Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

“Cuddly History”

September 19, 2023

Cuddly history is a history that is comforting and unreal.

It aims to tell its readers or hearers, that they and their ancestors and their nation never did anything terribly wrong, disreputable, cruel or which had long-term or unintended conequences.

It often invokes moral relativism: “Oh in those days it didn’t count” or “it couldn’t have happened anyway” or “It dosn’t matter what happened then, because we are all equal now.” “‘left wing’ history is just stirring up trouble”,

The cuddly version reeassures people that they can’t be being bad when they continue to treat people badly.

Its a way of removing all discomfort. Especially the discomfort of awareness….

Examples

“Colonialism had no ill effects on indigenous people, and indeed improved life for all them in the long term.” This is usually stated if any one mentions the death rate of colonisation. Because of this, no one needs to talk about the present day in which indigenous people generally live in poverty, and have their lands (should they still have them), stripped away and given to miners, or get imprisoned regularly.

“They would have been worse off if it wasn’t for us” A variation on the first point, they should really be thanking us for massacring them, taking their land and often their children.

“If people died out, then it was because they were inferior, and could not accept our superior culture. They were weak. We tried, but sadly could not keep them alive.”

In Australia: “We never had slavery, they worked because they liked being in chains and it was good for them. It gave them discipline, and strutured time, all essential for civilisation. It was a minor issue anyway, and they heard the Gospel, and its over now.”

In the USA: “Slaves were treated as members of the family, and learnt a lot from us that they would never have learnt otherwise, like agriculture…..”

“Slavery was not our fault, it was the fault of those Africans and Muslims who sold their country men and women”.

“We are all equal now, and blacks just whinge and won’t get off their arses. There’s no racism any more. It’s the best of all possible worlds”

“People should become happy workers like we are, its the best system and never did anyone any harm”

“The Market is a beautiful scheme which produces balance and prosperity. Allegations that it also brought murder and dispossession, are communist fantasies. Capitalists have no interest in harming anyone. All the conditions and prosperity that workers have, was given to them freely by their masters. They certainly never needed to fight for it. Capitalism was brought by God.”

“Nazis were left wing” This is often said by the same people welcoming Nazis to Trump rallies

“Women enjoyed being raped and threatened at the time….. Its just a bit of fun…”

“‘All men’ are not responsible for women’s experience of oppression, so leave all men alone. Any bad situatuation was brought on themselves by women who crave strong men, or as part of the necessary protection of women from ???? men..,.” “It was a bit rough in them days, but women were respected and protected – if they were good and obedient.” “Rape in marriage is impossible by definition.”

During the recent debates on abortion in the US, some (and I emphasise some) Republicans where arguing that there did not need to be an exception allowing abortion in cases of rape, because women could only get pregnant if they enjoyed it – otherwise their reproductive mechanisms would just shut down. Unwanted pregnancy is always the sinful woman’s fault.”

“We were invaded too. Never harmed us. Should we demand recompense from the Vikings and the Romans? There are far worse people than us, and we got over it.”

Conclusion

Our group is always good and virtuous. We did the right thing, and if anyone suffered it was their own fault, and inability to change, due to adherence to savage traditions.

We decalre that everything is ok now (no racism or sexism), so every thing was ok then.

I feel so good knowing this, and don’t have to listen to anything else…..

Its sooo cuddly warm and comfy

Project 2025

September 8, 2023

We have had 40 years of neoliberalism. The incredibly influential corporate think-tank the Heritage Foundation‘s Project 2025 [1],[2],[3], is an attempt to boost that movement even further under the next Trump Administration. If accepted, which is likely, this will have a huge effect on the USA’s willingness to have anything to do with reducing fossil fuel burning, or preserving ecologies.

Neoliberalism, has resulted in a crisis of living for most of the population: lower wages, worse working conditions, greater debt (especially for education), less social mobility, less affordable housing, fewer and harsher prospects for people’s children, greater inequality of riches and power, and so on. Neoliberalism has been a significant contributor to extending and intensifying ecological destruction and the failure of action on climate change. The main focus of neoliberalism is to disqualify any governmental action that:

  • Impinges on corporate power or profit,
  • Involves government planing for the future
  • Involves government planning for ‘justice’ or support for the lower classes

The aim is to leave everything to The Market, a God whose invisible hand always delivers wealth to the virtuous and the talented. Leaving things to The Market also tends to benefit established power and wealth, as they have succeeded in that Market and the politics of that Market. The secret doctrine is that the only time governments should intervene is when powerful corporations are threatened by their own stupidity, and the intervention should be free taxpayer-funded cash to do what they like with (pay emergency bonuses etc).

The rich elites argue that the main problems the world faces is that we don’t have enough neoliberalism, and that the few, weak attempts to contain climate change interfere with corporate liberty. They also note that China, which does not pursue neoliberalism, is possibly becoming a powerful economic threat. This implies neoliberalism is not that great at promoting prosperous economies.

Neoliberal policies require ordinary people to give up hope that they can participate in their own government at any level. These policies also lead to the branding of any dissent as ‘marxist,’ ‘politically correct,’ ‘woke’ etc and to proposals to crush dissent as un-American or un-Australian or whatever. This could display the potential weakness of contemporary capitalists: dissent and ecological challenges must be slurred, suppressed or avoided. All news must aspire to Murdochism (ie Fox, Australian Sky etc)

The newest neoliberal attack on liberty, in support of Tump, is called Project 2025 and comes from the American Heritage Foundation and other corporate think thanks.

The Background

The American Heritage Foundation has long been at the heart of rightwing politics in the US. As they say:

the Trump administration relied heavily on Heritage’s “Mandate” for policy guidance, embracing nearly two-thirds of Heritage’s proposals within just one year in office.”

https://www.project2025.org/about/about-project-2025/

How many people knew that when they voted for Trump they were really voting for a corporate think-tank, which has been bought by the hyper-rich? Or that Trump would not clean up the swamp, but enthusiastically embed special interests into his Presidency? This is not an idea which originates with ‘Trump haters’ but which is pointed out by the servants of those financial elites themselves.

Lets be clear these people have no false modesty, as they say in their manifesto for Project 2025, The Mandate for Leadership: the Conservative Promise [this seems to have been hidden from the people again! try https://static.project2025.org/2025_MandateForLeadership_FULL.pdf It will probably be moved again later]

one set of eyes reading these passages [in this proposal] will be those of the 47th President of the United States

Mandate: xiii

It may be somewhat unlikely to be being read by the 47th President if it’s Trump, as it is a long and fairly boring book, but someone may point-form some of it for him (more freedom to make money, more tax cuts, ignore climate change, more fossil fuels etc). It would be surprising if they did not already have someone on the Trump team to do that. Remember this Project is well financed and well connected. It will be implemented unless voted out.

They give some more background history, showing their elite influence on US poltics:

In the winter of 1980, the fledging Heritage Foundation handed to President-elect Ronald Reagan the inaugural Mandate for Leadership. This collective work by conservative thought leaders and former government hands—most of whom were not part of Heritage—set out policy prescriptions, agency by agency for the incoming President. The book literally put the conservative movement and Reagan on the same page, and the revolution that followed might never have been, save for this band of committed and volunteer activists

Mandate: xiii

By the end of that year, more than 60 percent of its recommendations had become policy

Mandate: 2.

So they are telling us that the Reagan years, with:

  • the destruction of the American economy,
  • the outsourcing of government operations which led to increase in costs and declines in services,
  • the collapse of S&Ls through deregulation which left some people very rich and others without their life savings,
  • the asset stripping of companies undervalued on the stock market which led to the loss of functional US companies and local jobs,
  • the return of frequent boom and bust cycles which from which the rich were bailed out and the poor and middle class left to rot,
  • the beginning of outsourcing jobs to China and other cheap labor countries,
  • the decline of wages and security
  • the overspending on the military
  • the increase of government debt because of that spending together with massive tax cuts to the wealthy.
  • the stripping back of those State services which helped people and gave them some levels of security because they ‘cost too much’ and supposedly supported ‘welfare queens,’
  • the support for murderous pro-corporate dictatorships in Latin America (The founding of neoliberalism occurred under Pinochet in Chile)
  • the boosting of people who would become the USA’s most destructive enemies (the Taliban, Iraq, Iran etc).
  • The induced collapse of Russia into Organised Crime Capitalism which led to a massive decline in Russia’s population (through starvation?) and eventually to Putin.

All of this, can all be traced to the American Heritage Foundation, by their own boasts.

Fighting against Democracy

They rather oddly comment about:

elite support for economic globalization. For 30 years, America’s political, economic, and cultural leaders embraced and enriched Communist China and its genocidal Communist Party while hollowing out America’s industrial base.

Mandate: 11

and

Unfettered trade with China has been a catastrophe. It has made a handful of American corporations enormously profitable while twisting their business incentives away from the American people’s needs…

America’s elites have betrayed the American people

11-12

For some reason they forget to mention that the elites in question were the neoliberal capitalist wealth elites who support Heritage and neoliberalism. Capitalism has always been global, always seeking cheap resources, cheap labour and cheap pollution. It was the neoliberals who hollowed out America’s industrial base, with the full support of the Republican Party. It was also the neoliberal elites that tried to shut down ‘left wing’ anti-neoliberal-globalism. The Left was protesting about how this kind of globalism increased corporate power, ending both national sovereignty and attempts at making a ‘helpful’ State across the globe.

History apparently can be hammered into an ‘acceptable shape’ with enough repetition and power.

I’m also not quite sure why anyone would be proud of causing and boosting all these problems, but they do add that:

The late 1970s were by any measure a historic low point for America and the political coalition dedicated to preserving its unique legacy of human flourishing and freedom

Mandate: 1

Presumably they are referring to the events covered by the well known Trilateral Commision Report, which alleged that the USA and other parts of the world were suffering from a crisis of too much democracy: Women’s liberation, Black Liberation, Gay liberation, the workers getting uppity, the birth of popular envionmental and anti-pollution movevments, etc. These movements were a real problem for the rich-elites. They were panicking. All this democracy could strip away their power and wealth, leading to chaos for them. Who knows what could follow? This fear underlies a fundamental neoliberal doctrine going back to Hayek and Mises: the spread of democracy needs to be stopped as it impinges on The Market, and possibly stops corporations taking all the wealth for themselves. A proposed focus on promises of individual prosperity, breaking up community action, distrust of government and faith in freedom of The Market seemed a workable solution to this fear. Hence their advice to Reagan was aimed at shutting down the possible increase in liberty for the people, and reinforcing the power of corporate elites.

They even link this 1970s surge of non-elite liberty to the present day:

Contemporary elites have even repurposed the worst ingredients of 1970s “radical chic” to build the totalitarian cult known today as “The Great Awokening.”

Mandate: 1

They admit that the radical chic of the anti-elite democratic movements of the 1970s are comparable to ‘woke’ support for human rights for the suppressed people of the present day. This includes the terrible woke support for not shooting people because they are black, or not victimizing people because of their sexual identity, etc. The neoliberal position is clear: liberty must be thwarted unless it is just corporate liberty. They obviously think that having previously told Reagan how to benefit the financial elites is a selling point for the normal population, which perhaps it is, given how that period has been sanitised by the corporate media.

They also make it clear that one of their prime policy objectives is clearing the public service of anyone who disagrees with their project and appointing people who will do exactly as they are told by the Republican President. As when Trump removed Comey and his attorney general Jeff Sessions for not stopping the Mueller inquiry. So ends Democracy and discussion. If loyalty to the President is the sole denominator of success and employment, then no one will ever tell the executive when their plans are going desperately wrong. North Korea is not the ideal State.

To rephrase Reagan: “the most chilling words you will ever hear, are ‘I’m from a corporation and I’m here to bring you liberty'”

Scapegoating: Don’t blame the riche elites for anything

As neoliberalism not only failed to produce general prosperity but generated the opposite, neoliberals need a long line of scapegoats to explain the failure. Obviously none of these explanations will include the neoliberal project itself or the self-destructiveness of capitalism, because corporations are tools designed and used to avoid personal responsibility (limited liability), and the media is largely owned by corporations or billionaires. Perhaps weirdly most of these alleged scapegoats are ludicrously inadequate for the magnitude of events attributed to them:

The long march of cultural Marxism through our institutions has come to pass. The federal government is a behemoth, weaponized against American citizens and conservative values, with freedom and liberty [for corporations] under siege as never before.

Mandate: xvi

Everyone ‘knows’ both that the US is full of powerful Marxists, and that they are an unpopular and tiny portion of the population. The only way that Marxists can be an explanation for neoliberal failure, when there are no self-identified, active or important, political Marxists in the US, is to either call Democratic Party members Marxist, or talk about supposed ‘cultural marxists’ swarming through institutions but otherwise invisible or hidden. On top of that, the evil is represented by a certified list of powerless people such as trans people, drag queens, people who talk about racism and the problems it generates, “anti-family campaigners” (?) etc. who are destroying our children: {“children suffer the toxic normalization of transgenderism with drag queens and pornography invading their school libraries” Mandate: 1}. It is never the actually powerful or rich that cause problems.

A central strategy of neoliberalism to is to remove responsibility for suffering from those elites causing the suffering, while putting the responsibility onto minority scapegoats. This builds up two opposed categories, ‘straight and visible pro-capitalist champions of liberty and protectors of children’ vs ‘sexually corrupt, hidden, evil, anti-capitalist champions of tyrannical government and child abuse.’ You are either loyal to neoliberals, or something which is only barely human. You either accept the truth of your ‘information group’ or become corrupted by listening to, or discussing anything with, the wicked. This was a technique that was effective for the Nazis as well, but its pretty basic.

They say they will help this process of binarisation and:

start… with deleting the terms sexual orientation and gender identity (“SOGI”), diversity, equity, and inclusion gender, gender equality, gender equity, gender awareness, gender-sensitive, abortion, reproductive health, reproductive rights,

Mandate: 4-5

Apparently merely saying these words is a tyrannical threat to other people’s first amendment rights to free speech. No one said Neoliberals were coherent, but right-wing freedom of speech often involves removing other peoples right to speak, rewriting history, and making sure that poor weak corporations and evangelical foot-soldiers, are heard and protected (but only if they agree with the project).

The task at hand to reverse this [tiny and trivial] tide and restore our Republic to its original moorings is too great for any one conservative policy shop to spearhead. It requires the collective action of our movement. With the quickening approach of January 2025, we have two years and one chance to get it right. Project 2025 is more than 50 (and growing) of the nation’s leading conservative organizations joining forces to prepare and seize the day

Mandate: xiv

So there are lots of rich elite sponsored organisations involved in this pro-corporate revolutionary attack on minorities and non-powerful people. What a suprise. This all suggests that some defenders of a collapsing capitalism, as in the 1930s, are happy to use persecution and violence to keep it going.

As a kind of footnote, it is possible in neoliberalism to attack some forms of capitalism, just as Nazis were allowed to attack Jewish capitalism, this attackable capitalism is the ‘new’ information technology capitalism. “The worst of these companies prey on children, like drug dealers, to get them addicted to their mobile apps.” (Mandate: 5). They don’t say that this is just like the way food companies try to addict kids to sugar and artificial chemically filled foods, or arms manufacturers might try to get kids addicted to their weapons, or toy companies to their scraps of plastic. This pushing of addiction is normal capitalism, as they would know. They also allege that info-tech companies are “a tool of China’s government. In exchange for cheap labor and regulatory special treatment from Beijing, America’s largest technology firms funnel data about Americans to the CCP”. Again these bad companies behave just like ordinary companies who use Chinese labor, and attempt to gain favour from the Chinese government. Trump pays taxes in China for his Maga goods which are made there, Ivanka gets special trademark deals with the Chinese government, but this is completely ok. It can be ignored

The established elite nearly always despise the nouveau riche, who are the not-yet-establishment. They can even talk about “Big Tech,” but you can’t talk about “Big Oil” or “Big Ag”, even though Big Oil may ‘rule the world’.

War

It also seems clear that they want war with China. Again authoritarianism needs wars to boost the profits of arms manufacturers, and get rid of competition.

The next conservative President must, restore war-fighting as [the military’s] sole mission, and set defeating the threat of the Chinese Communist Party as its highest priority

Mandate: 8, but the message is hammered all through the book

Putin is not such a concern, but is a concern (cf 181-2)

Of course no mention of needing to use the army to help rebuild the USA as climate change wrecks it.

No one should be naive about China, but I suspect most people are not quite as keen for war with China as these elites – its a great money making oportunity for “Big Arms’. Encouraging external threats, and singling out weak internal threats for suppression, are part of the authoritarian schema.

Environmentalism

Environmentalism which inhibits corporate action is defined as Left wing fanaticism. Environmentalism should not actually be concerned with the environment.

Those who suffer most from environmentalism would have us enact are the aged, poor, and vulnerable. It is not a political cause, but a pseudo-religion meant to baptize liberals’ ruthless pursuit of absolute power in the holy water of environmental virtue. At its very heart, environmental extremism is decidedly anti-human. Stewardship and conservation are supplanted by population control and economic regression. Environmental ideologues would ban the fuels that run almost all of the world’s cars, planes, factories, farms, and electricity grids. Abandoning confidence in human resilience and creativity in responding to the challenges of the future would raise impediments to the most meaningful human activities. They would stand human affairs on their head, regarding human activity itself as fundamentally a threat to be sacrificed to the god of nature.

Mandate: 11

Oddly population control as a remedy for climate change is a right wing talking point, and no evidence is presented that climate change and ecological destruction and corporate poisoning do not affect “the aged, poor, and vulnerable”. They, in a characteristically unconservative manner, refuse to recognise that a working environment is necessary for humans, especially the poor and vulnerable, and that humans do not live away from the Earth’s environment (without huge amounts of costly technology). And that if corporations will not realise that the fuels which currently run the world’s corporations harm the world’s humans and enivronment, then corporations must be forced to recognise that their profits are destroying everything important to us.

It is they who abandon the confidence in human resilience and creativity, by assuming their polluting energy sources, and other forms of ecological destruction, cannot be abandoned or transcended by human ingenuity.

Corporate activity sacrifices everyone to profit and disregards the laws and workings of God’s creation. We do not need to boost its power to do more violating of our lives, by voting for the Right.

Given all this, their approach to climate change is obvious if sometimes vague. If action inconveniences profit, the problem is unimportant.

The President should also issue an executive order to reshape the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and related climate change research programs. The USGCRP produces strategic plans and research (for example, the National Climate Assessment) that reduce the scope of legally proper options in presidential decision-making and in agency rulemakings and adjudications. Also, since much environmental policymaking must run the gauntlet of judicial review, USGCRP actions can frustrate successful litigation defense in ways that the career bureaucracy should not be permitted to control. The process for producing assessments should include diverse viewpoints

Mandate: 59

the Biden Administration’s climate fanaticism will need a whole-of-government unwinding.

Mandate: 60

We might wonder what fanaticism for slowing climate change we are talking about when Biden is encouraging new fossil fuel licenses and mines, and continuing subsidies for fossil fuels.

In March 2023 the Chair of the Senate Budget Committee wrote:

As we’ll hear today, the United States subsidizes the fossil fuel industry with taxpayer dollars.  It’s not just the US: according to the International Energy Agency, fossil fuel handouts hit a global high of $1 trillion in 2022 – the same year Big Oil pulled in a record $4 trillion of income.  

In the United States, by some estimates taxpayers pay about $20 billion dollars every year to the fossil fuel industry.  What do we get for that?  Economists generally agree: not much.  To quote conservative economist Gib Metcalf: these subsidies offer “little if any benefit in the form of oil patch jobs, lower prices at the pump, or increased energy security for the country.”  The cash subsidy is both big and wrong. 

But the really big subsidy is the license to pollute for free.  The IMF calls this global free pass an “implicit” fossil fuel subsidy.  Economists call it an “unpriced externality.”

SEN. WHITEHOUSE ON FOSSIL FUEL SUBSIDIES: “WE ARE SUBSIDIZING THE DANGER

It seems that doing even less to curb ecological destruction, or subsidizing it even more, is the only thing compatitble with corporate liberty. This implies corporate freedom is not only more important than democracy, but more important than life itself.

We should indeed ignore climate change and the role of fossil fuels:

USAID should cease its war on fossil fuels in the developing world and support the responsible management of oil and gas reserves as the quickest way to end wrenching poverty and the need for open-ended foreign aid. The next conservative Administration should rescind all climate policies from its foreign aid programs (specifically USAID’s Climate Strategy 2022–20307 ); shut down the agency’s offices, programs, and directives designed to advance the Paris Climate Agreement; and narrowly limit funding to traditional climate mitigation efforts. The agency should cease collaborating with and funding progressive foundations, corporations, international institutions, and NGOs that advocate on behalf of climate fanaticism.

Mandate 257-8

Yes Fossil fuels and their companies must be supported. It can be presumed that responsible management of oil and gas reserves, means full exploitation and sales at the highest price with almost no local benefit, as that is what it usually means. In Australia we know this means attacks on local government, pollution, destruction of water supplies, and almost no financial benefit from the mines, or the sales, because of minimal mineral royalties, tax breaks, tax evasion through foreign tax havens and paybacks of high interest loans from branches of the same company overseas. More neoliberal globalism in action to benefit profit, not locals.

In fact, almost nothing need be done. Especially anything which challenges corporate liberty to destroy the world for profit.

Again their arguments are selective:

The Biden Administration’s extreme climate policies have worsened global food insecurity and hunger. Its anti–fossil fuel agenda has led to a sharp spike in global energy prices.

Mandate: 257

No mention of the Russian invasion of Ukraine which massively lowered the supply of both food and fossil fuels, putting prices up all over the world not only in the USA. No mention of the record profits of major oil companies cronying up together to increase prices even more than they should have increased. No mention of food company profit increases. The dogma seems to be that whatever an established corporation does must be good, and have no deleterious effects at all. It is extreme to even pretend to worry about climate change.

They make the usual Bjon Lomborg argument:

The aid industry claims that climate change causes poverty, which is false. Enduring conflict, government corruption, and bad economic policies are the main drivers of global poverty. USAID’s response to man-made food insecurity is to provide more billions of dollars in aid—a recipe that will keep scores of poor countries underdeveloped and dependent on foreign aid for years to come.

Mandate: 257

We can note that the only bad industry is one which attempts to help people. However, climate change does cause poverty, through crop failure, wild fires, drought, floods and homelessness. We might even think about how working outside in excessive heat can cause death, which may lead the rest of the family into even greater poverty. But we have to believe families are more at risk from a small number of transsexuals’ than they are from corporate destruction. Climate change kills while it brings profits, so its ok. We already know that they do not really mean sensible economic policies, they mean letting corporations do what they will, as the environment is doing fine in the hands of corporations….

Mischaracterizing the state of our environment generally and the actual harms reasonably attributable to climate change specifically is a favored tool that the Left uses to scare the American public into accepting their ineffective, liberty-crushing regulations, diminished private property rights, and exorbitant costs. In effect, the Biden EPA has once again presented a false choice to the American people: that they have to choose between a healthy environment and a strong, growing economy

Mandate: 419.

It seems to me that the neoliberal right is saying somthing like:

  1. you should ignore warnings about collapsing ecologies and wild destructive weather, because we don’t know how to solve theses problems while keeping our established companies hyper-profitable,
  2. It is important to recognise that property rights give property owners the right to destroy their property even if it harms others.
  3. We don’t want people to get involved in government, and planing to save the planet as who knows where it will end? and
  4. You cannot have both a strong economy and a healthy environment, so you must choose ‘The Market’ at all times, and that will always deliver because we say so, and you must trust us.

In reality, you also won’t get a ‘healthy economy’, if by healthy you mean one that benefits everyone and their ecologies, as one of the points of neoliberalism is to stop general benefit from happening. General benefit generates calls for democracy, like we had in the 1960s and 70s, and that is a problem for corporate control and elite profits.

Temporary conclusion

That is probably enough for the moment. The point is that a new Trump presidency, will attempt to make things even better for corporations at even bigger costs to the American People.

On this issue we can rewrite one of their passages to be a more accurate of themselves:

Ultimately, the Right does not believe that all men are created equal—they think they are special. The established corporate rich are special when compared to the middle class and the poor. Men are special in comparison to women. Straight people are special in comparison with gay or queer people. Republicans are special in comparison with Democrats. They certainly don’t think all people have an unalienable right to pursue the good life, because they cut wages at every opportunity, intensify corporate power, and shift the cost of the State onto the middle classes. They think only they themselves have rights, along with the moral responsibility to make decisions for everyone else. They don’t think any citizen, state, church, or charity should be allowed any freedom until they first bend the knee to corporate power.

Mandate: 16 rephrased

These think tanks are aiming at suppression of any dissent, or objection to, excessive corporate power and profit – and are relatively open about it, once you realise that, in their world view, liberty is something that only exists for established corporations and their supporters. It is something which is for sale and can be bought, or not bought if you don’t have the money. The rest of us can suffer the consequences of that liberty and watch the world burn, flood and fall apart.

As Ronald Reagan put it: “Freedom is a fragile thing and it’s never more than one generation away from extinction. It is not ours by way of inheritance; it must be fought for and defended constantly by each generation”

Mandate: 2

We need to defend our liberty against the corporate sector and its think-tanks.

Is Peak Oil here? 2

September 5, 2023

Peak oil is an important concept but it often seems misunderstood.

Peak oil being passed does not mean oil will be unavailable immediately, which I have read people as saying. These statements then seem to lead to people arguing that because we have oil, peak oil is not a problem.

Some of this argument appears to come from the theology of the magic of The Market. The Market as god, is always supposed to produce what we need, without us having to prepare for market failure, market self-destruction, or simply running out of supplies on a finite world.

Predictions in brief

A 1956 world oil production prediction, based on historical data and future production, proposed by the geologist M. King Hubbert, had oil production peaking at 12.5 billion barrels per year in about the year 2000. This figure has been exceeded recently.

According to wiki, in the 1970s-1980s Shell, Exxon, the UK department of Energy and the World Bank, predicted peak oil would hit in the early 2000s, and the previous article I wrote gives some evidence that production has started to decline.

Oil production peaking does not mean that after we reach ‘peak oil’, there will be no oil available at all, just that it will be harder to obtain, and production will eventually start declining. It could even be the case that after peak oil, oil production will increase for a while due to desperation, price increases, or the use of crap fields, and then decline more abruptly.

Plenty of people have said it will take more and more energy to extract new oil when the easiest oil sites have already been found and exploited. And this seems true. No one would use tar sands oil with all its impurities and sludge, if normal oil was easy to find. No one would would be fracking for oil if oil was easy to find, same with deep sea oil. The energy cost and ecological risk of extracting seems to be increasing.

Eventually it is highly probable that the energy cost of obtaining oil will get close to the energy released from the oil being extracted, even if price factors drive the market onwards. When that happens we will be on a collapsing road. However, if ecological damage helps decrease the costs of obtaining oil, we could suspect that ecological damage from oil production will increase. This will have other consequences.

As the system is full of unknowns, the actual date at which oil will cease to be available at all in practical terms is uncertain, but it certainly looks as though we are on the way there.

Degrees of climate angst

August 7, 2023

The Yale Climate review reported world wide research polling amongst facebook users, which indicates that there are six different types of climate audience or grouping.

The Alarmed are convinced climate change is happening, human-caused, and an urgent threat, and strongly support climate policies.

The Concerned think human-caused climate change is happening and is a serious threat, and support climate policies. However, they tend to believe that climate impacts are still distant in time and space, thus the issue remains a lower priority.

The Cautious have not yet made up their minds: Is climate change happening? Is it human-caused? Is it serious?

The Disengaged know little to nothing about climate change and rarely if ever hear about it.

The Doubtful do not think climate change is happening or believe it is just a natural cycle.

And the Dismissive are convinced climate change is not happening, human-caused, or a threat, and oppose most climate policies

slightly modified: Italics and line breaks added

I personally think, from my experiences, there are at least two other modes:

  • Anger: Climate change is happening, its no big deal, and people are trying to impose unwanted changes of life on us.
  • Doomer: Climate change is too advanced to be stopped, so we can’t do anything.

There is also the probable

  • My income is tied in with fossil fuels, so climate action is bad

But these are irrelevant to the current discussion

Yale remarks:

We find that the Alarmed are the largest group in about three-fourths (80 of the 110) of the countries and territories surveyed. In fact, half or more respondents in twenty-nine countries and territories are Alarmed: the five countries with the largest percentage of Alarmed are Chile (65%), Mexico (64%), Malawi (63%), Bolivia (62%), and Sri Lanka (61%). Czechia and Yemen have the smallest percentages of Alarmed (both 9%). In the United States, about one-third of respondents are Alarmed (34%)….

By contrast, relatively few respondents in any country or territory are Doubtful or Dismissive. Among major emitters, the United States has the largest proportion of Doubtful and Dismissive, more than one in five (22%).

The document does not gather together the data for the world. So lets gather together some figures for Alarmed and Concerned. Given the polling is of facebook users this is a restricted audience….

  • Mexico 93% of people are Alarmed or Concerned
  • Brazil 90%
  • Chile 83%
  • Spain 79%
  • Hungary 79%
  • Columbia 79%
  • Argentina 77%
  • South Africa 73%
  • Japan 72%
  • India 71%
  • Kenya 70%
  • Bangladesh 70%
  • Turkey 70%
  • Malaysia 68%
  • Singapore 68%
  • Jamaica 68%
  • Zambia 68%
  • UK 67%
  • Germany 66%
  • Canada 65%
  • Australia 63%
  • USA 59%
  • Nigeria 55%
  • Saudi Arabia 50%
  • Norway 41%
  • Yemen 26%

This indicates that there is a world wide interest in change.

So again we need to ask why there is so little movement towards change.

Climate Psychology

July 29, 2023

the great Sally Gillespie

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-28/calls-for-clear-leadership-as-un-warns-of-global-boiling-era/102663028

Ok this will not connect, even though the editing field says its connected, but try pasting the URL into your browser

Just some illos, diagrams, memes whatever////

July 29, 2023

Some people and ecosystems already face or are fast approaching “hard” limits to adaptation, where climate impacts from 1.1 degrees C of global warming are becoming so frequent and severe that no existing adaptation strategies can fully avoid losses and damages.

We are not on a path to achieve these levels of emissions reduction. Up until covid emissions were constantly increasing. Post covid they are increasing again.

We are also clearing forests so the CO2 is not drawn down.

An area the size of Switzerland was cleared from Earth’s most pristine rainforests in 2022, despite promises by world leaders to halt their destruction, new figures show… the equivalent of 11 football pitches of primary rainforest were destroyed every minute last year

Greenfield Destruction of world’s pristine rainforests soared in 2022 despite Cop26 pledge The Guardian 27 Jun 2023

Households with incomes in the top 10%, including a relatively large share in developed countries, emit upwards of 45% of the world’s GHGs, while those families earning in the bottom 50% account for 15% at most. 

The Weather

July 16, 2023

The weather seems a little unusual recently. It has for a while. On July 8th 2023 just before the weather got really extreme, António Guterres (Scretary General of the UN) tweeted

This week, the world broke the daily temperature record. This is yet another demonstration that climate change is out of control and one reason more for increased #ClimateAction ambition and justice.

https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/status/1677431472926474240

General

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration stated in its most recent monthly global climate report that June 2023 was the hottest month globally on record, on both land and sea.

In the first to second week of July 2023, Earth broke or equalled its record for the warmest day on four occasions. The hottest week ever recorded was between 3-10 July this year

Daily sea surface temperature records have been broken more than 100 days in a row, according to US data.

We are in uncharted territory and that is worrying news for the planet,” said Prof Christopher Hewitt, the WMO’s director of climate services. “We should not be at all surprised with the high global temperatures,” Prof Richard Betts, climate scientist at the Met Office and University of Exeter, told the BBC. “This is all a stark reminder of what we’ve known for a long time, and we will see ever-more extremes until we stop building up more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.”

The climate crisis is intensifying heatwaves – making them more frequent and longer-lasting. “We can already see this in our observations and we know this will continue as we continue to warm the planet,” Dr Andrew King, a senior lecturer in climate science at the University of Melbourne says.

North America

In the USA after days of high temperatures across much of the region, more than a third of Americans were under extreme heat alerts.

The surface ocean temperature around the Florida Keys reached 38.43C. Normal water temperatures for the area at this time of year are between 23C and 31C.

Residents in California were warned desert area highs could exceed 120F (48.8C). and bush fires soon broke out.

Phoenix, Arizona which has had a two-week stretch (now 31 days) of temperatures above 110F (43C) is expecting its hottest weekend of the year. “Phoenix has always been hot,” said Michelle Litwin, the city’s heat response program manager. “But this is something else” [cf 2]. Phoenix has since broken its record, previously set in 1974, with 21 days in a row of temperatures over 110F. The previous record was 18 days in a row. People are apparently suffering severe burns from collapsing onto pavements.

The city was the first in the country to fund a dedicated heat department in 2021, which has launched dozens of programs with ambitious goals, including planting more trees, opening cooling centers and ensuring people across the region have working air-conditioning units.

Despite the work, the numbers of heat-related fatalities have swelled dramatically in recent years, culminating in a record 425 lives lost last year.

‘Hell on earth’: Phoenix’s extreme heatwave tests the limits of survival

Richer areas are cooler, and

Greenery makes a big difference in how a person fares during extreme heat. Shade can make temperatures feel up to 30 degrees cooler, according to Lora Martens, the urban tree program manager for the city’s office of heat response and mitigation. She is leading the effort to spread the shade to more exposed areas of the city, but that isn’t as easy as it sounds.

ibid.

However, green cities are not normal, and across the US, more than a third of Americans were under extreme heat advisories, watches and warnings and:

The National Weather Service has warned residents to prepare for the hottest weather of the year as some areas could see temperatures as high as 120F (48.8C). Palm Springs is expected to reach 120F, Redding could rise to 113F (45C) and Fresno in California’s Central Valley is projected to peak at 109F (42.7C).

Firefighters battle California wildfires amid blistering heatwave. The Guardian 16 July

In California there are large bushfires, and there are tornadoes in Chicago and historic levels of flooding in Vermont and central Mississippi,

“Unlike Irene, which we kind of expected, this storm came out of nowhere. It seemed random. It just sort of appeared and never stopped raining,” 

‘Everything got wrecked’: Vermont city begins cleanup after devastating flood. The Guardian 13 July 2023

One week park service officials in Death Valley, warned hikers that rescue helicopters would not be able to fly to their aid during daytime due to the heat. Some commercial flights were grounded for the same reasons.

https://www.weather.gov/hazstat/ download 6 August 2023

Massive fires in Canada are supposedly the worst fires in Canada’s recorded history and:

already greater than the combined area burned in 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2022, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre…. As of Tuesday, firefighters were battling 494 blazes throughout the country, more than half of them classified as out-of-control

Canada’s wildfire carbon dioxide emissions hit record high in first six months of 2023 The Guardian 28 Jun 2023

[These Canadian] wildfires have forced more than 120,000 people from their homes and burned through more than 10m hectares (24.7m acres) – a 1,100% increase over the 10-year average. Smoke from the fires has drifted thousands of miles to choke cities across North America.

Kyler ZelenyFighting a losing battle’: waves of wildfires leave Canada’s volunteer firefighters drained. The Guardian 20 Jul 2023

Record high temperatures in Mexico put enormous pressure on the country’s power grid.

Last week’s temperatures in north-east Mexico and central Texas scored five in the Climate Shift Index, which means researchers calculate they were five or more times likelier because of climate change….

Citizens dealing with power outages are scrambling to adjust to the disruption and danger. Luis Alejandro Calderón, an American citizen who lives in Nuevo Laredo, Tamaulipas, and his wife had to sleep on their balcony last Sunday because they didn’t have electricity, and the heat inside was unbearable. The power shortage lasted more than 40 hours, so they stayed in a hotel in another area the next night, and a lot of their food went bad.

“We have never had to deal with anything like this,” he said. “When there is a power cut, electricity is usually back in 15 minutes.”

Many people in Mexico without power as deadly heat leads to strain on grid The Guardian 30 Jun 2023 

Uruguay is apparently running out of water,

Canelón Grande, a vital reservoir that normally provides water to more than a million people in the country’s capital Montevideo has been reduced to a muddy field that locals are now able to cross on foot.

Another, the Paso Severino, which normally serves 60% of the country’s population with fresh water, has seen the largest decrease in water levels on record. Water levels could be depleted completely in early July, according to local media reports.

Guy Putting salt in tap water and drilling wells in parks: one country’s desperate quest to avoid running dry. CNN 26 Jun 2023

The water company is adding salt water to regular water to eke out supplies

Europe

Red weather alerts have been issued across Europe. Wildfires are raging in Croatia on the Adriatic coast, in Greece near Athens a total of 79 forest fires across the country and thousands of people evacuated on the island of Rhodes. with the fires expected to continue to blaze out of control). Other fires in Switzerland, in Navarra in Spain and near Hatay in Turkey

Research has found there were 61,672 heat-related deaths last summer, the hottest ever recorded in Europe. The mortality rate was highest in Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal.

‘I’ve never seen heat this bad. It’s not normal’: Italy struggles as temperature tops 40C The Guardian 15 July.

In Italy, sixteen cities have red alerts (23 a few days later) as southern Europe experiencs fierce heat and faced the possibility of record-breaking temperatures. Temperatures reached 38C and predictions say they will reach 40C or higher in central and southern regions, with the islands of Sicily and Sardinia possibly hitting a peak of 48C.

Hospitals across Italy have seen a sharp rise in the number of people seeking emergency care for heat-related illnesses as a heatwave continues to grip the country, with temperatures in Rome setting a new record.

Some hospitals reported a 20-25% increase in the numbers arriving at emergency units suffering from dehydration or other illnesses caused by overexposure to the heat.

Temperatures in Rome hit 41.8C on Tuesday, breaking the previous record of 40.7C set in June 2022. Sicily reached about 41C and there were highs of 45C in Sardinia.

Angela Giuffrida Italian hospitals report sharp rise in emergency cases as Rome hits 41.8C. The Guardian 19 Jul 2023

See also [5]

In Athens the Acropolis was shut down due to the heat, and threats to tourist health and survival

In what would be the hottest day of the year – with the mercury hitting 45C (113F) in Syntagma Square and likely reaching 48C (118F) on the rocky outcrop on which the Acropolis stands – “difficult” soon resembled a war footing at the base of Greece’s most visited monument.

Acropolis closes to protect tourists as Greece faces unprecedented heatwave. The Guardian 16 July 2023

Portugal is suffering a drought affecting 90% of the country

Middle East

In Saudi Arabia during the haj, temperatures reached 48C (118F)

Sub-continent

In India. Delhi was flooded after the River Yamunawater levels reached their highest in 45 years, following unusually heavy rainfall. [cf 3]

In the northern state of Himachal Pradesh, where landslides blocked about 700 roads, flash floods destroyed a bridge and filled streets with debris

Pakistan is flooding again. Officials in Lahore, said they received record-breaking rainfall on Wednesday, leaving almost 35% of residents without electricity and water.

China

In China heavy flooding has displaced thousands of people and damaged infrastructure across China. Authorities in the northern Shaanxi province reported the worst flooding in 50 years [4].  China had its highest-ever temperature of 52.2C in the remote Xinjiang township of Sanbao [5].

Australia/Antarctica

The Oceans around Australia were 0.5C above average in June. In July the Great Barrier Reef suffered a marine heatwave:

Dr Alex Sen Gupta, an associate professor at the UNSW Climate Change Research Centre and marine heatwave expert, said: “If you look globally, we’re seeing more marine heatwaves now than we have ever seen before.

“It’s exceptional at the moment. It’s definitely warm in the [water] north-east [of Australia]. There’s bound to be impacts to animals and plants because of these warmer temperatures.”

Readfearn Marine heatwave off north-east Australia sets off alarm over health of Great Barrier Reef. The Guardian 22 Jul 2023

Australia’s minimum temperatures near the east coast reached as much as 10C above average.

Parts of Antarctica are about 20C above average for July and during the July Winter the ice levels did not recover.

vast regions of the Antarctic coastline were ice free for the first time in the observational record.”So it’s five standard deviations beyond the mean. Which means that if nothing had changed, we’d expect to see a winter like this about once every 7.5 million years”

Alvaro Antarctic sea ice levels dive in ‘five-sigma event’, as experts flag worsening consequences for planet ABC 24/07/2023

“There’s a sense that something weird is going on. It’s [the ice is dropping way below anything we have seen in our record,” says Dr Walt Meier, a senior scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado.

Graham Readfearn ‘Something weird is going on’: search for answers as Antarctic sea ice stays at historic lows. The Guardian 29 July 2023

Responses

In the US the response has been to harrass news people who point out the connection between weather and climate change, plus Republicans are trying to cut back spending on climate change. In Texas the Governor approved a law to eliminate rules which gave water breaks to construction workers. And Texas electricity supplies were collapsing due to demand, probably for air conditioning.

Oil Companies have decided its not as important to roll back emissions than it is to make profits.

BP has scaled back its goal of lowering its emissions by 35% by 2030, saying it will aim for a 20 to 30% cut instead.

ExxonMobil has  withdrawn funding for its efforts to use algae to create low-carbon fuel. Its CEO, Darren Woods, told an industry conference last month that the company plans to double the oil production from its US shale holdings in five years.

 Shell announced that it would not increase its investments in renewable energy this year, and has said that it has cut oil production by by selling off some operations to another oil company which might reduce its emissions, but does not reduce emissions in general. Wael Sawan, Shell’s CEO, said curbing oil and gas production would be “dangerous and irresponsible”.

TotalEnergies CEO, Patrick Pouyanne, told CNBC that his company will continue to pour the majority of its investments into fossil fuels. “Today, our society requires oil and gas,” he said. “There is no way to think that overnight we can just eliminate all that.”

In Europe

The German public is fretting over the phaseout of gas boilers, while the car industry has successfully squeezed in a loophole for synthetic fuels to lengthen the lifespan of conventional combustion engines, which are meant to be phased out across the EU by 2035. The French president, Emmanuel Macron, and the Belgian prime minister, Alexander De Croo, have both publicly called for a “pause” in the EU’s green legislative agenda, while Poland is fighting for exemptions to sustain its coal subsidies. In the European parliament, conservatives and centre-right MEPs are putting spokes in the wheels of the nature conservation law, the biodiversity part of the EU’s green deal.

Tocci After two years of real progress on climate, a European ‘greenlash’ is brewing The Guardian 12 July 2023

In the UK, the Conservatives appear to be arguing that:

green policies are very unpopular when there’s a direct cost to people – as indeed all the polling says. This time that hit Labour. But soon it could be us unless we rethink heat pumps and the 2030 electric car deadline.

David Frost Twitter 21 July 2023

high-cost green policies are not popular” and “if people think that you are treating the cause of the environment as a religious crusade, in which you’re dividing the world into goodies and baddies, then you alienate the support that you need for thoughtful environmentalism.” and accusing the Labour party of being “the political wing of Just Stop Oil

A few days later the UK announced more than a one hundred new drilling licenses for the North Sea “maxing out our oil and gas reserves”. “The prime minister is firmly of the belief that we should use the resources that we have here at home, first and foremost.” PM Sunak said it was “entirely consistent with our plan to get to net zero.”

Sunak also announced fresh support for two carbon capture and storage (CCS) clusters in Scotland and northern England.

The plans were welcomed by energy companies, including Shell and Harbour Energy, who are among the partners in the Acorn CCS project which will gain so-called Track 2 status and can now enter into commercial negotiations with the government.

Britain aims to use CCS technology, which involves capturing planet-warming carbon from industrial smokestacks before it hits the atmosphere and storing it underground, to hold 20 million to 30 million tonnes of CO2 by 2030.

There is no large-scale or commercial CCS project operating in Britain currently, and the government has faced criticism for slow progress on its deployment.

Sharon Kimathi Sustainable Switch Reuters ND but before 7/08/2023

The G20 who produce more than three-quarters of global emission met in India in late july 2023, and where unable to agree on targets of $100bn (£78bn)a year for climate action in developing economies from 2020-25, curbing “unabated” use of fossil fuels and the intention of tripling of renewable energy capacities by 2030.  Russia, Saudi Arabia, China, Indonesia, and South Africa all opposed the plan to triple renewables capacity.

Warnings

Things progress as normal:

companies are still developing, and governments are still approving, new mines and fields. In fact, 40% of the 425 ‘carbon bombs’ have not yet started production. While coal may be considered to be on the way out, there are more coal mines than oil and gas projects on the list of all carbon bombs (230 and 195 respectively) and on the list of bombs still being developed (93 and 76)….

The emissions potential of the 425 carbon bombs is roughly double the remaining carbon budget for staying under 1.5oC. 

Sainsbury Carbon bombs will explode all hopes of 1.5 Jul 23, 2023

An El Nino is settling in. This is likely to boost temperature rises

James Hansen states, this:

may set new global temperature records continually during the next 12 months. It seems that we are headed into a new frontier of global climate.

The Climate Dice are Loaded. Now, a New Frontier?

We have to begin to move against Fossil Fuel Companies, and the system they and their supporters promote, that is literally destroying our ability to flourish.

Is ‘Peak Oil’ here?

July 13, 2023

This is an important question. Basically peak oil arrives, not because oil has run out, but because the amounts of energy expended to obtain the oil, transport and refine the oil, is close to, or over, the amount of energy released by the oil.

When this happens, the “Energy Return on Energy Input” is small.

It would seem obvious that if you spend more energy to get the material which gives energy, than you get from the material itself, this is going to weaken your social and business processes.

Goehring & Rozencwajg, who are an investment firm, point out that:

  • Never before has oil supply growth been so geographically concentrated. Six counties in West Texas are now 100% responsible for all global production growth.
  • Conventional non-OPEC oil production peaked in 2007 at 46.2 mm b/d and now stands at 44.2 mm b/d – 4% below its peak.
  • Including OPEC, conventional global output peaked in 2016 at 84.5 mm b/d and now stands at 81.3 m b/d – 5% below its peak.

The argue that any growth in oil production has arisen from non-convetional oil. This is oil which requires much more energy to extract, and which can often result in ecological destruction. This includes the oil of fracking, shale oils, tar sands, or requires crop convesion.

  • [Between 2006 and 2015] US shales grew by 6.8 mm b/d (65% of all growth), bio-fuels grew by 1.9 mm b/d (19% of the growth), and Canadian oil sands increased 1.4 mm b/d (14% of the growth). Please note that out of this 10 mm b/d growth figure, the Permian represents only 1.4 mm b/d or 14%.

Between 2016 and 23

  • US shales accounted for 85% of the increase. However, whereas all the major shale basins grew from 2006 to 2015, only the Permian grew afterward. 

However, the decline in availability has not lowered the demand. More importantly, not lowering the demand shows that the world’s societies and businesses are not dealing with climate change prevention, adaptation or mitigation. More oil burning increases emissions, which increase climate change, which increases the danger of social collapse. Paradoxically, decline in energy availability, also means an increase in the possibility of social collapse.

Because of the demand:

  • Global demand in 1Q23 surpassed 102 mm barrels per day — three million barrels above the 1Q19 (pre-COVID) level and almost 2 mm b/d above the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 1Q23 estimate. 
  • From here on out, just six counties in West Texas must meet all global demand growth [from the Permian shale].
  • [Their models suggest] The Permian is likely less than a year from peaking and starting its decline

The usual pattern for shale oil, is that once the decline starts, it declines very quickly.

Once oil decline, and resulting price increases, really start to bite, then air transport is likely over for the masses without major technological break throughs, which currently seem unlikely.

Because they are an investment company and not that bothered with the causes of climate change, they are ‘bullish’ about natural gas…. and

  • North American natural gas remains our highest conviction investment theme, and we have used the recent weakness to add to our holdings.

So the collapse continues….

************************

Addenda:

We know that when oil wells are abandoned they are rarely made safe and leak proof because that costs money. So there will be continuing pollution.

When a well is left unplugged, it can leak oil and other toxic chemicals, endanger water wells and other sources, contribute to air pollution and emit methane – a powerful greenhouse gas

Hundreds of thousands of wells across the country were not plugged by their operators and remain open to groundwater and nature, some for a century or more. These “orphan” wells have no solvent owner of record, so the cleanup liability falls on the states, federal agencies or Tribe. Unfortunately, only pennies on the dollar have been available to properly clean up these wells.

Texas could receive over $341M to plug the 6,489 currently documented orphan wells in the state.

EDF Mapping Orphan Wells in Texas

*******************

I was asked why with peak oil coming do renewables need subsidy?

Renewables appear to get less subsidy from taxpayers than fossil fuels, throughout the world and in Australia.

  • I’ve argued before that its often hard to agree on what counts as a subsidy, and some people suggest tax concessions are not subsidies, and figures of subsidies differ. But see:
  • New research shows fossil fuel subsidies over the forward estimates have increased to a record breaking $57.1b, up from the $55.3b forecast in 2022.”
  • This report provides our first estimates for 2022, which show that global fossil fuel consumption subsidies doubled from the previous year to an all-time high of USD 1 trillion.”
  • Trillions of dollars of subsidies for fossil fuels, farming and fishing are causing ‘environmental havoc’, according to the World Bank, severely harming people and the planet…. At $577bn, the explicit subsidies for coal, oil and gas in 2021 were twice as large as those for renewable energy, and almost six times higher than the climate finance promised by rich countries to developing nations.”

I suspect these weird levels of subsidy is partly about power and habit. We still expect oil to keep flowing freely, as it has done, to be the basis of our society as it has been, and it probably will be for another 10 to 20 years getting more expensive and more damaging all the time. Gas will replace some of that oil, which will keep the polluting system going longer as the investment company above celebrates.

But, even in the best cirumstances we probably need to replace the oil consumption within that 20 years or we may collapse. The Market will not do that replacement without help, because Markets are short sighted and inefficient for some things, this being one of them. The power of oil companies also warps the market and makes transition harder. They have been spewing anti-climate change crap for about 30 years and slowing the transition along with Murdoch.

So Renewables might need some subsidy to get going and build up enough energy to compensate for the energy loss that is likely to be coming.

Fossil fuels do not need subsidising, they are an established and wealthy industry which needs to go, and in the case of oil, is probably going anyway, but not without a struggle to continue its parth of destruction for as long as possible..

Robert Reich is wrong about Trump

June 13, 2023

In his article in todays Guardian, There will be no Civil War over Trump Mr Reich makes the classic intellectual error that people do things for clear reasons, and with good understandings. And thus they will not generate war over Trump. This proposition is simply not true. People do things for non-rational reasons; feelings of disquiet, distrust, disgust, misery, not having a vision of a beneficial future, ‘knowing’ stuff at an emotional level which they cannot express and so on.

Trump appeals to this knowing, and his inarticulateness and personal grievance, make him appear to be one of those people who, like us all, share grievances and cannot express them. People can relate to Trump, and he allows them to displace their grievance onto the State and the Democrat/Liberal ‘humanist’ elites, and distract them from the real cause of their misery. And as the State is part of the problem, it no longer appears to stand for the people, it is not a completely false target.

Most people in the English speaking world have experienced over 40 years of neoliberal policies (promoted by media, politicians and corporately sponsored think-tanks), in which corporate power has been protected from democracy, wages have stagnated or declined, working conditions have declined, social welfare and social security have become punitive and inadequate, bosses have gained arbitrary power, wealth has been siphoned off to the already hyper-rich, wealth inequality has increased along with political inequality. People’s futures have been taken over by crisis and the realisation that their children and grandchildren and not going to have it good. Community co-operation appears to be breaking down. There are apparent threats everywhere, increased violence, political corruption, corporate corruption, climate change, ecological destruction, pollution, irresponsive government, friction between social groups. Disorder seems to be increasing, and there is little attempt to put in a new order which benefits most people.

The problem people face is neoliberalism, corporate dominance and wealth syphoning. The State is part of this problem, because it has enabled all this to happen through its overt support of neoliberalism, and coporate power.This is a story which ‘the left’ does not seem to want to tell, because it (just like ‘the right’) depends on corporate donations, and fears organisations of corporate bodies, like the ‘minerals council of Australia’ or whatever, which have the huge monetary resources to make that attack count. The Media largely does not want to tell the story, because it is owned by corporations and billionaires, and depends on corporations buying advertising space. The right does not want to talk about it, because it is their fundamental policy.

Hence we have a stressed out working and middle class, who are risking descent into poverty all the time. Nobody is giving them a real explanation of their problens, or a set of policies which deal with the problems or can get traction without the promoters risking political death from corporate backlash. Trump voters know something is wrong. They know the system is not working. Trump, for all his faults, acknowledges this loss. ‘Make America Great Again’, expresses a feeling that it is possible to restore previous plenty, and this is welcomed by people. Sure Trump has few policies, and those policies almost certainly do not benefit the people who vote for him, but that is not the point. He is showing awareness and concern for the problem. He, and the Republican establishment, are generating scapegoats for the real issues, to explain why things are not better: as if drag queens, tran-sexuals and people worried about racial discrimination are responsible for economic decline and loss of futures. These people are made to symbolise all that is wrong, without threatening the market-elites, so supporting Trump seems secure to those market elites. Trump seems funded by his supporters, to an extent which seems unusual in modern politics and shows his appeal, and he is funded by the rich-elites.

In a way Trump is perfectly correct, people might need to join in a “final battle” for America -“These people don’t stop and they’re bad and we have to get rid of them. These criminals cannot be rewarded. They must be defeated.” The problem is that the people Trump wants to fight are often not America’s problem, they are just scapegoats, or people who point out that Trump is the criminal. It is as Reich says…. “a final battle over … himself,” but Trump is no longer just a corrupt politician, he has become a symbol for fears and aspirations which are real, no matter how fake he is.

As Reich reports, Trump has mainstream Republicans supporing violence to defend him. For some reason Reich decides this unimportant, rather than an indication of how Republicans are bound up with Trump and protecting Trump, and violence against Trump’s ‘enemies’.

There are many more posts on Twitter which incline more to violence than these, because people have been convinced that Trump is innocent, that the Department of Justice and the FBI are weaponsed against all ‘conservatives’, that the whole thing is an attempt to distract from Biden’s corruption, that Trump is the only honest politician and that he will smash the corruption (something also being said by Trump), that revenge is necessary on those who are really corrupt, and so on. It is endless. There seems to be a real fury out there – and it is absurd to pretend people are not being stoked for war. That may not mean war is inevitable, but the possibility is there, and little can stop it – certainly Trump being convicted is not going to stop it, whatever the evidence against him.

According to a CBS poll 76% of Republican voters think the charges are politically motivated, 61% think the charges won’t change their views about Trump, 14% changed their views for the better. 80% think that even if Trump is convicted he should be able to be President. If Trump could not run, then 74% of Republican voters want someone like Trump. 45% thought it important to punish the Democrats.

Oddly the more Trump is attacked, and shown to be criminal, the more he can be seen to be one of the masses, victimised by the powers that be. He can’t be guilty any more than ‘we’ are guilty for what is happening to us, and if he is guilty what hope is left? The rationale that the current charges he faces seem justified is completely irrelevant to Trump’s supporters. These charges are another fake, another step in the battle to keep them down.

The more that the left attacks Trump’s followers as stupid ill-educated morons (which is really common), then the more they fall into the Republican Trap, because they make it seem clear that ‘Democrat elites’ have nothing but contempt for working and middle class people, and therefore, as Republicans allege, are generating the problem. Democrats are not acknowledging the real problems people face, or their feelings as valid.

If this continues, there is no reason not to expect violence and highly disruptive violence. It may not be organised. It may be sporadic, but it will happen.

Modern weaponry means that a few well organised people can do significant amounts of damage, and protect themselves through generating fear and images of heroism.

As long as the violence is against Democrats or scapegoated outsiders, then Republicans will support it, or not object….. The violence can be repressed, which will generate more violence as more people get caught in the hunt to suppress, or the violence will be met by a violent oppositional response. What level of continued violence counts as civil war is irrelevant, what matters is using violence to promote and protect Trump and allow him to create a state of terror.

If Democrats don’t put forward a coherent world view as to what is wrong, acknowledge that wrong, acknowledge the real grievances of Trump voters, and put forward plausible solutions, then Trump will win. People seem not to appreciate that his vote increased in the last election, with people’s experience of him still fresh. It is simply optimism to think his base is moving away, that Biden will win without effort, and that there is no possibility of continuing political violence.

Non-doctrines of modern Fascism ????

June 7, 2023

Is there a philosophy behind Trumpism? I’m not sure. Sometimes I have found that pro-Trump people are even proud they can’t give reasons, other than that they are somehow fighting evil.

This makes the Trump movement even more like Fascism. One of the things I understand about fascism is that it rarely announces a coherent policy or philosophy. Its an appeal to a sense of collapse, and a sense of victimhood, so there are no reasons for supporting Trump. His supporters know their support is good.

A Fascist movement:

  1. makes people feel good, by talking about real Germans or real Americans, so that you feel special as you are part of a special nation and a special group. Maybe a master race. You are one of the chosen for victory,, because you recognise the greatness of the Leader and follow him as your duty to the country.
  2. tells you that the country and you and your children are being victimised by some relatively powerless (but in fascist mythology incredibly powerful if cowardly), minority: jews, marxists, black people, feminists, intellectuals, gay people, trans people etc.
  3. says, the only way of restoring the country’s past glories is to hold these foul people down, or get rid of them – and you can do it under the guidance of the Fuehrer or il Duce, or whatever, and all will be well as a result. You are saving your family and children as well as the country.
  4. The Leader, is an almost supernatural genius, under the guidance of GOD. He knows things. He does things. He is the best at everything.
  5. It does not matter if I, or foul and sneering intellectuals, cannot understand the leader, he works in mysterious ways!! He is guided. He is right.
  6. Anyone challenging the Leader must be one of the evil minorities or else he would not be challenging him. Opponents are evil by definition, how could they not be as they will not see the truth, and so they must be fought against and disposed of.
  7. There is a vast conspiracy against the Leader and against real America, and you can see this because the Leader is unfairly and illegally charged with criminal activities, and our enemies are not.
  8. We must fight aginst this conspiracy and put it out forever. We must control the law, so it does not happen again.
  9. Democrats being evil, are marxists, and probably agents of a foreign power.
  10. The Leader’s loyal followers are True Heroes, because they realise the truth and fight against the massive evil conspiracy run by pedophile Drag Queens. Onwards!!!!
  11. They look forward to gloating over their supposed opponents misery