Archive for July, 2022

Monbiot argues…..

July 31, 2022

This is a set of quotations and arguments from George Monbiot, with an occasional paraphrase. Monbiot is easily the most important journalist who writes on climate change, power and economics, and his work is well worth your perusal, and hopefully this will help. If there are copyright issues, please let me know and I will remove this.

Monbiot. Photo from the Guardian

Summary

Complex Systems can change quickly to a new state of equilibrium – events cascade and reinforce the change – this is what the global eco-system, Gaia if you like, is facing.

The media is engaged in distraction, and blame shifting, partly this could be because the situation is frightening, and partly because we are ruled by a plutocracy that resists change, or awareness of change.

Plutocracy may lead to avoidance even in the powers that be. this can be summarised by the idea of “learning to live with” climate or Covid. This “living with” usually seems to mean ignoring the problem, invoking magic, blaming the relatively powerless, and not learning at all.

Plutocracy leads to confusion, even when governments try to do something, as they also try and support the plutocracy that is causing the problems. For instance, they avoid stopping new fossil fuel development, or removing regulations that support fossil fuel companies.

Much of the technology promoted and imagined as helpful is magical as well. It may not even exist, but will still solve our problems. Carbon Credits and biofuels are good examples of technology which is supposed to help, but which may make the problems worse.

On top of everything else we have a world food crisis. The food system is complex, but has the kind of structure which indicates it is likely to collapse altogether if there is much stress.

Finally we quickly look at a few solutions: basically supporting democracy against plutocracy and getting rid of climate debt to free poorer countries to deal with their own climate crises.

Complexity and mess of information

[Complexity is important, as I keep hammering] Monbiot writes that people who study complex systems have discovered that they behave in consistent ways. It doesn’t matter whether the system is a banking network, a nation state, a rainforest or an Antarctic ice shelf; its behaviour follows certain mathematical rules. In normal conditions, the system regulates itself, maintaining a state of equilibrium. It can absorb stress up to a certain point. But as stress escalates, these same properties start transmitting shocks through the network. [The system] suddenly flips: a small disturbance can tip the entire system over its critical threshold, whereupon it collapses, suddenly and unstoppably. It passes a tipping point, then falls into a new state of equilibrium, which is often impossible to reverse.

If the nodes behave in a variety of [different] ways, and their links to each other are weak, the system is likely to be resilient. If certain nodes become dominant, start to behave in similar ways and are strongly connected, the system is likely to be fragile. [This happened leading up to the 2008 financial crisis, in banking].

Human civilisation relies on the current equilibrium states. But, all over the world, crucial systems appear to be approaching their tipping points. If one system crashes, it is likely to drag others down, triggering a cascade of chaos known as systemic environmental collapse. This is what happened during previous mass extinctions.

[One] way of telling whether [the complex system] is approaching a tipping point [is that its] outputs begin to flicker. The closer to its critical threshold it comes, the wilder the fluctuations. What we’ve seen this year is a great global flickering, as Earth systems begin to break down. The heat domes over the western seaboard of North America; the massive fires there, in Siberia and around the Mediterranean; the lethal floods in Germany, Belgium, China, Sierra Leone – these are the signals that, in climatic morse code, spell “mayday”.

[However, our media are not talking about the problems. They engage in distraction and the pursuit of ratings] Tune in to almost any radio station, at any time, and you can hear the frenetic distraction at work. While around the world wildfires rage, floods sweep cars from the streets and crops shrivel, you will hear a debate about whether to sit down or stand up while pulling on your socks, or a discussion about charcuterie boards for dogs. I’m not making up these examples: I stumbled across them while flicking between channels on days of climate disaster.

Most political news is nothing but court gossip: who’s in, who’s out, who said what to whom. It studiously avoids what lies beneath: the dark money, the corruption, the shift of power away from the democratic sphere, the gathering environmental collapse that makes a nonsense of its obsessions.

This distraction has taken up things like anti-litter campaigns [shifting the packaging industry’s deliberate creation of waste onto consumers] personal carbon footprint [instead of industry footprint, again shifting responsibility to relatively low emitters]. The oil companies didn’t stop there. The most extreme example I’ve seen was a 2019 speech by the chief executive of the oil company Shell, Ben van Beurden. He instructed us to “eat seasonally and recycle more”, and publicly berated his chauffeur for buying a punnet of strawberries in January. [In other words, none of the problems were apparently related to his company’s business. It was the general public, that was the problem. Wealthy polluters have to be protected from anyone doing anything about the pollution they emit.]

[Personally the question arises is this avoidance because of climate change being a scary “turn off” and they fear audiences will go elsewhere, is it because the media is owned by the same class of people as those who profit from climate change, who don’t want people to get the idea that people could have power over the corporate sector, or is it because there is always a corporately sponsored think tank which can point to something optimistic or to the evil consequences of doing something?].

Plutocracy

[We live in plutocracies, and its sometimes pretty overt] The Sunday Times [recently] reported that people who have donated at least £250,000 to the Conservative party have been invited to join an “advisory board”, with special access to the prime minister, cabinet ministers and senior government advisers. They have used this access to lobby for changes in government policy. The 14 identified members of the group have a combined wealth of at least £30bn, and have donated £22m to the Conservatives. The group and its agenda had hitherto been kept secret. 

We have also been told that the Conservative party is helping its donors to apply for key government positions.

The interests of the very rich are not the same as the interests of the nation. We should never forget what the billionaire stockbroker Peter Hargreaves, who donated £3.2m to one of the leave campaigns, said about Brexit: “We will get out there and we will become incredibly successful because we will be insecure again. And insecurity is fantastic.”

[The real] power is oligarchic capital, [and that bends the way that we respond and the ways that the corporate media reports the crises]

Plutocracy leads to UK Water Crisis

[Monbiot suggests that] Absence, [and lack of action from government,] is what the party donors paid for.

[R]ecent prime ministers and their governments have prepared us for none of the great predicaments we face. They have looked the other way as the water companies failed to commission any new reservoirs since they were privatised in 1989, and allowed astonishing volumes of that precious commodity we call treated drinking water – 2.4bn litres a day on current estimates – to leak away. It’s a carelessness so grand that it feels like a metaphor. Instead of forcing them to stop these leaks, the government has allowed these corporations to pump the rivers dry: the living world, as ever, is the buffer that must absorb failure and greed.

So determined is the government to absent itself from decision-making that it cannot even institute a hosepipe ban: it must feebly ask the water companies to do so. Most, with an interest in ensuring their metered customers use as much as possible, have so far refused. Nor have the companies been obliged to upgrade their sewage treatment works. The combination of over-abstraction and sewage dumping is devastating. The water in the upper reaches of some of our chalk streams – remarkable ecosystems that are almost unique to England – now consists of nothing but sewage outflows and road run-off. During this long period of regulatory absence, the privatised water firms have piped £72bn in dividends into the accounts of their shareholders.

To [plutocrats], the duty of care is an abomination. Ten years ago next month, Liz Truss launched Britannia Unchained,… [that blamed] everything going wrong in the UK to “a diminished work ethic and a culture of excuses”. Of her four co-authors, three – Priti Patel, Kwasi Kwarteng and Dominic Raab – are frontbenchers in the current government… They blamed inequality and the lack of social mobility in this country not on the patrimonial spiral of wealth accumulation and the resultant rentier economy, but on “laziness”. Citing no meaningful evidence, they maintained that “once they enter the workplace, the British are among the worst idlers in the world”.

[And to return to a previous point;] When governments are contractually incapable of solving their people’s problems, only one option remains: turning us against each other [giving them a distraction].

Magic and Avoidance

[Avoidance is common in plutocracy, as the plutocrats are part of the problem.] We have a new term for doing nothing: “learning to live with”. Learning to live with Covid means abandoning testing, isolation and wearing masks in public places. Living with it, dying from it, what’s the difference? The same applies to climate breakdown.

[With climate] our primary effort should still be to decarbonise our economies, to prevent even worse impacts. We also need to brace ourselves for the heating [and resultant weather] that’s now unavoidable.

[However,] government policy is to wish away these problems [and shift responsibility on to ordinary people] Doubtless we’ll soon be told we need to take “personal responsibility” for ensuring our homes are not flooded and our power lines are not destroyed by storms.

There is no learning involved in “learning to live with” [hence its easy and makes no demands personal or political]….

A few days ago, a senior executive at the Institute of Economic Affairs suggested that instead of preventing climate breakdown, we could simply “build sea walls”. It is not just denial we’re up against. It’s a belief in magic.

Confusion and Avoidance

[Magical Thinking encroaches everywhere, and often involves ignoring contradictions. Many government policies seem confused. While they want to be thought to be taking action, they don’t want to challenge the plutocrats or the fossil fuel companies]

MPs with no discernible record of concern for poor people, and a long record of voting against them, suddenly claim that climate action must be stymied to protect them. [Or that we must sell poorer countries our fossil fuels to reduce their poverty.]

An analysis by conservation charity WWF suggests that, while the last UK budget allocated £145m for environmental measures, it dedicated £40bn to policies that will increase emissions.

It is still government policy to “maximise economic recovery” of oil and gas from the UK’s continental shelf. According to the government’s energy white paper, promoting their extraction ensures that “the UK remains an attractive destination for global capital.”

Boris Johnson appears to be on the point of approving the development of a new oilfield – the Cambo – in the North Sea.

Since [Joe Biden] pledged to ban new drilling and fracking on federal lands, his administration has granted more than 2,000 new permits. His national security adviser has demanded that Opec+, the oil cartel, increase production, to reduce the cost of driving the monstrous cars that many Americans still buy.

[Laws and regulations are written to support this corporate death spiral.] A UK oil company is currently suing the Italian government for the loss of its “future anticipated profits” after Italy banned new oil drilling in coastal waters. Italy used to be a signatory to the Energy Charter Treaty, which allows companies to demand compensation if it stops future projects. The treaty’s sunset clause permits such lawsuits after nations are no longer party to it, so Italy can be sued even though it left the agreement in 2016.

There is no realistic prospect of preventing more than 1.5C of global heating unless all new fossil fuel development is stopped. In fact, existing projects need to be retired. Nor can we achieve the government’s official aim of net zero emissions by 2050. [But magically we can work against climate change and keep on with more fossil fuels. that way we don’t have to struggle against the plutocracy.]

Technology and Magic Avoidance

[Other than not facing up to the problem, stopping doing destructive things can be useful…]

Renewable power, for instance, is useful in preventing climate chaos only to the extent that it displaces fossil fuels.

[However, fossil fuel companies are rich] and fossil fuels will become stranded assets only when governments insist that they be left in the ground. [So that probably won’t happen for a while yet.]

[Again there is magic. A reasonably well known economist Oded] Galor claims, without providing the necessary evidence, that “the power of innovation accompanied by fertility decline” may allow us to avoid a difficult choice between economic growth and environmental protection. [We will also develop] “revolutionary technologies” that will one day rescue us from the climate crisis. [Just like that. No problem. Technology will always be found to solve every problem, when we need it.]

[People] appear to believe that the transformations necessary to prevent systemic collapse can happen without political pressure or political change. [So we don’t have to trouble THE Market or face up to the corporations who temporarily benefit from from not paying the cost of their pollution and destruction.]

[Magic innovations would be nice, but we still need to stop burning fossil fuels, just in case they don’t eventuate. If they do eventuate, we just have to deal with less pollution.]

Carbon Credits: Magic or Fraud

[Carbon credits are an idea which depends on] removing historic carbon from the air, and counteracting a small residue of unavoidable emissions once we have decarbonised the rest of the economy.

[However], they are being widely used as an alternative for effective action. Rather than committing to leave fossil fuels in the ground, oil and gas firms continue to prospect for new reserves while claiming that the credits they buy have turned them “carbon neutral”.

The French company Total is hoping to develop new oilfields in the Republic of the Congo and off the coast of Suriname. It has sought to justify these projects with nature-based solutions: in Suriname by providing money to the government for protecting existing forests, and in Congo by planting an area of savannah with fast-growing trees.

If the drilling goes ahead it will help to break open a region of extremely rich forests and wetlands that sits on top of the biggest peat deposit in the tropics, potentially threatening a huge natural carbon store. The rare savannah habitat the company wants to convert into plantations to produce timber and biomass has scarcely been explored by ecologists. It’s likely to harbour a far greater range of life than the exotic trees the oil company wants to plant. It is also likely to belong to local people though their customary rights… In other words, the offset project, far from compensating for the damage caused by oil drilling, could compound it.

Last year, forests being used as corporate offsets were incinerated by the wildfires raging across North America [showing how precarious, this form of carbon store is, in the climate fossil fuels are producing.].

Oxfam estimates that [even if carbon credits worked] the land required to meet carbon removal plans by businesses could amount to five times the size of India – more than the entire area of farmland on the planet. And much of it rightfully belongs to indigenous and other local people, who in many cases have not given their consent. This process has a name: carbon colonialism.

A better strategy would be to spend money on strengthening the land rights of indigenous people, who tend to be the most effective guardians of ecosystems and the carbon they contain. {But that would prevent land from being alienated and purchased (or stolen) by corporations and other wealthy people for their own use.]

Food Crises

[On top of climate, we seem to be developing food problems through capitalism]

The number of undernourished people fell from 811 million in 2005 to 607 million in 2014. But in 2015, the trend began to turn. Hunger has been rising ever since: to 650 million in 2019, and back to 811 million in 2020. This year is likely to be much worse.

Last year, the global wheat harvest was bigger than ever. Astoundingly, the number of undernourished people began to rise just as world food prices began to fall. In 2014, when fewer people were hungry than at any time since, the global food price index stood at 115 points. In 2015, it fell to 93, and remained below 100 until 2021.

[Food forms a complex system, and as remarked above if nodes behave similarly there is a problem. In this case the] features that might impede systemic collapse (“redundancy”, “modularity”, “circuit breakers” and “backup systems”) have been stripped away, exposing the system to “globally contagious” shocks.

On one estimate, just four corporations control 90% of the global grain trade [and] just four crops – wheat, rice, maize and soy – account for almost 60% of the calories grown by farmers.

[Food companies nowadays can depend on just-in time supplies with no redundancy or stores, this is easily disrupted by collapse in supply through company problems, war, bad weather or eco-crises – all more likely in climate change.]

If so many can go hungry at a time of unprecedented bounty, the consequences of the major crop failure that environmental breakdown could cause defy imagination. The system has to change.

The world now is in a major food crisis. Climate breakdown has begun to bite. Heat domes and droughts in North America and storms and floods in Europe and China last year damaged harvests and drove up prices. By February, the cost of food was 20% higher than a year earlier.

Ukraine and Russia produce nearly 30% of the world’s wheat exports, 15% of the maize (corn) and 75% of the sunflower oil. Altogether, they generate about 12% of the calories traded internationally. [This obviously has effects given the current war in Ukraine]

Just as European countries allowed themselves to become hooked on Russian gas and oil, they are also highly reliant on Russian and Belarusian fertilisers. About one-third of the nitrogen and two-thirds of the potassium imported by the UK and western Europe come from Russia and Belarus, and we can expect them to use this dependency as another economic weapon.

The Middle East and north Africa are highly reliant on Ukrainian and Russian grain. Almost 40% of Yemen’s wheat is grown in Russia and Ukraine. Already, millions there are close to starvation. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, relies on the warring countries for roughly 70% of its imports.

Biofuels add to the food problem

[Adding to the precariousness of food supplies we have agricultural land and crops being used to make biofuels, hence reducing the world’s food supplies again.]

Between 2019 and 2021, farmers in England raised the area of land used to make biogas by an astonishing 19%. Now 120,000 hectares (300,000 acres) is ploughed to grow maize and hybrid rye for biogas, which is marketed, misleadingly, as a green alternative to fossil gas. The reopening of a bioethanol plant in Hull that will turn wheat into fuel for cars is likely to take another 130,000 hectares out of food production.

About 450 hectares of land is needed to feed a biogas plant with a capacity of one megawatt. By contrast, a megawatt of wind turbine capacity requires only one-third of a hectare

The food used by the UK alone for biofuels could feed 3.5 million people. If biofuel production ceased worldwide, according to one estimate, the saved crops could feed 1.9 billion human beings.

The investigative group Transport & Environment shows, the land used to grow the biofuels consumed in Europe covers 14m hectares (35m acres): an area larger than Greece. Of the soy oil consumed in the European Union, 32% is eaten by cars and trucks. They devour 50% of all the palm oil used in the EU and 58% of the rapeseed oil. Altogether, 18% of the world’s vegetable oil is turned into biodiesel, and 10% of the world’s grains are transformed into ethanol, to mix with petrol.

Since 2000, 10m hectares of Africa’s land, often the best land, has been bought or seized by sovereign wealth funds, corporations and private investors.

[We might be told the biiofuel plants will run on waste, but] Invariably, as soon as the market develops, dedicated crops are grown to supply it.

The UK government, “responding to industry feedback”, increased its target for the amount of biofuel used in surface transport. Worse, it justifies continued airport expansion with the claim that planes will soon be able to use “sustainable” fuels. In practice this means biofuel [and more magic and fantasy]

There’s a limit to how much we can eat. There’s no limit to how much we can burn.

Changing the plutocracy

Society is a complex system, and complex systems can never be sensibly and benevolently controlled from the centre. A centralised, hierarchical system means concentrated power, and concentrated power favours concentrated wealth. [And concentration of power and contacts may favour system collapse.]

Politics is “the active engagement of free citizens” in their own affairs. [Politics is a normal part of everyday life as we organise ourselves to do things together].

Bookchin proposed a structured political system, built on majority voting. It begins with popular assemblies, convened in opposition to the state, open to anyone from the neighbourhood who wants to join. As more assemblies form, they create confederations whose powers are not devolved downwards but delegated upwards. The assemblies send delegates to represent them at confederal councils, but these people have no powers of their own: they may only convey, coordinate and administer the decisions handed up to them. [possible examples include Rojava in Syria and the now defunct participatory budgeting in Porto Alegre, southern Brazil. This kind of proposal might end the problem that] we have no opportunity to engage creatively with each other in building better communities.

Until we change our political systems, making it impossible for the rich to buy the decisions they want, we will lose not only individual cases. We will lose everything.

Debt and solution

[There is a massive global debt crisis] Between 1990 and 2019, external debt in… the poorer nations rose on average from roughly 90% of their GDP to 170%. The pandemic has accelerated the crisis: 135 out of 148 nations in the poorer world are now classed as “critically indebted”.

An analysis in the journal Global Environmental Change suggests that $10tn of value is extracted from poorer countries by richer ones every year, in the form of raw materials, energy, land and labour. That’s 70 times as much money as would be needed to end extreme poverty worldwide….

A report from Green New Deal suggests that debt has been used by the World Bank as a means of obliging Senegal to allow US, Australian and British companies to exploit its oil and gas. In Argentina, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reportedly pushed for the development of the giant Vaca Muerta shale gas basin, using similar leverage. Impoverished and coerced by debt, poorer nations have little choice but to allow destructive industries to exploit them. 

An analysis by Oxfam suggests that 85% of the Covid loans made by the IMF to poorer nations were connected to austerity programmes: the fund is using the power of debt to push nations into cutting wage bills and spending less on public services and support for poor people.

Rich nations owe a massive climate debt to poorer nations: for the devastating impacts of the fossil fuels we have burned. Yet they have no intention of paying for the loss and damage they have caused. Poor countries are deemed to owe massive financial debts to the rich nations, yet they cannot pay them without destroying their economies and their ecosystems.

The proposal is simultaneously to cancel both the climate and the financial debts, liberating the money poorer nations need to take climate action.

[This sounds good, but it would, like any other climate action which cuts energy, would probably produce some kind of degrowth. However, degrowth will undoubtedly happen when the cost of fixing climate damage starts becoming a significant fraction of the profit made from provoking that damage.]

[Needless to say, it is probable that the plutocracy will oppose this measure, as they or the wealth economy will suffer, and most people will never get to hear of it.]

Conclusion

There is hope. But we have to be prepared to take on the Plutocracy and their promotion of harmful magic and distraction. We have to slow emissions, and keep fossil fuels in the ground. We can’t phase them out immediately, but we can agitate for more democracy, degrowth, and debt reduction as part of a strategy to help poorer countries.

Women, Dragons and Dominators

July 25, 2022

This is a summary of, and commentary on, an article by Eliza Daley called “Let There Be Dragons” Resiliance 22 July 2022

Let’s be clear I don’t know enough about these subjects to be sure what the author is saying is completely correct, but its interesting and I think makes a set of really important points….

The Problem

The fundamental question we might face is ‘What is collapse?‘ That is a big question, because much of what ‘some people in Western society’ see as collapse might actually be beneficial continuity and change, and hence dominant explanations for collapse and its consequences might be completely wrong.

Daley instances common ideas like:

  • The Human inability to include the long-term future in our decision-making
  • The Human proclivity toward increasing consumption of energy especially when we find windfall sources
  • The Human tendency to increase complexity as we ‘develop’
  • The Human tendency towards hierarchy and unsustainable resource use, because we are all profit maximisers, and because it is the best way of organising at scale…

She points out that this view of ‘humans’ just happily corresponds to the views of the dominant parts of our society, who are largely privileged white males. They:

still largely speak in terms of collapse when they encounter change in the historical record, especially a change from a complex hierarchical system or a high-resource-use system to a simpler, dispersed way of meeting needs that confines itself to ecological boundaries.

Collapse without Collapse?

She points out that after the “collapse” of the Roman Empire, it seems Roman culture and ideals still spread, and we all know the Eastern Empire went on for another 1000 years, if that is your mark of failure…

However in the west the system of domination broke down.

But this is not at all the same thing as a collapse of society. It is not the end of a culture or a system of meeting needs. The part of a system that breaks first when limits are strained — that top tier of the parasitically powerful — often has very little to do with average culture and nothing at all to do with needs.

Then I think the Feudal estates built up, so perhaps the change is not that optimistic, but its hard to tell – there is a lack of records, and historians tend to be more interested in the ‘barbarian invasions,’.

She also points to the “collapse” of Chaco Canyon Culture, sometime in what westerners call the Medieval warm period, which may well still continue (with some changes). The people change their lives to live within the constraints of a changing environment. Indeed she indicates that many peoples of the area might occasionally walk away from an oppressive affluence into something quieter.

However, it may need to be pointed out that dominator-free societies are not always good at defending themselves against dominator societies and dominator States, other than by hiding, walking away or ‘passing’ as ‘normal’.

Resisting ‘Collapse;’ Supporting Domination

However, when some people cannot face change in power or wealth structures, or in knowing their place, or are extremely nervous about change, they may find it hard change voluntarily or even imagine such voluntary change. Sadly “those who are [currently] sunk deepest into this crisis of creativity are also those who are in charge.” Our political systems, largely seem to operate as if increasing domination (by which ever group the supporters belong to) is the answer to our collective problems, when it simply sets up further and more intense conflicts.

It is possible that those who ‘have’ power, and its commonsense about domination, constrain the ability to change – partly because power seeks expansion, and thus is “quite likely to rapidly destabilize its environment, wiping itself out along with whatever trips over it”, and partly because they cherish their privilege which is threatened by our collective problems. Holders of domination like the world to be predictable, and submissive, so it can be controlled.

Power-over is deadly, and not merely in a touchy-feely metaphorical fashion. It is evolutionarily maladaptive. It does not arise often, and when it does, it quickly exterminates itself.

The Dominators in our society define society as functional only if it is empire, and only if people can be told what to do.

Many, many complex stateless, artistically expressive societies have existed – that is societies without dominators. Sure they may have hierarchies, but these hierarchies seem shallow and impermanent, and the societies appear to work to make sure they stay that way. We may need to work to move in that direction, as the dominators’ empires collapse.

And while it is not an ideal solution, the dominators in Western societies seem to have figured out that they needed to share power with ordinary people after and during the second world war – and that led to the economic and social mobility boom of the 50s to early 70s, and the rise of liberation movements and anti-colonial movements, producing what the dominators called the “crisis of democracy.” This problem seems to have been solved by returning power to the dominators under the guise of neoliberal ‘free market’ ideologies.

Eco-feminism, or releasing those who already work

Daley makes an eco-feministpoint:

We are all aware of the problems that this culture has with women…. But we tend to be blind to the potential, the hope embodied in women because the dominant culture actively suppresses all about women that is positive, strong and independent of that dominant culture….
Give those who already do the work of meeting human needs the freedom and support to do that work unhindered, and — miracle of miracles! — the work gets done! Needs are met! If we want to clean up the world, then let women get on with that.

I’m a bit more cynical than that, but it is a good point – let people be free to choose the way forward. Creativity is not always in the dominator groups. I also want to remark the obvious, that there are men who are entirely in empathy with these aims – but women in the USA seem increasingly to be under threat of constraint, which needs to be stopped. Curtailing female creativity is not a step forward. The point is that humans are not without virtues, not without shared culture, not without inner resources, not without creativity, and they are not without wanting to be living simply, humanly and without being dominated, and that domination and steep hierarchy is not always functional, always useful or even necessary. Indeed it is often harmful unless perhaps fighting other dominators. Sometimes all that we need to do, is to remove the restraints, which might not be visible until the movement starts.

She further points out that this work is already happening. People are trying to build a society based in relationships and turning away from the idea that society requires domination, within the ‘collapse’ of that dominator society.

Women seem to be notably present in community energy organisations, at least the organisations I know, and they are talking about the importance of getting the community together and free of external domination by electricity companies, so that they can develop in ways of their own choosing. That in itself, is significant of the new ways that might be emerging.

State of the World?

July 19, 2022

We seem to be facing a climate crisis already. We don’t have to wait for the future. This description is obviously not complete, and only deals with 2022.

Australia

There are severe floods in Eastern Australia again. The Climate Council calls them “one of the most extreme disasters in Australian history… causing tragic loss of life and submerging tens of thousands of homes and businesses.” They point to speed, severity and “rain bombs”.  Yet this flooding occurred on the East Coast at the the same as Perth on the West Coast “smashed its previous record number of summer days at or over 40 C.” The Council recommends “Australia triple its efforts and aim to reduce its national emissions by 75% by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035.” The government is currently refusing to budge on its targets of 43% cuts by 2030 and net zero by 2050. This does not seem enough.

While the handling of the last floods may have been better than the previous floods, the country does not seem to be preparing for more events. Greg Mullins, former commissioner of Fire & Rescue NSW, Climate Council member, and founder of the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action states:

Australia lost a critical decade of preparation under a former federal government that repeatedly failed to heed the advice of scientists and experts… We are now in a position where we’re ill-equipped to get ahead of disasters and nowhere near where we should be to address the climate crisis.

Greg Mullins Australia is woefully unprepared for this climate reality of consecutive disasters. The Guardian 5 July 2022

Recently the NSW government scrapped orders to consider flood and fire risks before land zoning and building. The previous Federal Government delayed the release of a report into the condition of Australia’s environment until after the election. This has just been released. It appears to show a large number of newly threatened animals, with the country having one of the highest rates of species decline in the developed world, large scale forest clearance (not sure if this includes through the bushfires), a crisis in the Murray-Darling river system which is vital for agriculture and inland life, repeated bleachings of the Great Barrier Reef, increased ocean acidity, sea level rise affecting low-lying areas, such as the Kakadu wetlands, loss of soil carbon, and so on. The new Minister for the Environment stated that “The Australian Land Conservation Alliance estimates that we need to spend over $1 billion a year to restore and prevent further landscape degradation”.

The president of the Australian Academy of Science, Prof Chennupati Jagadish, said the report was sobering reading and the outlook for the environment was grim, with critical thresholds in many natural systems likely to be exceeded as global heating continued

Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn State of the environment: shocking report shows how Australia’s land and wildlife are being gradually destroyed The Guardian Tue 19 Jul 2022 03.30 AEST

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology states:

Australia has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950 and every decade since then being warmer than the ones before. Australia’s warmest year on record was 2019, and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the nine warmest years.

State of the Climate 2020

It appears that Australia is already close to exceeding the 1.5C increase, that was an acceptable target.

Staying under 1.5C, or even setting a good example, is unlikely, as Australian emissions have recently increased in most areas of the economy, with the exception of electricity.

  • Increased transport emissions (up 4.0%; 3.5 Mt CO₂-e) reflecting a continuing recovery from the impacts of COVID restrictions on movement
  • Increased emissions from stationary energy (excluding electricity) (up 3.3%; 3.3 Mt CO₂-e) driven primarily by an increase in fuel combustion in the manufacturing sector
  • Increased emissions from agriculture (up 4.2%; 3.1 Mt CO₂-e) due to the continuing recovery from drought
  • Increased fugitive emissions (up 1.8%; 0.9 Mt CO₂-e), resulting from increased venting and flaring in oil and gas.

The latest list on the Department of Industry Science and Resources (p.8) Lists 69 new coal projects and 45 new gas and oil projects in various stages of approval. This could change with the new government, but it seems unlikely. Rupert Murdoch’s The Australian reports the new Prime Minister as saying new coal and gas projects could ­proceed if they stacked up financially and passed environmental approvals and “Policies that would just ­result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an ­increase in global emissions, not a decrease” [Albanese: coal ban won’t cut emissions, The Australian, 21 July 2022: 4.]. This was a conventional line repeated by the Minster for Environment: “Other countries that are burning Australian coal are responsible for reducing the pollution when they’re burning that Australian coal. That is how the global accounting for carbon pollution reduction works.” It also appears that Australian based Fossil Fuel companies have also been announcing massive profit increases. For example, Woodside announced a 44% increase in revenue. Santos an 85% increase despite only increasing production by 9%. Whitehaven Coal announced that it received a “record” average price for coal over the second quarter in 2022, over 5 times what it charged the previous year.

The weather conditions elsewhere are also ‘difficult’.

UK

There is the current heat wave in the UK, with record temperatures, melting runways, warnings for people not to commute, trains cancelled and so on. The UK Met Office issued its first-ever Level 4 “extreme heat” warning indicating that even the fit and healthy could fall ill or die, not just the high-risk and vulnerable groups. The hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK of 40.2C at Heathrow. This broke the previous record of 38.7C set in 2019.

Dr Eunice Lo, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, said: “The climate has warmed since 1976 significantly. We have a record going back to 1884 and the top 10 hottest years have all occurred since 2002…. This hasn’t happened before; it is unprecedented…. By definition these are new extremes.”

Helena Horton UK is no longer a cold country and must adapt to heat, say climate scientists. The Guardian 18 July 2022

The UK Met said:

The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence.

UK prepares for historic hot spell. Met Office News. 15 Jul 2022.

To add to the Strangeness. The normal source of the River Themes has dried up, and the river now starts 5 miles downstream from that point. There is a drought.

Apparently some UK climate scientists said that they had not expected these kinds of temperatures in the UK this early. Yet the simultaneous Conservative Party leadership ballot, has had candidates accused of ignoring climate change. The two finalists Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have both expressed caution. Sunak said “If we go too hard and too fast” toward net zero “then we will lose people,” and Truss said she wanted to “find better ways to deliver net zero” that won’t “harm people and businesses” [1]. Truss has generally voted against climate measures.

EU

Fires are burning in France, Spain, Portugal, Croatia and Hungary. At least 12 thousand of people have been evacuated from the Gironde in south-western France. [Later reports suggest 37,000] According to the French weather channel La Chaîne Météo 108 absolute temperature records were set. Some Nuclear Reactors where turned down as the cooling water was too hot. In Spain temperatures reached 45C and 3,000 people were evacuated from the town of Mijas due to fires. The arrival of 30C temperatures in Spain has “advanced between 20 and 40 days on average in 71 years, according to a climatological study by” the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) “the climate of Spain no longer It is as we knew it: it has become more extreme” the four seasons in Spain will end up being two: summer and almost summer (Via Google Translate). Fires have also broken out near Athens [more] fanned by gales and heat. A hospital and the National Observatory of Athens were evacuated, and homes were burnt down.

The French Prime Minister warned that France is facing its “most severe drought” on record. “The exceptional drought we are currently experiencing is depriving many municipalities of water and is a tragedy for our farmers, our ecosystems and biodiversity.” Apparently more than 100 municipalities were not able to provide drinking water to the tap and had to be supplied by truck. Portugal having recorded its highest July temperature is nearly completely in severe or extreme drought.  In Italy, the Po is 2 metres lower than normal, and increased salinity is threatening rice and shellfish production. Further reports suggest that the Rhine river is 7 cm off being unsuitable for river traffic and this will affect trade all through the continent, and add to the stress coming from the heat, the energy shortage, and the war in Ukraine.

Andrea Toreti of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre [sais] “There were no other events in the past 500 [years] similar to the drought of 2018. But this year, I think, is worse.”

Henley, J. Europe’s rivers run dry as scientists warn drought could be worst in 500 years. The Guardian, 14 August 2022

Only 3% of homes in Germany and the UK have air-conditioning,  5% of residential homes in France, 7% in Italy. The heat waves suggest that there will also be a wave of power consumption as people start to install cooling in their homes. Radhika Khosla, associate professor at the Smith School at the University of Oxford, made the obvious point about needing air conditioning in a heated world:

“The global community must commit to sustainable cooling, or risk locking the world into a deadly feedback loop, where demand for cooling energy drives further greenhouse gas emissions and results in even more global warming.”

Fiona HarveyAshifa KassamNina Lakhani, and Amrit Dhillon Burning planet: why are the world’s heatwaves getting more intense? The Guardian 19 June 2022

There is also likely to be struggles over available energy in Europe over the winter. Frans Timmermans the vice-president of the European Commission has warned the EU could descend into serious strife if there wasn’t enough energy for heating in winter, and “If we were just to say no more coal right now, we wouldn’t be very convincing in some of our member states and we would contribute to tensions within our society getting even higher.” So “can we make further commitments on reducing our emissions given the situation?” The answer he was implying was ‘no’.

The heat and fires are likely to affect farming and food availability. Mustard for example is short in France because of excessive heat in Canada where much of their mustard seed is grown. An estimated 15 to 35% of the wheat crop in states close to Delhi such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh – what is known as India’s “wheat bowl” – has been damaged and the government banned wheat exports.

USA

In the US

Nearly 90 large fires and complexes have burned  3,100,941 acres in 12 states. Six new large fires were reported, two in Alaska and one in Alabama, Idaho, Montana and Oklahoma. More than 6,600 wildland firefighters and support personnel are assigned to incidents across the country

National Interagency Fire Center National Fire News 18 July 2022 [this link is likely to be lost due to updates]

The amount of the USA being burnt seems to be increasing… By early July the Alaskan fires had burnt over 2 million acres, more than twice the size of a typical Alaska fire season.

the weather factors – the warm spring, low snowpack and unusual thunderstorm activity – combined with multidecade warming that has allowed vegetation to grow in Southwest Alaska, together fuel an active fire season…. [The fires] burn hotter and burn deeper into the ground, so rather than just scorching the trees and burning the undergrowth, they’re consuming everything, and you’re left with this moonscape of ash

Rick Thoman Alaska on fire: Thousands of lightning strikes and a warming climate put Alaska on pace for another historic fire season. The Conversation 5 July 2022

In California there are large fires almost every year nowadays. The ‘Oak fire’ in Mariposa county has led to 6000 people being evacuated.

On Saturday, the Oak fire sent up a pyrocumulus cloud so large it could be seen from space…. Kim Zagaris, an adviser for the Western Fire Chiefs association, told the LA Times: “When you get a pyrocumulus column, it can pick up a pretty good-sized branch and actually draw it aloft into the column and in some cases drop it a mile or two miles down the head of the fire, which starts additional spot fires.”….. Felix Castro, a meteorologist with the US National Weather Service, said the region had experienced 13 consecutive days of triple-digit heat with relative humidity of 8% or 9%. Vegetation had reached near-record dryness, he said, in what scientists estimate to be the most arid 22-year period in at least 1,200 years.

Gabrielle Canon Edward Helmore, California Oak fire remains uncontained as Al Gore warns ‘civilization at stake’. The Guardian 25 July 2022
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/acres-burned-usa

There were unexpected heat waves in Texas and Arizona with daily temperature records, and record overnight temperatures. Some cities opened cooling centres for people without air conditioning. Texas warned people to cut electricity use or face blackouts. “Extreme heat is America’s leading weather-related killer, and Phoenix in Maricopa county [Arizona] is the country’s hottest and deadliest city.”

Water shortage’s are common in Western USA, due to a long term drought. In Mid August, the US Department of the Interior declared the first-ever tier 2 water shortage for the Colorado River, so Arizona, Nevada and Mexico have to reduce their water usage even more from 1 January next year. Not only is the ecology of the river basin threatened, but humans will face disrupted water supplies and diminished hydro electric capacity. This has already increased tensions between the different states.

The Democrats have not been particularly successful getting climate measures passed, and Biden has proposed new offshore oil drilling off Alaska and in the Mexican Gulf.

‘Sub-continent’: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Earlier in the year there were heat waves in Pakistan and India showing the highest temperatures on record. According to the Meteorological Department Delhi has recorded temperatures of 42C (and above) on 25 days since summer began. Temperatures of about 50C were seen in May, while India had 71% less rain than normal in March and there was 62% less rainfall in Pakistan. People from the World Meteorological Association wrote:

The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan, and to have triggered an extreme Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in northern Pakistan and forest fires in India. The heat reduced India’s wheat crop yields, causing the government to reverse an earlier plan to supplement the global wheat supply that has been impacted by the war in Ukraine. In India, a shortage of coal led to power outages that limited access to cooling, compounding health impacts and forcing millions of people to use coping mechanisms such as limiting activity to the early morning and evening… Because of climate change, the probability of an event such as that in 2022 has increased by a factor of about 30.

Zachariah et al Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely

Bangladesh has been having the worst floods in Sylhet in a century. Thousands of people are displaced, towns have been washed away. According to the UN, an estimated 7.2 million people across seven districts have been affected. Hospitals are inaccessible due to flooding. Over half of the regions medical clinics are underwater. “An estimated 60,000 women are pregnant in the affected region, with more than 6,500 births expected to take place in July”, and the lack of medical resources also means that waterborne diseases are likely to sweep through the population.

India has apparently used the heat wave and failing power sources to reduce environmental compliance rules for coal mines, such as holding public consultations before mines operate at greater capacity. The government plans to increase coal production to 1.2 billion tonnes, an increase of over 400m tonnes, over the next two years

Latin America

Conditions where not good in Latin America early this year

In mid-January, the southern tip of South America suffered its worst heat wave in years. In Argentina, temperatures in more than 50 cities rose above 40°C, more than 10°C warmer than the typical average temperature in cities such as Buenos Aires. The scorching heat sparked wildfires, worsened a drought, hurt agriculture, and temporarily collapsed Buenos Aires’s electrical power supply. 

Rodrigo Perez Ortega Extreme temperatures in major Latin American cities could be linked to nearly 1 million deaths. Science 28 June 2022

China

In China, at least 86 Chinese cities in eastern and southern parts of the country had issued heat alerts. in the city of Nanjing, officials opened air-raid shelters for locals to escape the heat. Reports from earlier in the year suggest that Premier Li Keqiang announced a goal of 300 million tons of new coal production in 2022, in addition to the 220 million tons added last year.

Africa

Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are facing lack of rainfall and a drought emergency [1], [2]

The Poles

Temperatures at Vostok station relatively near the South Pole were 15C hotter than the previous all-time record. At the North Pole temperatures were 3C higher than average. Science Daily reported research which showed that “the Arctic is heating up more than four times faster than the rate of global warming.” (See also here) The ice melts reveal more ‘dark sea’ which will absorb more heat and, in a positive feedback loop, lead to higher temperatures and more ice melts

State of the global climate

The World Meteorological Association State of the Global Climate 2021 report’s ley points include:

  • The global mean temperature in 2021 was around 1.11 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average…. The most recent seven years, 2015 to 2021, were the seven warmest years on record.
  • Global mean sea level reached a new record high in 2021, rising an average of 4.5 mm per year over the period 2013–2021.
  • Greenland experienced an exceptional mid-August melt event and the first-ever recorded rainfall at Summit Station, the highest point on the Greenland ice sheet at an altitude of 3,216 m.
  • Exceptional heatwaves broke records across western North America and the Mediterranean. Death Valley, California reached 54.4 °C on 9 July, equalling a similar 2020 value as the highest recorded in the world since at least the 1930s, and Syracuse in Sicily reached 48.8 °C.
  • Hurricane Ida was the most significant of the North Atlantic season, making landfall in Louisiana on 29 August, equalling the strongest landfall on record for the state, with economic losses in the United States estimated at US$ 75 billion.
  • Deadly and costly flooding induced economic losses of US$ 17.7 billion in Henan province of China, and Western Europe experienced some of its most severe flooding on record in mid-July. This event was associated with economic losses in Germany exceeding US$ 20 billion.
  • Drought affected many parts of the world, including areas in Canada, United States, Islamic Republic of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Turkmenistan. In Canada, severe drought led to forecast wheat and canola crop production levels being 35%–40% below 2020 levels, while in the United States, the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River fell in July to 47 m below full supply level, the lowest level on record.
  • Hydro-meteorological hazards continued to contribute to internal displacement. The countries with the highest numbers of displacements recorded as of October 2021 were China (more than 1.4 million), Viet Nam (more than 664 000) and the Philippines (more than 600 000).

These weather patterns seem entirely consistent with the idea that climate change had arrived and that weather is getting more chaotic and disruptive.

Cost of Damage?

It is clearly not possible, as yet, to estimate the damage for 2022, but Munich RE, (a provider of reinsurance, primary insurance and insurance-related risk solutions) has estimated the costs for the ‘milder’ year of 2021:

  • In 2021, natural disasters caused overall losses of US$ 280bn, of which roughly US$ 120bn were insured
  • Alongside 2005 and 2011, the year 2021 proved to be the second-costliest ever for the insurance sector (record year 2017: US$ 146bn, inflation-adjusted) – overall losses from natural disasters were the fourth-highest to date (record year 2011: US$ 355bn)
  • Hurricane Ida was the year’s costliest natural disaster, with overall losses of US$ 65bn (insured losses of US$ 36bn)
  • In Europe, flash floods after extreme rainfall caused losses of US$ 54bn (€46bn) – the costliest natural disaster on record in Germany 
  • Many of the weather catastrophes fit in with the expected consequences of climate change, making greater loss preparedness and climate protection a matter of urgency….
  • The USA accounted for a very high share of natural disaster losses in 2021 (roughly US$ 145bn), of which some US$ 85bn were insured

Five Final Opinions

Carbon Brief, is an activist organisation, so you may want to ignore it….

We found more than 400 new mine proposals that could produce 2,277m tonnes per annum (Mtpa), of which 614Mtpa are already being developed. The plans are heavily concentrated in a few coal-rich regions across China, Australia, India and Russia.

If they all went ahead, the new mines could supply as much as 30% of existing global coal production – or the combined output of India, Australia, Indonesia and the US.

Yet last month, the International Energy Agency said no new coal mines – nor extensions of existing mines – were “required” in its pathway to 1.5C. A UNEP report last year said coal output should fall 11% each year to 2030, under the same target.

Plans to massively boost coal production are, therefore, incompatible with the 1.5C limit. Alternatively, if global climate goals are to be met, the estimated $91bn of investment in the proposed mines could be left stranded.

Guest post: Hundreds of planned coal mines ‘incompatible with 1.5C target’ Carbon Tracker 10 June 2021

The UN Secretary General to the G20:

The climate crisis is our number one emergency.

The battle to keep the 1.5-degree goal alive will be won or lost by 2030….

But current national climate pledges would result in an increase in emissions of 14 percent by 2030.

This is collective suicide.

We need a renewable energy revolution. Ending the global addiction to fossil fuels is priority number one.

No new coal plants.

No expansion in oil and gas exploration….

Emerging economies must have access to the resources and technology they need.   

Wealthier countries must finally make good on the $100 billion climate finance commitment to developing countries, starting this year. 

We also need a radical boost for adaptation and early warning systems.

Secretary-General’s video message to the G20 Foreign Ministers: “Strengthening Multilateralism” 8 July

Later he said:

Eight months ago we left COP26 with 1.5 on life support.

Since then, its pulse has weakened further.

Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise and ocean heat have broken new records.

Half of humanity is in the danger zone from floods, droughts, extreme storms and wildfires.

No nation is immune.

Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction.

What troubles me most is that, in facing this global crisis, we are failing to work together as a multilateral community.

Nations continue to play the blame game instead of taking responsibility for our collective future.

Secretary-General’s video message to the Petersberg Dialogue 18 July 2022

The Chair of the IPCC, said at the launch of the Working Group II report.

The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a grave and mounting threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.

We are not on track to achieve a climate-resilient sustainable world.

This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. 

Opening remarks by the IPCC Chair at the IPCC-SBSTA Special Event on the Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report Monday, 6 June 2022

Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for the Nature Conservancy in the US and professor at Texas Tech University says:

We cannot adapt our way out of the climate crisis…. If we continue with business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, there is no adaptation that is possible. You just can’t…. Our infrastructure, worth trillions of dollars, built over decades, was built for a planet that no longer exists… Human civilisation is based on the assumption of a stable climate…. But we are moving far beyond the stable range. We will not have anything left that we value, if we do not address the climate crisis

Fiona Harvey We cannot adapt our way out of climate crisis, warns leading scientist. The Guardian 1 June 2022

Concluding comments

Let’s be clear this is only the beginnings of actual observable climate change. Not the end. These events are happening within what was considered the ‘safe range’ of a global average under 1.5C rise. We are continuing to make the situation worse, and there is always a delay….

The need to cut GHG gas emissions and transition to renewable energy quickly appears to begin the only way that present day large scale civilisations can survive. Hence you would think transition might be an urgent priority – although it still seems to be an urgent priority to have more coal and gas supplies.

However, we have several problems, the world is distracted by the ongoing mutating pandemic, the war in Ukraine (and there is no necessity that the war remains contained), is taking money away from climate mitigation and adaptation, and causing shortages of gas which is causing countries to open old coal plants, increase emissions, while also causing food shortages. Tackling inflation by putting up interest rates is likely to cause defaults not only on the housing market, but to countries and companies who are indebted and only just managing, which will likely cause an economic crisis, which will hinder ecological restoration and ambitious plans for energy transformation. The chaotic weather is also likely to disrupt travel and economic production and increase demand for electricity for air-conditioning and cooling, adding to the problems of energy, productive capacity and available money.

Sri Lanka and Green Policy

July 15, 2022

There are a lot of media people (for example: [1], [2], [3]) claiming that one failed ‘experiment’ in Sri Lanka means that we should never change to organic agriculture or follow any Green policies. Sri Lanka is, they say, a dire warning to everyone about becoming Green.

However, that Sri Lanka failed to solve a problem, does not mean the problem is not real, or that chemical fertilisers, pesticides and weed killers are not having “adverse health and environmental impacts” as ex-president Rajapaska said to the UN. Industrialised agriculture does degrade the soil, pollute the waterways (poisoning fish and people), and is a major contributor to greenhouse gases – it releases 13% of the total GHG in Australia. On top of which “Global pesticide use has steadily increased from an estimated 2.3 million tonnes of active ingredient in 1990 to 4.1 million tonnes in 2016“. This could be why there is a world wide collapse in insect populations, and the populations of creatures and plants that depend on them. [See also]

In the UN speech quoted above, Rajapaska also talked about “a wider programme that includes enhancing market oriented inclusive food value chains to reduce rural poverty.” The commentators do not talk about this wider programme. It seems likely a whole collection of policies caused the problems but these particular commentators only focus on the organic farming policies.

it is important to acknowledge that the root cause of the current economic crisis is because of Sri Lanka’s decades long neoliberal programs. And that is what a majority of the Western media won’t cover.

Pitasanna Shanmugathas Sri Lanka Is A Neoliberal Failed State. Columbo Telegraph 22 July 2022

As that article attempts to document, Sri Lanka, went through cutbacks in social welfare and social expenditure, privatisation, expansion of military spending, dependence on exports and imports rather then ‘inefficient’ local trade, increase in wealth inequalities, and so on.

Sri Lanka could be a dire warning, but it could also be a ‘useful’ warning about bad policies and the consequences of external pressures.

The Obvious Mistakes

In terms of food production, Rajapaksa banned all imports of agricultural chemicals in April 2021, some claim without any warning at all.

Unless you have total faith in the market to make up shortfalls with acceptable chemical or ‘natural’ substitutes manufactured locally, this is obviously foolish, and going to lead to shortfalls of food. It is also likely to throw some importing companies out of work, making you enemies.

On top of this the Government did nothing to increase the production of substitutes, or make the money available for purchase of local substitutes, which could be expected to increase in price due to the shortage, perhaps because of its faith in the market to supply people. Others have suggested these moves were deliberate to break small farmers and leave their farms open for purchase by wealthy farmers, which is not an unusual market tactic. An organic farmer is quoted as saying

Prior to this policy, the government had unsuccessfully tried to commercialise farm land, which is the biggest commercial asset the country has. So many of us think this was another way to try and get farmers to leave their land, or to weaken the farmers’ position and enable a land grab

Ellis-Peterson ‘It will be hard to find a farmer left’: Sri Lanka reels from rash fertiliser ban. The Guardian 20 April 2022

Others allege it was an attempt to greenwash the country’s inability to afford fertiliser, because of the existing financial crisis.

Furthermore, the government did not put in place any educational programs to help farmers learn composting techniques, or give them time to build up soil quality after their intensive use of chemical fertilisers. Essentially it withdrew aid to small farmers. With diesel prices more than doubling, many farmers could also not use their farm equipment.

These actions were followed by (or caused) a collapse in rice yields by about 30%. Sri Lanka’s primary export, tea, declined by nearly 20%. This was predictable.

The government eventually yielded to farmers protests and relaxed the ban, but removed subsidies after the price of fertilisers had increased due to the war in Ukraine “because other countries have long-term contracts that have tied up supplies,” according to a retired Indian diplomat Neelam Deo. So the strain was not released.

The Financial Crisis

Rajapaksa also had made the classic neoliberal error of borrowing to fund infrastructure projects while cutting tax revenue. It is hard to evaluate infrastructure projects, but it is possible some were dubious, or ended up being controlled by the lender. By 2020 Sri Lankan debt had reached 101% of its GDP. One ratings organisation remarked: “the Sri Lankan government will have to allocate around 29 billion USD between now and 2026 to service debt repayments alone.”

The resulting debt, together with currency depreciation, led to overseas organisations removing money from the country, and further depleted the government’s coffers. This caused the financial crisis.

In April 2022 it was reported that:

The country barely has any foreign currency reserves left, leading to dangerous shortages of food, gas and medicines as it is unable to import foreign goods, while people are enduring power blackouts of up to eight hours a day.

Ellis-Peterson Sri Lanka facing imminent threat of starvation, senior politician warns. The Guardian 7 April 2022

The collapse in medical supplies means that many people will die or cease to be self supporting.

As well as the debt, Sri Lanka’s economy had been simultaneously affected by Covid and terrorism, with a decline in tourism. Then the war in Ukraine increased fuel prices (Russia and Ukraine are also apparently its best source of tourists) and then the government defaulted on 51b of debt before negotiating anything with the IMF.

Electricity

The previously mentioned collapse in electricity supply meant that many shops and local industries cannot function. This was primarily connected to fossil fuel energy supplies, not to any renewable development.

The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) lost 65 billion rupees ($185 million) in the first quarter and sought an 835 percent price hike for the heavily-subsided smallest power consumers, the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) said…. Domestic rates have yet to be decided, but prices will go up by 43 to 61 percent for commercial and industrial users

Sri Lanka electricity firm seeks 835% price rise. France 24 27 June 2022

Sri Lanka’s primary energy supply mainly comes from oil and coal. Almost 40% of Sri Lanka’s electricity came from hydropower in 2017 but coal’s shares in power generation has been increasing since 2010.

IEA Sri Lanka

Greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 517% since 1990, and it appears there are no large scale incursions by renewables – possibly because the grid is not adequate. So there is no resilience, or challenge, provided by local renewables, and Sri Lanka has little to no coal deposits and its oil company has been losing money, the problem is running out of supplies.

https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/sri-lanka

At the end of June 2022, the government suspended all sales of fuel to anyone other than essential services, due to lack of fuel supplies. They also closed down schools, and reduced the government workforce to reduce commuting.

Widespread Protests

There were mass protests calling for Rajapaksa to resign and almost all the cabinet resigned, in protest over Rajapaksa’s behaviour.

There is some evidence the government was corrupt and disconnected from the people, such as the appointment of family members to important positions where they fought each other,

Since he was elected, Rajapaksa, who hails from Sri Lanka’s most powerful political dynasty, has worked to concentrate power in the hands of himself and his relatives. 

Ellis-Peterson Sri Lanka facing imminent threat of starvation, senior politician warns. The Guardian 7 April 2022

and the luxury of the homes revealed by the riots. The Government suppressed criticism of their policies in general. As defense minister, Rajapaska may have overseen the death of 40,000 Tamils, and others accuse him of having stolen billions from the country (I have no evidence).

World Crisis, not Local Crisis

Sri Lanka is not the only place in the world likely to suffer crisis. A UN Global Crisis Response Groups brief from 8th June 2022 warns that:

people globally are facing a cost-of-living crisis not seen in more than a generation, with escalating price shocks in the global food, energy and fertilizer markets – in a world already grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change….

An estimated 1.6 billion people in 94 countries are exposed to at least one dimension of the crisis, and about 1.2 billion of them live in ‘perfect-storm’ countries which are severely vulnerable to all three dimensions…

the war [in Ukraine with the resultant food shortages], together with the other crises, is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake,

Today, about 60 percent of the world’s workforce is estimated to have lower incomes than before the pandemic. More than half of the world’s poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it.

War in Ukraine threatens to unleash “unprecedented wave” of global hunger and destitution, warns UN Chief. UN Press Release 8 June 2022.

The World Bank has said almost 60% of the lowest-income countries are in debt distress. The President of the World Bank stated:

I’m deeply concerned about developing countries… They are facing sudden price increases for energy, fertiliser, and food, and the likelihood of interest rate increases. Each one hits them hard…. People are facing reversals in development for education, health, and gender equality… They’re facing reduced commercial activity and trade. Also the debt crises and currency depreciations have a burden that falls heavily on the poor… Food crises are bad for everyone, but they are devastating for the poorest and most vulnerable.

The inequality gap has widened materially, with wealth and income concentrating in narrow segments of the global population. Rate hikes, interest rate hikes, if that’s the primary tool, will actually add to the inequality challenge that the world is facing.

Spring Meetings 2022 Media Roundtable Opening Remarks by World Bank Group President David Malpass. 18 April 2022

The chances are high that other countries will default or suffer considerable food distress. Sri Lanka just happened to be the first. It was not a problem of organic agriculture but of general economic failure and external pressures. Even this badly executed process of organic transition could possibly have been met with food imports or suspension of food exports, the monetary and external crises made it impossible

Predicted cuts in aid by Western powers, trying to glide over the crises they face, will likely make things even worse.

Initial source Time Magazine

Ostrom’s ‘Laws’ of the Commons

July 10, 2022

This is a summary of a section in Elinor Ostrom’s Rules for Radicals by Derek Wall, Pluto Press, 2017. 28-32.

The idea is that looking at laws of the commons, may help community renewable energy survive if it can get established.

1) Commons need to have boundaries and belong to a community that takes responsibility for conserving them. They are not open to people from other groups without permission. This reduces the freeloading problem described by Gareth Hardin, in the famous Tragedy of the Commons, and Hardin’s later recognition that well-managed commons could escape the tragedy.

  • In terms of renewable energy, this means that there has to be a way of ensuring that the community gets access to the energy first, and it is stored for use by the community. Only when the community is satisfied is the energy sold on. This might be impossible, without decent weather prediction capacity. A problem might be that some people use more than others forcing others to buy in energy. This may suggest people have agreed on allocations of energy.
  • I’m not sure what happens if people elect to be outside the community energy gird, or even if that would be a problem.

2) Commons rules should be adapted to local circumstances, especially local environmental circumstances, rather than have uniformity imposed upon them. Different environments call for different uses.

Rules often involve limits- such as you may only gaze so many animals, take so much water, and at certain times of year.
We might note that these rules are often ritualised. Opening the commons on Lamas, coordinating the waters by phase of the moon, or divination… this all makes the commons part of the cosmos.

  • The community energy field and source has to be chosen with respect to land use, and environmental features. This is to be done by residents. Perhaps people have to have limits as to what they can take from community energy and storage – perhaps by time of day – to help avoid overconsumption? Making the energy commons part of the cosmos may be difficult in a non ritualised society.

3) Participants in the commons should participate in the rules decisions and rule making. The hope is that rules will be adjusted to changing circumstances, and that people will respect their own rules decisions. Participants will also regulate access to the commons so that it does not get exhausted. Again local decisions, enforced by local people, are more likely to be respected.

  • It may not be community energy without participatory governance by the members. However, not everyone may have the time to participate.

4) Commons use must be monitored. Some commons hire a person to be a monitor (for each type of commons available),to make sure it is all working and that people are not freeloading. With a small measurable commons, this may be done by the community as a whole. Records need to be kept.

  • With community energy there will need to be meters of some kind for costing and payment, or recognising export to the grid. It may be that nothing else needs doing. But it maybe good to have the meter reader as a recognised position, which gives a person in the community something back in return

5) Sanctions are gradated so that soft abuses do not get the same restrictions as hard or repeated abuses. Someone might not be served in the local pub for example. The idea is to bring the person back into using the commons as agreed, not endanger them.

  • Probably not an issue, but people should be prepared.

6) Low cost easy and local conflict resolution – This may require people to be equal so that the more powerful do not take advantage.

  • It doesn’t matter how well intentioned everyone is, there will be dispute and an effective and recognised dispute settling process needs to exist. This may be an occasion in which State governments need to legislate for communities, and recognise local variations in custom, so that people cannot just ignore them.

7) Recognition of the rights of commoners to organise themselves free of takeover from the State. Recognition of a right to exist easily. There is a general suggestion that commons should not be top down, or regulated at a distance, but they can be enabled from a distance.

  • Community Energy in Australia is currently hampered by regulation and its right to exist freely and easily, needs to be part of the way it is managed.

8) Commons may need to be interconnected or nested, possibly so that they reinforce one another or can be co-ordinated over a larger area.

Process thought and complexity

July 10, 2022

This is based on Jay McDaniel’s What is Process Thought, Process Century Press, 2021.

Process thinking resembles complexity and ecological thinking…. Most of the points below would be recognised in both other forms of thinking.

McDaniel describes some characteristics of process thinking, on pp.20-21, 33ff. There are distortions in the replication below and I have rearranged the points to make the flow more persuasive to me. Statements between brackets are additions to express the importance of ‘disorder’….

1) The Term ‘process’ suggests that the cosmos flows, constantly building [and destroying] itself. The cosmos is never precisely the same in any two moments.

2) The cosmos is continuously creative. New events are constantly coming into existence. Novelty is normal.

[Process thinkers tend to think of the world as resembling ‘verbs’, ‘events’, ‘happenings’, ‘patterns’ and so on, rather than resembling individual nouns doing, or suffering, actions]

3) The future is potentiality and possibility, it is not determined. We may need to be open to those possibilities, and to working with them, rather than thinking we can do nothing. The question is then, “How could we be best open to those possibilities?”
[Each point in time opens to infinite or large number of possibilities, although previous history may affect likelihoods of those possibilities]

4) Everything is interconnected or interdependent. ‘Things,’ nodes, or events cannot be separated out completely. Nothing exists by itself.

5) Everything has value, or relevance, in itself and in interconnection. Nothing existing is ‘dead’ or without potential, as it is part of process. Processes may seek balance or harmony [equilibrium]. [This balance or harmony may not necessarily include humans, especially if they work against it. For example if we disrupt ecologies too much then they may become uninhabitable by us.]

6) Humans find value in being in harmony with what is happening, with working with process and each other. Harmony is not sameness or enforced. Harmony allows change.

7) Humans find themselves in community or with others [human and non-human, and sometimes against others]. Recognising relationship is important, and we should aim for mutual respect and support. This includes recognising vulnerable and distressed people.

[What humans may call ‘disorder’ is a vital part of process, that needs respect. It can possibly arise because of misguided attempts to impose order, or because the humans refuse to recognise interconnected process, or ignore what is happening in the world and create an unconscious which will disrupt them.]

8) Power should be persuasive, or exemplary, rather than coercive, as coercive power disrupts natural processes or the flow. [All processes are natural]

9) Human ‘mentation’ involves reasoning, feeling, imagining, intuiting etc. and you cannot always separate these out, they can work together, and do [both for accuracy and inaccuracy…] Mind and body are not separate. We feel ourselves into the world, and the cosmos may behave like a mind.

10) It is too easy for humans to confuse the abstract with the particular. We should try not to confuse abstractions with actual events.

11) Humans can work with different perspectives and put them together into something new.

12) Education and learning is a life long process.

13) There is no separation between theory and practice. What you do, expresses what you believe and vice versa.

Summary of Praxeology post

July 7, 2022

This is trying to say much the same as the last post in a much less formal and much briefer manner

The point of praxeology is to make our axioms, suppositions, hypotheses, observations, and deductions obvious and open to criticism, so we can progress our understanding as we encounter new events and new understandings.

Capitalism is a set of social organisations of ‘forms’ or ‘systems’ of life

Human life occurs within interacting systems. The basic system on which all others depend are the planetary ecological systems. The capacity of human life depends on the functionality of these systems.

Propositions on Profit

Monetary profit seeking does not seem to be a sufficiently complex concept to drive a functional economic system. [People have many aims beyond profit.]

Monetary profit seeking appears to drive non-functional or even pathological systems, which delete human capacities, reduce most humans to machines for cheap labour, set up plutocratic forms of government and induce confusion and ignorance over vital information and understandings of problems.

Whatever pro-corporate economics says. there are no externalities to the planetary system, and any economics which considers pollution external to its own working, will cultivate non-functionality and death. It is useful to remember Ruskin’s idea of illth. Profit seeking will often produce externalised illth.

Continual enlargement of profit, company or economy is likely to be impossible, and should be treated with suspicion as generating non-functionality and destruction.

Freeloading

Freeloading seems inevitable in profit seeking and profit enlargement economies, and is harmful to social development, constructive co-operation and ecological functionality

Prices

Competition is imperfect and difficult because of the information system, and because of risk (companies are not providing exactly the same products).

Historical Digression: Trajectories of Capital accumulation

Differences in access to capital accumulation are not just the result of virtue, or productive talent as claimed by most pro-capitalist economic theory, but of a history of violence, theft and murder.

The advertised benefits of capitalism have largely been brought about by worker co-operation, threat of revolution and by becoming a market. The benefits have not been brought about by capitalists.

Proposition: Human Competition and Co-operation

Humans are both competitive and co-operative. Most pro-capitalists economics ignores co-operation between the wealth elites, against the working classes, but its important.

Propositions on power and economic action

Wealth is a basis for power.

Capitalism generates a situation of unequal wealth and hence unequal power – especially when the Wealth elites co-operate against the ‘lower classes’

Proposition: ‘Crony Capitalism’ and ‘State Capture’ are inevitable

Crony capitalism is normal and leads to State Capture or State Takeover – plutocracy. Capitalists use their wealth and power to shape the State to serve what they think are their best ends….

Wealth gives power, liberty and capacity; and inequality of wealth gives inequality of power liberty and capacity.

Siding with the elites

Some working people side with the capitalist class through taking managerial positions – however this may not lessen their vulnerability.

Power in the ‘Marketplace’

Power differentials affect market transactions and satisfactions.

Information system

Capitalism inherently confuses the information system by using it for advertising, PR, lies, etc., and by doing so, lowers that system’s capacity to provide useful and accurate information. This undermines the response of the wealth elites, and the polity as a whole, to real problems.

Information mess likely exists within most corporate bodies as well as in the more public sphere.

The information system is confused by normal action, so that various forms of market and social collapse are usually surprising.

Markets, Relationships and Trust (Morals?)

Human non-capitalist economies are as much about relationship and co-operation as monetary exchange. Exchange of money may defeat relationship.

Uncertainty and experimental politics

Uncertainty is normal in life and information incomplete even in the best circumstances. Hence policies should be regarded as experiments rather than as dogma. Attention should be paid to after-events in order to refine the actions and understandings.

Returning to systems

We live within systems. Individuals appear in systems of interactions.

The primary political need seems to be to recognise that we need functional ecologies in order to have functional economic systems, functional political systems and so on. Tending to ecologies is a fundamental political act that needs encouragement.

If we kill, or unrecoverably disrupt, our ecologies then the likelihood of us humans having much of a future severely diminishes….

Towards a real ‘praxeology’ of capitalism

July 6, 2022

Praxeology is the attempt to define the underlying logic of human action both individual and collective. It was a fundamental hallmark of Austrian ‘free market’ economics. It’s advantage is that, if conducted properly, it should make our axioms, suppositions, hypotheses, observations, and deductions obvious and open to criticism, so we can progress our understanding as we encounter new events and new perspectives. However, Austrian economics and its followers seem to have continually ignored empirical observations which suggest that capitalism would not work as they wanted it to behave. Rather than deal with the problems of their assumptions, or of capitalism, they have appeared to have wanted to blame others for capitalism’s failures (such as people with ‘good intentions’, socialists, state interference etc). Hence, their free market economics appears as if it is an attempt to protect capitalism from democratic influence or responsibility.

This is an attempt to describe human action without that particular bias.

This post will likely grow as I rethink it and rewrite it.

Capitalism is a set of social organisations of ‘forms’ or ‘systems’ of life:

Economic Life system: The organisation of exchange, trade, production, distribution of goods and wealth, property rights, ownership, credit, poverty, waste, pollution, extraction;
Political Life system: Relations of power and dominance, state organisation, taxes, active concerns, priorities, neglects, law, courts, regulation, policing, interaction with other groups, placing people in social categories to treat them ‘correctly’ (however ‘correctly’ is defined), warfare etc.
Informational Life system: Modes of gathering, producing, organisation, owning, distributing, suppressing or ignoring, information. Structures of communication. Modes of informational etiquette (such as abusing those who disagree) Modes of truth.
Energetic Life system: Labour, slavery, water, wind, solar, food, coal, wind, oil, nuclear etc.
Ecological Life system: Availability of resources, weather patterns, fertility, creatures, planetary boundaries etc…

  • [Capitalism also involves organisations of family, personal, educational and religious life (and so on), so that people can earn money, survive and find meaning within the overall system, but for the while we will ignore these factors, simply to make it relatively simple.]
  • [I have sometimes separated out the system of waste, pollution, dispersion, extraction and ecological destruction to emphasise its importance to current problems, and may do so again later. We can hypothesise that all economies depend on their systems of waste, pollution, dispersion and destruction.]

Despite coming last in this set of conditions, ecological systems are the fundamental basis of all life. Ecology is primary to all of economy, politics and energy use, although it is shaped by economy, politics and energy use. I’m not alone in asserting that politics and economics should be more focused on tending to the ecology, and keeping it healthy and functional, so as to help our survival. Functional, non-poisoned ecologies, in human terms, are vital.

All these forms or systems of life are bound together. You cannot separate them, and be realistic. Capitalism, politics, information, energy, ecology are all interacting complex systems. The imposition of one kind of order in one sphere, may generate unintended consequences or events, elsewhere, which are considered to be disorders.

Economic and political life are especially bound together. No capitalism has been observed without political life or without a State. Capitalism without States, may be possible, but so far it is a fantasy, and praxeology must deal with the real and observable, or be useless. Likewise no form of capitalism currently exists without an information system or without being within an ecology.

Proposition: All of these systems/forms of life have been impacted on over history, and this may affect their present condition and limit their probable futures.

The specific modes of organisation which define capitalism will become clearer as we progress, but the initial Primary guiding hypothesis is that the increase of monetary profit is the main drive and organising focus of capitalism – especially of neoliberal (current day) capitalism. Other forms and systems of social organisation, may not assume that monetary profit is the prime directive of all life. People may, for example, seek status (admiration from others) and power through displays of generosity or care.

A Secondary guiding hypothesis, which does not seem uniquely relevant to capitalism, is that the ruling elites (wealth or otherwise) will seek to maintain the conditions of their existence, and to increase their power (and profit). However, while they may have these intentions, there is no guarantee that they will succeed, or that they will not undermine themselves. The world is complex and escapes anyone’s total control.

Propositions on Profit

Definition: Profit is the extraction of money from the general economic process and its allocation to particular people in positions of business ownership, through legal means (ie political action), who then are said to make, and own, the profit. Profit arises within an underlying complex set of social processes or interdependencies (labour, provision of goods, provision of energy, regulation, interactions with other businesses, customers and so on). The law allows its separation out from this complex set of interdependencies. Recognised money makes profit ‘real’ and ‘storable’. As Ruskin suggests profit is not to be confused with wealth. Profit can also be a source of ‘illth.’

Question: Is there any form of what we call capitalism which does not require money?

Assertion based on the primary guiding hypothesis: Taking, and increasing, Profit is the fundamental underlying (and moral) principle of capitalism. The more intense the power of capitalists the more likely this is the case. Profit is needed for survival as a business.

Proposition 1: In capitalism, high profit (within the law) is considered good and less profit bad.

Proposition 2: The more costs of production can be lowered to increase profit the better.

Therefore: Workers are a drain on profit, and should be either eliminated or underpaid. The same may be true of suppliers. Likewise, pollution, poisoning, and unremediated ecological destruction are useful as they cut costs, and so are dismissed in capitalism as externalities. They are said to be external to the economic system, having no effect. Essentially externalities are the ways in which the capitalist class can freeload costs and suffering onto others to increase profit. One significant problem is that the planet and its ecologies are not external to survival and are finite. They have limits, and freeloading will eventually catch up with everyone. We have known this in theory since at least 1966, although the realisation seems to have been put to one side.

Question: Is capitalism more or less driven to destroy the ecology which supports it, through the drive to ‘externalise’ and ignore ecological damage, in order to increase profit?

The desire to continually increase profit, leads to growth (enlargement rather than development) being the mark of a successful business. Enlargement is not necessarily sustainable in all conditions for everyone – hence most businesses collapse, and only the most profitable (or ruthless) survive and eat everything else. To repeat, this increases the necessary power of profit, it keeps you in business, and that is more important than valuing ecology in this system.

Freeloading

Definition: Freeloading involves letting other people, or other companies, do the socially useful survival work (like not emitting pollution, feeding the workers), and avoiding the costs of that work and therefore increasing profits at the expense of those who don’t freeload.

Empirical generalisation: Corporate freeloading is often hidden by the information system, while worker freeloading is exposed.

Hypothesis: Freeloading is moral in capitalism, if it makes a profit and its done by the corporate class against the non-corporate class.

Question: Is there anything in capitalism, which prevents individualists from refusing to participate in the general costs of survival, by hiding their freeloading on those who do absorb those costs, then continuing with making the damage, making more profit and surviving when the other ‘responsible companies’ collapse?

If nothing opposes this, then all companies will be inclined towards freeloading for the sake of their survival.

Prices

It may be important to distinguish price from value, although they are often confused. Fresh air may be valuable but it may not yet be priced. Love may be valuable, but it may not always be priced. Price is the amount of money something can be charged for on the market.

It may be important not to assume that the value of anything is solely (and objectively) its price.

Proposition 1: In capitalism, high profit (within the law) is considered good and less profit bad.

Proposition 3: The higher the prices that can be charged to the customer, the greater the profit.

Therefore: Prices should continually increase until the products cannot be sold at a profit or potential customers move to products produced by other people with roughly the same function. This process is generally called competition.

Competition involves information. People have to know they can get the cheaper useful product for competition to work. Complete information is impossible, but fraud is possible. that is the cheaper product may not work.

Transactions with new businesses are risky. Companies are not providing exactly the same products. Cheaper may be cheaper, but they may not be good, the new company might break down, and leave you without a supplier, and so on.

Question: Do businesses generally regard competition as bad, and head towards monopoly, cooperation and/or suppression of information?

Empirical observation: Companies can, and do, create the illusion of competition by manufacturing different brands of ‘stuff’ at different prices.

Question: Is attempting to confuse the market (or the customer) a standard or vital tactic for business to help increase the price they can charge?

Historical Digression: Trajectories of Capital accumulation

Question: If there is no legal force which demands peace recognised, what crimes will be perpetuated in the name of profit?

Empirical observations: the East India Company. The Opium Wars. Tobacco companies.

Accumulation of capital, or the profit, to begin capitalism, has been historically brought about through violence.
Feudalism, conquest, colonialism, theft of treasure and resources (gold and silver from the Americas and India), ‘enclosures’ or dispossession of people from land, stripping people of their right to self sufficiency, slavery, cheap (but crippling or deadly) working conditions, downplaying the value of labour, reducing obligation and care to ‘money,’ together with repression of rebellion until this set up became taken as natural because people had never experienced anything else.

Capitalist colonialism has always attempted to eliminate non-capitalist ways of organising economic behaviour. Sometimes this destruction was deliberate (imposing wage labour, dispossessing people from land, or otherwise promoting the need for currency through taxes etc.) and sometimes it may have been accidental through the inability to understand that non-capitalist economic systems existed or had any virtues (ie through the capitalist shaping of the information system, and through the fact that not all these economies valued a constant increase in monetary profit at all costs). We might call this “The Natives are lazy” syndrome, found in Australia under Terra Nullius, which claimed that aboriginal people ignored the land and did not exist, which ‘therefore’ justifies taking the land, the destruction of non-capitalist people, ecologies and economies. Sometimes the destruction was by spread of disease, deliberate or otherwise.

Observation: The history of capitalist accumulation seems to be brought about by elites co-operating with each other and their ‘workers’, and doing far more damage than they could have done alone. There is no reason to assume that they should have become ‘individual’ operators after that success. (See ‘competition and co-operation’ below.)

Differences in capital accumulation are not just the result of virtue, or productive talent as claimed by most pro-capitalist economic theory, but of violence and theft.

Question: Does this situation continue today?

Empirical observation: We are still told the poor (‘Natives’) are lazy, untalented or cursed by God to be blamed for their own poverty, and that the ‘undeveloped world’ needs more capitalists, more enclosure of property, to buy more of our products (to make money for us), the help of international corporations and minerals being taken for very little in the way of payment. In America and Australia ‘our’ economic and state institutions still keep most of the land which was violently stolen.

The use of day to day violence was partially mitigated by the rise of worker organisation, the workers standing up to the violence, the rise of independence movements, the fear of revolution, and the general failure of fascism to stabilise capitalist power. Since the late 1980s this fear has diminished and workers’ organisation has declined. We may be heading into another round of ‘stabilising’ fascism.

Another factor in the lessening of repression was the realisation that workers with higher wages can form a viable market for products and hence higher wages can benefit all through increasing the scope of the market. However such a realisation was likely to fall, because of the temptation for individual capitalists to freeload on others, and to go back to undermining, deskilling and underpaying labour to increase their own profit and power in the market, at the cost of those who treated workers better to generate a good market.

Proposition: Human Competition and Co-operation

Empirical observation: People are both cooperative and competitive
a) They tend to cooperate within ingroups, or with people the person identifies with
b) They tend to compete with outgroups, or with people the person does not identify with

Empirical observation: People can do things through co-operation they could not do alone. They can often get more done through co-operation than by working alone.

Empirical observation: Competition often occurs through co-operation, as when group co-operates to ‘defeat’ another group or to increase their power and capacity.

Corporations are examples of human cooperation and competition (cooperation and competition both within and without).

Remark: Human beings don’t have to compete for money. Humans can compete for respect, acknowledgment, fame, power, obligation and so on – all of which can be beneficial to community life.

Many economic systems rely on ‘generosity’ of gifting, to build relationships and obligations. This can mix both competition and co-operation.

To ignore one of these factors in favour of the other, is to suppress awareness of human complexity.

Observation: Nothing that can be called an economy does not involve both competition and co-operation.

The limits of co-operation and competition are usually set by social convention and who is defined as ingroup and who is defined as outgroup.

Rejecting ideas of co-operation and non-monetary returns, means that people ignore vital parts of society, such as the building and design of the internet (free exchange in return for status and acknowledgement), long lasting commons and shared land, and even obvious fact, that most parents don’t kill, or seriously harm, their babies.

Propositions on power and economic action

Definition: Power is the capacity for both a) free action and b) control, or influence, over others’ actions.

Empirical observation (and axiom) 1: Unequal wealth = unequal power.

In a capitalist state, and perhaps in all States, wealth buys access to political processes, free action and control over others through organised violence or law. Wealth is a basis for power for free action and control over others.

Unequal wealth and power generates unequal liberty and unequal capacity for action.

Empirical observation (and axiom) 2: Capitalism generates massively unequal wealth (Usually justified by Praxeologists on the grounds of unequal talents.)

Therefore: capitalism generates massively unequal power, liberty and capacity to act.

Suggestion: Capitalist politics enforces this unequal liberty in order to preserve its system stability, to preserve the hierarchy of power and wealth of those who have it, and to engage in ‘capitalist pillage for capital accumulation’. See above and next section.

Hypothesis: The fundamental relationship in capitalism, is between Boss and worker. The worker must, in general, do as they are told so as to maximise profit. There is no necessary relationship between boss and worker apart from obedience and money. Capitalism is about obedience, and dependence on the employer, not about liberty.

Suggestion: Maximization of profit requires that groups who might want to share in the profit they helped produce, or who might increase costs through rendering pollution a non-external cost, have to be suppressed as best as possible, without leading to their revolt. This suppression may require the State, or co-operation between businesses.

Proposition: ‘Crony Capitalism’ and ‘State Capture’ are inevitable

The hyper wealthy will tend to identify with each other against ordinary people (see the proposition ‘Human Competition and Co-operation’, above). Hence they will co-operate against ordinary people and the ‘threat’ posed by ordinary people.

This is reinforced by the ‘need’ to diminish wages and working conditions and externalise costs onto others, so as to increase profit.

Statement: Employers, large corporations and wealth elites have more power than ordinary workers

Definition: Crony capitalism is co-operation between corporations or wealth elites so as to increase wealth, profit and power. This may make use of a political class, primarily a political class which identifies with the wealth elites, or is easily bought (because profit is the main social virtue).

Crony Capitalism is normal capitalism based in ‘human nature’ and ingroup outgroup behaviour. It’s easy and it is effective in increasing profit, and hence reinforced by the normal processes of profit seeking.

That corporate elites co-operate against outgroups, does not mean they will be unified with no internal competition, but that competition maybe suppressed in their cooperation against the “common enemy”.

Proposition 1: The corporate wealth elite has more power and capacity than the ‘lower classes’

Proposition 2: The elite will co-operate against the lower classes.

Proposition 3: The corporate wealth elite will pass this wealth and the advantage it brings to their children.

Therefore: workers are more limited in their response to opportunities. Competition between workers will always drive down wages unless there are workers with skills which are in short supply, and there is no equality or freedom of opportunity in capitalism for most people.

Comment: This competition between workers to earn enough to survive seems to be encouraged by pro-capitalist politicians to force down wages, and this perhaps unintentionally lowers the capacity of the mass market to purchase products and services.

What counts as belonging to who, is an act of negotiation and power. The more powerful the workers the more ‘belongs’ to them, the more powerful bosses and business, the more belongs to them.

Proposition: Collaboration between wealth elites will also occur in the wider political sphere.

Therefore: The hyper wealthy and the corporate sector will attempt to take over or capture the State, or set up a plutocratic state, to prevent the lower classes from acting against them. This State will regulate and structure the market in their favour in order to benefit their profit; it will allow more freeloading on others; it will attempt to prevent people demanding action which is socially beneficial but which could reduce profit, and it will police challenges to this order. This is personally beneficial for the politicians in capitalist ideology.

As a result, there is no possible capitalism in which the State does not interfere with the market, especially in an attempt to support the capitalist market. Hence the State is part of the market and cannot be blamed for the failure of the market alone – the behaviour of the State is part of the market in action.

Assertion: the form of State present in a capitalist society, will tend to support the wealth elites, support the location of profit with the wealth elites, while cutting back any support for workers, cutting back attempts to end freeloading by the wealth elites and demonising those who might agitate against the wealth elites in ways which could be effective.

Siding with the elites

Proposition 1: Living the worker life is insecure and low status.

Proposition 2: People tend to avoid positions of insecurity and low status if they can.

Therefore: People can hope to increase their wealth and apparent power, by siding with employers or corporations forming the managerial class which acts as a distractor and buffer between workers and wealth elites. However, low level managers (in particular) are still workers and discardable, whatever they might hope to the contrary.

Observation: Capitalism has to attract support to survive outside of perpetual warfare.

Power in the ‘Marketplace’

Following on from the earlier propositions.

Proposition 1: Wealthier players may have less of an immediate need for a transaction – they have the ‘capital’ to prolong survival, at a loss.

Proposition 2: Poorer players may have an immediate need for the transaction to survive and may have to agree to ensure that survival. They cannot survive the loss.

Therefore: All actors in the market do NOT have equal power in the market, and that transactions are not equitable, and are not equally satisfying.

Empirical observation: People who are not self supporting, and who need wages to survive may have to accept jobs at low wages, as low wages are better than non. Low wages may provide food, delay being thrown out of accommodation and so on. The employer does not have to care that much, as there will probably be someone else out of their luck and willing to accept the wages.

Employers can also co-operate to lower wages. cf Crony capitalism. They can also oppose livable minimum wages becoming law, because they are a recognised power block.

Likewise, in certain circumstances, a supplier can be desperate for a contract, and have to take a low offer because there is nothing else around, and the purchaser can hang in. In other circumstances the purchaser may be in the vulnerable position.

Mutual satisfaction in capitalist exchange is not guaranteed.

It is almost sanctified to rip off, or cheat, the other, unless it affects profit and repeat sales. Caveat emptor (buyer beware) is the principle.

Proposition 3: Small businesses can rarely undercut big businesses.

Proposition 4: Big business can often undercut the prices of small business for long enough to break the small business. They can then put up the prices.

Therefore: Big business can usually drive out small business, or non-established businesses, if the transactions are based solely on prices.

Therefore: An established oligopoly can generate conditions in which it is almost impossible for competitors to break into a market, even if the prices they charge are vastly inflated – especially given that the competitors usually have to consume capital to enter into the market in the first place, and are therefore likely to have higher costs to recover.

The risks of interacting with new players for old customers, is also a factor which supports the oligopoly.

Information system

All social systems have information systems.

The information a person has access too will influence the way that they perceive the world and its workings. Hence, control of the information system, or parts of the system is important politically, as it brings things to notice.

Proposition 1: In a capitalist society, the main media organisations and sources of information will be owned and controlled by the wealth elites.

Proposition 2: Nearly all contemporary people will gain information about the wider world, politics, ecology and economy, from media rather than from personal experience. The world is too big to know it all personally.

Therefore: the media will, in general, defend the wealth elites, their views, and their system of wealth to help preserve the system.

Note: this does not mean every player will automatically see the rightness of a particular defense, but defense and justification will be aimed at.

Proposition 3: As the media are corporate, the main purpose of the media is to make profit.

Proposition 4: the main source of media profit is corporate advertising.

Therefore: They will attempt to not alienate their advertisers or their audience. The primary aim of media is to attract audiences for advertisers’ advertisements, not to promote accurate statements.

Proposition 5: A secondary aim will be to discredit other media to stop the audience going elsewhere, and to keep advertising revenue high. This also does not contribute to accuracy.

Proposition 6: The function of advertising is to sell products, associate engaging fantasies with particular products, get people excited about new products or imagined products, attack existing competing products, hide cheaper competing products, increase profits, justify or naturalise capitalism, or protect a company from challenge, not to promote accuracy or accurate understanding. The Corporate Media is necessarily saturated in hype, falsehood and exaggeration from the beginning. And then there is the need to hide freeloading, or create ‘greenwash’, etc, to keep markets open against protest.

Reminder: It has already been suggested that false information about markets and confusion about prices of products can be useful to competitors on the market. If people do not know what they are buying, or how much they are paying, that can also be useful to competition. (Scot Adams: ‘Confusopoly’).

Proposition 6: People depend on the knowledge system, to learn about the world, to respond to the world and to situate themselves in the world.

Proposition 7: Confused people are more easily led to avoid problems and into further destruction by those who think they benefit from ignoring the problems.

Therefore: An information system which is completely messy will allow problems to accumulate or even encourage problems and destruction to continue, so as to preserve the power and wealth structures.

Empirical observation: the information system may distract people away from important information, in order to help the system pretend it is coping, and to prevent added challenges to the system. For example, controversy about the science of climate change is promoted beyond it statistical significance, while general agreement is not. Celebrity life is more important than climate change. This helps the system keep going (for a while). Likewise, non-capitalist economics is ignored, while the virtue of ‘free markets’ is promoted. Information necessary for survival may be hidden or attacked by the information system if it is seen as presenting an unacceptable challenge to capitalism.

Question: Are these kinds of information disruption systems present within the corporation itself?

Hypothesis: In general (but not always) people at the local level have a better knowledge of what is going on locally than people distant from them.

Therefore: Locals may tend to lie to the centre, or distant power, to allow them to act appropriately.

Remark: Pro-corporate analysts recognise that distant government officials can be out of touch, but generally do not recognise that corporate officials can also be out of touch for the same reasons.

Hypothesis: A punitive hierarchy will establish a system in which people below tell people above, what those below think those above want to hear, so as to protect themselves. The people above will only tell people below, what they think those below need to hear or know, and will lie to protect themselves, or to prevent resistance. Status depends on knowledge, so few people give knowledge away.

When you buy information from a supplier to try and obtain accuracy, the buyer still faces the problem that the supplier is likely to try and keep the purchasing relationship going by providing you with what you might want to hear, rather than what is accurate, and their sources might do likewise. Think tanks are often quite overt about providing their customers with what they want.

Suggestion: to this market based information disruption, we can add the effect of the political propaganda also spread through the information system, in which various forces attempt to make the corporate sector or political parties and politicians look good or bad and provide them with the information that will change their behaviour in desired ways.

The capitalist information system is riddled with rhetoric, hype, lies, distraction, fantasy and confusion, not as an add-on or an easily correctable mistake, but as part of its normal operation.

The normal processes of the market and of customer purchase appear to disrupt the intelligence and information needed to make decisions in the market.

Eventually the whole system will collapse when reality does not match with what the people come to believe should be the case, and with how they should act. This is suicidal. The information system becomes a non-functional ecology, in human terms.

Hypothesis: this cultivation of confusion and falsity to gain and keep market advantage is one reason why economic collapses, market breakdowns and the like, always take almost all players in the market by surprise.

It has been said that the market is the ultimate and only information processor about the world. If a business gets something wrong and does not learn, it goes bust. However, markets are a subset of ecological interactions. It is the ecology which has the final say. And if the ecology collapses, it does not matter how successfully the market has operated in its own terms, it will likely go down with the ecology.

Question: Despite all this information disruption, can wealth can buy better information and therefore buy advantage on the marketplace?

Non-profit ways???

Markets, Relationships and Trust (Morals?)

Anthropological observation: Most systems of exchange are about building relationships (systems of obligation, trust, gifting, connection and status) between people to further co-operation. Humans are relational animals before economic animals, and long before becoming ‘monetary transaction machines’.

Observation: Relationality still exists when price is not the only determinate of behaviour.

People can build relationships with small companies, with corner stores, with favourite stores, with their children etc. that are more than monetary exchanges.

Relationship building seems to be one reason why ingroup and outgroup bonds are so easy to form.

Companies have often tried to take advantage of relationality, and build up a relationship between customers and products, as if it were two way, when its primarily entrapping the customer..

By trying to make price and advantage the prime mode of exchange, in which the payment of money terminates the transaction, capitalist ideology breaks down human relationships to other humans and to ecology (natural world).

This is deeply anti-human, destructive of awareness and preventative of spontaneous beneficial non-capitalist co-operation from emerging.

Building connections and co-operation within and outside capitalism, and outside its self-generated problems, is likely a step towards building a survivable and less catastrophic world.

Commons

Emphasising co-operation without pretending people are never competitive or self-interested. Common land, common tools, common property exists throughout the world. I’ve argued that common energy may be the best way out of the energy crisis, as it puts responsibility for energy and pollution squarely on those that use it. It responds to local conditions, builds functional local democracy and participation, and has to guard against freeloaders or the project will fail.

It looks as though successful commons require locally agreed upon rules of use, and sanctions for violation of those rules.

Uncertainty and experimental politics

Assertion 1: Uncertainty is fundamental in complex systems. No matter how good the information system we will probably never have certainty. Few precise predictions can be guaranteed. The system is too complicated to map completely. No information system carries completely accurate statements.

Assertion 2: Uncertainty is not fixed by imposing the certainty that free markets deal with uncertainty and always produce the best possible result. Free markets are entangled in relations of power and deceit from the beginning. The ecology is the only real marker of correctness, and its response may be violent.

Assertion 3: Due to uncertainty, most policies, ethical positions and proposed solutions are experimental, and have to be treated as experimental. We don’t, and will not, know the full result of a set of actions until after we have acted, and we need to refine actions based on the result and the feedback it gives – and recognise this may change.

Assertion 4: We do now know, that current day neoliberal capitalism does not appear able to solve the problems it generates, and largely sweeps them under the table. It’s day needs to be over, but we may not know what to replace it with. This adds to uncertainty and the need for experiment.

Returning to systems

Observation: People live within systems. They do not live as isolated individuals. They live as interdependent people. This is fundamental. Without being able to be dependent on other humans all infants would die.

Observation: People live in the interaction of numerous systems of human and non human systems.

Observation: humans live in and create complex systems…. this has consequences. (I’ve dealt with this elsewhere, but uncertainty is primary).

Hypothesis: Attempting to impose any single system on all the others can easily lead to disaster.

Imposing ‘individualistic’ capitalism, or the ideology of individualistic capitalism on everything, is causing disaster.

It does not even produce an adequate model of what happens in real capitalism or real economies.

Methodological individualism is a distortion of reality, which serves an ideological purpose alone, to help maintain the power of capitalism and to prevent co-operative innovation and moves outside of the destructive economic system.

This set of reconceptualisations, which is not claiming to be original, is important because

  • humans act in situations/contexts
  • with particular understandings.
  • Understandings are part of the information system

Humans are hampered and encouraged by the contexts they live within.

If they have fundamentally incorrect understandings of the situation then the hampering to action from that situation will win out.

For example, it is easily possible to allege that most politics allowed to participate in capitalism are politics which help the reproduction of capitalism. There may be disagreements about how this is done, ranging from pure fascist theocratic authority, to pure libertarianism, to having working social services, but the main idea is to keep capitalism and its ‘class system’ going, even if we add another class to it to help that happen.

However we could imagine a politics in which the main concern was regenerating relatively harmonious human ecological relations, so that we did came to not deplete the earth, destroy other species, or poison the world. A politics which realised that without a working set of ecologies which include us, we cannot survive let alone survive well. This would be a politics and economics which would either displace or transform capitalist destruction, and make a new more human economics. It would at the least challenge the type of assumptions that we make about the world within capitalism.

The understandings proposed here can be trivial or wrong, but I assert they are better for dealing with our situations than the ones which have informational dominance and which seem to be helping towards continuing and worsening the multiple crises we face.

….

Attempt to summarise this on the next page.

Dealing with complexity 1: Political Risk Analysis

July 3, 2022

I’ve been reading John C. Hulsman’s To Dare More Boldly: The audacious story of Political Risk (Princeton University Press 2018). I have no idea whether this is considered a good book or not but its interesting. He gives ten principles for political risk and, in so doing, points towards principles useful for dealing with complexity, as what could more complex than political behaviour between nations?

Today I’m going to consider the first principle, and show that while its good, he actually ignores it in favour of ‘received knowledge,’ ‘individualism,’ and apparently ‘meaningless words’….

“We are the risk”

The point here is that we tend to ignore our own possible failings, or the failings of the systems we like. We look elsewhere for the problems.

For example, the author attended a Council of Foreign Relations meeting, and he suggested that American “political sclerosis” (whatever that is) was one of the ten most significant political risks in the world today, he was told it was the rest of the world that was the problem, not the USA, which could be left out of the problem sphere (p.45).

This is pretty clearly not a useful form of analysis, as the USA interacts with everyone else (complexity) and therefore has an effect on the result – no matter how ‘healthy’ it might be.

Another way of looking at his point, is that civilisations which collapse under external attack first suffer an internal collapse that makes them vulnerable.

He suggests that 18th Century Historian Edward Gibbon makes this kind of analysis in his Decline and fall of the Roman Empire. Or as he summarises:

Rome fell not primarily because of outside pressures but rather owing to an internal and gradual loss of civic virtue amongst its citizens

(P.43)

Now as an anthropologist I’m going to state that a decline in civic virtue, is not an explanation of anything. It is a statement of what might have happened. We may also need to ask, what caused this decline? What made the decline seem reasonable to people? What are the structures and processes involved? What are the complex interactions that lead to collapse, or slow phase out. I doubt that many individual people woke up one morning and said to themselves: “that’s it for civic virtue” and then Rome fell, or as Hulsman puts it

society atrophied as a result of personal failings that accumulated over time

(p 48).

If its personal failings there is nothing we can do, except blame others. However, if its shared personal failings or social dynamics then we can look around to find common causes and remedy them. Pretty obviously Rome in the East continued on for quite a long time (falling in 1453) so its a bit foolish to just focus on Rome in the West (476, almost a thousand years earlier), and we need to know what civic virtue (or personal failings) even are, and how they changed – not just assume they are immediately obvious, and obviously important because we like the idea and maybe think we are virtuous and have them.

Gibbon may have thought that Roman civic virtue was a matter of militarism.

The victorious legions, who, in distant wars, acquired the vices of strangers and mercenaries, first oppressed the freedom of the republic, and afterwards violated the majesty of the purple. The emperors, anxious for their personal safety and the public peace, were reduced to the base expedient of corrupting the discipline which rendered them alike formidable to their sovereign and to the enemy; the vigour of the military government was relaxed, and finally dissolved, by the partial institutions of Constantine

Christians, while violent, did not support the military as such, and hence helped the downfall. However, Gibbon begins this passage by making an added point.

Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight.

The Roman Empire became too big, and to clumsy to control, and to respond properly to challenges, as well as Romans becoming less interested in constant military ventures which consumed even more energy away from making it work. It is doubtful that even a modern empire with internet, jets and satellite can expand forever and hold its conquered land, as its context of supply chains, identity failure and local resistances grow more and more complicated.

However the point is clear, as Hulsman says, Rome may have eventually fallen because of a failure “to recognise and combat [the] home grown problems” of its Empire. This is a form of societal suicide which he calls ‘decadence’ (nothing like having a word that already tells you something is bad to help your judgements, and think you mean something) which he defines as “a society’s loss of ability to deal with its problem, coupled over time with a long-term abdication of responsibility for them” (p44).

My personal guess is that a lot of Romans probably tried to take responsibility for the problems, by blaming other people for them – despised classes like passive people, lazy workers, prostitutes, gays, people reveling in Luxury, nouveau riche, freed-slaves, Christians and later pagan philosophers etc. and they probably felt quite proud of facing up to the faults of others and berating them (Juvenal for example). Our vocabulary for condemning decadence (not being the same as we once were) very likely comes from Romans condemning each other.

Anyway, the point is that the Empire grew to such a size that it had to use barbarians to make its legions – which might have lengthened the decline – after all it gave the Barbarians something to fight for that wasn’t the fall of Rome, and made them invested in the Empire itself to an extent – they could become Roman citizens. They lived dangerous lives and got paid for it.

However, it is possible that ordinary citizens no longer saw the Empire as a particular advantage for them and lost interest…. It solved problems which did not seem that relevant to them, or it created problems for them – such as finding work, finding land, not having political representation, being unable to make social change and so on. Sport, public murder, and religious dispute, was all they might have had left to make a meaning for life

Hulsman further discusses the dangers of the Praetorian guard who were meant to defend the Emperor and family, but became a force in themselves from quite early on. They slaughtered emperors they did not like, appointed new people to the throne, and demanded higher and higher payments for loyalty – because they were necessary. Obviously not a mechanism for stable government, but it did not immediately cause the collapse of Rome, as the Emperor Constantine disbanded them and destroyed their barracks when he invaded Rome in AD 312.

So the main take away is the problems may issue from us, from the way we approach the problems, or the way we organise ourselves – but it is not simple.

The ‘Perfidious French’

Rather oddly, instead of moving to look at his own society from this point of view, he moves to condemn the modern day French. Let’s charitably assume that this is because he thinks Europe is part of the US, or he will talk about the US later on….

He discusses the events of August 2003 when Paris suffered a heat wave and large numbers of people died. To quote wiki:

In France, 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heat wave, according to the French National Institute of Health.[6][7] France does not commonly have very hot summers, particularly in the northern areas,[8] but eight consecutive days with temperatures of more than 40 °C (104 °F) were recorded in Auxerre, Yonne in early August 2003.[9]

Wiki 2003 European heat wave.

Houses in France are not generally built for heat waves. Hulsman alleges that the French government, and doctors (?), did nothing. The relevant ministers were on holiday and reluctant to come back to the heat. Many people who died where healthy people living alone, and the government blamed French Families for not taking care or elderly relatives.

Hulsman blames:

  • The sanctity of French summer Holidays (Lazy selfish people)
  • Worship of an unsustainable mode of living (not ecologically unsustainable, but unsustainable in terms of capitalist economics.)
  • Europe “rotting from within” with decadence.
  • People avoiding responsibility for their kin.
  • Growing older populations
  • People wanting too much from work.

His solution, is pretty obvious for a North American. Capitalism.

Lets not bother to look at whether the Capitalist system still works or not. Let’s not bother to ask whether something we like, or participate within, is a problem or not. Capitalism may be great for getting development going, but after its reached a point in which a very few of the people own nearly everything, and have bought the political system and taken it away from the people, is it still the solver of all problems? Or is it a generator of at least some significant problems? Is economic growth a solution or a problem? Not asking these questions is like avoiding American “political sclerosis.” It is violating the principle that “We are the risk”.

Let us assume he is correct and that capitalist markets in Europe are not allocating most people enough money for what they want to do, and that it will all crash down. Then how are you going to sell a project which means – YOU (other people) work harder, take home less pay, get less benefits, retire later, pay increased personal taxes if middle class, have pensions privatised and subject to risk and rip off, in return for an uncertain promise that allowing other people to earn more in half an hour than you do all year round, might fix the problem or might not. This sounds like a standard neoliberal solution in which austerity is for the poor and the middle classes. Indeed Austerity seems to be both the solution and the result.

The wider questions around Are we the problem?

Capitalism as a problem?

He may be correct that Euro-capitalism is dying, but is the only solution US style capitalism, which could also be said to be dying? Or could it be something new?

Do we need to abandon capitalism? I’m not suggesting we always do (although there are obvious problems with neoliberal capitalism and its theories which I’ve discussed elsewhere), but it needs to be examined if the Anglo-sphere is not just to rest on its claimed laurels.

Are people uninvolved because neoliberalism encourages a “selfish” individual focus?

Are people uninvolved because capitalism encourages obedience to bosses, and irrational managerial restructures in which no one affected is ever listened to?

Are people uninvolved, because all spiritual and psychological questions become reduced to purchases?

Are people uninvolved because capitalism reduces tradition to obstruction?

Are people uninvolved because capitalism:

has left remaining no other nexus between man and man than naked self-interest, than callous “cash payment”. It has drowned the most heavenly ecstasies of religious fervour, of chivalrous enthusiasm, of philistine sentimentalism, in the icy water of egotistical calculation. It has resolved personal worth into exchange value, and in place of the numberless indefeasible chartered freedoms, has set up that single, unconscionable freedom – Free Trade. 

Marx and Engels Communist Manifesto

I don’t know, but they, and other questions, are questions worth asking.

We could also note that pro-corporate media is very keen on the idea that people who die of Covid, die with Covid, have existing conditions, or are old and useless and would die anyway. We repeatedly here how old people are a cost not a benefit, and so it is perhaps no wonder that people ignore the elderly and leave them to die. That they are solely a cost and burden, as they are retired, might even be an implicit message in his own arguments…

If people cannot labor, in relevant fields, or have no money to invest, do they have any value in capitalism?

That a form of capitalism worked well in the 60s to 70s in the Anglo-sphere to bring prosperity, social mobility, art, and education to all is not a guarantee that neoliberal capitalism will do the same, work now, or could not be modified with consultation. We could look at it as a potential cause of problems. Or do we have to protect capitalism from being considered even briefly a problem generator? There is plenty of degrowth economics around.

While it is cynical, we might find the answer to the question of why are these questions completely avoided in a chapter on not avoiding questions which implicate ourselves by reading the opening chapter and finding out that most political risk analysis is sold to corporations. Telling them capitalism might need to be changed is possibly limiting the market.

Climate

Lets look in a wider sphere, dragging in events or contexts he seems to be ignoring. Events only have meaning in context.

Can you publish a book on real political risk in 2018 without mentioning climate change and ecological decay. I don’t know yet, but I suspect you can. There is no entry for these problems in the index.

People did not normally die in late summer in Paris from heat. The contexts of events are changing. Climate change was already here in 2003. However at that time, probably no government or corporation on Earth recognised climate change as a current problem. There was little to no preparation for it. It was in the distant future, despite the warnings. So it is not surprising that few people were prepared. This was unusual. Nights in Paris are usually cool, but this time they were not. Houses did not cool over night.

Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. 

Marc Poumadère, Claire Mays, Sophie Le Mer, Russell Blong. The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now. Risk Analysis 25(6): 1327-1687

Let us remember the Australian Governments some 15 years later and their complete lack of interest in climate change, and complete lack of preparedness for the “black summer” bushfires and the huge floods a few years later. It is much harder to excuse these pro-market people for their failure, than the French; especially after all the warnings and the wild events around the world. However, people like Bjorn Lomborg are still trying to argue that heat is not as deadly as a cold people will be unlikely to suffer in France; indeed that heat saves lives [1], [2].

Capitalism, and pro-capitalist governments, have not been good at dealing with climate change, although they have been good at denying climate change and resisting social change to deal with it. Given this, it seems even more odd to argue that capitalism is a solution for either the problems of climate change in France, or the long-term problems of the French Economy.

Conclusions

It is worthwhile looking at the failures of our own system, or the systems we like, and not to protect them from questions, when we are considering the future. “We, and what we like, are (part of) the risk“.

It is also useful to look at the contexts of those system we live within, such as the global ecology and the global climate. These are changing and will challenge established systems which grew up within different systems and developed different expectations as a result.

Something which once worked ‘well-enough,’ may now no longer work, because it operates differently dues to internal changes, or the context it is working within is now different.

In terms of climate politics we might need to look at how our attempts to initiate lower emissions, renewable energy, ecological care and so on, are maladaptive, remembering again that: “We, and what we like, are part of the risk to our own success and to our own future.”

Social Roots of Stupidity II

July 3, 2022

Misinformation grows quickly

It is easier and much quicker to lie, or to invent something that sounds right, or that people might want to believe, than it is to research a topic thoroughly, and check that everything you have read is correct and that your understanding (of everything involved) is accurate.

  • Note a source does not have to be deliberately lying. There is no difference between a lie and a mistake as far as misinformation is concerned.

If you release a lot of lies, and are like Trump and get a lot of coverage, then you can see which ones are taken up, and follow them up with more reinforcing fake news to fill in the gaps and help convince people that misinformation is real.

Misinformation evolves. That which appeals to its audience, will spread the furthest. Random misinformation allows the audience to choose what to spread on its own.

Social bias as a filter

In information society, there is always way too much information out there to evaluate it properly or test it for truth. Testing information takes time and dedication. Consequently, the main ways of judging information is:

  • By whether it harmonises with information, attitudes, cosmologies, religions or morals, you already have, or with actions you already take or would like to take.
  • By whether it is promoted by people who you consider to be be members of your group, or having a similar identity.
  • By whether it is promoted by high status people who you consider to be members of your group.
  • By whether it makes your groups virtuous and outgroups vicious, immoral or evil.
  • By whether it will cost you social status to accept or refuse to accept the information.
  • By how essential the information becomes for acting within your main groups.
  • By whether it promotes emotions that are righteous in your group.
  • If its promoted by people you dislike, and distrust, who contradict those in your groups, then its probably fake.

Information will be judged socially. Acceptance is geared towards survival in particular groups, with particular kind of identities, and maintaining hostility towards other groups.

The more you think your ‘opponents’ are lying, the more excuse there is to lie yourself.

The less identity groups are polarised, or separated, and the more they are included in a wider category (such as ‘fellow Australians’), then the more likely that information can be evaluated with accuracy.

Information as programming

Information tells people what is important in life and the world, what they should look for, and what counts as data. This is sometimes known as the “theory dependence of observation”.

Another way of describing this is via the slogans: “Perception involves interpretation,” “We put meaning onto the world.” “Our thoughts shape the world we perceive”.

This process is not an completely unbreakable loop, but it can be hard to break.

Humans tend to find what they are looking for, so if you program people with the right misinformation, then they will soon find their own misinformation and see connections that are not there. If those connections get taken up, then even more people will fall into the trap. Especially if agreeing with information becomes tied in with their membership of a group and of an identity – and people start indicating that the person is not a proper ‘X’ because they don’t accept the ‘truth’.

As suggested earlier, if authoritative people in the group start repeating the misinformation as true, and it points to the evils of an outgroup, then it is even more likely to be believed, and never to be challenged. The consequences are too high. More misinformation will be produced in order to make the misinformation, and the world it reveals, more believable.

Having their attention directed away from reality, and into confirmation bias and group loyalty, normally increases a person’s incapacity to interact with the world as that world is. Misinformation can increase stupidity, lower resilience, and lead to a bad end, as people ignore real problems and complexities in favour of imaginary problems and simplicities or complications.

Conclusion

Misinformation thrives because accuracy is hard, requires checking and is limited. Misinformation does not have to be checked to see if its accurate, and it can go anywhere that people take it. If information is tied into a group identity, that it becomes even harder to stop, because stopping it challenges group and individual identity and can be seen as an imposition on a person’s liberty.