Posts Tagged ‘China’

China again: Poetics and practice of nature

May 11, 2021

I just want to quote some of the Remarks by Chinese President Xi Jinping at Leaders Summit on Climate, on the 22nd April 2021, because I doubt many people have seen them.

We must be committed to harmony between man and Nature. “All things that grow live in harmony and benefit from the nourishment of Nature.” Mother Nature is the cradle of all living beings, including humans. It provides everything essential for humanity to survive and thrive. Mother Nature has nourished us, and we must treat Nature as our root, respect it, protect it, and follow its laws. Failure to respect Nature or follow its laws will only invite its revenge. Systemic spoil of Nature will take away the foundation of human survival and development, and will leave us human beings like a river without a source and a tree without its roots. We should protect Nature and preserve the environment like we protect our eyes, and endeavor to foster a new relationship where man and Nature can both prosper and live in harmony.

That seems fairly straightforward and praiseworthy. It is certainly hard to imagine Australia’s Prime Minister saying anything like this…

We must be committed to green development. Green mountains are gold mountains. To protect the environment is to protect productivity, and to improve the environment is to boost productivity — the truth is as simple as that. We must abandon development models that harm or undermine the environment, and must say no to shortsighted approaches of going after near-term development gains at the expense of the environment. Much to the contrary, we need to ride the trend of technological revolution and industrial transformation, seize the enormous opportunity in green transition, and let the power of innovation drive us to upgrade our economic, energy and industrial structures, and make sure that a sound environment is there to buttress sustainable economic and social development worldwide.

Unfortunately this sounds a bit techno-hype, as if with the right tech we can do anything….. and this suggests a technocratic approach rather than a harmony with natural systems approach. But at least the environment continues to feature.

We must be committed to systemic governance. Mountains, rivers, forests as well as farmlands, lakes, grasslands and deserts all make indivisible parts of the ecosystem. Protecting the ecosystem requires more than a simplistic, palliative approach. We need to follow the innate laws of the ecosystem and properly balance all elements and aspects of Nature. This is a way that may take us where we want to be, an ecosystem in sound circulation and overall balance.

Yes! again. Although we need to recognise we don’t know everything about nature, so attempts to ‘rebalance’ will occasionally fail – and we must be ready to change our behaviour when it generates failure.

We must be committed to a people-centered approach. The environment concerns the well-being of people in all countries. We need to take into full account people’s longing for a better life and a good environment as well as our responsibility for future generations. We need to look for ways to protect the environment, grow the economy, create jobs and remove poverty all at the same time, so as to deliver social equity and justice in the course of green transition and increase people’s sense of benefit, happiness and security.

I’m not sure about this. We must help everyone, yes, but the problem is that ecologies are not people centred. They can survive without people, and possibly survive better? People cannot, as yet, survive without the world. Ultimately I think we have to shift to an eco-centred point of view, while retaining reverence and compassion for all people. We probably have to maintain a tolerance of ambiguity.

We must be committed to multilateralism. We need to work on the basis of international law, follow the principle of equity and justice, and focus on effective actions. We need to uphold the UN-centered international system, comply with the objectives and principles laid out in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Paris Agreement, and strive to deliver the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. We need to each take stronger actions, strengthen partnerships and cooperation, learn from each other and make common progress in the new journey toward global carbon neutrality. In this process, we must join hands, not point fingers at each other; we must maintain continuity, not reverse course easily; and we must honor commitments, not go back on promises.

The problem here is that while this is all accurate, but perhaps what it leads to is not quite so good, as with….

We must be committed to the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities. The principle of common but differentiated responsibilities is the cornerstone of global climate governance. Developing countries now face multiple challenges to combat COVID-19, grow the economy, and address climate change. We need to give full recognition to developing countries’ contribution to climate action and accommodate their particular difficulties and concerns. Developed countries need to increase climate ambition and action. At the same time, they need to make concrete efforts to help developing countries strengthen the capacity and resilience against climate change, support them in financing, technology, and capacity building, and refrain from creating green trade barriers, so as to help developing countries accelerate the transition to green and low-carbon development.

Without care this can lead to a “this is not my responsibility” attitude. Sure developed countries have to take the lead, as they have the most slack, but China is pretty close to being in that category, and certainly wants the respect which goes with that category and which it deserves. This is one of those areas in which Buberian dialogue seems needed. Developed countries also need not to think they know everything, and allow other countries to try experiments…

Last year, I made the official announcement that China will strive to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. This major strategic decision is made based on our sense of responsibility to build a community with a shared future for mankind and our own need to secure sustainable development. China has committed to move from carbon peak to carbon neutrality in a much shorter time span than what might take many developed countries, and that requires extraordinarily hard efforts from China. The targets of carbon peak and carbon neutrality have been added to China’s overall plan for ecological conservation. We are now making an action plan and are already taking strong nationwide actions toward carbon peak. Support is being given to peaking pioneers from localities, sectors and companies. China will strictly control coal-fired power generation projects, and strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th Five-Year Plan period and phase it down in the 15th Five-Year Plan period. Moreover, China has decided to accept the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol and tighten regulations over non-carbon dioxide emissions. China’s national carbon market will also start trading.

The problem is that these and other promises have not been put into law. That is surprising. Given my government, I don’t trust promises which are not legislated – and even then they can be repealed if inconvenient.

As we say in China, “When people pull together, nothing is too heavy to be lifted.” Climate change poses pressing, formidable and long-term challenges to us all. Yet I am confident that as long as we unite in our purposes and efforts and work together with solidarity and mutual assistance, we will rise above the global climate and environment challenges and leave a clean and beautiful world to future generations.

Again we need more talk like this, but we also need the action, and building more coal fired energy is not the way to go, and does not demonstrate that all is on track.

China, the World and Coal

April 8, 2021

The organisation Global Energy Monitor (About which I know nothing, there are too many sources of information nowadays) working with the Sierra Club, has just released a somewhat depressing report (Boom and Bust 2021) on the world’s coal energy generation. It opens:

A steep increase in coal plant development in China offset a retreat from coal in the rest of the world in 2020, resulting in the first increase in global coal capacity development since 2015. A record-tying 37.8 gigawatts (GW) of coal plants were retired in 2020, led by the U.S. with 11.3 GW and EU27 with 10.1 GW, but these retirements were eclipsed by China’s 38.4 GW of new coal plants. China commissioned 76% of the world’s new coal plants in 2020, up from 64% in 2019, driving a 12.5 GW increase in the global coal fleet in 2020….

Outside China, 11.9 GW [of coal] was commissioned

Boom and Bust: 3, 4.

The Chinese boom began as provinces began using coal plant building to stimulate local economies during Covid.

the boom was enabled by loosened restrictions on new coal plant permits and increased lending for coal mega-projects by the central government.

Boom and Bust: 10

Whether this will continue or not is unclear as China’s Central Environment Inspection Group issued a reprimand to the National Energy Administration for not enforcing the countries official limits on coal development…

They said:

the NEA lowered environmental specifications when revising a coal law and did not focus enough on promoting clean energy and a low-carbon transition.

“New coal power capacity at key areas for air pollution was not strictly controlled, leading to what should be built was not built and what shouldn’t was built….

“The failure to put environmental protection at its due height… is a major reason for long-term extensive development in China’s energy industry,”

Reuters. China accuses energy agency of negligence of environmental protection. 30 January 2021

However, it is not clear what the supposed reprimand means, or whether it has the support of high-ups in the party, and:

China’s 14th Five-Year Plan targets non-fossil energy to grow from 16 to 20% of all energy consumption, a rate of increase that is unlikely to cover the growth in power demand, meaning an expansion of coal power is likely through 2025.

Boom and Bust: 5

There is a level of confusion in Chinese policy. People in the West tend to see China as a ruthless and coherent dictatorship, but it may probably better to see it as a continuous struggle and balancing act. The Central government issues instructions and the local provinces work their ways around them, if they chose. The central government knows that it risks power when it tries to impose its will on insiders (far less problems with ‘outsiders’), and that it could start an uprising, or at least the results could be unpleasant and destabilising, so many things proceed rather haphazardly. Vague instructions, hints, reprimands, protests, screening, misdirection, agreeing the central government is wise but ignoring them as much as possible to satisfy local powers and business, jockeying around factions, doing what you can, occasional overt brutality, and so on.

As another example take this official speech I was referred to as an example of Chinese determination to reduce emissions. It’s translated by google translate, which does not help, but if anything can be said to be vague and woolly it would be this speechifying. No mention of procedures or coal for example, but lots of vague exhortation.

Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, President of the State, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and Director of the Central Finance and Economics Commission hosted the ninth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Commission on the afternoon of March 15 to study and promote the healthy development of the platform economy and the realization of carbon

Xi Jinping delivered an important speech at the meeting and emphasized that the development of my country’s platform economy is at a critical period. It is necessary to focus on the long-term, take into account the current situation, make up for shortcomings, strengthen weaknesses, create an innovative environment, solve outstanding contradictions and problems, and promote the healthy and sustainable platform economy. Development; the achievement of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is a broad and profound economic and social systemic change.

[After Xi’s speech] The meeting emphasized that… It is necessary to build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, control the total amount of fossil energy, focus on improving utilization efficiency, implement renewable energy substitution actions, deepen the reform of the power system, and build a new power system with new energy as the mainstay. 

We must implement pollution reduction and carbon reduction actions in key industries, promote green manufacturing in the industrial sector, raise energy-saving standards in the construction sector, and accelerate the formation of green and low-carbon transportation in the transportation sector. 

It is necessary to promote major breakthroughs in green and low-carbon technologies, accelerate the deployment of low-carbon cutting-edge technology research, accelerate the promotion and application of pollution reduction and carbon reduction technologies, and establish and improve green and low-carbon technology evaluation and trading systems and technological innovation service platforms. 

It is necessary to improve the green and low-carbon policy and market system, improve the energy “dual control” system, improve fiscal and taxation, price, finance, land, government procurement and other policies that are conducive to green and low-carbon development, accelerate the promotion of carbon emission rights trading, and actively develop green finance . 

We must advocate green and low-carbon life, oppose luxury and waste, encourage green travel, and create a new fashion for green and low-carbon life. 

It is necessary to enhance the capacity of ecological carbon sinks, strengthen land and space planning and use management and control, effectively play the role of carbon sequestration in forests, grasslands, wetlands, oceans, soils, and frozen soils, and increase the increase in ecosystem carbon sinks. 

It is necessary to strengthen international cooperation in tackling climate change, promote the formulation of international rules and standards, and build a green silk road.

Xi Jinping presided over the ninth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee. People’s Daily, 16 March 2021 Paragraphing altered and introduced.

This increase in coal, despite official public policy, is particularly bemusing as coal in the US collapsed during the Trump years.

retirements rising to 52.4 GW during Trump’s four years compared to 48.9 GW during Obama’s second term. Despite the record pace of retirements President Biden’s pledge to decarbonize the U.S. power sector by 2035 will depend on retiring existing plants even faster, as only one third of the U.S. coal fleet is scheduled to retire by 2035.

Boom and Bust: 4

In the EU:

retirements rose to a record 10.1 GW in 2020 from 6.1 GW in 2019. EU27 retirements were led by Spain, which retired half of its coal fleet (4.8 GW of 9.6 GW).”

Boom and Bust: 4

In most of Asia

South and southeast Asia may be seeing their last new coal plant projects, as government officials in Bangladesh, the Philippines, Vietnam, and Indonesia have announced plans to cut up to 62.0 GW of planned coal power. GEM estimates the policies will leave 25.2 GW of coal power capacity remaining in pre-construction planning in the four countries—an 80% decline from the 125.5 GW planned there just five years ago, in 2015.

Boom and Bust: 5

After China, India has the most plants in pre-construction development with 29.2 GW and they commissioned 2 GW of new plants in 2020. Between 2010 to 2017, India increased its coal fleet by an average of 17.3 GW per year.

This is almost the total of the report’s comments on Australia:

Despite the existence of proposals for two new plants totaling 3.0 GW, Australia has not commissioned a new plant since Bluewaters power station in 2009, and that plant was recently declared worthless by one of its part-owners, Sumitomo, which wrote off its US$250 million investment due to the difficulty of obtaining refinancing loans for coal projects.

A proposed 2.0 GW Kurri Kurri coal plant is on shaky ground as the builder China Energy Engineering Group (CEEC) is under sanctions from the World Bank for committing fraud in a power project in Zambia. The proposal has also been made moot by a plan to build a gas-fired plant in Kurri Kurri to replace the Liddel power station, which will be retired in 2023.

Shine Energy’s proposed 1.0 GW Collinsville power station received an A$3.6 million grant for a feasibility study despite the fact that Shine has never developed a power plant.

Boom and Bust: 19 Paragraphing introduced.

The progress is such that:

“no region is close to meeting the required reductions for the 1.5 degree pathway…. [and] the world as a whole is no closer to the 1.5 pathway than it was two and a half years ago.

Globally, the projected coal-fired capacity in 2030, if all proposed projects are realized and retirements are not accelerated further, is almost 2,400 GW, while the amount of capacity consistent with the IPCC 1.5 degree pathways would be 1,100 GW.

Boom and Bust: 15, 17

*************

Footnote:

In the years since the Paris agreement, 13 countries have made a decision to phase out coal by 2030, compared with just two that had such a commitment before. 

CountryPhaseout yearDecision year
Belgium20172010
Portugal20212019
France20222016
United Kingdom20242015
Italy20252017
Ireland20252018
Greece20282019
Netherlands20292018
Finland20292019
Canada20292019
New Zealand20302017
Denmark20302017
Israel20302018
Slovakia20302019
Hungary20302019
Germany20382020

The Powering Past Coal Alliance claims that they have 36 countries and 36 subnational governments (some of which are within the countries they are counting) who have coal phase out measures.