Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Did Trump benefit from the Riots?

March 3, 2021

It is now almost two months since the riots at Capitol Hill, speaking from a safe distance in time. It seems that:

  • Trump now owns and controls the Republican Party.
  • He has persuaded the Republicans to purge the party of dissent, and of those people who stood for principle and reality, against him.
  • Republicans will no longer even attempt to speak the truth about him, or they are gone.
  • He is, assuming he survives, a guaranteed candidate for the 2024 election, and if people are not enthusiastic for Biden, then he may well win.
  • Republicans involved in counting the vote, know the risk they take if they don’t ensure that Trump wins.
  • Republican states are apparently already increasing their ability to deregister voters and fix elections.
  • He has earned a considerable amount of money from his fans by portraying himself as the victim of a plot.
  • Fox has hired people he likes and who worked well with him, so they will be even more pro-Trump, and less of a news station.
  • He will probably be able to portray criminal charges against himself as anti-Trump mania, and may be able to fix up, or frighten judges or juries.
  • He may well now be able to threaten people with mob rule, and his capacity for stochastic terrorism is greatly increased.
  • Other people are being blamed for the riots, so he keeps his supporters.
  • He has demonstrated, yet again, he can say or do anything. If he becomes the next president, he will have no effective opposition, and nothing to curtail his vengeance, on those who hinted at opposing him.
  • The riot was his beer hall putsch, and he did not even go to jail. He suffered no inconvenience at all from attempting to steal an election. Not even the slightest. People talked about charges, but so far no sign. We can assume he will continue to increase his hold on the Right and increase his encouragement of direct violence.

If things had gone well for him, or as planned, it is possible that he could have been able to declare a state of emergency and martial law, or at least hurt and damage people who opposed him, or who followed the law like Mike Pence – and it would not have been his fault if Pence had died. “Terribly Sad” he might say.

***********

From an even later period of time, late July 2021, the group identification levels and binaries seem to have increased even further. Democrats now seem to be considered completely untrustworthy and evil by many non-fanatics on the Right.

It is now perfectly acceptable to say that the riot was like a capitol tour, that there was love in the air, that it is the fault of Democrats, that Democrats are communist traitors who are persecuting innocent protestors, that the election was fixed by China (who have taken over the Democrats) and so on.

Many seem to say the riot could not have occurred because conservatives are peaceful, therefore the images are faked or the rioters were not real Trump followers. The beating of police officers is denied, they are “crisis actors” and “angry left-wing political activists”. One black officer is apparently discredited because he thinks there is white racism in the US… talk about cancelling.

It will take real strength of mind not to go along with this and the continuing purge of any dissent from the party.

So the riot both ‘shows’ the anger of ‘conservatives,’ and tells them that they are innocent and being persecuted. It has not harmed Trump at all, and helped to confirm his standing as the next Candidate for President. And he will win if Democrats do not all get out to vote – assuming it is still legal in Republican controlled states… [that is a joke]

Bitcoin…. and Energy

March 1, 2021

I’ve heard this story many times [for example, see here], but here is another version…

The University of Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance (CCAF) apparently claims that Bitcoin probably has and energy consumption is somewhere between 40 and 445 annualised terawatt hours (TWh), with a central estimate of about 130 terawatt hours.

The UK’s electricity consumption is a little over 300 TWh a year, while Argentina and the Netherlands use about the same amount of energy as the CCAF’s best guess for Bitcoin.

as Bitcoin gets more valuable, the computing effort expended on creating and maintaining it – and therefore the energy consumed – inevitably increases.

We can track how much effort miners are making to create the currency.

They are currently reckoned to be making 160 quintillion calculations every second – that’s 160,000,000,000,000,000,000, in case you were wondering….

Alex de Vries, the founder of the Digiconomist website [says]

All the millions of trillions of calculations it takes to keep the system running aren’t really doing any useful work….”Right now we’re using a whole lot of energy to produce those calculations, but also the majority of that is sourced from fossil energy.”…

“We’d have to double our global energy production,” he says with a laugh. “For Bitcoin.”

He says it also limits the number of transactions the system can process to about five per second.

This doesn’t make for a useful currency, he argues.

Rowlatt How Bitcoin’s vast energy use could burst its bubble, BBC

Addenda

In a new research paper published in the journal Nature Communications, researchers from the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Tsinghua University have projected that on current trends, bitcoin mining electricity consumption will more than double from its current levels, peaking in 2024….

bitcoin [will] rank as the equivalent of the 12th largest electricity consumer amongst all countries, higher than the likes of major European economies, including Italy and Spain…. [and Australia].

It is estimated that around 70 per cent of bitcoin miners are located in China…. [and] is responsible for approximately 5.4 per cent of China’s electricity emissions…

[The paper’s authors state:] we find that the carbon emission pattern of Bitcoin blockchain will become a potential barrier against the emission reduction target of China.”

Mazengarb Bitcoin mining to consume more electricity than whole of Australia by 2024. RenewEconomy 7 April 2021

It is rather frustrating to think of how much renewable energy we will have to produce to power this thing on top of everything else we have to power. Bitcoin is a currency essentially based on massive amounts of electricity consumption, and hopes that people will pay real money or real products for more bitcoin.

Like all money its value is a matter of faith that other people will want it.

My only hope is that advertisements are going up on bus shelters saying “If you see bitcoin on a poster, it’s time to buy.” Anyone in finance knows that when you are trying to let the rubes into a secret it’s because those in the know are selling off….

Not great news

March 1, 2021

I am simply quoting the UN NDC Synthesis Report:

The Parties’ [to the Paris Agreements total GHG emissions are, on average, estimated to be:

  • By 2025, 2.0 per cent higher than the 1990 level (13.77 Gt CO2 eq), 2.2 per cent higher than the 2010 level (13.74 Gt CO2 eq) and 0.5 per cent higher than the 2017 level (13.97 Gt CO2 eq);
  • By 2030, 0.7 per cent lower than in 1990, 0.5 per cent lower than in 2010 and 2.1 per cent lower than in 2017.

…the estimates suggest the possibility of the Parties’ emissions peaking before 2030. 

[However,]

According to the SR1.5, to be consistent with global emission pathways with no or limited overshoot of the 1.5 °C goal, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions need to decline by about 45 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050. For limiting global warming to below 2 °C, CO2 emissions need to decrease by about 25 per cent from the 2010 level by 2030 and reach net zero around 2070. Deep reductions are required for non-CO2 emissions as well. Thus, the estimated reductions referred to above fall far short of what is required, demonstrating the need for Parties to further strengthen their mitigation commitments under the Paris Agreement.

[The possible good news]

Many Parties provided information on long-term mitigation visions, strategies and targets for up to and beyond 2050, referring to climate neutrality, carbon neutrality, GHG neutrality or net zero emissions. Mindful of the inherent uncertainty of such long-term estimates, the information indicates that:
•The Parties’ collective GHG emission level could be 87–93 per cent lower in 2050 than in 2017;
•Their annual per capita emissions are estimated at 0.5–1.0 t CO2 eq for 2050, which is 87–93 per cent lower than for 2017, suggesting that by 2050 these per capita emissions will be within the range implied in the 2 ºC and 1.5 ºC with low overshoot scenarios in the SR1.5.

[it would be nice if they stuck with a standardised base line such as 2010 or 1990 rather than shifted about.]

God and ecological ethics

February 26, 2021

Religious people often assume we could solve the eco-crisis with ‘more God’, or by everyone recognising God as King, Jesus as Saviour, or Mohammed as God’s prime prophet. But these people rarely explore the issue of why it is that more recognition of God would necessarily guarantee sustainable behaviour, or whether it has in the past.

I’ve previously argued that God, or rather ‘holy books’, do not solve the problem of ethics. Indeed we may use our ethics to judge the behaviour attributed to God and wonder if such a God is ethically worthy, of being ‘the’ God. If the God is not judged worthy, then it is probable that belief declines, or the stories become symbols and allegories interpreted to save God from lack of ethics, rather than taken as events demonstrating the power and justice of God. While it is obvious that a desire to please God, or a love of God, can inspire people to do marvelous acts, it also seems correct that people often use God to justify unpleasant, or cruel, things they wish to do to others.

Some features attributed to God, may even (perhaps unintentionally) hinder an ethical relationship to the world:

  • We might assume that God’s creation is eternal and we need do little to preserve it, as it will continue whatever we do.
  • We might assume God put humans on this world to subdue it, or master it, rather than care for it.
  • We might assume the world is something to be left behind (as trash?) as believers ascend to Heaven after death or after the last judgement.
  • We might assume that we are saved by faith, or by performing the rituals, and our other actions are almost irrelevant, or that the ecology comes way down the list of important things we need to care about – such as purging non-believers, punishing sexual minorities, subduing women, making the law harmonious with the holy books and the interpretation of our favoured scholars, or whatever.
  • We might assume that eco-destruction is part of God’s plan for the final judgement, and that working to stop this from happening, is working against God or evidence of the failing of pride or presumption.
  • We might think that God models tyranny, and that leaders should be likewise and discipline everything that exists (including the natural world) without regard to the people or the ecology’s needs.
  • A person might think that Humans are special in their connection to God, and non-human creation does not matter – certainly it may matter even less than caring for the present lives and comfort of heretics or infidels.

All of these views might derail attempts at preserving ecological functionality and sustainability. They might have that effect, even if people talk about how God commands us to keep balance, look after the land, or plant trees.

Another problem for me, is that I presume that people are currently influenced by their ethics and religion, and this has not prevented us from generating ecological problems. For example Evangelical Protestants and rightwing Catholics have supported Trump and thus have supported Trump’s lessening of environmental protections and pollution control rules; Islamic states have not curtailed the sale of their oil and the destruction that results from its use, or even supported the use of renewables until relatively recently, and they do not seem to take responsibility for the results of the use of that oil, any more than other non-religious oil companies do. Many Catholics seem to oppose Pope Francis because he does not continually praise capitalism and environmental destruction, even if they previously argued that obedience to the Holy Father was fundamental to Catholicism. Few major religious, or ethical, organisations are having great success challenging the crisis – although many are making the effort.

To effectively argue that we need more God to solve the problem, we would need to show that devout and religious countries have treated their environment better, and made it better and more sustainable, than countries that do not have a strong code of belief in God. If you then argue that the US, Italy, Brazil, Saudi Arabi, Iran, Afghanistan and so on, are not really devout enough, then you are probably going beyond human capacity into fantasy, or planning to use more violence to force people into devoutness, which probably means you will use more force on ecologies as well.

If there are God believing countries that have protected their ecology, and have not contributed to ecological destruction or climate change elsewhere in the world, then we need to explore what they have done, and how it ties in with their religion, and what is different in their practice to the practices of those with a similar religion.

Another step in the argument would be to ask what religions are most likely to encourage ecological relationship. We might suggest that some forms of Buddhism (with explicit compassion towards all beings) or non-ritual Taoism (with its efforts towards living in harmony with the flow and non-domination of the world) are promising. Unfortunately, the tendency of some kinds of Buddhism to leave relationship behind, and aim for non-suffering in ’emptiness’ or ‘nothingness’ may sabotage this possibility, and non-ritual Taoism is not really an official religion by its nature. Probably, the most effective religions of relationships and care are indigenous, in which natural beings are relatively equal and have to be respected, honoured, observed, talked to and cared for, and in which relationship with country is fundamental. But these people may not worship God as such, or they may be marginal to God religions, so they are not probably those being recognised by those who want more God.

Perhaps the call (unintendedly) suggests we need a new religion, one that hallows relationships with the natural world, one that situates humans in nature, one that does not promote violence against non-believers because they clearly sin against the true religion and hence deny God, one that does not have a God that lives entirely somewhere else or implies that good humans will leave the world behind, one that does not encourage consumption and wealth accumulation, one that encourages relationship and sympathy with all beings.

It could be logically possible to construct such a religion, but artificial religions rarely take hold. However, acknowledging the apparent failure of existing religions and knowing we could need such a religion, might set creativity, inspiration and discussion going. The New Age, whatever its obvious faults of positive thinking, prosperity by accumulation, or promotion of the idea that there is no reality beyond a person’s thoughts, may be a start in that direction – who can tell at this stage? It is even possible there could be a new reformation in Christianity, or a new understanding of Islam, which does not promote violence against nature and against non-believers.

The final problem is that I’m not even sure that people make decisions based on ethics, or moral instruction. There is the problem that people also seem to choose their ethics to justify what they, or people they identify with, have done or want to do. Although it is now a cliché, religious organisations might not have been expected to protect people in their organisations who were rapists while condemning their victims, if they were ethically concerned at all, but this process seems to have been quite normal and (presumably) ethically justified. We are even learning that despite the scandal, the same attitudes seem to be being taught at elite religious private schools.

While religion may promote morality, it does not guarantee universally valid morals.

Time and Energy

February 24, 2021

This post is based on something I vaguely remember Sally Gillespie [linked in] [twitter] [Routledge] [Johmenadue] saying. This is almost a self help post, but I feel that somewhere there is something I don’t understand about reality lurking beneath. I don’t know what I’m doing here. So please excuse what is crass – or tell me in the comments so this can be better and more focused.

Time is fundamental

Time is like the currency of human life.

What you build and become comes out of time, or emerges from time.

Time is the first thing you have, possibly the only thing you have, no matter how short that time proves to be.

If you want to be a musician you have to devote time to music. If you want to be a sportsperson you devote time to your sport. If you want to be an academic you devote time to thinking, to reading (at least some other academics), observing/participating in what you are interested in and writing. If you want to be a successful or influential academic, sports person or musician, you also probably have to devote time to self-promotion and networking. This can be painful to some of us, but its nearly always true. Even if someone discovers you, you will nearly always still have to spend time in the networking. Think how much time J.K. Rowling had to spend to get her novels published in the first place. Or you can hope someone discovers you after death, and you can live with the difficulties (and advantages) of that. Or you can devote your time to becoming peaceful, or kind, or holy, where being a known success can be unimportant.

Of course devoting time, will not always lead to success, but it seems fundamental to what you become.

Energy and Time

As well as devoting time, you have to devote energy. If you just passively watch sport, you may gain an appreciation of the sport, you may even gain some skill, but you probably will not become a sportsperson. You need to put energy into a practice, an active involvement in doing. If you want to become a sports commentator or an expositor, you need to put energy into doing that.

You cannot use energy without time. You can perhaps use time without that much energy if you are meditating, but even meditating requires some energy and persistence when you had rather do something else. So energy and time seem related. In general ‘productive’ time requires energy.

Paradox of habit

Most of my blogs argue in favour of recognising complexity and even chaos. The main lesson is, I think, correct: humans cannot completely control the world or themselves. We always benefit by paying attention to the inevitable unintended consequences of what we do. We need to flow with reality and work with reality.

The way we spend time nearly always builds some kind of organisation or disorganisation.

It is probably useful, should you wish to build on what you have done, to aim for some kind of organisation in your approach, or what I’ve called creating ‘islands of order’. Sometimes being chaotic can be good. Sometimes being ordered can be good.

Devoting time to ‘something,’ builds organisation of necessity – whether that organisation/disorganisation is useful or not. Building organisation builds habits. Building disorganisation builds habits. Whatever we do in time repeatedly may build habits.

More or less by definition we can say that, ‘well organised habits can give momentum and direction to our work’, and ‘badly organised habits can disrupt momentum and direction’. For example, our society’s current form of economic organisation builds habits which disrupt our attempts to attempt to build momentum and direction for restoration of ecologies. To build momentum and direction we not only need to use time to recognise the complexity of the world, but (paradoxically) we need to take time to build well organised habits which help us observe and react to that complexity, and help build resilience, help reduce the crisis and lead to restored ecologies.

Practicing an hour a day on whatever we care about, will help us succeed. This is using time in an organised way to produce organisation in what we devote ourselves too – and that makes learning easier. This is part of becoming, and again we cannot avoid building habits. If we habitually (but perhaps unintentionally) produce disorder, or self-defeating habits, then that is what we produce.

Sometimes we may have to be prepared to throw habits away to get better, or learn something new, but that does not subvert the basic point. Humans build habits through time and energy, and they build their self-organisation, and approach to the world, in those habits.

This is the paradox. Human use of time and energy makes habit and some kind of organisation, this may not always be constructive or helpful; but it will be there. Habits may undermine what we want to do or need to do. It is probably good to ensure the habits we build are useful to flourishing and survival.

Loss of time

Time is not like a currency, because you cannot accumulate it. When its gone, its gone. As your life is time, your life is gone along with time. You have only what you have built with that time, deliberately or/and otherwise.

Things that ‘steal’ time from you steal your life and energy. Every second, your life is shorter, but every second has given you the time to build something (including habits), to be, or to become and you can’t help but choose to build, be and become. I’m not implying you will only become what you want to become, that requires attention to complexity, and useful organisation.

You build (your being? your existence? your habits) even if you ‘waste’ your time. Some people who are imprisoned or enslaved manage to build constructively – Nelson Mandela for one – but this is not easy, and there are probably limits. The point is that sometimes imprisoned people can engage in becoming, more consciously than people who are free (even if freedom is a massive advantage), because they can realise time is vital, and can manage to devote time and energy to that becoming and their constructive habits, more than to their imprisonment or slavery.

So, whatever our condition, we may need to attend to time, energy and the form of organisation/disorganisation we are building for ourselves and the world. Perhaps, to some extent, you have to co-operate with the loss of your time, to lose it completely.

In most cultures nowadays we waste the land as well as waste time. We probably waste time unconsciously just as we waste land unconsciously. But we need land just as we need time. What do we stand on, if not time and land?

Respite

Life and energy require respite. You cannot just use time to work at what you build consciously. You need rest. In other words to fully use time, you must apparently waste time. But this waste need not be laying to waste, but building respite, or building a useful island of order and recuperation. You can use time and energy to build your capacity to use time well, by doing nothing. Resting, lying fallow, is essential to time (as it is to cultivated land), but it can waste time as well. As usual, a process can be both useful and harmful depending on how it fits with organisation.

We don’t know what time is, we know it appears to pass, and it appears to consume, but it is what allows us to become, and to form the temporary ‘order’ of habit. It is why we need energy. One reason we need to eat.

I guess the point is to put time and energy into where your heart is, if you can feel where that is. If you can’t then you may need to put time and energy into finding where your heart is. You might also need to find out what habits are needed, and build on them, being prepared to change habits as you learn more. Another slogan is “learn by doing”.

The future

As a culture, we may need to stop ‘wasting’ our time or using our time unconsciously, and put our attention on to what we can find out about is happening, and that involves being aware that people will try and ‘steal’ our time, by sending us to places which waste time. Yet paradoxically, perhaps, we can only find out what is real, by being prepared to waste time.

But without spending our time and energy in some kind of organised way that recognises the potential of disorder, the world will be harder still for those who come after us.

To repeat: “Time is the first thing you have, possibly the only thing you have, no matter how short that time proves to be.” It is effectively your life.

“There have been billions of years of climate change”

February 24, 2021

People quite often object to the idea of climate change, by saying that climate has always been changing. They triumphantly point out that there have been billions of years of climate change. Temperatures have been much higher than they are now and things still lived. Life will not end. Then they ask, why is it that alarmists neglect this fact?

The problem is that we ‘alarmists’ do not ignore this fact. Indeed if you believe we do, then you are probably not getting your information about alarmism from scientists. I know of no one interested in climate change who is not aware that there have been large numbers of different climates in Earth’s history and that many different kinds of creatures who have flourished or died out in these different climate regimes. No one expects life to die out completely in the current process of climate change, either.

What some people do say is that the Holocene period, which is the one in which humanity has been living, has been remarkably stable. During that stability, humans developed civilisations, which tend to fix us in place.

We currently seem to be facing a rapid period of climate change, ecological destruction and biodiversity loss; one measured in hundreds of years, not tens of thousands of years. This will almost certainly put massive stress on civilisations, the weather conditions will change, sea levels will change, water availability will change, food availability will change. As the change is rapid the chance is high that storms will increase. People will try to move from areas which no longer seem habitable to areas which do seem habitable. All of these factors will add further stress to civilisations.

So the big problem is not climate change in itself. One problem is whether it is likely that any of the current major civilisations will be able to cope with these stresses without significant social breakdown and population death. The other problem is whether any of them will do anything to significant lower the pressures, or the rate of change.

Countries are not all in a resilient place to begin with. Some civilisations may already be breaking down irrespective of climate change.

For example, many people in the US expect income and wealth inequality to grow and standards of living to continue to decline. By some accounts many of those people already suffer from unstable low incomes, food shortages, unaffordable medicine and rampant disease, and we have only just started moving into the additional problems of climate and eco-crisis. Given the US’s inability to keep its infrastructure repaired, protect its population from Covid-19 (now over half a million dead, and unknown numbers with ‘long covid’), look after people equally or rebuild after violent storms as in Puerto Rico [1], [2], or New Orleans (still), or prevent the energy consequences of a cold snap in Texas, then it seems improbable business and government will be able to cope with severe and added difficulties. They may, but it seems sensible to reduce the magnitude of the problem in advance, if that is at all possible.

Unfortunately, dealing with this change seems to threaten the power and wealth of some powerful groups of people, and they are doing their best to persuade people that it is not a problem. And they are doing this quite well. But for them its not a problem, they figure the ordinary folks will be the ones that suffer, and they can ride it out. They have wealth, they can buy violent protection, they can buy technology that will keep them safe. They may be even be correct, but do you want to sacrifice yourself, your friends and family to preserve these people’s power?

We can stick with helping the crisis to happen if we want, or we can ‘do the research’ overcome the misinformation being distributed, and try to think of solutions. If you really do think that people who are worried about climate change never consider that climate change has occurred in the past, then you might also want to think about why the people giving you your information about climate change alarmists are lying, and why.

Complexity and Philosophy

February 22, 2021

Complexity theory, challenges standard Western philosophy, which is possibly why so many people seem to find understanding it difficult. This is a place where I will put those challenges as they occur to me.

1) Interdependence and interaction

  • Everything that exists, seems to exist in interactive ecologies.
  • ‘Being’ seems connected.
  • All ‘individual beings’ depend on others for their particular existence. Lone individuals, as far as we know, do not exist as ‘lone’ for their entire lives/existences.
  • Buddhist ideas of ‘dependent causation,’ ‘dependent arising’, or ‘dependent origination’ seem to be reasonable approximate descriptions of what actually happens (although we do not have to accept their usual statements about reincarnation).
  • As a consequence of this idea of interdependence, it appears that humans are not separate from ‘nature’. They depend on ‘nature’.

2) Flux and process

  • Everything which exists is constantly in flux along with everything else. Life flows.
  • Some processes are much slower than others, and so they might seem static from a human point of view, but they are still processes.
  • There may be no eternal, or static, units of being.
  • ‘Archetypes’ and ideas are probably local and temporal.
  • We assume that ‘regularities in process’, or the laws of nature, can be unchanging, but we don’t know for sure – certainly everything else changes. Stars do not seem constant over billions of years.
  • Small events can produce large scale change in certain circumstances (which we may not be able to define in advance).
  • Taoism seems to be useful beginning for reflection

3) A degree of unpredictability and uncertainty are normal

  • Humans cannot predict exactly what will happen in the future, but we can often make good guesses. We can also make very bad guesses.
  • This is just a fact of life.
  • Unpredictability does not mean pure randomness. Evolved complex systems generally oscillate around a stable point – this is called homeostasis and produces a degree of regularity in the flux, at any moment.
  • This degree of regularity means that while we may not know exactly what will happen next we may have some idea. We can expect that people will fall downwards towards the Earth. Our house will not disappear, even if it could collapse. We do not expect that, without some major intervention, pigs will grow wings and fly under their own power.
  • The system does not appear completely random, but it is not completely predictable. A word which has been coined for this state of affairs is “impredictability”; it aims to recognise the normal reality of ‘regularity within limits’ together with the apparent lack of complete certainty in anticipation.

4) Problems of models and understanding

  • In complexity, the only true models of the systems are, generally, the systems themselves.
  • As humans generally do not have a complete understanding of all the complex systems involved in a situation, they cannot completely control complex systems, although they can affect them.
  • As a result unintended consequences are a normal feature of human life.
  • We have to live amidst this uncertainty, regularity and unexpectedness. We should expect unintended consequences.
  • Dogma is almost certainly going to prove incorrect and inadequate as a guide to the future.
  • A statement about what is true at one moment, may not be as effective or accurate at another moment.
  • Being aware of what we don’t know is probably useful to survival, but it is also useful not to simply hope that events will not go badly despite our expectations. We don’t normally hope we can jump out of an aeroplane in full flight without any other technology and survive all the time.
  • Uncertainty about the absolute truth of any statement is probably more prevalent than real clear certainty.
  • Statements have degrees of approximation to reality.
  • We learn by doing, and by attending to unexpected, or discomforting, events, and fixing them as best we can.
  • If we develop policies we should probably regard those policies as experiments, and be prepared to modify them as the results come in.
  • Recognising degrees of failure is important to living within complexity.
  • That statements may be ‘true’, does not mean there is a thing we can call ‘truth’.

5) Boundaries, are not always clear

  • The boundaries between living and dead are not always precise.
  • ‘Matter’ interactively organises, or self-organises, as well as dissolves.
  • As we are constantly in interaction the boundaries between beings are not always precise. We breathe each others’ air, we absorb and transform language, ideas and food. We share continually with other beings.
  • The boundaries between human and non-human are not clear. Mitochondria may be parasites. Most of your weight may come from organisms which are not genetically related to you, but which affect, or even drive, human process.
  • It does not always appear easy, appropriate or entirely accurate to separate a system from its ‘environment’ for purposes of study. This is especially so, if we then proceed to try and render the environment inert, without ongoing interactive effect on the system.

6) Minds and Systems

  • Interdependence and boundary vagueness imply there are no lone or purely bounded ‘minds’.
  • Minds are interactive, they grow and learn in interaction with each other and the world. They learn together.
  • Minds do not appear to end with the individual’s skin, or with the individual.
  • Thinking occurs not only with others, but through learnt language, technology, cultural tools, and ‘natural phenomena’ (trees, objects, creatures, rooms), and the responses and resistances felt, used and observed.
  • Minds are possibly distributed through ecological systems; we learn amidst minds, encouragements and resistances.
  • Human minds (and possibly others) are not born intact or complete – we all have childhoods and learn as we develop.
  • Using our adult mind as a guide to minds or awareness in general, is likely to be fallacious.
  • Not all minds have to be the same, and mind of some sort seems dependent on, and distributed through, the world.
  • That humans seem to have relatively good minds, does not mean that other beings are without minds.

7) Non-Harmony in Holism

  • That everything depends on the presence of others, and interaction with others, implies holism. The whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and the whole influences the parts. The individual is born into, or thrust into, the whole. The individual does not exist without the whole. Yet the whole is not necessarily harmonious.
  • Evolution occurs because of imbalance and failure. Failure to replicate completely perfectly, failure to survive, failure to meet competition, failure to adapt to change in the rest of the system.
  • Competition is real. Co-operation is equally real.
  • As has already been proposed, if a system has been stable for a long time, it is probably relatively harmonious and homeostatic. It is likely to be robust and resilient within limits, but should anything significant change (weather, a new creature arrives, a normal creature has an abnormal reproductive burst, a geological event occurs) then harmony may be disrupted, and change may occur quite rapidly. We may not know precisely what events are ‘significant’ in this sense, until afterwards.
  • Systems can heal, if we stop disrupting them, but not always.
  • Complex systems are adaptive; that is they work towards balance and homeostasis, but that balance and stability need not be beneficial for all members of the system. Complex systems can appear to be maladaptive from the perspective of those they are eliminating. There is no guarantee that humans and ecological systems will always be able to live together. There is even less guarantee that all social systems can exist in interaction with all other complex systems.
  • While we humans are part of a whole, we are not One in the sense that we are all the same, or all similar, or all working harmoniously together all the time. Complexity implies variety.
  • Attempts to enforce ‘oneness’ will almost certainly have harmful consequences for everyone.

8) Hierarchy?

  • Complex systems may have hierarchies, in that some systems (for example planetary) include or overlap with many lower level systems (such as a stream or a lake).
  • However, those more general systems ‘higher’ in the hierarchy may not fully determine what happens at a lower level, although they may influence events.
  • Complex hierarchies are not ideal human hierarchies in which those people at the top command those below, or have a better life than those below, because they supposedly deserve it.
  • What happens below has a large degree of independence, and can eventually influence the top level systems, as has occurred when bacteria started producing oxygen billions of years ago, or when humans started to destroy planetary boundaries.
  • Complex hierarchies involve transmission of influence, in both directions.
  • Real human hierarchies are often like this as well.

9) Order and Chaos are intertwined

  • What we might call order and chaos are co-existent, not different realms.
  • Human attempts to produce order, often produce what the orderers call chaos or disorder. Especially if the ideas of order are dogmatic or ideal, rather than attentive to reality, flux and unintended consequences.
  • Complete order approximates death.
  • Life is disorderly. The more alive something is, the less predictable it is.
  • ‘Sustainability’, in the sense of maintaining a particular order forever, is impossible. However the only alternative is not just destruction, as it can be possible to work within the flux, and help maintain a beneficial homeostasis.
  • Ethics can never be about establishing complete order, but it could be about making temporary homeostatic ‘islands of beneficial order’ for all or most beings.

10) Ethics is situational and uncertain

  • As ecologies flux, no situations are ever completely the same. Relationships change.
  • What is right, just, or ethical in one situation may not be in another, no matter how similar they appear (they will differ).
  • Ethics is a form of decision making with regard to a probably uncertain and imagined future. Ethics cannot be abstracted from the other systems present; political, religious, technological, ‘natural’ or whatever.
  • Ethics becomes visible when there is ethical dispute. Dispute is central to ethics. Ethics will probably never guarantee harmony.
  • Most, perhaps all, ideas and actions have ethical consequences, as they play out through the system.
  • The consequences are likely to be unintended.
  • Ethical ethics may involve care and attention to unintended consequences, after the act of deciding, to make sure the results are ethically acceptable.
  • Insisting a decision is ethical without attending to results will probably lead to disastrous, or cruel, behaviour.
  • Ethics is probably part of our understanding of the cosmos and how it works.
  • Because of uncertainty, ethics involves imagining what we need to do, and what the consequences of those acts will be.
  • Ethics involves imagining the reactions of others, and the level to which we can identify with those others.
  • That is ethics may be built upon imagination, empathy and sympathy.
  • If we imagine a complete difference between ourselves and others, then our ethics towards those beings will probably be different and harsher.
  • As events are interconnected, and boundaries are uncertain it is not easy to say where ethical ‘ethical responsibility’ ends.
  • As ecologies promote life, we probably should not abstain from ethical responsibility towards ecologies, should we wish to survive.
  • David Hume’s point still stands, that because human ethics is based on the way humans behave, does not mean that such behaviour is necessarily ethical. A descriptive statement is not necessarily a proscriptive statement. There may be an unbridgeable gap between an ‘is’ statement and an ‘ought’ statement.
  • There may be no basis for ethics independent of ethics. Ethical relativism is not immoral (as often claimed), it could be an ethical position, which involves a hesitation to condemn.
  • Ideas of God may not not provide a basis for ethics. However, the ethics associated with God, can provide a ethical basis for judging the reports of that God’s behaviour. Is it consistent? Is it good? Or do we have to excuse God from behaviour we would judge as bad if performed by someone else? Can any supposedly all-powerful and all-intelligent God who punishes people with eternal torture be described as purely good?

11) God

  • If God created, or engineered, a world of variety, complexity and uncertainty (for us), what does that tell us about God?

Conceiving Politics

February 21, 2021

This is a redoing of some earlier posts on this blog about the question of how do we define and specify ‘politics’. The aim is to replace the idea that politics is something done by others in Parliament, or in the State, and reclaim the idea that politics involves everyone who lives in society.

Defining politics in general

Politics involves the attempts by individuals or groups of people to decide upon, or achieve, an aim which involves (or affects) themselves and/or other people. Politics includes the ways people go about organising themselves and persuading others to go along with them. Politics can manifest between groups, and between individuals within groups.

Politics necessarily happens all the time because we live with other people, and people acting together can often be much more effective in achieving aims than can individuals acting alone. People also tend to get satisfaction from being in groups acting and being together. Politics (persuasion of others, building co-operation, fostering attacks, etc.) is usually involved whenever we try to solve problems, and social life frequently involves attempts towards solving problems.

Everyone engages in politics, in the family, in the village, in the city, in the company, in the University, in the State, and in World wide organisations. From children deciding what games to play, or who should be on what team, to ministers trying to persuade other countries to surrender, humans are constantly trying to work with others, organise work and celebration with others, organise conflict with others, trying to get the better of others, trying to persuade others, trying to threaten others, trying to flatter others, trying to help others, trying to discover the truth of a situation, trying to hide the truth, trying to frame the truth in a way which suits us, or trying to make the good life with others.

To live harmoniously with others, we have to learn how to negotiate, compromise and get those others onside as best we can. However, as well as being relatively peaceable, politics can be ruthless, involving the capacity for threat and violence, or of defering threat and violence. It involves exerting power and resisting power, negotiating consensus and allocating dissensus, asserting hierarchy and equalities. Certain people can be excluded from the political field, and can assert, and possibly force their inclusion in that field. Politics can be about meaning and understanding: about the struggle over the ‘correct’ meanings and consequences of words and concepts, because undersanding words in particular ways can guide behaviour.

The social field is political

The social field is inherently political and involves struggle. Ethical and moral struggles also tend to be political, and we tend to evaluate people on ‘our side,’ or in our social categories, differently from other people – usually (but not always) being more likely to excuse their failings.

While the politics of the State may look different, have different modes of enforcement, have different effects from the politics of the home or the workplace, all politics involve similar kinds of processes.

The same kind of skills are deployed in the family as are needed to be employed in the village, in the township and so on, to make decisions, to organise people, to work and celebrate or whatever. Political processes in daily life and political processes in the State are similar, even if the range of their effect is quite different.

Politics can be seen to involve idea generation, persuasion, co-operation, competition, decision making, allocating responsibility, allocating authority, overcoming entrenched and no longer useful authority, gaining ability, gaining virtue, rewarding virtue, rewarding beneficial aspiration, and so on. It does not necessarily involve harmony, and can spiral out into civil (or other) war.

Politics sets up a complex system as it inevitably involves people reacting to other people and to circumstances as they arise.

Aristotle and politics

That social life is inherently political and that people are rarely completely outside some form of politics, is a view with considerable antiquity. As is well known Aristotle wrote that

animals that live politically are those that have any kind of activity in common, which is not true of all gregarious animals,

Politics involves the building of activity in common, not just living together.

humans are by nature political animals [or ‘political life forms’, Zoon politikon]. And he who by nature and not by mere accident is without a Polity, is either above humanity, or below it.

The suggestion is that normal humans are political creatures, and Aristotle appears to argue, this arises because people cannot perform their natural functions apart from the polity, since they cannot be completely self-sufficient throughout their entire lives. Thus, the Polity (my way of translating polis, usually translated as ‘state’ or ‘city state’ or even ‘social organisation’) comes into existence to enable human life. He takes a more or less anthropological position that:

The polity is prior in nature to the household and to each of us individually.

We are born into a polity, or society. This is because we build our function, abilities and capacities through our relationships to others. Households and individuals do not exist by themselves.

For the whole must necessarily be prior to the part… [as] all things are defined by their function and capacity, so that when they are no longer able to perform their function [within the whole] they must not be said to be the same things.

In other words, humans develop their capacities and virtues in relationship to other humans within already existing modes of organisation. We come into being amidst creative others (this is I think important to Aristotle’s idea of humanity as implied in the Rhetoric, the Poetics and On the Soul, and is in any case always important to recognise). To use terms which will be important later we live in systems (some of which are non-human) with histories or trajectories. The polity is, according to Aristotle, the way humans can come to craft a good and human life the best way they can. The Polity is necessary to make a better polity. The polity does not have to be a State, but usually a large scale polity has state-like structures.

We can fault Aristotle because he does not take his definition of politics seriously enough. He does not seem to object to the idea that political systems can work to exclude people (such as women, slaves and inevitably people below some arbitrary age). This can come to seem natural, but it is political.

Politics, complexity and uncertainty

Complexity means we cannot define politics so that it has to be successful, or result in any firm control over the world. The best we can hope for is to influence, or effect on the world – working with the world, perhaps – and then check events as they occur to see if we are getting the results we anticipated. This is the nature of the world. Life is further made complicated because people can agree over what they don’t want, but split over what they do want.

Many human activities do not achieve what people hope to gain. Most art will be forgotten or thrown out. Doctors do not heal everyone, and in some cases damage people even more. Many families will be unhappy despite the best efforts of those involved. Failure and unintended consequences are a normal part of engaging in life.

Success is never a measure of something occuring, and of course we live with moral uncertainty, and all other kinds of uncertainty, that still does not mean we don’t engage in politics with each other whether we object to those politics or not. Indeed, I would suggest that certainty of action and solution, is probably the hallmark of a politics which will fail to produce beneficial results for most people. The more certain or self-destructive the culture, the more deletarious unintended consequences are likely to arise. Climate change is a great example of what seems to be an unintended consequences of particular modes of social organisation and their politics.

However, politics nearly always attempts to create an order which it attempts to establish or defend.

Policing

There is also a form of politics which, following Jacques Ranciere, we can call policing. This is about continuing and defending established behaviours and categories. Ranciere sees this form of politics purely as a policing of established order. It does not involve much in the way of negotiation, or recognition of others as more than obedient, needing to move on from failure, or needing punishment.

Ranciere reduces politics to the politics between potential recognised equals or politics which is about gaining such equality, and the politics which is policing. However, as Davis points out, even succesful egalitarian politics may still involve policing, as people try to stop the system being commandeered by those who would destroy it, or prevent some recognition of some part of the polity. As is well known, this attempt is at best paradoxical, as stopping people from preventing others participating, may involve ceasing to recognise the ‘stoppers’ as being legitimate participants. That this is paradoxical does not mean it is not real part of politics, or that it can be eliminated.

Neoliberal policing

Neoliberalism aims to make ‘the market’ (or really corporate power) the dominant and non challengable power in human life and politics. The market is supposedly better than other parts of human life, because it is described as ‘non-political’. As a result, every human action and production becomes reduced to trade, and mutual decision making becomes an impingement on individual liberty, especially when it interferes with trade. For neoliberals, the ideal forms of evil organisation are the State or the Trade Union (and people must be encouraged to have no hope in the State or unions), and the truly good form is the company – where you get told what to do, unless you own and control the organisation. Apparently ordinary people are all individuals, and should never act together, and organisation should be reserved for the powerful and their economic/political activity. The State only exists to defend the exclusive rights of business people. Libertarians rarely seem to have the same strength of objection to the wealthy or business people acting together – perhaps because they realise this would affect the political effectiveness of these people, and the force of capitalism.

Because neoliberals only give importance to established business interests, they have no regard for ecology. Things which cannot be restricted in ownership and priced have no value. There is no common good, only private good and private profit.

Politics as protest

Neoliberals want to keep us ignorant, of the scale and success of peaceful popular movements against corporate power. For example, 20 million Americans joined protests for the first Earth Day. Who knows that nowadays? Who nowadays is allowed to think anything other than that environmentalism is a minor, non-mainstream, interest? So we cannot ask how it was that people in the US fought against flaming, poisonous rivers, and deadly work conditions, and temporarily succeeded?

This may have happened because in that pre-neoliberal period people knew that politics was part of daily life. “The personal is political.” Any ethical decision making that involves others, involves politics. It is now pretty much orthodoxy to leave the State to the wealthy, and assume nothing can be done to make things better.

While politics is essential for joint-human activity, it need not mean “power over others,” or constant dishonesty. Politics does not have to be ruthless. It is possible that the more ruthless the politics (especially official politics), the less ‘ordinary people’ may feel inclined to participate, if they morally disapprove of ruthlessness or are frightened of the consequences of participation. Indeed presenting politics as ruthless or corrupt, may be one way to foster lesser participation by people in general (other than as providing a backdrop of support). Ruthless politics may well be less about ideas and ethics, than about victory.

An anarchist, communitarian, politics is possible, even if it is precarious. Indeed we might well define a politics which only requires power over and dishonesty as defining a bad polity, which is headed for disaster and requires reformation.

Activists (such as Greta Thunberg) may not be playing power and dominance games but trying to reform the current polity, craft the best possible polity, and to continue survival for everyone. However, because of this, she is involved in politics, and being made part of power and dominance struggles, by those who are attempting to preserve a disastrous polity, or their place within it. This currently involves lots of abuse. Some of those engaged in this kind of abuse politics, are pretending that they are not political, because, in their politics, doing nothing to challenge the processes of destruction is supposed to seem normal. Challenging the establishment may always seem more political than leaving it alone. The established have more capacity for distributing abuse than their challengers. This is one way of promoting exclusion and limiting the political field. The end result is probably totalitarianism.

Polity with Nature

Just as we can hope for a politics which allows maximal human participation, we can hope that those capacities and virtues crafted within the crafting of the Polity (especially a healthy polity), can extend outwards to the land, and to other life forms. We have to live with our land, other life forms and within the boundaries of the planet. Destroying land, other life forms and planetary boundaries, forms a highway to disaster. Having a politics with beings that cannot use language is difficult, but I would suggest not impossible. Partly it involves recognition and formal incorporation, just as we can recognise children, and domesticated animals, and place their treatment within the concerns of the polity. It is a request that we extend our empathy found within our own identity categories, to the world as a whole. Even if the process is ultimately impossible, and people have to speak for other beings, then we still have to do it, if we wish to survive.

I suggest that one way of getting there is through practices of listening – or Dadirri. Many indigenous peoples have traditions of incorporating land and other creatures into their decision making processes. People who live in States could possibly attempt to learn from them.

Because ecologies change and relationships between different groups or different polities change, the work of making the good polity is never ending. It never reaches permanent stability or perfection. The polity is likely to face new challenges and new problems, which it has to face creatively.

Summary

People organise themselves together with others as part of normal social life, because they can achieve more as organised groups, and get enjoyment from that, if it is self-motivated. People also have to live together, and interact with each other, and solve the problems that all or some of them face. This all involves politics. We can call call this activity a polity. Polities can exist within polities, and include polities. Politics can be creative, maintaining, or repressive.

Politics can also involve force and exclusion, both at the local level and the level of the State. Social life and political life are rarely separable. We are born into a polity, and political relationships and interactions, exist before we can participate, even if our participation changes them.

Politics generates a complex system, and takes place within complex systems. It is inherently uncertain. Ideas we campaign for, may not be accurate. A healthy politics should probably remember this, so that it can change, and create new ideas which are more accurate and helpful for the polity.

In the English speaking world, the dominant form of politics for the last 40 years has been neoliberal politics. This centralises the importance of business, minimalises the importance of any other form of human activity, supports other activities to the extent they support business, and suppresses recognition of corporate power and decisions, through the idea of the impersonal market which, magically, always generates the best result. In this framework, attacks on business dominance, are attacks on the market and therefore bad.

Because neoliberalism centralises established business dominance, it also defends the right of business to destroy ecology, pollute, disperse materials and poison people, as if ‘the market’ demands this destruction for profit, then this is the best that can occur.

It is however possible to conceive the idea of expanding politics, so that it involves the land, other beings and planetary boundaries, and we need to start on the road towards that kind of politics, and put aside the politics that says only business, the market and the State really count.

Quick submission to the inquiry into the Gas fired Recovery Plan

February 17, 2021

First of all: if Gas is a viable industry that serves Australian people and makes a profit, why does it need government assistance? It is an established industry, not path-breaking, nor needing initial support to take off. It is pretty clearly not the future, as it is likely to be superseded if we really do gain emissions targets. Given this, it looks like a taxpayer subsidy, or kickback to people on the National COVID‑19 Commission Advisory Board, who could have the appearance of primarily aiming their recommendations at private benefit.

Second: again as I understand it, the pipelines that are being suggested are massively expensive. If the companies are viable why are they not paying the money? If the companies are not viable, why are we paying for it?

Third: why is money not being spent on electricity infrastructure, where the problems of lack of infrastructure is clear, and the problems of generating commercial builds are also quite clear? Improving electricity infrastructure would benefit a range of industries and, if well designed, provide the energy to help set up industries in Australian Country Towns. This could generate a national resurgence of jobs. Electricity infrastructure benefits everyone, not just a particular set of companies, and helps us to a better future.

Fourth: recent research has shown, that gas drilling sites and gas pipes leak, particularly old pipes in the city. The pipes are hard to monitor and hard to repair (again especially in cities). This leakage does not make gas a low emissions fuel. The methane leakage generates more climate change than carbon dioxide leakage in the short term. Gas companies have little incentive to repair leaking pipes if the leakage is not so bad that it impacts profit, or is likely to cause a major explosion.

Fifth: given the known problems with greenhouse gas emissions, why are taxpayers funding a source of energy that will help endanger the country? Gas emissions will help increase droughts, poison water and destroy the farming sector.

Sixth: in many places there are issues with gas contaminating bore water – particularly on the Eastern side of Australia. Much of Australia depends on bore water. While it may be possible that gas companies can absolutely guarantee that no bore water will be affected for 20-30 years (the difficulties of tracing pollution makes it impossible to be sure), they cannot guarantee safety over hundreds of years. Concrete rots, steel and welding decays, natural phenomena add stress over time. If we want to preserve our farming industry we have to think in terms of thousands of years, especially given the likelihood of increasing severity of droughts.

Seventh: if the EU, China, or the US installs Carbon tariffs which seems likely, as there is no reason they should protect foreigners who, from their point of view, freeload on carbon emissions, then taxpayers are helping to undermine Australia’s export industries.

The whole project of a gas lead recovery, seems to be a way to trap Australia into greenhouse gas emitting fuels, and to endanger our future prosperity. It should be abandoned.

Weather, Climate, Climate Change

February 16, 2021

The difference between weather and climate is important, but trends in weather can be symptomatic of climate change. While one day of cold does not mean climate is cooling and one hot day does not mean climate is warming, if the trend is that average temperatures keep increasing, and do not decrease or return to whatever your normal is defined as, or go beneath that normal, then you are possibly observing climate change in the form of global warming.

If it turns out you have warming averages over a period of 50 years or so, and most of the hottest years in recorded history have occurred in the last 20 years, then you can go and look to see if you have confirmatory evidence of climate warming.

  • You might look to see if glaciers are contracting, which they seem to be.
  • Polar ice caps also seem to be shrinking or thinning, so much so that people are even talking about sailing near the north pole.
  • Hot days seem to be more frequent and are coming in strings rather than as disconnected events.
  • Days over 45 degrees C might have once been rare but are now not that rare and come together. You may even see days of 50 degrees which previously did not occur.
  • Droughts seem to be increasing in hotter areas of the world.
  • We have forest fires all over the world which are often described by fire fighters as unprecedented, and previously rare fire behaviours seem to be becoming more common (at least they are where I live).
  • Some forests which we don’t think have burned for thousands of years have burnt, even if they were isolated from other fires.
  • Coral reefs are suffering large scale bleaching, almost certainly from heat.
  • Tropical fish are reportedly moving away from the equator…

If you look you may find further evidence suggestive of climate change.

Then you might ask what evidence is there for the idea that climate change is not happening? Is there any evidence of increasing cold, more glaciation and so on? Is there evidence climate is not changing, other than assertions climate scientists are lying, because it cannot be true. Not very much I can see, but you would expect some uneven weather behaviour given weather is a complex system.

To me, it looks as though global warming is occurring. The next question is, “Is this a problem?”

Some people may assert that heat is good. Well yes it is, up to a point. Humans find it difficult to work outdoors when its over 45 degrees C, they are also more likely to die of heat stroke. Extreme heat usually means that water evaporates and goes somewhere else. Some rainfalls will decline, some will increase. That does not mean the change will be good. Humans only flourish within a relatively small temperature range. Deserts, hot or cold, are not easy to survive in, although people can if they have the right tech for a while.

More carbon dioxide might increase some plant growth, but it also harms some plant growth, it’s not simple, it may even depend on other factors such as soil nitrogen content. But even if it was simple, it is unlikely that plant growth will solve the problem of climate change, or increase food production by enough to compensate for the loss elsewhere, especially if the heat is killing the plants. Eventually evolution will sort this out. Plants will change, but that will take a long time.

More heat will almost certainly increase methane release from under frozen tundras, and this will add to the quick warming effects. It will compound the problem

Is Climate Change serious? I happen to think so, because rapid changes in complex systems generally produce wild instabilities as the systems attempt to find equilibrium amidst the disruption. Weather can be very destructive. Human societies seem to have collapsed previously with even mild changes of climate, so we need to exhibit care, not pretense that nothing important is happening, however nice it might be if nothing was happening.

We can predict global warming would happen as greenhouse gases increase. Indeed people have predicted this for a long while.

As far as I can see there is no real alternate explanations which check out (at the moment).

If the warming is created by the increase in greenhouse gas, there is no reason to expect that the trend of warming is going to go away without action to reduce those gases.

Therefore it seems sensible to me, to reduce those gases if at all possible, and reduce them quickly, before we get truly disastrous levels of climate change and have no hope of calming the system.

While other events could possibly happen and we could thrive under global warming, it seems foolish to depend on those other unlikely, and unforeseen, events happening.

It also seems likely that reducing fossil fuel use may well have other pleasant consequences. Fewer people might die of poisoning and particulate pollution. Less ecological damage would need to be repaired. Life would be cleaner. So why not embrace the challenge of dealing with the problem rather than running away from it?