Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Technological innovation vs. regulation in climate policy

May 31, 2023

That technological innovation is preferable to government regulation seems a common idea.

However there are a number of problems with this idea:

Technology is not magic, it will not always eventuate because we need it or because it would be nice if it arose. It may not arrive at the right time, at the right price, be easy to use, be usable at the scale required, or not have dire climate side effects.

‘The Market’ is not magic either, whatever you are told by people who are powerful in The Market. There is no reason to assume that innovative tech will be taken up, or that the best tech will be taken up. What counts, and pretty nearly always what counts, is how the company makes extra profit from it.

Because people think of tech as the magic solution, unworkable tech can be used as an excuse to keep on emitting pollution, and destroying ecologies. Indeed the tech does not even have to be installed to have this affect, as with Carbon Capture and Storage.

If PR and empty hype about technology increase profit more effectively than the technology iteself, then PR and hype will be used more than the technology is. There is no reason to think that the technology will be used.

Without regulation, there is no reason for innovative tech, to stop people from doing damage, especially if the corporation is gaining more profit from continuing as it has done in the way it knows how to.

People in corporations like other people, prefer the world to be smooth and stable, and introducing disruptive technology, may disrupt profits without foreseable good consequences. Hence they will avoid it. Computers took off, because they were an obvious way of standardising behaviour, regulating workers and allowed some tasks to be done much quicker than previously. They, in theory, got more work out of workers, which is always a corporate drive. Climate tech on the whole, does not do any of that.

Climate tech, without regulation may do little. For example renewables can be used to increase the energy supply cheaply, without decreasing the amount of fossil fuels that are used. This seems to be standard in many places, and it is standard in fossil fuel company spending – in which spending on exploration and new fossil fuels is at least 15 to 20 times higher than their spending on renewable development, as shown in this graph, The grey area represents expenditure on exploration for fossil fuels.

There is nothing to guarrantee that a technology will only have the effects we want, and will not be commandeered by standard destructive practice.

All markets depend on regulation, and regulation that can be enforced by the State or through the courts. All markets have power imbalances, which affect the market and its regulation. Succesful and rich companies will team up and try and abuse their position of success to make regulations that favour them. This is normal, and makes useful, generally beneficial, regulation difficult.

Without regulation adding to the pressures, most companies will not actually (as opposed to in PR) change their pollution, dispersion or their destructive extraction and climate change will continue to get worse, irrespective of the tech we have, or the tech we might imagine is coming soon.

Technology is useful, but we should work with the tech we have now, rather than imaginary innovative tech that may happen sometime in the future, or may never come.

We should regulate to impose emissions and destruction reduction. Consequences for breaking regulations should be enforced and should affect profit. Hopefully this would give corporations more incentive to work on the problems.

We should also sponsor technological private and governmental research to get better tech rather than leave it to the corporate sector and the market. After all many tech innovations have come from public money, not private money, and are more easily made available if their are no restrictive patents or copyright issues to face.

The World of Illusion

April 25, 2023

People can choose to live in a ‘world of illusion’ because they don’t always like to face up to challenges, particularly if they have failed to deal with challenges in the past, or they don’t want to recognise that past choices (and support) have led to them to where they are now. Sometimes realities seem too painful to face up to, and sometimes those you identify with and would like to resemble, are those causing the problems you face.

There are also mystical traditions which say that facing up to the reality of eternal bliss now, conflicts with our current ways of life and our views of our self as limited and deserving of punishment.

The point is that recognizing reality can be painful, and disorienting and threatening to our established identity

If there is a major internal, or external struggle/paradox happening then it can be less painful to decide that reality is not threatening to your identity and way of life and, that you and yours, are not creating problems for yourself and everyone.

It is much easier to sell people the idea that they don’t have to do anything, and all will be ok, than to sell them the idea that they (and others) have made bad choices in the past, and that they are likely to suffer as a result, especially if the suffering has only gradually increased.

People also often find it easier to line up to fight irrelevancies, than to struggle against the real problems.

For example:

  • It is easier to fight powerless drag queens, who have very little connection to child rape, than it is to fight people in the religions you believe in, who actually do rape children and have the power to expel you or make you an outcast.
  • It is easier to side with fossil fuel companies and denounce the ‘liberal elite’ and the ‘scientific conspiracy’ than it is to admit that your use of fossil fuels, and products using fossil fuels, is causing a problem which may lead to you losing your home, and that you need to change your whole way of life to tackle climate change. Especially given the change comes without a guide, and great uncertainty as to how you would live.
  • It is easier to say renewables will solve everything than it is to deal with the problems of renewables, or the problems of the system they are embedded in.

All of us do this all the time, unless we start to realize it. Its difficult to face up to the likelihood we have been choosing to live in a world of illusion.

Question about Entropy

April 23, 2023

I’m currently writing about energy, and I keep coming up against the concept of negentropy or negative entropy, and I just don’t get it. So it would be great if someone could explain it or point to a good URL. So far the urls or texts I have seen do not explain my issues away.

Background

You will all probably know the background ‘laws’ of thermodynamics of which two are particularly important.

0) Left to itself heat flows from a higher concentration to lower concentration. If two thermodynamic systems are each in thermal equilibrium with a third, then they are in thermal equilibrium with each other.

1) Energy can neither be created nor destroyed. The total energy of the universe remains constant.

2) Any use of energy will result in some energy being dispersed and becoming unavailable for use. This is entropy. The entropy of an isolated system [that is a system with no external source of energy] will tend to increase over time and, eventually, the system will cease to function.

3) At zero degrees Kelvin, no waste heat (entropy) is producible. [that is a paraphrase, which I hope is correct.]

Entropy is a process, not a thing. It is generally said to be irreversible. As a result, entropy marks time.

The Question

The question is what is the use and validity of the idea of ‘negentropy’. People seem to talk about the ‘consumption of negentropy’, which does not make sense to me at all. You cannot consume entropy, so how can you consume its ‘negation’? Are you violating the first law, which says energy cannot be created?

I’m assuming that negentropy arises because people want to make entropy equal to disorder, hence there is a problem of apparent increasing order as with life Life appears to build more and more complex order and repairs itself. (I think Schrodinger invents the term ‘negative entropy’ to ‘solve’ the mystery of life).

“[an organism] can only keep aloof from it [entropy], i.e. alive, by continually drawing from its environment negative entropy – which is something very positive as we shall immediately see. What an organism feeds upon is negative entropy”

What is Life p,71).

He goes on to ‘explain’:

If D is a measure of disorder, its reciprocal, 1/D, can be regarded as a direct measure of order. Since the logarithm of
IID is just minus the logarithm of D, we can write Boltzmann’s equation thus:

  • (entropy) == k log ( riD) .

….. entropy, taken with the negative sign, is itself a measure of order.

ibid: 73

I don’t like to think that I’m saying Schrodinger is talking bullshit as its hardly easy to justify, and in his defense there seem a large number of different interpretations of what he said.

What seems to be the case

However, there is nothing in the laws of thermodynamics, which says that with an external energy source, ‘processes’ cannot build what appears to be order, or even temporarily make a place exceedingly orderly. All that seems to be required to be recognised is that the building of order, maintenance, repair or regeneration etc., takes energy and disperses energy. Consequently, all of that energy is no longer accessible to the system. That is it. Energy is used and dispersed to make order. No need for negentropy, or consumption of negentropy, at all.

After a while, it takes more energy to keep the organism or information going, and it eventually breaks down (unless its a bacteria perhaps, but its not the same being after it has split many times). Again, this is connected to the Second Law in that energy is dispersed in attempting to make the order, and if something gets way too complicated it can take more and more energy to maintain, and run out of access to enough energy to maintain, and therefore starts breaking down.

Over time, the organism (or an information string if you want to tie entropy to information) tends to fail to replicate properly – there is not enough energy available to each complex organism to ensure that every replication is accurate all the time. Likewise it takes less energy to make up bullshit than it does to make up accuracy. This failure to replicate accurately can lead to evolution if failures prove ‘useful’ to further replication.

Maxwell’s demon sometimes seems to get tied in with negentropy. You all know this involves an imaginary creature opening a door to let gas particles accumulate in one side of a box. The imaginary demon’s actions (if it were to perform them) take energy. There is no apparent mystery. The box gets organised because the ordering takes and disperses energy.

So what does the idea of negentropy add to anything?

A Social science example

Let me quote:

Our main thesis is that the Anthropocene can be described as an Entropocene, insofar as the contemporary period is above all characterized by a process of the massive increase of entropy in all its forms (physical, biological, informational).

Internation. Letter to Antonio Guterres

In 1945… Lotka showed that the production of knowledge is the condition of the struggle against entropy for this technical form of life that is human life.

Internation: General Introduction

The general implication is that we must organise to defeat entropy and that life is negantropic.

However, entropy is a measure of dispersal of energy. The more energy is dispersed or wasted, the more likely that we won’t have enough energy to fix things up as they fall apart or get stressed. Therefore we need to make energy usage as efficient as possible, with as little loss as possible. Something no one aims at when energy is plentiful.

Making energy usage efficient does not stop energy being dispersed and entropy increasing. It is not negative entropy, it is not demaking entropy or consuming entropy, it just tries to make energy dispersal as minimal as possible.

footnote

Schrodinger tries to clear up his problem, saying

The remarks on negative entropy have met with doubt and opposition from physicist colleagues. Let me say first, that if I had been catering for them alone I should have let the discussion turn on free energy instead.

What is life p 74

“Free energy” as I understand the term is the available energy, which can be extracted and directed by the application of energy. For example, it takes energy to find food, eat it and digest it. The ‘free energy’ of food, has to provide more energy that it takes to find it, eat it and digest it, for it to be useful. Similarly sunlight is free, but we have to use energy to take it and convert it to electricity or warm water or whatever..

He also says

And that we give off heat is not accidental, but essential. For this is precisely the manner in which we dispose of the surplus entropy we continually produce in our physical life process.

Digestion and the uses of food energy to power and repair the body, disperses energy. There are other things going on as well such as maintenance of the body between a small range of temperatures.

This seems largely because he wants a direct equality between disorder and entropy, rather than an indirect and complex connection

umair haque on Happiness

April 12, 2023

Summary of an important article here. Read it…

Haque argues that happiness, for humans, involves social activity, possibly pointless social activity. It’s a side effect of getting to really interact with people (of all types) in your own neighborhood and building connections unintentionally.

This is important because our society (neoliberal capitalism) does not encourage this form of connection at all. It encourages selfishness, fake individualism and misery, in order to make you largely helpless consumers, and stop you collaborating with people in general. Happiness has become a business, but real happiness is free. Unhappiness has become a political tool, to drive further unhappiness.

He opens. In Europe:

I leave the house. I can’t go twenty feet without someone shouting my name. Hey, Umair! It’s the old gay couple who lives around the corner. How are you guys, I shout back, over the roar of a bus and a scooter. Me and Snowy walk on. He sees one of his buddies. This is twenty feet later. They squeal in excitement, and I’m talking to Karina, little June’s mom, about her new job. We walk on, and thirty feet later, it’s my new friend Jane, who works at the cafe I’m going to, and she’s going to sing on one of my songs, because she’s an aspiring singer. Another fifty feet. An elderly lady swoons over little Snowy. Gets misty eyed. Tells me about the dogs she’s had. We stand there talking, and I get a little emotional, too.

Half an hour’s gone by. We finally make it to the cafe, which is five minutes up the street. And there, the whole thing starts over. The crew working at the cafe says Snowy! They pet him and he grins up at them. He begins to boop random people — it’s his favorite thing — and they lean down and say hi. Plenty of us begin. There’s a girl there who’s moving over from America, a young distinguished scholar, and we make quick friends. The couple we see every other day is there, and we talk about what’s new in the neighborhood.

An hour’s gone by. And I’ve barely had my coffee and begun to have my thinking time. LOL. In America? None of this happens. Everyone walks on by, in stony silence. 

Perhaps in the US, everything is so transient, or so dependent on precarious incomes, that people defend themselves by not bonding with each other casually. He continues

My happiness levels rise because of the way life is in my little neighborhood in Europe. They rise dramatically. It’s not a small thing. It’s a big one. In America? I go a couple of weeks without this intense level of daily sociality — and I begin to feel shaky

America has no hope of happiness, because everything is neoliberal, individual, a private good. There is, in the cities, at least no building of community, and this creates unease, and danger – anyone could shoot you. Indeed, breaking connection may lead many people to madness, making the streets seem full of danger increases that madness, and leads people to embrace organised closeness and protection as in street gangs or political gangs who denounce the other side.

Psychology’s come to understand this. This open secret to happiness: sociality. And it flips everything on its head, really. Think of the way that Americans chase happiness. All those books, classes, quests. Happiness is chased the way everything else is in America: as a private good…

Happiness is not a private good. So you can’t go out there and chase it individualistically that way, like a little atom. That’s why this happiness industry in America so often appears to be selling snake oil. 

Humans are social animals, not disconnected beings. they require connection to be content or happy, even if they don’t realise it, and keep contacts down to be safe . Probably Trump supporters get more out of associating with like-minded and bonded people than they do out of Trump’s words.

What does my little daily set of interactions in Europe do? I mean that literally. Think about it. To get to a cafe that’s five minutes away, I spend half an hour chatting. Laughing. Smiling. Knowing, sharing, giving, caring. Sometimes these encounters are with my neighbors. Sometimes they’re with perfect strangers. Sometimes, they’re mundane. Sometimes, they’re deeply moving and profound. But in either way, I am enriched. Vastly enriched. I’m lighter, having shared my own worries and concerns. I’m more joyous, feeling the happiness of someone else about something good in their life.

We are connected. 

Happiness to repeat is social – working together, being together. It has nothing to do with buying things, or being alone.

What does that mean happiness is? Happiness is a public good. That might sound trite, but I assure you, it’s not. Think again about America. How is happiness framed? Titles of a few of those bestsellers about happiness: “The Art of Not Giving a F&ck.” “How to Be a Badass.” America’s approach to happiness is about individualism, about having happiness as a private good, something you possess, own — like anything else in a capitalist society, really, no different from, say, a big house all your own, a sports car, a wine cellar.

But happiness, it seems to me — and to psychology, increasingly — is not that at all. It’s a public good. And that means that either we all have it, or we don’t.

That is the social secret that could help change society for the better. But who will risk it? who will not convince themselves they already have enough of other people?

Marketplace of ideas

April 12, 2023

The idea of the marketplace of ideas is a good metaphor for what we live with.

The value of an idea is:

  • How easily it can be sold, to as many people as possible.
  • Whether it makes money.
  • Whether it supports the power and income of the firm who starts it off or promotes it.
  • Whether it helps you to buy further products or ideas from the promotor.

Not whether the idea is accurate or not.

Accuracy can:

  • Scare people so they want to ignore it, and
  • They won’t buy the idea, or further ideas from the promotor.
  • Be relatively incomprehensible if it does not meld with previously bought ideas.

UN Secretary Generals video message on the Synthesis Report

March 22, 2023

This is pretty straightforwardly a reproduction of the original with a bit of abridgement and reformatting.

If there is a copyright issue please let me know in the comments, and I will remove it.

*************

Dear friends,

Humanity is on thin ice – and that ice is melting fast. 

As today’s report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) details, humans are responsible for virtually all global heating over the last 200 years. 

The rate of temperature rise in the last half century is the highest in 2,000 years.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest in at least two million years.

The climate time-bomb is ticking. 

But today’s IPCC report is a how-to guide to defuse the climate time-bomb.

It is a survival guide for humanity. 

As it shows, the 1.5-degree limit is achievable.

But it will take a quantum leap in climate action.

This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe.

In short, our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once. 

I have proposed to the G20 a Climate Solidarity Pact – in which all big emitters make extra efforts to cut emissions, and wealthier countries mobilize financial and technical resources to support emerging economies in a common effort to keep 1.5 degrees alive.  

Today, I am presenting a plan to super-charge efforts to achieve this Climate Solidarity Pact through an all-hands-on-deck Acceleration Agenda.

It starts with parties immediately hitting the fast-forward button on their net zero deadlines to get to global net zero by 2050 – in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances.
 
Specifically, leaders of developed countries must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2040, the limit they should all aim to respect.
 
This can be done.  Some have already set a target as early as 2035.

Leaders in emerging economies must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2050 – again, the limit they should all aim to respect.

A number have already made the 2050 commitment. 

This is the moment for all G20 members to come together in a joint effort, pooling their resources and scientific capacities as well as their proven and affordable technologies through the public and private sectors to make carbon neutrality a reality by 2050.

Every country must be part of the solution. 

Demanding others move first only ensures humanity comes last.

The Acceleration Agenda calls for a number of other actions.

Specifically:

  • No new coal and the phasing out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 in all other countries.
  • Ending all international public and private funding of coal.
  • Ensuring net zero electricity generation by 2035 for all developed countries and 2040 for the rest of the world.
  • Ceasing all licensing or funding of new oil and gas – consistent with the findings of the International Energy Agency.
  • Stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves.
  • Shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to a just energy transition.
  • Establishing a global phase down of existing oil and gas production compatible with the 2050 global net zero target.

I urge all governments to prepare energy transition plans consistent with these actions and ready for investors.

I am also calling on CEOs of all oil and gas companies to be part of the solution.

They should present credible, comprehensive and detailed transition plans in line with the recommendations of my High-Level Expert Group on net zero pledges.

These plans must clearly detail actual emission cuts for 2025 and 2030, and efforts to change business models to phase out fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy.

This acceleration has already started in some sectors, but investors now need crystal clear signals.

And all governments need the assurance that business leaders will help them deliver on extra efforts – but governments must also create an enabling policy and regulatory environment.

Shipping, aviation, steel, cement, aluminum, agriculture – every sector must be aligned with net zero by 2050 with clear plans including interim targets to get there.

At the same time, we need to seize the opportunity to invest in credible innovations that can contribute to reaching our global targets. 

We must also speed-up efforts to deliver climate justice to those on the frontlines of many crises – none of them they caused. 

We can do this by:

  • Safeguarding the most vulnerable communities, and scaling up finance and capacities for adaptation and loss and damage.
  • Promoting reforms to ensure Multilateral Development Banks provide more grants and concessional loans and fully mobilize private finance.
  • Delivering on the financial commitments made in Copenhagen, Paris and Glasgow.
  • Replenishing the Green Climate Fund this year and developing a roadmap to double adaptation finance before 2025.
  • Protecting everyone with early warning systems against natural disasters in four years.
  • Implementing the new loss and damage fund this year.

The longer we wait on any of these crucial issues, the harder it will become.

…..

The transition must cover the entire economy.

Partial pledges won’t cut it….

We have never been better equipped to solve the climate challenge – but we must move into warp speed climate action now.

We don’t have a moment to lose.

Thank you.

IPCC: Summary of 2023 Synthesis Report

March 21, 2023

Most of this is quotations from The Synthesis Report Summary.

Optimism

Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years (high confidence).

The rate of growth in emissions between 2010 and 2019 (1.3% year) was lower than that between 2000 and 2009 (2.1% year).

Maintaining emission-intensive systems may, in some regions and sectors, be more expensive than transitioning to low emission systems [however the question for business is, which is the most profitable on the whole, and which loses the least already made capital investment?]

The Situation with GHG Emissions

Global net anthropogenic GHG emissions have been estimated to be 59±6.6 GtCO2-eq in 2019

In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (410 parts per million) were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence), and concentrations of methane (1866 parts per billion) and nitrous oxide (332 parts per billion) were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years (very high confidence). [we are headed towards a non-human world.

Emissions reductions in CO2-FFI [from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial] due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings.

If the annual CO2 emissions between 2020–2030 stayed, on average, at the same level as 2019, the resulting cumulative emissions would almost exhaust the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%), and deplete more than a third of the remaining carbon budget for 2°C (67%). Estimates of future CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructures without additional abatement already exceed the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C (50%) (high confidence). [It is logical to assume that no new gas and oil sources are needed]

[Bad news is that at current rates of reduction ie policy failure we are locked-in for between 2 and 4 degrees increase. The higher ends of that is catastrophic.]

Some Effects

In all regions increases in extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases (very high confidence) and the incidence of vector-borne diseases (high confidence) have increased. In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (high confidence).

Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism. Individual livelihoods have been affected through, for example, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, human health and food security, with adverse effects on gender and social equity.(high confidence).

In urban areas, observed climate change has caused adverse impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure. Hot extremes have intensified in cities. Urban infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being. Observed adverse impacts are concentrated amongst economically and socially marginalised urban residents.

[increasing drought, fires, infectious diseases, floods, displacement, glacier retreat, ocean acidification]

Challenges

There are widening disparities between the estimated costs of adaptation and the finance allocated to adaptation.

Climate finance growth has slowed since 2018

The IPCC still thinks Carbon Capture & Storage is required. which basically blows any optimism for me.

[However they recognise this problem]: Implementation of CCS currently faces technological, economic, institutional, ecological, environmental and socio-cultural barriers. Currently, global rates of CCS deployment are far below those in modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C.

The report also says over-reliance tree planting and biomass crops paired with CCS, can have adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts, including on biodiversity, food and water security, local livelihoods and the rights of Indigenous Peoples, especially if implemented at large scales and where land tenure is insecure.

Net zero CO2 energy systems entail: a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems; electricity systems that emit no net CO2; widespread electrification; alternative energy carriers in applications less amenable to electrification; energy conservation and efficiency; and greater integration across the energy system (high confidence).

The press release also states: The pace and scale of what has been done so far, and current plans, are insufficient to tackle climate change.

Consequences of not acting now

The higher the magnitude and the longer the duration of overshoot, the more ecosystems and societies are exposed to greater and more widespread changes in climatic impact-drivers, increasing risks for many natural and human systems…. Overshooting 1.5°C will result in irreversible adverse impacts on certain ecosystems with low resilience, such as polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet, glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise

The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence).

Ben Shapiro: Atheism Is Morally Bankrupt, Religion is Order

January 21, 2023

Right wing intellectual, Ben Shapiro, appears to try and avoid the challenges of social chaos and complexity by implicitly arguing that morals require the uniformity and imposition brought by religion.

[This style of text is Shapiro, as I understand him]

  • [This style of text is a comment]

Shapiro’s argument seems to go:

Atheists accuse religious people of being immoral and argue that if religion inculcated goodness then religious people would be good. They argue “if religion is good, why are religious believers often so bad?”

  • That is a common argument made by atheists. They say that religious belief does not guarantee morality in believers. Therefore there is nothing particularly wonderful about religious morals, or religion in inculcating morals. If we are discussing morals, this is a point to be considered.

However, Shapiro responds to this point by writing, “Of course, one could ask this about any philosophy – most people are in fact sinful and wicked, and have the capacity for good.” 

  • So he appears to dismiss the question of whether religion is a good source of morals, by saying nothing is. He will forget this as he goes on, but let’s agree and make the proposition: ‘There may be no philosophy, the holding of which will guarantee that the holders will be good.’ If this is true then it applies to religion (as Shapiro is doing here) as well as to non-religion. It does not justify religion as a sources of morals, it excuses it.

He continues by arguing that atheism cannot establish a moral framework, and hence that atheism cannot guarantee people will be good.

  • We have already agreed with him that no philosophy will guarantee those who hold it will be good. It is as true of atheists as of religious people.
  • However, I have never heard an atheist claim, in the way that religious people can make claims, that only atheists can be good or that religious people are all morally dead, or that all religious people should be killed. It is not a general part of atheist philosophy. So his argument is completely irrelevant to the initial point that religion does not guarantee morality, and does not display any indications that there is anything supernaturally beneficial about religious morals.
  • His argument does not claim that religious people are generally more moral than atheists, or that religions give an infallible basis for morals, or even that religions provide a moral moral framework which is good, and which works. He does not try to. Indeed he asks:

“how we are supposed to judge whether the religion is promoting something morally good or bad without another frame of moral reference.”

  • This is another extremely important question, which he ignores, and he asserts:

“atheism itself can make no self-sustaining moral claims on human beings.“ 

  • I agree again to an extent. But that is not the point of atheism. Atheism is not about establishing moral claims. His argument also ignores atheist philosophers who have made coherent moral systems with claims on people. David Hume for example.
  • Even if it is correct that atheism makes no self-sustaining moral claims on human beings, that does not mean that all, or even any, religion is promoting something necessarily good. That some set of ideas cannot do something well, does not mean that another set of ideas it attacks, will necessarily do that something well. We can return to the principle that ‘There may be no philosophy, the holding of which will guarantee that the holders will be good.’
  • However, atheists do make an implicit argument that ‘if you do not embrace truth and reality, you cannot be moral’. I think this is a valid argument about morals, and not to be ignored as Shapiro does.
  • The atheist position implies that if you accept the absolute morality of beings who torture people forever, commit genocide, or demand people’s deaths for eating shellfish or being gay, or whatever, then you will have a dangerously warped moral sense. And indeed we can see this throughout history. People driven by their religious beliefs can do things, which I, and often other religious people, judge to be immoral and not to be praised, but which are covered up or celebrated by the religion. Rape of children by godly men, is the obvious example, and appears to occur in most organised large scale religions.
  • Atheists may also argue that different religious systems have different moral systems and promote different laws. Hence there is nothing obvious about religious morals, other than the authority being claimed for them and the punishments threatened for disobeying them. How do we know those particular morals are moral? This is another important question when we consider the morals of religion. To requote Shapiro: “”how we are supposed to judge whether the religion is promoting something morally good or bad without another frame of moral reference?”

He then appears to avoid these issues about morality, by claiming that atheism is bad because atheist governments have been murderous: they “have been far more murderous and tyrannical than any religious theocracy in history.”

  • I’m not sure Nazism was atheist. Hitler definitely talks about his guidance by metaphysical concepts. Jewish people had been condemned and murdered by Christians for a long time so the Holocaust may exist because of religion, and the Nazis approved ‘Aryan Christianity’. Mussolini generally had a good relationship with the Catholic Church. However, religious governments are also murderous: inquisitions, pogroms, brutal punishments for sinners, and religious wars do happen. All European wars and conquests have been backed and justified by churches. So far the religious haven’t had the technology of mass murder down to the art it reached in the 20th Century under Nazism, but if they ever get into total power again, it is not unreasonable to expect that the full technology of death and suffering will be used to purge the world of sin and disagreement.

He asserts: “Atheism promotes a vision of mankind entirely at odds with the building of a productive society: it suggests materialism, which means lack of free will; it undermines the unique value of human beings, which undermines liberty and rights; it dismisses the value of tradition in favor of a reason it cannot defend on its own terms.” In another place he argues:

“a Godless world is a soulless world…. Transcending biology and our environment requires a higher power — a spark of the supernatural” (2). 

  • It is amazing that he is apparently unaware of the idea that God being all-powerful and all-knowing has determined or determines everything that happens or will happen. This also gives a lack of effective freewill.
  • Materialism does not have to back determinism, any more than religion does. Materialism nowadays should embody complexity, and challenge the fuzzy boundaries between mind and matter. Materialism is not necessarily in opposition to consciousness. While materialism may undermine traditions based on religion, so does capitalism, and he is not attacking that for some reason.
  • He presents no evidence for the idea that we can only make moral choices because of ideas like soul, or that morality involves transcending biology – perhaps the ability to learn a morality is part of out biology, like the ability to learn language, or the need to socialise and form social groups.
  • This is an undemonstrable assertion not an absolute truth, and quite possibly asserts that non monotheisms, and that religions which don’t promise an afterlife are immoral as well.

His major implied point here seems to be that many major religions demand behaviour they call ‘morals’. They tell us what to do, and threaten punishments for those who don’t do it, and therefore form a good basis for the State (or at least an authoritarian state).

  • It seems to me (but I won’t insist on it) that Shapiro is implying that if the population is ‘brainwashed’ by a religion, then they will all have the same morals and think the same way, and this will bring about social harmony and agreement. In this way religion builds order out of chaos and protects against chaos. This may be correct (although I suspect it leads to a lot of murder of deviant thinkers and a lot of blowback), but if so, it might seem he is in favor of authoritarianism, and of people who are violent arbiters of morals. This may not require religion, as he has argued above with respect to atheist governments, it just requires a passionate and thorough intolerance of dissent or questioning – which may equally lead to social breakdown, social distrust and fracture as people struggle to assert their innocence, and show how good they are by accusing others.

He also implies that as atheism does not tell us what to do, (apart from asking us not to believe in falsity, undemonstrable propositions, or in incoherent gods, theologies and religious morals) it, perhaps, asks us to think and question, and is BAD. “As a system of thought, atheism cannot be the basis for any functional state” (2).

  • Even if atheism could never be a basis for a functional state, that does not prove that religious morals can deal with the complexity of modern life, do not have unintended consequences, are a real basis for a functional state, or are moral.
  • It apparently does not matter if the morals taught by a religion are ethical, coherent, beneficial, cruel or even if they do always provide the basis for a ‘productive society’, as long as we are all told what to do, and can stop thinking or questioning those morals, and we agree on what is moral on fear of death or God’s displeasure. That is all.
  • Religion just functions to declare morals and produce order by enforcing those morals. It makes things simple and generally agreed. This makes it good. Whether this order and uniformity allows us to deal with complexity, or not make mistakes, or be moral is irrelevant.
  • To make this argument, he needs to ignore the questions of ‘what is morality,’ ‘do religions all have good morals’ ‘how do we decide whether a system of morals is good’. He raises these issues to ignore them immediately. He implies that it is enforced order which is good and justifies morals being enforced.
  • This implicit praise of any order as long as it can be called ‘religious,’ seems, to me, to be an immoral basis for morals.
  • It could be suggested that he is not really a friend to religion and that his position is morally bankrupt.

References:

Unless specified the arguments come from

https://www.facebook.com/officialbenshapiro/posts/776862607128379/

(2) indicates they come from:

https://townhall.com/columnists/benshapiro/2008/12/18/why-atheism-is-morally-bankrupt-n734917

https://www.dailywire.com/news/shapiro-debunking-atheism

Problems with, and potential necessity of Geoengineering

January 6, 2023

If businesses and States, do not reduce GreenHouse Gas (GHG) emissions, and do not stop destroying ecologies, then it is possible that the only way of keeping completely wild weather in check will be through geoengineering (GE).

GE is engineering the ecology and climate itself, to lessen climate change. The most usual projected method is to reflect solar radiation back into space, through the release of reflective particulate matter high in the atmosphere, or through mirrors in space etc…. I doubt huge mirrors in space will be used as they are too expensive and they may move out of orbit.

The problems with GE should be obvious.

  1. Ecologies and climates are complex systems.
  2. If we can’t alter complex human systems, to prevent climate change, what hope do we have of changing the world’s own complex systems and their multitude of interactions in a controllable or beneficial manner? We also have to somehow control human reactions to make it work. For example – no increasing emissions because we are now ‘safe’ etc.
  3. It is impossible to predict exactly what will occur when we start GE.
  4. It has been suggested that some areas will loose or gain rainfall dramatically. Some areas may lose plant cover etc.
  5. If we leave it too late then the Earth’s weather patterns may have changed so much, that we have nothing to work with in terms of predicting effects, and little ability to tell the effects of GE from climate change chaos.
  6. It is possible that some business and nation states would attempt GE independently with no co-ordination. This could have deeply difficult results.
  7. Some nations may protest about their losses, and there will be losses from either climate change or GE, and we may not be able to tell the difference.
  8. Nations may accuse other nations of conducting climate war against them. They could conceivably be right. This is likely to produce international tensions, and interfere in the governance and application of GE.
  9. As GE by itself does not reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions, the planet’s oceans will continue to absorb CO2, and become more acidic. This may kill much plankton and other marine life. Ocean Death would be a major ecological calamity.
  10. To understand what GE we should perform, we need accurate computer models. We have good computer models of global weather systems, but not yet good enough. Once we start interfering, then there is no baseline, we no-longer know ‘for sure’ whether we are doing the right things or not. This can possibly be overcome by intensive research projects working with models and their prediction capacity – but again we are working with complex systems and human political factors. There could also be large numbers of others factors we won’t know about until they hit us.
  11. if we suffer a world economic set back or a world war, then the GE would probably stop and, unless we had reduced emissions considerably, then we would likely experience an even more rapid climate change, as the controls would be released.

GE is a really bad idea. However, if we do not push for action now to reduce fossil fuel and other emissions, we may have to try it.

Climate change and new paradigms

January 3, 2023

‘Paradigms’ are typical patterns of thought, acceptance of thought, together with research practices. They provide guides for people. In his 1962 book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, which gave the term its current common meaning, Kuhn defined scientific paradigms as: “universally recognized scientific achievements that, for a time, provide model problems and solutions to a community of practitioners”.

One question that arises quite often is whether climate change is simply a paradigm that will be abandoned, or whether it will be stable. The basic theory that CO2 and other greenhouse gases can act as a blanket (or greenhouse) holding in heat, and causing warming, has stood for well over 100 years. The observations indicating global warming have been going on for about 50-70 years, so climate change is as well established as a fact as any science can be. Almost certainly the paradigm and the interpretation of global warming will change and grow with more research and modelling, but that does not mean it is wrong, or that it has not contributed shifts to thought, producing new paradigms, already.

In my opinion, a major paradigm shift has happened over the last 40 years largely due to climate studies.

Many people nowadays understand weather, climate and ecologies (and societies) as complex/chaotic systems, which have particular properties, which were previously unexpected.

For example, while these systems normally function under an unstable equilibrium, changes and stress in the system can build up, so that the systems can rapidly change state, even in human terms. In retrospect we call these places which begin the rapid change ‘tipping points’. We can predict that there will be tipping points in climate change when methane is released from the ocean, or the currently frozen tundras or the ice caps melt. Other tipping points may emerge when forests turn into net carbon emitters and so on.

While previously we thought significant climate change (without a massive accident such as meteorite collision) happened slowly in human terms, now we know it can happen quickly. We also know more about the conditions of ‘great extinctions’ and ‘ocean death’ and so are aware that we are building the conditions towards these kinds of events.

We also know that it is extremely difficult and perhaps impossible to predict the state of a complex system in the future. The further into the future the less likely we can predict its state. Consequently all we can predict is increasing climate turmoil, droughts, massive bush fires, storms, flooding, changes in temperature and so on. It is hard to tell people in, say, London, they will experience this kind of weather, this kind of temperature change etc. The gulf stream may drop away due to global heating, and the weather may get colder in London. All we can really and truthfully predict is that the change will hurt people more, and cause social instability.

This lack of accuracy in prediction is something that is often used to deny climate change, (“they said it would get hotter and dryer, but its flooding”). However, it’s hard to predict the weather 3 or 4 weeks in advance, and we are now dealing with constantly changing weather patterns, moving into situations we have not encountered before, so prediction gets more difficult – and the more the system departs from its previous equilibrium states, the worse this will get.

People have also been looking more at the social dynamics of climate change, as that is a major factor in what will happen. So far we can say, governments and businesses are nearly all failing dismally to deal with the problem, and have been since the 1990s. This is probably because of the amount of propaganda issued by powerful corporations and their hangers on, telling us the science is uncertain, or that remedies are too costly.

We are discovering the truth of many previous theories of social collapse – basically the dominating classes want to hang on to their habits, riches and power and the only way they think they can respond is by continuing the situation which has brought them riches and power – to hell with everyone else. As a result society is stuck with solutions to old problems. These old solutions cannot deal with the new problems and make those new problems worse. Societies can be maladaptive systems – however it is also possible that changes in the base (amongst ordinary people) could change social trajectories.

That represents a bit of a change in social theory, which tended to think that the dominant classes were clever and adapted to new situations, and that societies could structure ‘nature’ indefinitely in ways they required.

So global warming is already changing our paradigms, and that changes the data we look for, and all of that data (that I’m aware of) is pretty much pointing to more extreme weather, and more difficult living conditions. It would be sensible to take these new paradigms seriously, and do what you can at a local level as well as a State or business level.