. They are free!

12) Manufacturing Enemies. This is implicit all the way through these overlapping points, and if I had to say which is the most important point it is this one.

If you persuade people that a particular group of people are the enemies of every true, patriotic person, then you have frightened them, got them angry and ready to use violence. They will refuse to listen to those others, blame them, approve the violation of conventions because of necessity, approve lying and so on. You have sharpened divisions between the ‘we-group’ and the ‘out group’, and applied it to every aspect of life. People become trapped in the language of war. Anything is fair, anything is acceptable to preserve their own lives and the lives of others of the right type. The enemies are out to get you. The enemies attacked you first, by definition. They cannot be trusted. They cannot be dealt with. You have to go along with the tyrant even if you don’t like him, too much is at stake not too. Criticism of the tyrant is evidence of siding with the enemies and betraying the lives of precious others… You are gone.

Tyrants require enemies.

Again the problem is that some level of enmity is always present in reality. This is why the lie appeals to people, it’s based in reality. But usually people inside your own nation are not deliberate enemies, however organized you are told they are, but potential tyranny is organized to prevent people realizing this.

13) [hidden] While being officially opposed to the ruling class (usually a fake ruling class that has no real power), it is a great advantage for the tyrant to side with the established ruling class, as they are usually the wealth elites and can provide money, contacts in the establishment, help bend the laws and constitution, and control at least some of the media to give the tyrant support, and cultivate the lies he needs. This is not always essential, sometimes the rulers can be purged. In either case, eventually the tyrant will establish a new ruling class alongside the wealth elites who are dependent on him and loyal to the project.

Conclusion

These are the processes of tyranny. However, the tyrant eventually has to produce order and predictability, and a sense of progress, so that people can organise their daily lives and hope for the future, or the things that undermine tyranny will come into play too destructively.

War helps postpone the Tyrant’s problems, and is a logical consequence of the process of constructing the tyranny. However, war rarely allows stability – especially war without compromise which is what tyranny encourages. Modern warfare in particular enables destruction, but seems to make it hard to hold gains. The expenses of holding onto gains, usually outweigh the gains being made.

I’d like to say, that while easy to start, a tyrannical state is eventually doomed, unless it can learn to leave people alone most of the time and live in peace. Hitler failed at the latter, the Romans and the Chinese Emperors largely succeeded. Mussolini was doomed the moment he allied with Hitler and joined World War II. The Russians succeeded for a while, and Putin succeeds most of the time.

Nuclear power???

July 27, 2021

Warning this is largely an excerpt from articles credited below. I hope to do some research to fill it out.

1) Increasing the number of nuclear power plants (currently around 450 globally) increases the risk of a catastrophic accident caused by an extreme weather event (bushfire, typhoon, floods, tsunami) and becomes more likely with increasing and wilder climate change.

2) Nuclear plants consume vast amounts of water, a diminishing resource in a warming world, and uranium mining pollutes groundwater.

Half of the world’s uranium mines use a process called in-situ leaching. This involves fracking ore deposits then pumping down a cocktail of acids mixed with groundwater to dissolve the uranium for easier extraction. This contaminates aquifers with radioactive elements. There are no examples of successful groundwater restoration.

Butler

3) Nuclear plants take at least 7-10 years to build – we need solutions that can be operational now so that fossil fuels can be turned down now.

4) A 2017 report by WISE International estimates, that over its life cycle, nuclear power produces 88-146 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour of electricity. Wind power emits 5-12 grams.

5) If we replaced 70% of global energy use with nuclear power we’d run out of recoverable uranium in six years.

6) Nuclear plants are very expensive to build and often suffer cost blow outs along the way. Renewables are much cheaper and more reliable.

7) Nuclear power is a precursor to nuclear weapons. More countries with nuclear power means more countries with the potential to produce nuclear weapons. The second Iraq war, plus the leaving-alone of North Korea, have that nations need weapons of mass destruction to deter bigger States such as the US.

8) Nuclear waste remains radioactive for millions of years and there’s still no safe way to store all of it, or to maintain responsibility for that period of time.

In the 1970s, the US army built a concrete cap to seal away 3.1 million cubic feet of radioactive waste on Runit Island, which is part of the Marshall Islands. Today, rising sea levels threaten to bring down the entire structure, releasing the radioactive waste into the lagoon. The US government has refused to help, saying it’s the Marshall Islanders’ problem now.

Butler

9) Uranium mining is unsafe for the environment and workers.

10) In 2009 the European Commission found that about 70% of uranium used in nuclear reactors comes from Indigenous lands. Mining means even more dispossession and destruction for them.

11) Nuclear power is a centralised power source that requires lots of up-front capital and a large distribution grid, and massive taxpayer subsidy. Wind and solar provide opportunities for local councils and local communities to build facilities that are tailored to local needs, possibly independent from the grid and community controlled.

Originals: Peter Sainsbury Sunday environmental round up. Pearls and Irritations 11 July 2021

Simon Butler 10 reasons why climate activists should not support nuclear. Climate and Capitalism 23 June 2021

‘Development?’

July 21, 2021

I wonder if we can still use the word ‘development’?

This is because ‘development’ has been a word that has excused much abuse of the world, and much harm.

While ‘development’ clearly has had many good consequences, such as better medical attention, longer average life spans and so on, it has also been the term for the change in a ‘nations’ orientation from working with the ecology and people, to unrestrained use of coal, massive hydropower, industrial farming, mining, over-fishing, deforestation, militarisation and so on. It has not been an unmitigated good.

Development formed a track which nations were almost forced to take into significant levels of destruction to gain their place in the modern world, and avoid more colonialist imperialism from others. It is a form of ordering which produces a disorder which is often easy to ignore or dismiss, because of the good being attempted.

One of the moral dilemmas of the last 20-30 years has focused on the argument as to whether India and China, were excused in the massive and dangerous amounts of emissions they released, and ecological destruction they engendered because they were ‘developing’. Objection by the developed world could easily be seen as imperialist and interfering, and as aiming to try and prevent them gaining power and influence and helping their people out of poverty.

Similar events have happened in South America, where forests have been stripped to boost development, and this too has affected the world. The Amazon forest is so devastated, that it may now be releasing more CO2 than it stores.

Development has led to massive pollution in countries and dispossession of people who lived well with forests.

Indeed, development seems to seek sacrifice. Who is it that that gets removed, or suffers so the nation may develop and become powerful? Are people who resist the changes to their landscape reduced to being mere ‘backward’ ‘obstacles’, who can be treated with patronisation, contempt or brutality? Is development a site of ‘class war’? Or even of ‘race war’ when, as in Australia, the Aboriginal people are continually dispossessed for development (even sometimes for development elsewhere in the world – a frequent argument seems to be that our fossil fuels are being sold to charitably help development and end poverty).

Likewise some development of Renewable Energy can also operate in the same way as development through coal, although perhaps less destructively in the long term. This should be born in mind to avoid ill-consequences.

Development has grown to include destruction, when it should involve consultation and political involvement of those who are being developed, and change of path when (or before) the destruction begins to have an effect.

But if development was to be abandoned as a term for attempts at improvement, what should replace it, that does not have these conventions around it?

Climate change in the Marshall Islands

July 20, 2021

Recently a colleague suggested I read Peter Rudiak-Gould’s article published in 2014. “Climate Change and Accusation: Global Warming and Local Blame in a Small Island State”. Current Anthropology 55(4): 365-386.

This is a wonderful article. It might be out of date now but it suggests how we can learn from the inhabitants of the Marshall Islands in terms of their response to Climate Change. There is far more to the article than I am going to cover, so read it yourselves if you can…

Rudiak-Gould begins by pointing out there are two traditions of climate change blame in the West:

  1. Some are more at fault than others, usually the industrialised or industrialising world
  2. Everyone is to blame. Humanity is self-destructive. With the implication there is not much we can do alone.

The Marshall Islanders are clearly not to blame for Climate Change. They contributed 0.0002% of world CO2 emissions in 2008. Yet it is (was?) common for the Islanders to clearly take on the blame. People rarely mention the culpability of other nations for their severe climate problems, and insist they have to do something about their own problems before facing the world. One person, for example, says

“How can we ask the bigger nations for help, when we are [also] a contributor to climate change?”

p.368

While they agree they make a contribution to climate change, they don’t think they have much ability to affect climate change in total. Rudiak-Gould writes:

“It is never suggested that Marshall Islanders can stop climate change, only that they contribute to it…”

p.371

They don’t have delusions of grandeur, and the idea is not a defense, against action.

Rudiak-Gould explains this situation, by seeing it as related to a wide spread realisation of a decay in traditional life, which they see as the fault of the Islanders themselves: “We follow American culture;” “we have too many things from outsiders… We don’t grow our food anymore.”

RG writes, that for the Islanders Climate change is “the final proof of modernity’s folly, [and] a powerful inspiration to revitalize older ways.” By saying they are responsible, they reassert cultural continuity and distinctiveness, and a course of action.

They are using recognition of their responsibility for climate change to help themselves, not just trying to solve the problem.

Taking responsibility is not an “empty performance.” Islanders try to reduce dependency on foreign oil through solar; restart traditional shoreline management practices; stop throwing plastic onto the beaches and into the sea, and aim to take control over their society’s cultural future.

Taking responsibility says they have a right to speak to each other and to the world. It champions local citizen action, and challenges the dominance of the state, high tech and elite high science, all of which assume people know little and cannot act by themselves.

Taking responsibility also undermines assumptions that a nation cannot act, through ‘people power’. It shows even a small nation can act for itself, and by itself, without any constricting fear that action will ruin the economy or destroy a people’s way of life – it even assumes that a way of real and desirable social life can be revitalised and improved by climate action.

Finally, it challenges common ideas in the rest of the world that pacific islanders are the victims of others. They assert they can help the world and themselves, even if they cannot solve the problem completely, and their action sets an example others might follow.

Taking responsibility and acting the best we can casts doubt on the supposed necessity for a top down solution driven by State or business occurring first. It asserts climate change can be affected by people taking on their own responsibility in a practical way. We do not have to wait for the State or for business to get on board and act.

In a relatively large State, like the ones most of the people reading this will live, this local responsibility and action is possibly the only way that the State will get the message that the people care enough for it to take on the forces that oppose action.

The Marshall Islanders set forth an agenda we can all learn from.

There is no such thing as climate denial????

July 18, 2021

There seems to be a number of people making the rather silly argument that there is no such thing as climate denial any more [not that the article referenced actually does that]. Presumably people do this to imply that as long as a person says “climate change is occurring” then no matter what else they say, or agitate for, they are supposedly not denying reality – they can be trusted.

‘Accepting climate change’ without accepting the causes or consequences of climate change, seems to be a strategic assertion to do nothing, or do little to challenge the current circumstances causing climate change (Greenhouse gas emissions). This may be accidental, or it may be because people can lie strategically…. This is life. So how do we tell if people are doing something we might call climate denial?

First off

What does acceptance of climate change involve?

  • Acceptance that the agreement of the vast majority of climate scientists about the evidence for climate change is our best guide to climate reality. This scientific agreement, on the whole, asserts:
  • a) Climate change is happening
  • b) Climate change is harmful and serious and getting increasingly serious
  • c) While there are many possible causes, the main cause is the growth in greenhouse gases (GHG) from: the burning of fossil fuels; concrete use and manufacture; and agriculture
  • d) The most important of these causes is the burning of fossil fuels
  • e) We cannot predict the exact course of climate change, because it forms a set of interlinked complex systems. For example, some places such as the UK, may get colder if the gulf stream changes its pattern. However we can make the general prediction climate change, as it is progressing, will be intensely disruptive.

Scientists can be wrong of course, but they usually squabble over areas of doubt. If there is doubt, then there is not that much agreement. On the other had people who deny what is agreed at present, can be wrong as well as opposed to leading the new science.

What acceptance of climate change leads to is the realisation that climate change forms a major threat to the continuance of current forms of social organisation, through many different pathways

  • collapse of food supplies
  • problems with water supplies
  • increased death from heat
  • wild weather
  • increased droughts
  • increasingly destructive floods
  • rise of sea levels and loss of habitability of islands and low lying coastal areas
  • intense storms, cyclones and hurricanes.
  • etc…

These events will pressure economies, supply chains, security of living and so on. The cumulative effects will be very hard to deal with. Again the exact form of collapse in different places is very hard to predict, because of the complex system problem

However, we can predict pretty solidly, that the effects will not be good for humans.

This is the basic level. Then there is the level of action. Are people attempting to act on this knowledge? Are they attempting to reduce GHG emissions, encouraging GHG reductions to the best of their ability, or to render GHG less necessary? If not, then they are effectively denying what they are supposed to be recognising.

This border between recognition and action, means that climate change denial is a much more sprawling beast.

Climate change denial involves some of the following:

  • Assertions that the ‘consensus’ of climate scientists is unreal (as there is supposedly lots of dissent about climate change), or the result of widespread fraud.
  • Lots of reference to non-climate change scientists, or non-scientists, who disagree with the ‘consensus’
  • Assertions that science should not be about agreement, when the absence of large scale dissent in the field, implies there is no recognised cause for disagreement over the presence and source of climate change
  • Assertions that climate scientists are conspiring to impose a dictatorial left wing government on the world [attempts to make climate change political rather than an agreement as to evidence]
  • Assertions that climate change is not happening
  • Assertions that climate change has nothing to do with human actions: “There’s been billions of years of climate change,” without explaining why if climate change is natural, humans cannot be a factor in causing it, and we should not do anything any differently
  • Assertions climate change is happening, and there is an anthropogenic component, but there is no point lessening the effect of that component.
  • Assertions that climate change is happening slowly and is nothing to worry about, or that we will easily adapt
  • Assertions that climate change will be beneficial – it will increase plant growth, or stop deaths from cold etc. [While Climate change may appear beneficial in some places, it will not be in general, because of the systemic disruption, and the imbalances generated]
  • Assertions that extreme, highly unusual, or unprecedented weather events are absolutely normal and happen every so many years
  • Assertions that tiny increases in CO2 levels cannot significantly change the climate
  • Assertions that we can continue to burn fossil fuels with no ill effects
  • Assertions that we can increase the burning of fossil fuels with no ill effects
  • Assertions that burning fossil fuels ‘we’ have sold somewhere else in the world, is irrelevant to our situation
  • Attempts to enforce, or encourage, the emission of greenhouse gas emissions
  • Attempts to argue that reduction of ’emissions intensity’ is wonderful even if GHG emissions increase
  • Attempts to avoid targets for GHG emission reduction
  • Assertions that action against climate change will harm the economy and should be performed in such a way that it does not affect the economy at all
  • Assertions that everyone else should act before we act to prevent climate change
  • Some people may claim they are doing something to hinder climate change, but their actions reveal that they are not, or their actions increase GHG emissions. Yes people lie.
  • Attempts to silence or threaten climate scientists, or prevent public servants from mentioning climate change
  • Attempts to remove climate data from public websites

Resolution

Acceptance of climate change, means acceptance of climate action

At a minimum, that means:

  • Steady reduction of fossil fuel use.
  • Stopping new fossil fuel use and new fossil fuel mines, unless it can be shown that newness reduces the total amount of GHG emissions in practice
  • Steady reduction of all other sources of greenhouse gas emissions
  • Regeneration of ecologies
  • Encouraging change in lifestyles that need fossil fuels

There are many other solutions which may need to come into play, but these are basic factors in moving towards a solution, and which come from the scientific agreement about what is happening.

Supposed acceptance of climate change but rejection of climate action, trying to hide the lack of climate action, or trying to maintain or increase fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions means that a person does not accept the reality of climate change and its causes. They are essentially in denial, whatever they might want to call it.

In this sense, whatever they say, the Australian Coalition Federal government is engaging in climate denial. It does not act to reduce GHG, and it encourages more emissions by supporting more coal and gas power and exports. It pretends extreme weather events or bushfires [1], [2] are normal, and denies the Great Barrier Reef or the inland river systems [1], [2], [3] are in unprecedented trouble. The Canadian government is similar.

Disorder again – or against eternal order

July 14, 2021

This is just a reply to a comment on the previous blog post, lifted up into the main blog. This answer is slightly longer, with some deletes…

It does seem correct that people like Plato and most Christians theologians, saw the world as messy, but they denied that this was real reality. They possibly even fled from the idea it was real reality. Real reality, they appear to have asserted, had to be extremely ordered and unchanging. That is one reason, I suspect that they became idealists. There was little evidence of this ultimate order in the material world so they had to find it in the intuited real spiritual world; in God and/or the Archetypes.

This meant that everyday life, material life, real life was a fraud or at best a fall from reality, or a shadowy image of reality (the cave argument). The disorderly world is nothing (non-existent) when compared to the totally orderly ‘real’ reality they imagined. Our disorderly or contingent life was to be despised, other than as a preparation for reality. The lives of those who did not prepare for the eternal order were of no consequence. Change was threatening; change meant failure, imperfection and unreality, and was to be denied as being real. God was perfection and perfection could not change – in their eyes. Neo-Platonism, Gnosticism, self mortification and ecological destruction, all seem to be consequences of this position.

This may stem from what Plato implies was Socrates’ method.

Socrates would ask for a definition of something, say ‘justice’, and demonstrate that another person’s definition was incoherent, and then say that, because of this disorder of incoherence, that person, however functional they were as a citizen, knew nothing at all. The implication of Socrates procedure is that justice has to be the same in every situation, or at worst, share similarities with every other incidence of justice, or it was misunderstood and unreal. The Sophists disagreed with this approach, which is why they are Plato’s villains. To the sophists, virtue and justice seem to have been situational and variable, depending on the people, the problems, and those judging the case. They could list different virtues, rather than make them the same. In other words they did not accept that something had to be the unendingly the same to be real.

If we accept the Sophist argument the whole platonic edifice falls over, and we could realise we are just dealing with a particular view of how words should work, not of practice or reality.

While Sophists could cope with the disorderly justice of the moment and the world, for Plato reality had to be uniform, eternal and orderly. And, as we cannot find real orderly justice, it too is only real in the archetypal realm of static order, or in a static authoritarian State which enforces lack of change. For Plato, surprise is not beneficial, and control is always good, when it is control by the Good.

This even infiltrates supposed philosophers of change. As far as I understand Hegel, which is not much, it appears to me that the change process of the dialectic stops when Geist reaches its pinnacle of unchanging understanding, order and reality, famously (?) in the philosophy of Hegel himself. That fixity constitutes supremacy is emphasised, because even Marx seems to think that the dialectic stops when the worker’s paradise eventuates. Whitehead, despite proposing ‘process’ and dynamics as the fundamental of reality, has to invent “eternal objects” to feel complete and to preserve the required lack of change.

While I clearly agree with the proposition that reality is (usually) not predictable in depth, I do not see how this is compatible with eternal sameness or eternal order. It may be that humans are incapable of predicting accurately at all times, but God should be able to know the prediction if the reality is orderly. None of these orderly people seem to suggest that God’s reality is chaotic, or beyond God’s understanding. So, according to them, we have to have faith in the order and justice, even if it is imperceptible. And this again proves the unreality of the everyday world and the superiority of the ideal.

Evolution and complexity theory suggest that the world makes itself up as it goes along, in massively complicated and sometimes accidental interactions which do not head in a particular direction. If that is the case, then order is not guaranteed beyond the situation or the moment. Order is flowing rather than eternal. If we accept this, then we then may well come to re-recognise the beauty of the creative and destructive disorder which the imagined eternally, unchanging, orderly reality was supposed to protect us from. That this interaction produces some order, and paths taken my limit future paths, does not show that there is only order. The apparent reality that my lungs seek air would not seem to be a belief or proposition my lungs hold and operate by. They just do what they evolved to do. And if there is no air, then I die. The lungs fail, and the disorder and joy of life terminates.

The orderly philosophers seem to have seen mathematics as a symbol of divine real predictable order, not of the intermixture of incompleteness and chaos. Probability theory would not be acceptable to Plato as a fundamental rule of order, any more than it was to Einstein, who could not believe that god threw dice; their assumption is that the word is non-probabilistically ordered, or that given all the information we should be able to predict what would happen.

What we call disorder is interesting and part of any life that is real.

Skepticism and order

July 12, 2021

I’ve been interested in what happens when you don’t posit uniform order as the prime directive of the universe for a fair while now.

Almost all philosophies after Plato have been obsessed with imposing an order on reality, and seeing that as a guarantor of truth. This even affects the idea that a good scientific academic article presents a clear and coherent single argument, usually with a single causal factor/process. However, I am skeptical of the proposition that what we call order is inherent to the universe, is equivalent to truth, is unchanging, and that what we call disorder is negligible. This proposition seems contradicted by evolution to begin with. The world seems to be in constant flux and change, but I’m not dogmatic about this. I’m equally skeptical of the proposition that the universe is entirely random. Skepticism of one does not have to lead to the other.

I often find that people cannot understand what I’m getting at, which is interesting as its all rather simple.

  • There seems to be no perfect order in the world which is not disrupted or which does not self-disrupt.
  • Prediction always seems to have limits. The further ‘away in time’ the prediction refers to, the more likely it will turn out to have been incorrect. This is clearly demonstrated by most science fiction, and by economics.
  • Perfect order could be the same as death, as mess and unpredictability is associated with life.
  • To explain most events we may need multiple perspectives. Sometimes we may even need a single minded perspective.
  • Most, if not all, human understanding seems to involve degrees of uncertainty. Probably even mathematics, as attempts to find an impersonal non-subjective basis for mathematics, seem to have failed; but again my understanding is not certain.
  • Uncertainty should be recognised if at all possible. There may be specifiable or non-specifiable probabilities to the likelihood of accuracy.
  • We should not just be skeptical about things we already don’t believe, or don’t want to believe. I have noticed that many self-called skeptics are not skeptical at all about some political dogmas. “Directed skepticism” is not skepticism, it seems to function as another way of trying to impose order on the world.

‘Pre-platonic’ philosophy attracts me, because I don’t think it is as obsessed as post-Platonism with order as ‘truth’ or ‘life’. Take Heraclitus who asserts eternal flux and struggle (apart from the Logos, the meaning of which is unclear), or Sophism which asserts the importance of rhetoric to understanding. I was intrigued to find sophism seemed far more sophisticated than Plato claimed it was – that his philosophy seemed based on a lie, which made me even more skeptical of Platonism.

My interest in Skepticism came about because it often is a skepticism about order and its importance. I began with David Hume, who is extremely hard to classify, and then went back again to its apparently underlying ‘base’ of Pyrrhonism. Looking at Pyrrhonism I have learnt many other things such as how the desire for theoretical order can produce misery and suffering – skepticism and uncertainty as a practical philosophy of life – which transformed my views of the possibility of skepticism. I also like the crossing between East and West because of Pyrrhonism’s apparent connection to Buddhism. Taoism is skeptical about humanly imposed orders and stability. Chavarka or Lokāyata is an Indian philosophy seemingly skeptical of spiritual order.

Order and chaos may need to be balanced as the Western Philosopher Michael Moorcock seems to be arguing, but perhaps without making them forces as such….

How can ‘Conservatives’ own Environmentalists?

July 12, 2021

Believe it or not, this is a real question from someone.

“Owning” is a weird term. I gather, from the way it is generally used, it means completely destroying the arguments and existence of the people you are opposing. It seems a violently anti-civic position and hence an anti-real-conservative position.

But let us assume it can mean winning over the other side…. in which case it is easy.

Conservatives could show they are more concerned about conserving the environment than they are concerned about conserving corporate profits.

They could openly wonder whether environmental and climate science might be correct enough for us to accept it in general.

They could ask whether humans can keep destroying the global ecology (or God’s creation, if you prefer) forever with no consequences.

They could wonder whether burning fossil fuels at the rate we are doing is necessary or helpful to conservation.

They could think about opposing new drilling sites for oil, new mines for coal, new gas fields, especially new extreme sites like coal tar, deep ocean drilling etc, and ask people to make do with what we already have. This would mean that some companies might have to change, which could make it awkward, but sometimes you have to stand up for what its right.

They could wonder if leaving environmentalism to the market has worked well enough over the last 30 years, and wonder whether, if it works in some cases, which are those cases and why.

They could wonder if markets better at producing upheaval than they are at producing conservation?

They could propose constructive solutions that they know are likely to be acceptable to the population in general and plausible. Not, for example, massive upgrades of nuclear power, or carbon capture and storage, which sadly are enormously expensive, seem to take a long time to set up, and if they have disasters have maximal disasters.

They could wonder why the environmental solutions my conservative government is promoting include: tree clearance; koala destruction; removing more water from almost dead rivers; more coal power and more methane power; more money for carbon capture; while opposing emissions targets and renewable energy targets and pretending the Great Barrier Reef is not in decline. This does not seem like environmentalism of any sort whatsoever.

Conservatives could decide that while it is difficult to be virtuous and go first, the developed world, including the US, the UK and Australia, should go first, because it is the right thing to do, and sets an example. If a group of countries won’t do it, then you have to stand up for the right thing anyway, rather than mutter about losing advantage, or it being unfair.

So all Conservatives have to do, is to take environmentalism seriously as a conservative task, engage in dialogue with other people, and there you are… We might even get something done.