Archive for April, 2025

Dictatorship or Evacuation?

April 5, 2025

Trump may want a dictatorship with himself at the top gaining deference from everyone. He has for example, not consulted with congress about a number of things he is supposed to consult about. He has said he will be able to seek a third term, possibly through succession. There are innumerable stories about how State level Republicans have been trying to get rid of potential non-Trump voters to fix elections for good eg [1], [2], [3], [4], [5], [6]. This is all part of Project 2025.

But if that is his aim, his attempts to implement project 2025 may not be generating the result he wants. Dictatorships are usually said to require a strong, well organised State.

By pulling the State apart, and massively confusing people as to his aims, he is generating a plutocracy, in which those who have enough riches will be able to do what they want, and those who do not have enough riches will get to do what they are told and to suffer. This represents a philosophy generally called “libertarianism” [7], [8]. Peter Thiel one of the billionaire founders of the movement leading to project 2025, stated clearly that “I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible.” Democracy, in which people (including women) are consulted, is apparently incompatible with corporate liberty, or the liberty of the rich and special. Libertarianism, or oligarchy, is more likely to result from Project 2025.

Musk is a libertarian, who may well consider getting some people off earth more important than any aim of general welfare – after all if Earth is rendered unlivable before he gets a self-sufficient Mars base, then humanity may be doomed. If every human on Earth dies as a result of corporate and government actions, and the survivors on Mars found ‘Human space’ then all is well – humanity continues. This is virtue in the long term! As far as I know he has not declared government spending on his Space-X company to be a waste of money, and suitable for cutbacks (although he apparently has terminated expenditure into investigations into potentially illegal acts by his companies) [8]. He seems far keener to sink money into escape than into technology to prevent or lessen the effects of climate change – as after all climate science in the USA has been severely disrupted and repressed [9], [10], [11], [12].

Generally corporations like stability, so they can plan, so they can engage in profitable but low risk investment and so on. So most companies will not like the chaotic result of Project 2025 when they see the results, however much they have supported it until then.

However, they will fight to retain their power and positions, and the destruction of the US State will likely lead to the enshrinement of corporate power, wealth and struggle.

It could result in a feudal system in which ‘the Barons’ of industry fight over property, without the obligation the real Barons had to provide any ‘protection’ for the people. There will be nothing to constrain pollution or ecological destruction, or to counter act against the power of riches – except The Market – and the conveyance of elites to Mars -which will not be a pleasant life either.

However, a likely unexpected consequence of these policies, could be that the capitalist market falls apart, because ordinary people do not have the money to drive production… Can capitalism as we know it survive without a relatively well off working class, with the rich just serving each other? I don’t know. It will be a different type of organisation, perhaps again if it encourages mass die off, then it might survive going to Mars….

What happens after the elites hit Mars, is anyone’s guess.

Trump tariffs and the world economy

April 4, 2025

Economies are complex systems. Predicting what will happen is a fraught occupation. As you will know it seems easy for economists to say that the economy will boom, or is now stable, just before it collapses.

However, it seems pretty safe to say that a major set of disruptions, such as the huge tariffs that Trump has imposed on many countries, including allies, could lead to chaos and collapse.
Militarily, it makes visible what some have been saying for a while, that the US under Trump is not a reliable ally and you should shift your alliances elsewhere. If so, that shifts balances of power away from the USA.

If he has exempted Russia from tariffs but put them on Ukraine, as I have read, then that gives another reason why people will not trust him as a military ally.

In Australia it is quite obvious that the tariffs have been place on weird locations, such as uninhabited islands, or Norfolk Island which at the moment seems to have no trade with US at all [1], [2]. It seems that officially figures were calculated by subtracted US imports from a countries exports and declaring that this had to have something to do with tariffs [3] [4], . This is complete Rubbish. The American people may not be informed by their media, but business people will know the figures are essentially random and there for punishment’s sake.

This fragility of purpose and calculation, may cause people to evaluate the US as a “basket case” and shift trade into non US dollars, or provoke the Chinese to sell part of their dollar reserve. This would have huge effects on American Power, status, and currency stability, as the dollar is potentially sold off everywhere.

The Tariffs will massively boost price increases in the USA in time. Sensible US companies will have bought excess products to help them with the price increases over the last couple of months, but that will only last for a time and some of them will use the tariffs to excuse price rises. This is called ‘replacement costs.’

As a result, people in the US will pretty certainly be paying more for almost everything soon. This probably will not trouble the top 5% income and wealth owners, but it will trouble most other people.
Farmers will also go bust because of the scrapping of USAID which bought billions of products from them [5], [6]. However, this will allow large US landowners to displace even more ordinary farmers.

Exports will probably crash, because people elsewhere on the planet, will resist buying American products (I might even stop using Amazon) and most countries will boost their tariffs against American products or seek out products from elsewhere, because no one knows what else Trump will do in the future. This wrecking of exports will further depress wages, and add to suffering.

The tariffs will possibly be hugely beneficial to China who will likely become the center of a new world trade order – the US has handed China the renewables market already,

My feeling is that seeing trade with the USA collapse, American companies will not find it that attractive to return to the USA. But if they do, they will likely build up to date fully automated factories, that will not increase the employment of ordinary workers. If they hire anyone it will be at the basic wage, and you will likely have full time employment with food and housing insecurity for most people.

Education will have collapsed, except for the rich. It will no longer lead to good jobs, just to people who support right wing ideology which will be all that can be taught, so ignorance will increase. It is debatable if a modern economy can survive mass ignorance – we shall see.

Then of course you have to face increased climate change. With Trump doing everything he can to destroy the environment (even banning paper straws!! [7]), the world condition will get much worse than it could have. However, the USA will probably encounter mass poisonings as it becomes legal to dump almost anything in poor areas where people cannot afford the law. Lack of stability in the climate/ecology, with wild storms overwhelming what can be insured, will also curtail economic stability, so the results of Trump’s presidency will pile up, and be unlikely to be beneficial for most people.

The outlook is not good because of many Trump induced factors, but, as I said, its complex and I could be wrong.