Sri Lanka and Green Policy

July 15, 2022

There are a lot of media people (for example: [1], [2], [3]) claiming that one failed ‘experiment’ in Sri Lanka means that we should never change to organic agriculture or follow any Green policies. Sri Lanka is, they say, a dire warning to everyone about becoming Green.

However, that Sri Lanka failed to solve a problem, does not mean the problem is not real, or that chemical fertilisers, pesticides and weed killers are not having “adverse health and environmental impacts” as ex-president Rajapaska said to the UN. Industrialised agriculture does degrade the soil, pollute the waterways (poisoning fish and people), and is a major contributor to greenhouse gases – it releases 13% of the total GHG in Australia. On top of which “Global pesticide use has steadily increased from an estimated 2.3 million tonnes of active ingredient in 1990 to 4.1 million tonnes in 2016“. This could be why there is a world wide collapse in insect populations, and the populations of creatures and plants that depend on them. [See also]

In the UN speech quoted above, Rajapaska also talked about “a wider programme that includes enhancing market oriented inclusive food value chains to reduce rural poverty.” The commentators do not talk about this wider programme. It seems likely a whole collection of policies caused the problems but these particular commentators only focus on the organic farming policies.

it is important to acknowledge that the root cause of the current economic crisis is because of Sri Lanka’s decades long neoliberal programs. And that is what a majority of the Western media won’t cover.

Pitasanna Shanmugathas Sri Lanka Is A Neoliberal Failed State. Columbo Telegraph 22 July 2022

As that article attempts to document, Sri Lanka, went through cutbacks in social welfare and social expenditure, privatisation, expansion of military spending, dependence on exports and imports rather then ‘inefficient’ local trade, increase in wealth inequalities, and so on.

Sri Lanka could be a dire warning, but it could also be a ‘useful’ warning about bad policies and the consequences of external pressures.

The Obvious Mistakes

In terms of food production, Rajapaksa banned all imports of agricultural chemicals in April 2021, some claim without any warning at all.

Unless you have total faith in the market to make up shortfalls with acceptable chemical or ‘natural’ substitutes manufactured locally, this is obviously foolish, and going to lead to shortfalls of food. It is also likely to throw some importing companies out of work, making you enemies.

On top of this the Government did nothing to increase the production of substitutes, or make the money available for purchase of local substitutes, which could be expected to increase in price due to the shortage, perhaps because of its faith in the market to supply people. Others have suggested these moves were deliberate to break small farmers and leave their farms open for purchase by wealthy farmers, which is not an unusual market tactic. An organic farmer is quoted as saying

Prior to this policy, the government had unsuccessfully tried to commercialise farm land, which is the biggest commercial asset the country has. So many of us think this was another way to try and get farmers to leave their land, or to weaken the farmers’ position and enable a land grab

Ellis-Peterson ‘It will be hard to find a farmer left’: Sri Lanka reels from rash fertiliser ban. The Guardian 20 April 2022

Others allege it was an attempt to greenwash the country’s inability to afford fertiliser, because of the existing financial crisis.

Furthermore, the government did not put in place any educational programs to help farmers learn composting techniques, or give them time to build up soil quality after their intensive use of chemical fertilisers. Essentially it withdrew aid to small farmers. With diesel prices more than doubling, many farmers could also not use their farm equipment.

These actions were followed by (or caused) a collapse in rice yields by about 30%. Sri Lanka’s primary export, tea, declined by nearly 20%. This was predictable.

The government eventually yielded to farmers protests and relaxed the ban, but removed subsidies after the price of fertilisers had increased due to the war in Ukraine “because other countries have long-term contracts that have tied up supplies,” according to a retired Indian diplomat Neelam Deo. So the strain was not released.

The Financial Crisis

Rajapaksa also had made the classic neoliberal error of borrowing to fund infrastructure projects while cutting tax revenue. It is hard to evaluate infrastructure projects, but it is possible some were dubious, or ended up being controlled by the lender. By 2020 Sri Lankan debt had reached 101% of its GDP. One ratings organisation remarked: “the Sri Lankan government will have to allocate around 29 billion USD between now and 2026 to service debt repayments alone.”

The resulting debt, together with currency depreciation, led to overseas organisations removing money from the country, and further depleted the government’s coffers. This caused the financial crisis.

In April 2022 it was reported that:

The country barely has any foreign currency reserves left, leading to dangerous shortages of food, gas and medicines as it is unable to import foreign goods, while people are enduring power blackouts of up to eight hours a day.

Ellis-Peterson Sri Lanka facing imminent threat of starvation, senior politician warns. The Guardian 7 April 2022

The collapse in medical supplies means that many people will die or cease to be self supporting.

As well as the debt, Sri Lanka’s economy had been simultaneously affected by Covid and terrorism, with a decline in tourism. Then the war in Ukraine increased fuel prices (Russia and Ukraine are also apparently its best source of tourists) and then the government defaulted on 51b of debt before negotiating anything with the IMF.

Electricity

The previously mentioned collapse in electricity supply meant that many shops and local industries cannot function. This was primarily connected to fossil fuel energy supplies, not to any renewable development.

The Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) lost 65 billion rupees ($185 million) in the first quarter and sought an 835 percent price hike for the heavily-subsided smallest power consumers, the Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) said…. Domestic rates have yet to be decided, but prices will go up by 43 to 61 percent for commercial and industrial users

Sri Lanka electricity firm seeks 835% price rise. France 24 27 June 2022

Sri Lanka’s primary energy supply mainly comes from oil and coal. Almost 40% of Sri Lanka’s electricity came from hydropower in 2017 but coal’s shares in power generation has been increasing since 2010.

IEA Sri Lanka

Greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 517% since 1990, and it appears there are no large scale incursions by renewables – possibly because the grid is not adequate. So there is no resilience, or challenge, provided by local renewables, and Sri Lanka has little to no coal deposits and its oil company has been losing money, the problem is running out of supplies.

https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/sri-lanka

At the end of June 2022, the government suspended all sales of fuel to anyone other than essential services, due to lack of fuel supplies. They also closed down schools, and reduced the government workforce to reduce commuting.

Widespread Protests

There were mass protests calling for Rajapaksa to resign and almost all the cabinet resigned, in protest over Rajapaksa’s behaviour.

There is some evidence the government was corrupt and disconnected from the people, such as the appointment of family members to important positions where they fought each other,

Since he was elected, Rajapaksa, who hails from Sri Lanka’s most powerful political dynasty, has worked to concentrate power in the hands of himself and his relatives. 

Ellis-Peterson Sri Lanka facing imminent threat of starvation, senior politician warns. The Guardian 7 April 2022

and the luxury of the homes revealed by the riots. The Government suppressed criticism of their policies in general. As defense minister, Rajapaska may have overseen the death of 40,000 Tamils, and others accuse him of having stolen billions from the country (I have no evidence).

World Crisis, not Local Crisis

Sri Lanka is not the only place in the world likely to suffer crisis. A UN Global Crisis Response Groups brief from 8th June 2022 warns that:

people globally are facing a cost-of-living crisis not seen in more than a generation, with escalating price shocks in the global food, energy and fertilizer markets – in a world already grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic and climate change….

An estimated 1.6 billion people in 94 countries are exposed to at least one dimension of the crisis, and about 1.2 billion of them live in ‘perfect-storm’ countries which are severely vulnerable to all three dimensions…

the war [in Ukraine with the resultant food shortages], together with the other crises, is threatening to unleash an unprecedented wave of hunger and destitution, leaving social and economic chaos in its wake,

Today, about 60 percent of the world’s workforce is estimated to have lower incomes than before the pandemic. More than half of the world’s poorest countries are in debt distress or at high risk of it.

War in Ukraine threatens to unleash “unprecedented wave” of global hunger and destitution, warns UN Chief. UN Press Release 8 June 2022.

The World Bank has said almost 60% of the lowest-income countries are in debt distress. The President of the World Bank stated:

I’m deeply concerned about developing countries… They are facing sudden price increases for energy, fertiliser, and food, and the likelihood of interest rate increases. Each one hits them hard…. People are facing reversals in development for education, health, and gender equality… They’re facing reduced commercial activity and trade. Also the debt crises and currency depreciations have a burden that falls heavily on the poor… Food crises are bad for everyone, but they are devastating for the poorest and most vulnerable.

The inequality gap has widened materially, with wealth and income concentrating in narrow segments of the global population. Rate hikes, interest rate hikes, if that’s the primary tool, will actually add to the inequality challenge that the world is facing.

Spring Meetings 2022 Media Roundtable Opening Remarks by World Bank Group President David Malpass. 18 April 2022

The chances are high that other countries will default or suffer considerable food distress. Sri Lanka just happened to be the first. It was not a problem of organic agriculture but of general economic failure and external pressures. Even this badly executed process of organic transition could possibly have been met with food imports or suspension of food exports, the monetary and external crises made it impossible

Predicted cuts in aid by Western powers, trying to glide over the crises they face, will likely make things even worse.

Initial source Time Magazine

Ostrom’s ‘Laws’ of the Commons

July 10, 2022

This is a summary of a section in Elinor Ostrom’s Rules for Radicals by Derek Wall, Pluto Press, 2017. 28-32.

The idea is that looking at laws of the commons, may help community renewable energy survive if it can get established.

1) Commons need to have boundaries and belong to a community that takes responsibility for conserving them. They are not open to people from other groups without permission. This reduces the freeloading problem described by Gareth Hardin, in the famous Tragedy of the Commons, and Hardin’s later recognition that well-managed commons could escape the tragedy.

  • In terms of renewable energy, this means that there has to be a way of ensuring that the community gets access to the energy first, and it is stored for use by the community. Only when the community is satisfied is the energy sold on. This might be impossible, without decent weather prediction capacity. A problem might be that some people use more than others forcing others to buy in energy. This may suggest people have agreed on allocations of energy.
  • I’m not sure what happens if people elect to be outside the community energy gird, or even if that would be a problem.

2) Commons rules should be adapted to local circumstances, especially local environmental circumstances, rather than have uniformity imposed upon them. Different environments call for different uses.

Rules often involve limits- such as you may only gaze so many animals, take so much water, and at certain times of year.
We might note that these rules are often ritualised. Opening the commons on Lamas, coordinating the waters by phase of the moon, or divination… this all makes the commons part of the cosmos.

  • The community energy field and source has to be chosen with respect to land use, and environmental features. This is to be done by residents. Perhaps people have to have limits as to what they can take from community energy and storage – perhaps by time of day – to help avoid overconsumption? Making the energy commons part of the cosmos may be difficult in a non ritualised society.

3) Participants in the commons should participate in the rules decisions and rule making. The hope is that rules will be adjusted to changing circumstances, and that people will respect their own rules decisions. Participants will also regulate access to the commons so that it does not get exhausted. Again local decisions, enforced by local people, are more likely to be respected.

  • It may not be community energy without participatory governance by the members. However, not everyone may have the time to participate.

4) Commons use must be monitored. Some commons hire a person to be a monitor (for each type of commons available),to make sure it is all working and that people are not freeloading. With a small measurable commons, this may be done by the community as a whole. Records need to be kept.

  • With community energy there will need to be meters of some kind for costing and payment, or recognising export to the grid. It may be that nothing else needs doing. But it maybe good to have the meter reader as a recognised position, which gives a person in the community something back in return

5) Sanctions are gradated so that soft abuses do not get the same restrictions as hard or repeated abuses. Someone might not be served in the local pub for example. The idea is to bring the person back into using the commons as agreed, not endanger them.

  • Probably not an issue, but people should be prepared.

6) Low cost easy and local conflict resolution – This may require people to be equal so that the more powerful do not take advantage.

  • It doesn’t matter how well intentioned everyone is, there will be dispute and an effective and recognised dispute settling process needs to exist. This may be an occasion in which State governments need to legislate for communities, and recognise local variations in custom, so that people cannot just ignore them.

7) Recognition of the rights of commoners to organise themselves free of takeover from the State. Recognition of a right to exist easily. There is a general suggestion that commons should not be top down, or regulated at a distance, but they can be enabled from a distance.

  • Community Energy in Australia is currently hampered by regulation and its right to exist freely and easily, needs to be part of the way it is managed.

8) Commons may need to be interconnected or nested, possibly so that they reinforce one another or can be co-ordinated over a larger area.

Process thought and complexity

July 10, 2022

This is based on Jay McDaniel’s What is Process Thought, Process Century Press, 2021.

Process thinking resembles complexity and ecological thinking…. Most of the points below would be recognised in both other forms of thinking.

McDaniel describes some characteristics of process thinking, on pp.20-21, 33ff. There are distortions in the replication below and I have rearranged the points to make the flow more persuasive to me. Statements between brackets are additions to express the importance of ‘disorder’….

1) The Term ‘process’ suggests that the cosmos flows, constantly building [and destroying] itself. The cosmos is never precisely the same in any two moments.

2) The cosmos is continuously creative. New events are constantly coming into existence. Novelty is normal.

[Process thinkers tend to think of the world as resembling ‘verbs’, ‘events’, ‘happenings’, ‘patterns’ and so on, rather than resembling individual nouns doing, or suffering, actions]

3) The future is potentiality and possibility, it is not determined. We may need to be open to those possibilities, and to working with them, rather than thinking we can do nothing. The question is then, “How could we be best open to those possibilities?”
[Each point in time opens to infinite or large number of possibilities, although previous history may affect likelihoods of those possibilities]

4) Everything is interconnected or interdependent. ‘Things,’ nodes, or events cannot be separated out completely. Nothing exists by itself.

5) Everything has value, or relevance, in itself and in interconnection. Nothing existing is ‘dead’ or without potential, as it is part of process. Processes may seek balance or harmony [equilibrium]. [This balance or harmony may not necessarily include humans, especially if they work against it. For example if we disrupt ecologies too much then they may become uninhabitable by us.]

6) Humans find value in being in harmony with what is happening, with working with process and each other. Harmony is not sameness or enforced. Harmony allows change.

7) Humans find themselves in community or with others [human and non-human, and sometimes against others]. Recognising relationship is important, and we should aim for mutual respect and support. This includes recognising vulnerable and distressed people.

[What humans may call ‘disorder’ is a vital part of process, that needs respect. It can possibly arise because of misguided attempts to impose order, or because the humans refuse to recognise interconnected process, or ignore what is happening in the world and create an unconscious which will disrupt them.]

8) Power should be persuasive, or exemplary, rather than coercive, as coercive power disrupts natural processes or the flow. [All processes are natural]

9) Human ‘mentation’ involves reasoning, feeling, imagining, intuiting etc. and you cannot always separate these out, they can work together, and do [both for accuracy and inaccuracy…] Mind and body are not separate. We feel ourselves into the world, and the cosmos may behave like a mind.

10) It is too easy for humans to confuse the abstract with the particular. We should try not to confuse abstractions with actual events.

11) Humans can work with different perspectives and put them together into something new.

12) Education and learning is a life long process.

13) There is no separation between theory and practice. What you do, expresses what you believe and vice versa.

Summary of Praxeology post

July 7, 2022

This is trying to say much the same as the last post in a much less formal and much briefer manner

The point of praxeology is to make our axioms, suppositions, hypotheses, observations, and deductions obvious and open to criticism, so we can progress our understanding as we encounter new events and new understandings.

Capitalism is a set of social organisations of ‘forms’ or ‘systems’ of life

Human life occurs within interacting systems. The basic system on which all others depend are the planetary ecological systems. The capacity of human life depends on the functionality of these systems.

Propositions on Profit

Monetary profit seeking does not seem to be a sufficiently complex concept to drive a functional economic system. [People have many aims beyond profit.]

Monetary profit seeking appears to drive non-functional or even pathological systems, which delete human capacities, reduce most humans to machines for cheap labour, set up plutocratic forms of government and induce confusion and ignorance over vital information and understandings of problems.

Whatever pro-corporate economics says. there are no externalities to the planetary system, and any economics which considers pollution external to its own working, will cultivate non-functionality and death. It is useful to remember Ruskin’s idea of illth. Profit seeking will often produce externalised illth.

Continual enlargement of profit, company or economy is likely to be impossible, and should be treated with suspicion as generating non-functionality and destruction.

Freeloading

Freeloading seems inevitable in profit seeking and profit enlargement economies, and is harmful to social development, constructive co-operation and ecological functionality

Prices

Competition is imperfect and difficult because of the information system, and because of risk (companies are not providing exactly the same products).

Historical Digression: Trajectories of Capital accumulation

Differences in access to capital accumulation are not just the result of virtue, or productive talent as claimed by most pro-capitalist economic theory, but of a history of violence, theft and murder.

The advertised benefits of capitalism have largely been brought about by worker co-operation, threat of revolution and by becoming a market. The benefits have not been brought about by capitalists.

Proposition: Human Competition and Co-operation

Humans are both competitive and co-operative. Most pro-capitalists economics ignores co-operation between the wealth elites, against the working classes, but its important.

Propositions on power and economic action

Wealth is a basis for power.

Capitalism generates a situation of unequal wealth and hence unequal power – especially when the Wealth elites co-operate against the ‘lower classes’

Proposition: ‘Crony Capitalism’ and ‘State Capture’ are inevitable

Crony capitalism is normal and leads to State Capture or State Takeover – plutocracy. Capitalists use their wealth and power to shape the State to serve what they think are their best ends….

Wealth gives power, liberty and capacity; and inequality of wealth gives inequality of power liberty and capacity.

Siding with the elites

Some working people side with the capitalist class through taking managerial positions – however this may not lessen their vulnerability.

Power in the ‘Marketplace’

Power differentials affect market transactions and satisfactions.

Information system

Capitalism inherently confuses the information system by using it for advertising, PR, lies, etc., and by doing so, lowers that system’s capacity to provide useful and accurate information. This undermines the response of the wealth elites, and the polity as a whole, to real problems.

Information mess likely exists within most corporate bodies as well as in the more public sphere.

The information system is confused by normal action, so that various forms of market and social collapse are usually surprising.

Markets, Relationships and Trust (Morals?)

Human non-capitalist economies are as much about relationship and co-operation as monetary exchange. Exchange of money may defeat relationship.

Uncertainty and experimental politics

Uncertainty is normal in life and information incomplete even in the best circumstances. Hence policies should be regarded as experiments rather than as dogma. Attention should be paid to after-events in order to refine the actions and understandings.

Returning to systems

We live within systems. Individuals appear in systems of interactions.

The primary political need seems to be to recognise that we need functional ecologies in order to have functional economic systems, functional political systems and so on. Tending to ecologies is a fundamental political act that needs encouragement.

If we kill, or unrecoverably disrupt, our ecologies then the likelihood of us humans having much of a future severely diminishes….

Towards a real ‘praxeology’ of capitalism

July 6, 2022

Praxeology is the attempt to define the underlying logic of human action both individual and collective. It was a fundamental hallmark of Austrian ‘free market’ economics. It’s advantage is that, if conducted properly, it should make our axioms, suppositions, hypotheses, observations, and deductions obvious and open to criticism, so we can progress our understanding as we encounter new events and new perspectives. However, Austrian economics and its followers seem to have continually ignored empirical observations which suggest that capitalism would not work as they wanted it to behave. Rather than deal with the problems of their assumptions, or of capitalism, they have appeared to have wanted to blame others for capitalism’s failures (such as people with ‘good intentions’, socialists, state interference etc). Hence, their free market economics appears as if it is an attempt to protect capitalism from democratic influence or responsibility.

This is an attempt to describe human action without that particular bias.

This post will likely grow as I rethink it and rewrite it.

Capitalism is a set of social organisations of ‘forms’ or ‘systems’ of life:

Economic Life system: The organisation of exchange, trade, production, distribution of goods and wealth, property rights, ownership, credit, poverty, waste, pollution, extraction;
Political Life system: Relations of power and dominance, state organisation, taxes, active concerns, priorities, neglects, law, courts, regulation, policing, interaction with other groups, placing people in social categories to treat them ‘correctly’ (however ‘correctly’ is defined), warfare etc.
Informational Life system: Modes of gathering, producing, organisation, owning, distributing, suppressing or ignoring, information. Structures of communication. Modes of informational etiquette (such as abusing those who disagree) Modes of truth.
Energetic Life system: Labour, slavery, water, wind, solar, food, coal, wind, oil, nuclear etc.
Ecological Life system: Availability of resources, weather patterns, fertility, creatures, planetary boundaries etc…

  • [Capitalism also involves organisations of family, personal, educational and religious life (and so on), so that people can earn money, survive and find meaning within the overall system, but for the while we will ignore these factors, simply to make it relatively simple.]
  • [I have sometimes separated out the system of waste, pollution, dispersion, extraction and ecological destruction to emphasise its importance to current problems, and may do so again later. We can hypothesise that all economies depend on their systems of waste, pollution, dispersion and destruction.]

Despite coming last in this set of conditions, ecological systems are the fundamental basis of all life. Ecology is primary to all of economy, politics and energy use, although it is shaped by economy, politics and energy use. I’m not alone in asserting that politics and economics should be more focused on tending to the ecology, and keeping it healthy and functional, so as to help our survival. Functional, non-poisoned ecologies, in human terms, are vital.

All these forms or systems of life are bound together. You cannot separate them, and be realistic. Capitalism, politics, information, energy, ecology are all interacting complex systems. The imposition of one kind of order in one sphere, may generate unintended consequences or events, elsewhere, which are considered to be disorders.

Economic and political life are especially bound together. No capitalism has been observed without political life or without a State. Capitalism without States, may be possible, but so far it is a fantasy, and praxeology must deal with the real and observable, or be useless. Likewise no form of capitalism currently exists without an information system or without being within an ecology.

Proposition: All of these systems/forms of life have been impacted on over history, and this may affect their present condition and limit their probable futures.

The specific modes of organisation which define capitalism will become clearer as we progress, but the initial Primary guiding hypothesis is that the increase of monetary profit is the main drive and organising focus of capitalism – especially of neoliberal (current day) capitalism. Other forms and systems of social organisation, may not assume that monetary profit is the prime directive of all life. People may, for example, seek status (admiration from others) and power through displays of generosity or care.

A Secondary guiding hypothesis, which does not seem uniquely relevant to capitalism, is that the ruling elites (wealth or otherwise) will seek to maintain the conditions of their existence, and to increase their power (and profit). However, while they may have these intentions, there is no guarantee that they will succeed, or that they will not undermine themselves. The world is complex and escapes anyone’s total control.

Propositions on Profit

Definition: Profit is the extraction of money from the general economic process and its allocation to particular people in positions of business ownership, through legal means (ie political action), who then are said to make, and own, the profit. Profit arises within an underlying complex set of social processes or interdependencies (labour, provision of goods, provision of energy, regulation, interactions with other businesses, customers and so on). The law allows its separation out from this complex set of interdependencies. Recognised money makes profit ‘real’ and ‘storable’. As Ruskin suggests profit is not to be confused with wealth. Profit can also be a source of ‘illth.’

Question: Is there any form of what we call capitalism which does not require money?

Assertion based on the primary guiding hypothesis: Taking, and increasing, Profit is the fundamental underlying (and moral) principle of capitalism. The more intense the power of capitalists the more likely this is the case. Profit is needed for survival as a business.

Proposition 1: In capitalism, high profit (within the law) is considered good and less profit bad.

Proposition 2: The more costs of production can be lowered to increase profit the better.

Therefore: Workers are a drain on profit, and should be either eliminated or underpaid. The same may be true of suppliers. Likewise, pollution, poisoning, and unremediated ecological destruction are useful as they cut costs, and so are dismissed in capitalism as externalities. They are said to be external to the economic system, having no effect. Essentially externalities are the ways in which the capitalist class can freeload costs and suffering onto others to increase profit. One significant problem is that the planet and its ecologies are not external to survival and are finite. They have limits, and freeloading will eventually catch up with everyone. We have known this in theory since at least 1966, although the realisation seems to have been put to one side.

Question: Is capitalism more or less driven to destroy the ecology which supports it, through the drive to ‘externalise’ and ignore ecological damage, in order to increase profit?

The desire to continually increase profit, leads to growth (enlargement rather than development) being the mark of a successful business. Enlargement is not necessarily sustainable in all conditions for everyone – hence most businesses collapse, and only the most profitable (or ruthless) survive and eat everything else. To repeat, this increases the necessary power of profit, it keeps you in business, and that is more important than valuing ecology in this system.

Freeloading

Definition: Freeloading involves letting other people, or other companies, do the socially useful survival work (like not emitting pollution, feeding the workers), and avoiding the costs of that work and therefore increasing profits at the expense of those who don’t freeload.

Empirical generalisation: Corporate freeloading is often hidden by the information system, while worker freeloading is exposed.

Hypothesis: Freeloading is moral in capitalism, if it makes a profit and its done by the corporate class against the non-corporate class.

Question: Is there anything in capitalism, which prevents individualists from refusing to participate in the general costs of survival, by hiding their freeloading on those who do absorb those costs, then continuing with making the damage, making more profit and surviving when the other ‘responsible companies’ collapse?

If nothing opposes this, then all companies will be inclined towards freeloading for the sake of their survival.

Prices

It may be important to distinguish price from value, although they are often confused. Fresh air may be valuable but it may not yet be priced. Love may be valuable, but it may not always be priced. Price is the amount of money something can be charged for on the market.

It may be important not to assume that the value of anything is solely (and objectively) its price.

Proposition 1: In capitalism, high profit (within the law) is considered good and less profit bad.

Proposition 3: The higher the prices that can be charged to the customer, the greater the profit.

Therefore: Prices should continually increase until the products cannot be sold at a profit or potential customers move to products produced by other people with roughly the same function. This process is generally called competition.

Competition involves information. People have to know they can get the cheaper useful product for competition to work. Complete information is impossible, but fraud is possible. that is the cheaper product may not work.

Transactions with new businesses are risky. Companies are not providing exactly the same products. Cheaper may be cheaper, but they may not be good, the new company might break down, and leave you without a supplier, and so on.

Question: Do businesses generally regard competition as bad, and head towards monopoly, cooperation and/or suppression of information?

Empirical observation: Companies can, and do, create the illusion of competition by manufacturing different brands of ‘stuff’ at different prices.

Question: Is attempting to confuse the market (or the customer) a standard or vital tactic for business to help increase the price they can charge?

Historical Digression: Trajectories of Capital accumulation

Question: If there is no legal force which demands peace recognised, what crimes will be perpetuated in the name of profit?

Empirical observations: the East India Company. The Opium Wars. Tobacco companies.

Accumulation of capital, or the profit, to begin capitalism, has been historically brought about through violence.
Feudalism, conquest, colonialism, theft of treasure and resources (gold and silver from the Americas and India), ‘enclosures’ or dispossession of people from land, stripping people of their right to self sufficiency, slavery, cheap (but crippling or deadly) working conditions, downplaying the value of labour, reducing obligation and care to ‘money,’ together with repression of rebellion until this set up became taken as natural because people had never experienced anything else.

Capitalist colonialism has always attempted to eliminate non-capitalist ways of organising economic behaviour. Sometimes this destruction was deliberate (imposing wage labour, dispossessing people from land, or otherwise promoting the need for currency through taxes etc.) and sometimes it may have been accidental through the inability to understand that non-capitalist economic systems existed or had any virtues (ie through the capitalist shaping of the information system, and through the fact that not all these economies valued a constant increase in monetary profit at all costs). We might call this “The Natives are lazy” syndrome, found in Australia under Terra Nullius, which claimed that aboriginal people ignored the land and did not exist, which ‘therefore’ justifies taking the land, the destruction of non-capitalist people, ecologies and economies. Sometimes the destruction was by spread of disease, deliberate or otherwise.

Observation: The history of capitalist accumulation seems to be brought about by elites co-operating with each other and their ‘workers’, and doing far more damage than they could have done alone. There is no reason to assume that they should have become ‘individual’ operators after that success. (See ‘competition and co-operation’ below.)

Differences in capital accumulation are not just the result of virtue, or productive talent as claimed by most pro-capitalist economic theory, but of violence and theft.

Question: Does this situation continue today?

Empirical observation: We are still told the poor (‘Natives’) are lazy, untalented or cursed by God to be blamed for their own poverty, and that the ‘undeveloped world’ needs more capitalists, more enclosure of property, to buy more of our products (to make money for us), the help of international corporations and minerals being taken for very little in the way of payment. In America and Australia ‘our’ economic and state institutions still keep most of the land which was violently stolen.

The use of day to day violence was partially mitigated by the rise of worker organisation, the workers standing up to the violence, the rise of independence movements, the fear of revolution, and the general failure of fascism to stabilise capitalist power. Since the late 1980s this fear has diminished and workers’ organisation has declined. We may be heading into another round of ‘stabilising’ fascism.

Another factor in the lessening of repression was the realisation that workers with higher wages can form a viable market for products and hence higher wages can benefit all through increasing the scope of the market. However such a realisation was likely to fall, because of the temptation for individual capitalists to freeload on others, and to go back to undermining, deskilling and underpaying labour to increase their own profit and power in the market, at the cost of those who treated workers better to generate a good market.

Proposition: Human Competition and Co-operation

Empirical observation: People are both cooperative and competitive
a) They tend to cooperate within ingroups, or with people the person identifies with
b) They tend to compete with outgroups, or with people the person does not identify with

Empirical observation: People can do things through co-operation they could not do alone. They can often get more done through co-operation than by working alone.

Empirical observation: Competition often occurs through co-operation, as when group co-operates to ‘defeat’ another group or to increase their power and capacity.

Corporations are examples of human cooperation and competition (cooperation and competition both within and without).

Remark: Human beings don’t have to compete for money. Humans can compete for respect, acknowledgment, fame, power, obligation and so on – all of which can be beneficial to community life.

Many economic systems rely on ‘generosity’ of gifting, to build relationships and obligations. This can mix both competition and co-operation.

To ignore one of these factors in favour of the other, is to suppress awareness of human complexity.

Observation: Nothing that can be called an economy does not involve both competition and co-operation.

The limits of co-operation and competition are usually set by social convention and who is defined as ingroup and who is defined as outgroup.

Rejecting ideas of co-operation and non-monetary returns, means that people ignore vital parts of society, such as the building and design of the internet (free exchange in return for status and acknowledgement), long lasting commons and shared land, and even obvious fact, that most parents don’t kill, or seriously harm, their babies.

Propositions on power and economic action

Definition: Power is the capacity for both a) free action and b) control, or influence, over others’ actions.

Empirical observation (and axiom) 1: Unequal wealth = unequal power.

In a capitalist state, and perhaps in all States, wealth buys access to political processes, free action and control over others through organised violence or law. Wealth is a basis for power for free action and control over others.

Unequal wealth and power generates unequal liberty and unequal capacity for action.

Empirical observation (and axiom) 2: Capitalism generates massively unequal wealth (Usually justified by Praxeologists on the grounds of unequal talents.)

Therefore: capitalism generates massively unequal power, liberty and capacity to act.

Suggestion: Capitalist politics enforces this unequal liberty in order to preserve its system stability, to preserve the hierarchy of power and wealth of those who have it, and to engage in ‘capitalist pillage for capital accumulation’. See above and next section.

Hypothesis: The fundamental relationship in capitalism, is between Boss and worker. The worker must, in general, do as they are told so as to maximise profit. There is no necessary relationship between boss and worker apart from obedience and money. Capitalism is about obedience, and dependence on the employer, not about liberty.

Suggestion: Maximization of profit requires that groups who might want to share in the profit they helped produce, or who might increase costs through rendering pollution a non-external cost, have to be suppressed as best as possible, without leading to their revolt. This suppression may require the State, or co-operation between businesses.

Proposition: ‘Crony Capitalism’ and ‘State Capture’ are inevitable

The hyper wealthy will tend to identify with each other against ordinary people (see the proposition ‘Human Competition and Co-operation’, above). Hence they will co-operate against ordinary people and the ‘threat’ posed by ordinary people.

This is reinforced by the ‘need’ to diminish wages and working conditions and externalise costs onto others, so as to increase profit.

Statement: Employers, large corporations and wealth elites have more power than ordinary workers

Definition: Crony capitalism is co-operation between corporations or wealth elites so as to increase wealth, profit and power. This may make use of a political class, primarily a political class which identifies with the wealth elites, or is easily bought (because profit is the main social virtue).

Crony Capitalism is normal capitalism based in ‘human nature’ and ingroup outgroup behaviour. It’s easy and it is effective in increasing profit, and hence reinforced by the normal processes of profit seeking.

That corporate elites co-operate against outgroups, does not mean they will be unified with no internal competition, but that competition maybe suppressed in their cooperation against the “common enemy”.

Proposition 1: The corporate wealth elite has more power and capacity than the ‘lower classes’

Proposition 2: The elite will co-operate against the lower classes.

Proposition 3: The corporate wealth elite will pass this wealth and the advantage it brings to their children.

Therefore: workers are more limited in their response to opportunities. Competition between workers will always drive down wages unless there are workers with skills which are in short supply, and there is no equality or freedom of opportunity in capitalism for most people.

Comment: This competition between workers to earn enough to survive seems to be encouraged by pro-capitalist politicians to force down wages, and this perhaps unintentionally lowers the capacity of the mass market to purchase products and services.

What counts as belonging to who, is an act of negotiation and power. The more powerful the workers the more ‘belongs’ to them, the more powerful bosses and business, the more belongs to them.

Proposition: Collaboration between wealth elites will also occur in the wider political sphere.

Therefore: The hyper wealthy and the corporate sector will attempt to take over or capture the State, or set up a plutocratic state, to prevent the lower classes from acting against them. This State will regulate and structure the market in their favour in order to benefit their profit; it will allow more freeloading on others; it will attempt to prevent people demanding action which is socially beneficial but which could reduce profit, and it will police challenges to this order. This is personally beneficial for the politicians in capitalist ideology.

As a result, there is no possible capitalism in which the State does not interfere with the market, especially in an attempt to support the capitalist market. Hence the State is part of the market and cannot be blamed for the failure of the market alone – the behaviour of the State is part of the market in action.

Assertion: the form of State present in a capitalist society, will tend to support the wealth elites, support the location of profit with the wealth elites, while cutting back any support for workers, cutting back attempts to end freeloading by the wealth elites and demonising those who might agitate against the wealth elites in ways which could be effective.

Siding with the elites

Proposition 1: Living the worker life is insecure and low status.

Proposition 2: People tend to avoid positions of insecurity and low status if they can.

Therefore: People can hope to increase their wealth and apparent power, by siding with employers or corporations forming the managerial class which acts as a distractor and buffer between workers and wealth elites. However, low level managers (in particular) are still workers and discardable, whatever they might hope to the contrary.

Observation: Capitalism has to attract support to survive outside of perpetual warfare.

Power in the ‘Marketplace’

Following on from the earlier propositions.

Proposition 1: Wealthier players may have less of an immediate need for a transaction – they have the ‘capital’ to prolong survival, at a loss.

Proposition 2: Poorer players may have an immediate need for the transaction to survive and may have to agree to ensure that survival. They cannot survive the loss.

Therefore: All actors in the market do NOT have equal power in the market, and that transactions are not equitable, and are not equally satisfying.

Empirical observation: People who are not self supporting, and who need wages to survive may have to accept jobs at low wages, as low wages are better than non. Low wages may provide food, delay being thrown out of accommodation and so on. The employer does not have to care that much, as there will probably be someone else out of their luck and willing to accept the wages.

Employers can also co-operate to lower wages. cf Crony capitalism. They can also oppose livable minimum wages becoming law, because they are a recognised power block.

Likewise, in certain circumstances, a supplier can be desperate for a contract, and have to take a low offer because there is nothing else around, and the purchaser can hang in. In other circumstances the purchaser may be in the vulnerable position.

Mutual satisfaction in capitalist exchange is not guaranteed.

It is almost sanctified to rip off, or cheat, the other, unless it affects profit and repeat sales. Caveat emptor (buyer beware) is the principle.

Proposition 3: Small businesses can rarely undercut big businesses.

Proposition 4: Big business can often undercut the prices of small business for long enough to break the small business. They can then put up the prices.

Therefore: Big business can usually drive out small business, or non-established businesses, if the transactions are based solely on prices.

Therefore: An established oligopoly can generate conditions in which it is almost impossible for competitors to break into a market, even if the prices they charge are vastly inflated – especially given that the competitors usually have to consume capital to enter into the market in the first place, and are therefore likely to have higher costs to recover.

The risks of interacting with new players for old customers, is also a factor which supports the oligopoly.

Information system

All social systems have information systems.

The information a person has access too will influence the way that they perceive the world and its workings. Hence, control of the information system, or parts of the system is important politically, as it brings things to notice.

Proposition 1: In a capitalist society, the main media organisations and sources of information will be owned and controlled by the wealth elites.

Proposition 2: Nearly all contemporary people will gain information about the wider world, politics, ecology and economy, from media rather than from personal experience. The world is too big to know it all personally.

Therefore: the media will, in general, defend the wealth elites, their views, and their system of wealth to help preserve the system.

Note: this does not mean every player will automatically see the rightness of a particular defense, but defense and justification will be aimed at.

Proposition 3: As the media are corporate, the main purpose of the media is to make profit.

Proposition 4: the main source of media profit is corporate advertising.

Therefore: They will attempt to not alienate their advertisers or their audience. The primary aim of media is to attract audiences for advertisers’ advertisements, not to promote accurate statements.

Proposition 5: A secondary aim will be to discredit other media to stop the audience going elsewhere, and to keep advertising revenue high. This also does not contribute to accuracy.

Proposition 6: The function of advertising is to sell products, associate engaging fantasies with particular products, get people excited about new products or imagined products, attack existing competing products, hide cheaper competing products, increase profits, justify or naturalise capitalism, or protect a company from challenge, not to promote accuracy or accurate understanding. The Corporate Media is necessarily saturated in hype, falsehood and exaggeration from the beginning. And then there is the need to hide freeloading, or create ‘greenwash’, etc, to keep markets open against protest.

Reminder: It has already been suggested that false information about markets and confusion about prices of products can be useful to competitors on the market. If people do not know what they are buying, or how much they are paying, that can also be useful to competition. (Scot Adams: ‘Confusopoly’).

Proposition 6: People depend on the knowledge system, to learn about the world, to respond to the world and to situate themselves in the world.

Proposition 7: Confused people are more easily led to avoid problems and into further destruction by those who think they benefit from ignoring the problems.

Therefore: An information system which is completely messy will allow problems to accumulate or even encourage problems and destruction to continue, so as to preserve the power and wealth structures.

Empirical observation: the information system may distract people away from important information, in order to help the system pretend it is coping, and to prevent added challenges to the system. For example, controversy about the science of climate change is promoted beyond it statistical significance, while general agreement is not. Celebrity life is more important than climate change. This helps the system keep going (for a while). Likewise, non-capitalist economics is ignored, while the virtue of ‘free markets’ is promoted. Information necessary for survival may be hidden or attacked by the information system if it is seen as presenting an unacceptable challenge to capitalism.

Question: Are these kinds of information disruption systems present within the corporation itself?

Hypothesis: In general (but not always) people at the local level have a better knowledge of what is going on locally than people distant from them.

Therefore: Locals may tend to lie to the centre, or distant power, to allow them to act appropriately.

Remark: Pro-corporate analysts recognise that distant government officials can be out of touch, but generally do not recognise that corporate officials can also be out of touch for the same reasons.

Hypothesis: A punitive hierarchy will establish a system in which people below tell people above, what those below think those above want to hear, so as to protect themselves. The people above will only tell people below, what they think those below need to hear or know, and will lie to protect themselves, or to prevent resistance. Status depends on knowledge, so few people give knowledge away.

When you buy information from a supplier to try and obtain accuracy, the buyer still faces the problem that the supplier is likely to try and keep the purchasing relationship going by providing you with what you might want to hear, rather than what is accurate, and their sources might do likewise. Think tanks are often quite overt about providing their customers with what they want.

Suggestion: to this market based information disruption, we can add the effect of the political propaganda also spread through the information system, in which various forces attempt to make the corporate sector or political parties and politicians look good or bad and provide them with the information that will change their behaviour in desired ways.

The capitalist information system is riddled with rhetoric, hype, lies, distraction, fantasy and confusion, not as an add-on or an easily correctable mistake, but as part of its normal operation.

The normal processes of the market and of customer purchase appear to disrupt the intelligence and information needed to make decisions in the market.

Eventually the whole system will collapse when reality does not match with what the people come to believe should be the case, and with how they should act. This is suicidal. The information system becomes a non-functional ecology, in human terms.

Hypothesis: this cultivation of confusion and falsity to gain and keep market advantage is one reason why economic collapses, market breakdowns and the like, always take almost all players in the market by surprise.

It has been said that the market is the ultimate and only information processor about the world. If a business gets something wrong and does not learn, it goes bust. However, markets are a subset of ecological interactions. It is the ecology which has the final say. And if the ecology collapses, it does not matter how successfully the market has operated in its own terms, it will likely go down with the ecology.

Question: Despite all this information disruption, can wealth can buy better information and therefore buy advantage on the marketplace?

Non-profit ways???

Markets, Relationships and Trust (Morals?)

Anthropological observation: Most systems of exchange are about building relationships (systems of obligation, trust, gifting, connection and status) between people to further co-operation. Humans are relational animals before economic animals, and long before becoming ‘monetary transaction machines’.

Observation: Relationality still exists when price is not the only determinate of behaviour.

People can build relationships with small companies, with corner stores, with favourite stores, with their children etc. that are more than monetary exchanges.

Relationship building seems to be one reason why ingroup and outgroup bonds are so easy to form.

Companies have often tried to take advantage of relationality, and build up a relationship between customers and products, as if it were two way, when its primarily entrapping the customer..

By trying to make price and advantage the prime mode of exchange, in which the payment of money terminates the transaction, capitalist ideology breaks down human relationships to other humans and to ecology (natural world).

This is deeply anti-human, destructive of awareness and preventative of spontaneous beneficial non-capitalist co-operation from emerging.

Building connections and co-operation within and outside capitalism, and outside its self-generated problems, is likely a step towards building a survivable and less catastrophic world.

Commons

Emphasising co-operation without pretending people are never competitive or self-interested. Common land, common tools, common property exists throughout the world. I’ve argued that common energy may be the best way out of the energy crisis, as it puts responsibility for energy and pollution squarely on those that use it. It responds to local conditions, builds functional local democracy and participation, and has to guard against freeloaders or the project will fail.

It looks as though successful commons require locally agreed upon rules of use, and sanctions for violation of those rules.

Uncertainty and experimental politics

Assertion 1: Uncertainty is fundamental in complex systems. No matter how good the information system we will probably never have certainty. Few precise predictions can be guaranteed. The system is too complicated to map completely. No information system carries completely accurate statements.

Assertion 2: Uncertainty is not fixed by imposing the certainty that free markets deal with uncertainty and always produce the best possible result. Free markets are entangled in relations of power and deceit from the beginning. The ecology is the only real marker of correctness, and its response may be violent.

Assertion 3: Due to uncertainty, most policies, ethical positions and proposed solutions are experimental, and have to be treated as experimental. We don’t, and will not, know the full result of a set of actions until after we have acted, and we need to refine actions based on the result and the feedback it gives – and recognise this may change.

Assertion 4: We do now know, that current day neoliberal capitalism does not appear able to solve the problems it generates, and largely sweeps them under the table. It’s day needs to be over, but we may not know what to replace it with. This adds to uncertainty and the need for experiment.

Returning to systems

Observation: People live within systems. They do not live as isolated individuals. They live as interdependent people. This is fundamental. Without being able to be dependent on other humans all infants would die.

Observation: People live in the interaction of numerous systems of human and non human systems.

Observation: humans live in and create complex systems…. this has consequences. (I’ve dealt with this elsewhere, but uncertainty is primary).

Hypothesis: Attempting to impose any single system on all the others can easily lead to disaster.

Imposing ‘individualistic’ capitalism, or the ideology of individualistic capitalism on everything, is causing disaster.

It does not even produce an adequate model of what happens in real capitalism or real economies.

Methodological individualism is a distortion of reality, which serves an ideological purpose alone, to help maintain the power of capitalism and to prevent co-operative innovation and moves outside of the destructive economic system.

This set of reconceptualisations, which is not claiming to be original, is important because

  • humans act in situations/contexts
  • with particular understandings.
  • Understandings are part of the information system

Humans are hampered and encouraged by the contexts they live within.

If they have fundamentally incorrect understandings of the situation then the hampering to action from that situation will win out.

For example, it is easily possible to allege that most politics allowed to participate in capitalism are politics which help the reproduction of capitalism. There may be disagreements about how this is done, ranging from pure fascist theocratic authority, to pure libertarianism, to having working social services, but the main idea is to keep capitalism and its ‘class system’ going, even if we add another class to it to help that happen.

However we could imagine a politics in which the main concern was regenerating relatively harmonious human ecological relations, so that we did came to not deplete the earth, destroy other species, or poison the world. A politics which realised that without a working set of ecologies which include us, we cannot survive let alone survive well. This would be a politics and economics which would either displace or transform capitalist destruction, and make a new more human economics. It would at the least challenge the type of assumptions that we make about the world within capitalism.

The understandings proposed here can be trivial or wrong, but I assert they are better for dealing with our situations than the ones which have informational dominance and which seem to be helping towards continuing and worsening the multiple crises we face.

….

Attempt to summarise this on the next page.

Dealing with complexity 1: Political Risk Analysis

July 3, 2022

I’ve been reading John C. Hulsman’s To Dare More Boldly: The audacious story of Political Risk (Princeton University Press 2018). I have no idea whether this is considered a good book or not but its interesting. He gives ten principles for political risk and, in so doing, points towards principles useful for dealing with complexity, as what could more complex than political behaviour between nations?

Today I’m going to consider the first principle, and show that while its good, he actually ignores it in favour of ‘received knowledge,’ ‘individualism,’ and apparently ‘meaningless words’….

“We are the risk”

The point here is that we tend to ignore our own possible failings, or the failings of the systems we like. We look elsewhere for the problems.

For example, the author attended a Council of Foreign Relations meeting, and he suggested that American “political sclerosis” (whatever that is) was one of the ten most significant political risks in the world today, he was told it was the rest of the world that was the problem, not the USA, which could be left out of the problem sphere (p.45).

This is pretty clearly not a useful form of analysis, as the USA interacts with everyone else (complexity) and therefore has an effect on the result – no matter how ‘healthy’ it might be.

Another way of looking at his point, is that civilisations which collapse under external attack first suffer an internal collapse that makes them vulnerable.

He suggests that 18th Century Historian Edward Gibbon makes this kind of analysis in his Decline and fall of the Roman Empire. Or as he summarises:

Rome fell not primarily because of outside pressures but rather owing to an internal and gradual loss of civic virtue amongst its citizens

(P.43)

Now as an anthropologist I’m going to state that a decline in civic virtue, is not an explanation of anything. It is a statement of what might have happened. We may also need to ask, what caused this decline? What made the decline seem reasonable to people? What are the structures and processes involved? What are the complex interactions that lead to collapse, or slow phase out. I doubt that many individual people woke up one morning and said to themselves: “that’s it for civic virtue” and then Rome fell, or as Hulsman puts it

society atrophied as a result of personal failings that accumulated over time

(p 48).

If its personal failings there is nothing we can do, except blame others. However, if its shared personal failings or social dynamics then we can look around to find common causes and remedy them. Pretty obviously Rome in the East continued on for quite a long time (falling in 1453) so its a bit foolish to just focus on Rome in the West (476, almost a thousand years earlier), and we need to know what civic virtue (or personal failings) even are, and how they changed – not just assume they are immediately obvious, and obviously important because we like the idea and maybe think we are virtuous and have them.

Gibbon may have thought that Roman civic virtue was a matter of militarism.

The victorious legions, who, in distant wars, acquired the vices of strangers and mercenaries, first oppressed the freedom of the republic, and afterwards violated the majesty of the purple. The emperors, anxious for their personal safety and the public peace, were reduced to the base expedient of corrupting the discipline which rendered them alike formidable to their sovereign and to the enemy; the vigour of the military government was relaxed, and finally dissolved, by the partial institutions of Constantine

Christians, while violent, did not support the military as such, and hence helped the downfall. However, Gibbon begins this passage by making an added point.

Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and, as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight.

The Roman Empire became too big, and to clumsy to control, and to respond properly to challenges, as well as Romans becoming less interested in constant military ventures which consumed even more energy away from making it work. It is doubtful that even a modern empire with internet, jets and satellite can expand forever and hold its conquered land, as its context of supply chains, identity failure and local resistances grow more and more complicated.

However the point is clear, as Hulsman says, Rome may have eventually fallen because of a failure “to recognise and combat [the] home grown problems” of its Empire. This is a form of societal suicide which he calls ‘decadence’ (nothing like having a word that already tells you something is bad to help your judgements, and think you mean something) which he defines as “a society’s loss of ability to deal with its problem, coupled over time with a long-term abdication of responsibility for them” (p44).

My personal guess is that a lot of Romans probably tried to take responsibility for the problems, by blaming other people for them – despised classes like passive people, lazy workers, prostitutes, gays, people reveling in Luxury, nouveau riche, freed-slaves, Christians and later pagan philosophers etc. and they probably felt quite proud of facing up to the faults of others and berating them (Juvenal for example). Our vocabulary for condemning decadence (not being the same as we once were) very likely comes from Romans condemning each other.

Anyway, the point is that the Empire grew to such a size that it had to use barbarians to make its legions – which might have lengthened the decline – after all it gave the Barbarians something to fight for that wasn’t the fall of Rome, and made them invested in the Empire itself to an extent – they could become Roman citizens. They lived dangerous lives and got paid for it.

However, it is possible that ordinary citizens no longer saw the Empire as a particular advantage for them and lost interest…. It solved problems which did not seem that relevant to them, or it created problems for them – such as finding work, finding land, not having political representation, being unable to make social change and so on. Sport, public murder, and religious dispute, was all they might have had left to make a meaning for life

Hulsman further discusses the dangers of the Praetorian guard who were meant to defend the Emperor and family, but became a force in themselves from quite early on. They slaughtered emperors they did not like, appointed new people to the throne, and demanded higher and higher payments for loyalty – because they were necessary. Obviously not a mechanism for stable government, but it did not immediately cause the collapse of Rome, as the Emperor Constantine disbanded them and destroyed their barracks when he invaded Rome in AD 312.

So the main take away is the problems may issue from us, from the way we approach the problems, or the way we organise ourselves – but it is not simple.

The ‘Perfidious French’

Rather oddly, instead of moving to look at his own society from this point of view, he moves to condemn the modern day French. Let’s charitably assume that this is because he thinks Europe is part of the US, or he will talk about the US later on….

He discusses the events of August 2003 when Paris suffered a heat wave and large numbers of people died. To quote wiki:

In France, 14,802 heat-related deaths (mostly among the elderly) occurred during the heat wave, according to the French National Institute of Health.[6][7] France does not commonly have very hot summers, particularly in the northern areas,[8] but eight consecutive days with temperatures of more than 40 °C (104 °F) were recorded in Auxerre, Yonne in early August 2003.[9]

Wiki 2003 European heat wave.

Houses in France are not generally built for heat waves. Hulsman alleges that the French government, and doctors (?), did nothing. The relevant ministers were on holiday and reluctant to come back to the heat. Many people who died where healthy people living alone, and the government blamed French Families for not taking care or elderly relatives.

Hulsman blames:

  • The sanctity of French summer Holidays (Lazy selfish people)
  • Worship of an unsustainable mode of living (not ecologically unsustainable, but unsustainable in terms of capitalist economics.)
  • Europe “rotting from within” with decadence.
  • People avoiding responsibility for their kin.
  • Growing older populations
  • People wanting too much from work.

His solution, is pretty obvious for a North American. Capitalism.

Lets not bother to look at whether the Capitalist system still works or not. Let’s not bother to ask whether something we like, or participate within, is a problem or not. Capitalism may be great for getting development going, but after its reached a point in which a very few of the people own nearly everything, and have bought the political system and taken it away from the people, is it still the solver of all problems? Or is it a generator of at least some significant problems? Is economic growth a solution or a problem? Not asking these questions is like avoiding American “political sclerosis.” It is violating the principle that “We are the risk”.

Let us assume he is correct and that capitalist markets in Europe are not allocating most people enough money for what they want to do, and that it will all crash down. Then how are you going to sell a project which means – YOU (other people) work harder, take home less pay, get less benefits, retire later, pay increased personal taxes if middle class, have pensions privatised and subject to risk and rip off, in return for an uncertain promise that allowing other people to earn more in half an hour than you do all year round, might fix the problem or might not. This sounds like a standard neoliberal solution in which austerity is for the poor and the middle classes. Indeed Austerity seems to be both the solution and the result.

The wider questions around Are we the problem?

Capitalism as a problem?

He may be correct that Euro-capitalism is dying, but is the only solution US style capitalism, which could also be said to be dying? Or could it be something new?

Do we need to abandon capitalism? I’m not suggesting we always do (although there are obvious problems with neoliberal capitalism and its theories which I’ve discussed elsewhere), but it needs to be examined if the Anglo-sphere is not just to rest on its claimed laurels.

Are people uninvolved because neoliberalism encourages a “selfish” individual focus?

Are people uninvolved because capitalism encourages obedience to bosses, and irrational managerial restructures in which no one affected is ever listened to?

Are people uninvolved, because all spiritual and psychological questions become reduced to purchases?

Are people uninvolved because capitalism reduces tradition to obstruction?

Are people uninvolved because capitalism:

has left remaining no other nexus between man and man than naked self-interest, than callous “cash payment”. It has drowned the most heavenly ecstasies of religious fervour, of chivalrous enthusiasm, of philistine sentimentalism, in the icy water of egotistical calculation. It has resolved personal worth into exchange value, and in place of the numberless indefeasible chartered freedoms, has set up that single, unconscionable freedom – Free Trade. 

Marx and Engels Communist Manifesto

I don’t know, but they, and other questions, are questions worth asking.

We could also note that pro-corporate media is very keen on the idea that people who die of Covid, die with Covid, have existing conditions, or are old and useless and would die anyway. We repeatedly here how old people are a cost not a benefit, and so it is perhaps no wonder that people ignore the elderly and leave them to die. That they are solely a cost and burden, as they are retired, might even be an implicit message in his own arguments…

If people cannot labor, in relevant fields, or have no money to invest, do they have any value in capitalism?

That a form of capitalism worked well in the 60s to 70s in the Anglo-sphere to bring prosperity, social mobility, art, and education to all is not a guarantee that neoliberal capitalism will do the same, work now, or could not be modified with consultation. We could look at it as a potential cause of problems. Or do we have to protect capitalism from being considered even briefly a problem generator? There is plenty of degrowth economics around.

While it is cynical, we might find the answer to the question of why are these questions completely avoided in a chapter on not avoiding questions which implicate ourselves by reading the opening chapter and finding out that most political risk analysis is sold to corporations. Telling them capitalism might need to be changed is possibly limiting the market.

Climate

Lets look in a wider sphere, dragging in events or contexts he seems to be ignoring. Events only have meaning in context.

Can you publish a book on real political risk in 2018 without mentioning climate change and ecological decay. I don’t know yet, but I suspect you can. There is no entry for these problems in the index.

People did not normally die in late summer in Paris from heat. The contexts of events are changing. Climate change was already here in 2003. However at that time, probably no government or corporation on Earth recognised climate change as a current problem. There was little to no preparation for it. It was in the distant future, despite the warnings. So it is not surprising that few people were prepared. This was unusual. Nights in Paris are usually cool, but this time they were not. Houses did not cool over night.

Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. 

Marc Poumadère, Claire Mays, Sophie Le Mer, Russell Blong. The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now. Risk Analysis 25(6): 1327-1687

Let us remember the Australian Governments some 15 years later and their complete lack of interest in climate change, and complete lack of preparedness for the “black summer” bushfires and the huge floods a few years later. It is much harder to excuse these pro-market people for their failure, than the French; especially after all the warnings and the wild events around the world. However, people like Bjorn Lomborg are still trying to argue that heat is not as deadly as a cold people will be unlikely to suffer in France; indeed that heat saves lives [1], [2].

Capitalism, and pro-capitalist governments, have not been good at dealing with climate change, although they have been good at denying climate change and resisting social change to deal with it. Given this, it seems even more odd to argue that capitalism is a solution for either the problems of climate change in France, or the long-term problems of the French Economy.

Conclusions

It is worthwhile looking at the failures of our own system, or the systems we like, and not to protect them from questions, when we are considering the future. “We, and what we like, are (part of) the risk“.

It is also useful to look at the contexts of those system we live within, such as the global ecology and the global climate. These are changing and will challenge established systems which grew up within different systems and developed different expectations as a result.

Something which once worked ‘well-enough,’ may now no longer work, because it operates differently dues to internal changes, or the context it is working within is now different.

In terms of climate politics we might need to look at how our attempts to initiate lower emissions, renewable energy, ecological care and so on, are maladaptive, remembering again that: “We, and what we like, are part of the risk to our own success and to our own future.”

Social Roots of Stupidity II

July 3, 2022

Misinformation grows quickly

It is easier and much quicker to lie, or to invent something that sounds right, or that people might want to believe, than it is to research a topic thoroughly, and check that everything you have read is correct and that your understanding (of everything involved) is accurate.

  • Note a source does not have to be deliberately lying. There is no difference between a lie and a mistake as far as misinformation is concerned.

If you release a lot of lies, and are like Trump and get a lot of coverage, then you can see which ones are taken up, and follow them up with more reinforcing fake news to fill in the gaps and help convince people that misinformation is real.

Misinformation evolves. That which appeals to its audience, will spread the furthest. Random misinformation allows the audience to choose what to spread on its own.

Social bias as a filter

In information society, there is always way too much information out there to evaluate it properly or test it for truth. Testing information takes time and dedication. Consequently, the main ways of judging information is:

  • By whether it harmonises with information, attitudes, cosmologies, religions or morals, you already have, or with actions you already take or would like to take.
  • By whether it is promoted by people who you consider to be be members of your group, or having a similar identity.
  • By whether it is promoted by high status people who you consider to be members of your group.
  • By whether it makes your groups virtuous and outgroups vicious, immoral or evil.
  • By whether it will cost you social status to accept or refuse to accept the information.
  • By how essential the information becomes for acting within your main groups.
  • By whether it promotes emotions that are righteous in your group.
  • If its promoted by people you dislike, and distrust, who contradict those in your groups, then its probably fake.

Information will be judged socially. Acceptance is geared towards survival in particular groups, with particular kind of identities, and maintaining hostility towards other groups.

The more you think your ‘opponents’ are lying, the more excuse there is to lie yourself.

The less identity groups are polarised, or separated, and the more they are included in a wider category (such as ‘fellow Australians’), then the more likely that information can be evaluated with accuracy.

Information as programming

Information tells people what is important in life and the world, what they should look for, and what counts as data. This is sometimes known as the “theory dependence of observation”.

Another way of describing this is via the slogans: “Perception involves interpretation,” “We put meaning onto the world.” “Our thoughts shape the world we perceive”.

This process is not an completely unbreakable loop, but it can be hard to break.

Humans tend to find what they are looking for, so if you program people with the right misinformation, then they will soon find their own misinformation and see connections that are not there. If those connections get taken up, then even more people will fall into the trap. Especially if agreeing with information becomes tied in with their membership of a group and of an identity – and people start indicating that the person is not a proper ‘X’ because they don’t accept the ‘truth’.

As suggested earlier, if authoritative people in the group start repeating the misinformation as true, and it points to the evils of an outgroup, then it is even more likely to be believed, and never to be challenged. The consequences are too high. More misinformation will be produced in order to make the misinformation, and the world it reveals, more believable.

Having their attention directed away from reality, and into confirmation bias and group loyalty, normally increases a person’s incapacity to interact with the world as that world is. Misinformation can increase stupidity, lower resilience, and lead to a bad end, as people ignore real problems and complexities in favour of imaginary problems and simplicities or complications.

Conclusion

Misinformation thrives because accuracy is hard, requires checking and is limited. Misinformation does not have to be checked to see if its accurate, and it can go anywhere that people take it. If information is tied into a group identity, that it becomes even harder to stop, because stopping it challenges group and individual identity and can be seen as an imposition on a person’s liberty.

Social roots of stupidity

June 24, 2022

I’ve said this before but why not again?

In the 80s right wing parties, in much of the Western World, embraced neoliberalism. The official excuse was the oil shock and stagflation (inflation and stagnation together). The Keynesian compromise did not seem to be working.

Neoliberalism is essentially the public doctrine that the free market liberates creativity and solves all possible problems the best possible way, and brings liberty, as the government “gets out of your life”

The secret doctrine of neoliberalism, which is pretty open, is that the market rules, and makes the rules, and government should aim to protect successful players in the market, as they are the best possible people. Hierarchy in the market is god-given. and market leaders are chosen by the market for their virtues. Even monopoly in a market is competitive according to ‘Contestability theory’.

This policy aims to give more power and wealth to the established wealth elites, and takes money, power and working conditions from the poorer and the middle classes. As a result, the new Wealth Elites are amazingly more wealthy and powerful than even the ordinary wealthy.

You cannot honestly sell these policies to the electorate in a democracy.

  • So you need culture wars about nothing.
  • You need to encourage anger and hysteria in the populace to inhibit calm dispassion
  • You need to encourage fear of other news sources
  • You need to make scapegoats who can be used to explain ordinary peoples’ losses, and who cannot respond in kind.

Democracy and a well informed electorate is anathema – because informed, powerful people would take back their power and ‘interfere in the market’ – perhaps to protect their local environment, stop their children being poisoned or shot, get better working conditions or higher pay etc. They might act to lower profit or reduce the wealth hierarchy – and this is bad, this is what neoliberalism protects corporations from, and so it endlessly promotes helplessness, distraction and displacement.

When neoliberalism clashes with the best knowledge we have, then the best knowledge we have has to be destroyed. People have to be told that by not believing this best knowledge they are being independent thinkers, and standing up to the left wing establishment who are supposedly oppressing them by promoting this knowledge.

The only real knowledge that can be allowed are worldviews that support neoliberalism.

So a significant number of people start believing whatever is reassuring: Climate change is not real. Climate change is not a problem. Covid restrictions are tyranny. Covid is a mild flu that rarely hurts anyone. Covid is a global medical conspiracy to impose communism. The US election was stolen by Joe Biden. Free Markets deliver liberty. etc etc

People become accustomed to believing improbable things, without wondering if they are true or not, or only reading those who support the untruths, and that becomes stupidity. One you accept one or two overtly false axioms you can be lead to believe almost anything.

Stupidity is a political policy- engineered to support and encourage plutocracy.

The Great Delay on Climate

June 22, 2022

We gave up on climate long ago. We have known since the 70s of last century what the result of burning fossil fuels would be, and…..

  • We have had decades of avoidance.
  • Decades of pretending it is not a problem.
  • We’ve had fossil fuel companies and corporate networks pushing against action.
  • Corporately owned and controlled media has pretended that there is a major divergence of opinion about climate change, and promoted the fossil fuel company line.
  • Various pro-corporate think tanks have spread false information, to delay action and keep the system going.
  • We’ve had governments trying to make sure its always someone else who acts first.
  • We’ve had pro-corporate political parties refusing to act at all.
  • We’ve had pro-corporate political parties claiming that climate change was politicized, as they went about politicizing it.
  • We’ve had governments sponsor and encourage fossil fuels with taxpayers’ money.
  • We’ve had confusion as in Germany where they increased emissions from lignite and locked in diesel while they almost went renewable.
  • We have had a reduction in emissions, accidentally due to Covid, but (in the last 30 years) we have never reduced the trend of increasing CO2 in the atmosphere.
  • We’ve had pro-corporate think tanks, media and parties shouting out that it will be the end of the world if we act to reduce pollution and environmental destruction.

As a result, the world will almost certainly will not act to achieve the Paris goals, and those goals will probably not have been steep enough to change the trajectory in any case.

We are gaining truly bizarre temperature levels in various places including the poles. We are getting almost global extreme flood and fire events. We are having collapses in animal and insect populations, that will disrupt the ecologies we depend upon for food.

It is logical to assume that as we reach tipping points, and the tundras release vast clouds of methane and we keep increasing the mining and burning of fossil fuels, that things will get much worse. This is only now the beginning.

And still we keep refusing to act.

It gets more difficult to act the more we wait, and the worse the conditions get.

However, we are learning the truth. Many corporations do not care whether your life and livelihood is threatened or whether their civilization is likely to collapse etc, as long as they can keep making an easy profit. Governments will rarely act against established corporate interests. We have also learnt that there are lots of people who will go along with them rather than face up to significant problems – and that they will think they are virtuous for acting that way.

The main problem hindering action on climate change remains politics and power relations, and there is little sign it is changing in the large scale. Governments and business will not do it for us. If we want action, we have to act ourselves and organize and act together.

Capitalism and Ideology

June 17, 2022

Its hard to say what capitalism is or is not, but relatively easy to point out when you are reading a book which is driven by ideology driven rather than by wanting to discover the truth about how capitalism works.

1) Funding

If the authors are, or were, funded by corporate sponsored think tanks or just plain sponsorship, then they are likely bought. They were chosen for their ability to please their corporate customers and their desires, and it becomes part of their job. Accuracy is almost certainly less important than maintaining their income. Hence by capitalist logic, we should be suspicious of these people. This covers a fair number of ‘Austrian’ and ‘free market’ writers.

2) Naturalisation

If the author presents capitalism as purely natural, and conflates capitalism with other forms of economic activity such as trade, exchange, production or so on, then its ideological. Communist societies engaged in trade and so on. We would expect communism and capitalism to be economically different. The term ‘Capitalism’ has to be limited to specific set of economic and political organisations or the term is meaningless.

3) Capitalist hierarchy is good

If the author presents the wealth hierarchy in capitalism as a matter of hard work, genius or customer satisfaction alone, then the work is ideological. Capitalism involves a form of political organisation which allows and reinforces the concentration of wealth amongst certain people, and hence the building of fixed hierarchy and power differences are essential parts of capitalism, which need to be part of our analysis, not counted as accidents or benefits.

4) Without a past

An ideological person may present capitalism as being without a history, to bury the violence, dispossession and theft (or colonialism) that has been a dynamic part of capitalist history, and can still be seen today. They are suppressing the roots and routes of capitalist development to make it look better. They may even argue that capitalism is always peaceful, ignoring the enclosure of the commons, the conditions of the working class in 19th Century England, the East India Company or the Opium Wars and many other acts of violence which have benefitted and helped originate capitalism – we could even argue World War I was entirely about defending and establishing colonial and capitalist empires.

Capitalism does not have a peaceful past, and that is part of the way it works.

5) Uniquely generates moral goods like ‘liberty’

If the person says that something valuable, like liberty, is a fundamental part of capitalism, then they are likely being driven by ideology. Capitalists like liberty for themselves, most dominating classes do. The question is ‘was liberty for the people something that had to be fought for, against capitalists or not’. The historical answer seems to be that it had to be fought for. Furthermore most pro-capitalist ideologies act to remove that liberty, by putting the liberty of corporations first, or attempting to restrict the power of organised labor. Pro-capitalists also tend to oppose social movements for the liberty of those still suffering from oppressive histories (calling them SJW etc). Liberty is not a natural result of capitalism, although, as said previously, capitalists like liberty for themselves, or for their liberty to be immune from considerations of public health, functioning ecologies, good working conditions, wealth sharing. etc.

Sometimes ideological authors engage in argument by punning saying that free markets lead to freedom, or that free markets are freedom. In practice the ‘free market’ devolves into whatever is best for the wealth elite, and gives them the freedoms they need and can obtain.

  • [This does not mean that there can be no liberty in any form of Capitalism. This had happened to some degree and needs investigation – what causes it?
  • A real ideologue will respond to the idea that capitalism is not about liberty, by creating a false dichotomy. Either you support whatever their version of capitalism is, or you supposedly support tyranny. No, you can support a kind of democratic capitalism, of the type that they have in Scandinavia, or had in the 50s, 60s and 70s in the US, UK and Australia. that is easy.]

Capitalism generates what is ‘profitable,’ or extractive, to the system, and this may, or may not be, what people think is morally good. It may not even be self-sustaining, but destructive in the long term.

6) Removes power inequalities

The fundamental social relationship in capitalism is between employer and employee, master and servant, boss and worker. This is rarely a relationship of liberty, and more usually a relationship of punitive obedience – to survive most people will ‘need’ a boss.

There is no necessary harmony between the working class and the capitalist class. Even capitalist theory should realise that, in general, workers want good wages, freedoms and good working conditions, and that capitalists want high profits and low costs. Labour is purely a cost to capitalists and the freer it is to disobey, or live independently of capitalism, the more costly it is. Capitalists also want cheap pollution, and cheap extraction, those affected by pollution and extraction do not.

7) Opposed to the State

Ideologues frequently claim that capitalism is opposed to the State. However, no form of capitalism has ever existed without a State, to protect wealth inequalities, labour inequalities, contract and obligation, the social forms required by capitalism, and to satisfy the wealth elites desire for power and control. Laws in capitalism are often about defending the rights of particular sections of the capitalist class. Even if this wasn’t the case with some laws, then there is nothing to prevent it from happening if enough capitalists desire it.

Some corporations are large enough and wealthy enough to count as mobile States in their own right

The idea that capitalism is opposed to the State functions as a method of explaining away the problems in capitalism – “it was the State what done it!” not the dynamics of capitalism. Where capitalism exists, then the State is largely controlled by the capitalist class, who buy politicians, regulations laws, and subsidies to help themselves survive. Where capitalism exists the State is the Capitalist State. Capitalism and the State are not separable, and hence the State is part of the system, not opposed to it.

The function of being opposed to the State, is to destroy, or ‘roll back’, any part of the State which might constrain capitalists, or benefit workers and other people, and to make the State purely plutocratic. Paradoxically those who opposed the State never seem to make it smaller, perhaps because that is not their aim. Controlling and punishing non-wealth-elites can take a lot of effort and State mechanics, as can subsidising businesses which supply the military.

8) People are simple

If an author states that people are primarily competitive, then they are driven by ideology. People are both competitive and co-operative. Indeed without co-operation you could not have most forms of competition like wars, or even like corporations. Usually the reason for ignoring co-operation is to pretend that the wealth elites will not co-operate together to take over the State or to found a State, for their group advantage. It also obscures the idea that crony capitalism, and state capture, are normal forms of capitalism.

Co-operation amongst the wealth elites leads to plutocracy, suppression of liberty for others, and the end of open markets.

9) Economic Man

Any book which reduces people to rational profit driven machines, is ideological. People are irrational and complicated. Any view which reduces people to competitive rational profit seeking machines is almost certainly going to destroy the conditions for human contentment or satisfying human life.

John Stuart Mill made this assumption to make economics simple for himself, without pretending that this was true, but it became taken as true, as it helps justify and naturalize capitalism

10) Markets are perfect information processors

Ideologists insist that markets are the best form of information processors. However, the information available in capitalism, tends towards information that encourages purchase, profit, extraction and more capitalist power. It is not geared towards capitalists recognising the signals that they are doing something pathological, before the destruction happens. Hence business cycles, corporate crashes, stock market crashes, market bubbles, ecological failures such as over-fishing and so on.

The market is, however, part of the ecology, and the ecology can be thought of as an information processor, but the way that information is processed is through disruption of ecological equilibrium, leading to disruption or destruction, as a new equilibrium is found. These new equilibriums do not have to be beneficial to previously existing life forms. The drive for immediate profit in the market may not signal this information in ways which can be recognised until too late.

That appears to be what is happening now with ecological destruction and climate change. Despite the dangers being reasonably obvious to many people (especially scientists), most capitalists keep on profiteering and making the dangers worse.

Taking the market ‘out’ of the bigger ecology, or making the market more important than the bigger ecology, or into the main information processor, makes the market a completely useless information processor, filled with falsity and avoidance, and headed towards destruction on a grand scale.

Conclusion

If a book only considers an ideal capitalism, or an imagined capitalism, it is ideological. Any true consideration of capitalism must consider real forms of capitalism, their history and mess. We cannot do economics, or any other social science, in the abstract.