Archive for March, 2023

UN Secretary Generals video message on the Synthesis Report

March 22, 2023

This is pretty straightforwardly a reproduction of the original with a bit of abridgement and reformatting.

If there is a copyright issue please let me know in the comments, and I will remove it.

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Dear friends,

Humanity is on thin ice – and that ice is melting fast. 

As today’s report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) details, humans are responsible for virtually all global heating over the last 200 years. 

The rate of temperature rise in the last half century is the highest in 2,000 years.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest in at least two million years.

The climate time-bomb is ticking. 

But today’s IPCC report is a how-to guide to defuse the climate time-bomb.

It is a survival guide for humanity. 

As it shows, the 1.5-degree limit is achievable.

But it will take a quantum leap in climate action.

This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe.

In short, our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once. 

I have proposed to the G20 a Climate Solidarity Pact – in which all big emitters make extra efforts to cut emissions, and wealthier countries mobilize financial and technical resources to support emerging economies in a common effort to keep 1.5 degrees alive.  

Today, I am presenting a plan to super-charge efforts to achieve this Climate Solidarity Pact through an all-hands-on-deck Acceleration Agenda.

It starts with parties immediately hitting the fast-forward button on their net zero deadlines to get to global net zero by 2050 – in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances.
 
Specifically, leaders of developed countries must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2040, the limit they should all aim to respect.
 
This can be done.  Some have already set a target as early as 2035.

Leaders in emerging economies must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2050 – again, the limit they should all aim to respect.

A number have already made the 2050 commitment. 

This is the moment for all G20 members to come together in a joint effort, pooling their resources and scientific capacities as well as their proven and affordable technologies through the public and private sectors to make carbon neutrality a reality by 2050.

Every country must be part of the solution. 

Demanding others move first only ensures humanity comes last.

The Acceleration Agenda calls for a number of other actions.

Specifically:

  • No new coal and the phasing out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 in all other countries.
  • Ending all international public and private funding of coal.
  • Ensuring net zero electricity generation by 2035 for all developed countries and 2040 for the rest of the world.
  • Ceasing all licensing or funding of new oil and gas – consistent with the findings of the International Energy Agency.
  • Stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves.
  • Shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to a just energy transition.
  • Establishing a global phase down of existing oil and gas production compatible with the 2050 global net zero target.

I urge all governments to prepare energy transition plans consistent with these actions and ready for investors.

I am also calling on CEOs of all oil and gas companies to be part of the solution.

They should present credible, comprehensive and detailed transition plans in line with the recommendations of my High-Level Expert Group on net zero pledges.

These plans must clearly detail actual emission cuts for 2025 and 2030, and efforts to change business models to phase out fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy.

This acceleration has already started in some sectors, but investors now need crystal clear signals.

And all governments need the assurance that business leaders will help them deliver on extra efforts – but governments must also create an enabling policy and regulatory environment.

Shipping, aviation, steel, cement, aluminum, agriculture – every sector must be aligned with net zero by 2050 with clear plans including interim targets to get there.

At the same time, we need to seize the opportunity to invest in credible innovations that can contribute to reaching our global targets. 

We must also speed-up efforts to deliver climate justice to those on the frontlines of many crises – none of them they caused. 

We can do this by:

  • Safeguarding the most vulnerable communities, and scaling up finance and capacities for adaptation and loss and damage.
  • Promoting reforms to ensure Multilateral Development Banks provide more grants and concessional loans and fully mobilize private finance.
  • Delivering on the financial commitments made in Copenhagen, Paris and Glasgow.
  • Replenishing the Green Climate Fund this year and developing a roadmap to double adaptation finance before 2025.
  • Protecting everyone with early warning systems against natural disasters in four years.
  • Implementing the new loss and damage fund this year.

The longer we wait on any of these crucial issues, the harder it will become.

…..

The transition must cover the entire economy.

Partial pledges won’t cut it….

We have never been better equipped to solve the climate challenge – but we must move into warp speed climate action now.

We don’t have a moment to lose.

Thank you.

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IPCC: Summary of 2023 Synthesis Report

March 21, 2023

Most of this is quotations from The Synthesis Report Summary.

Optimism

Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years (high confidence).

The rate of growth in emissions between 2010 and 2019 (1.3% year) was lower than that between 2000 and 2009 (2.1% year).

Maintaining emission-intensive systems may, in some regions and sectors, be more expensive than transitioning to low emission systems [however the question for business is, which is the most profitable on the whole, and which loses the least already made capital investment?]

The Situation with GHG Emissions

Global net anthropogenic GHG emissions have been estimated to be 59±6.6 GtCO2-eq in 2019

In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (410 parts per million) were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence), and concentrations of methane (1866 parts per billion) and nitrous oxide (332 parts per billion) were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years (very high confidence). [we are headed towards a non-human world.

Emissions reductions in CO2-FFI [from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial] due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings.

If the annual CO2 emissions between 2020–2030 stayed, on average, at the same level as 2019, the resulting cumulative emissions would almost exhaust the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%), and deplete more than a third of the remaining carbon budget for 2°C (67%). Estimates of future CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructures without additional abatement already exceed the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C (50%) (high confidence). [It is logical to assume that no new gas and oil sources are needed]

[Bad news is that at current rates of reduction ie policy failure we are locked-in for between 2 and 4 degrees increase. The higher ends of that is catastrophic.]

Some Effects

In all regions increases in extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases (very high confidence) and the incidence of vector-borne diseases (high confidence) have increased. In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (high confidence).

Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism. Individual livelihoods have been affected through, for example, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, human health and food security, with adverse effects on gender and social equity.(high confidence).

In urban areas, observed climate change has caused adverse impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure. Hot extremes have intensified in cities. Urban infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being. Observed adverse impacts are concentrated amongst economically and socially marginalised urban residents.

[increasing drought, fires, infectious diseases, floods, displacement, glacier retreat, ocean acidification]

Challenges

There are widening disparities between the estimated costs of adaptation and the finance allocated to adaptation.

Climate finance growth has slowed since 2018

The IPCC still thinks Carbon Capture & Storage is required. which basically blows any optimism for me.

[However they recognise this problem]: Implementation of CCS currently faces technological, economic, institutional, ecological, environmental and socio-cultural barriers. Currently, global rates of CCS deployment are far below those in modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C.

The report also says over-reliance tree planting and biomass crops paired with CCS, can have adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts, including on biodiversity, food and water security, local livelihoods and the rights of Indigenous Peoples, especially if implemented at large scales and where land tenure is insecure.

Net zero CO2 energy systems entail: a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems; electricity systems that emit no net CO2; widespread electrification; alternative energy carriers in applications less amenable to electrification; energy conservation and efficiency; and greater integration across the energy system (high confidence).

The press release also states: The pace and scale of what has been done so far, and current plans, are insufficient to tackle climate change.

Consequences of not acting now

The higher the magnitude and the longer the duration of overshoot, the more ecosystems and societies are exposed to greater and more widespread changes in climatic impact-drivers, increasing risks for many natural and human systems…. Overshooting 1.5°C will result in irreversible adverse impacts on certain ecosystems with low resilience, such as polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet, glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise

The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence).

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