Posts Tagged ‘climate change’

Joel Fitzgibbon on the Australian Labor Party

January 1, 2020

Joel Fitzgibbon has a piece in the Herald today, as part of the debate in the Australian Labor party about what it should do to win back government, after its amazing loss. It does not seem to be particularly well thought out, and is probably based on the massive swing against him in an electorate with a big coal industry, which he has blamed on the party being too green.

He starts by mentioning the difficulty of satisfying traditional voters and the “more recently arrived progressive followers.”

By more recent progressives, he presumably means the people who voted for Whitlam in the early 1970s, or even earlier. These people are not recent. They are not an add on, by any normal measure. That he thinks they are, is rather strange in itself.

He is “against a creep to the left,” a creep which seems improbable, given the party’s steady move to the right from the Hawke and Keating days onwards, and the steady loss of union power.

The centre is now what would have been called centre right in those days. Even the Conservative Menzies would be considered a rabid left-winger if people approached his writings without preconceptions, as he thought that people had a right to social security without harassment.

Fitzgibbon wants to win back blue collar workers, which is fair enough – if he had evidence that Labor lost significant numbers of blue collar voters anywhere other than Queensland, where a union was fighting against them.

Some data on Blue collar workers… Randomly picked, and a little old, so I need something better, but…..

29% of people in the labour force are blue-collar workers. This is not much of a base to base your hopes on, when you have close to 100% of all working age and older people voting.

Blue collar workers are apparently under-represented in social service groups, cultural groups and school groups. So they are probably not party members of union members. So they will be hard to get loyalty from. If they are relatively low wage, they will want some wage security, which is not something he mentions as important.

He thinks it is important to reject the Greens, despite the Greens’ firm alliance with Julia Gillard, and their general alliance with Kevin Rudd. It was not the Greens fault that Rudd was deposed, or that Gillard was deposed. It is not clear, why if climate is a priority, then more intensely separating from the Greens than Labor currently does (which is pretty intensely), should also be a priority, unless Labor had better climate and environmental policies – which I doubt it has.

One way of keeping both blue collar and professional voters might be to be separate from the Greens, but make it clear that the Greens are potential allies, and that Labor will not allow greening to diminish jobs; even though there is actually little evidence that being green would lower either jobs or wages. At the moment, anyone with any concern about environment is not going to give Labor their first preference – especially not given his leader’s ongoing promotion of coal and Fitzgibbon’s next proposals

He seems to think that refusing to support increasing oil, gas and coal mines and exports and incidentally killing water supplies and fertility, is the same as “turning our backs on resources-sector workers”, but it is not. It would be if you did not have plans to replace jobs with equally high paying work, or if you did not realise that mining jobs are in decline in any case. As I’ve said before, there are almost no mining jobs in the mega-Adani mine.

I guess this refusal to go against mining corporations is Labor’s official position but it does not have to be. We do not have to destroy our ecology in order to give people good work, and interestingly the survey above states “blue-collar workers gain less meaning from their work than other people gain from theirs.” So they may not be enamoured of their jobs, just of having work and income. It may not be sensible to defend jobs which are both boring and dangerous.

Again, part of Labor’s problem may be that the workforce does see that Labor abandoned them when it introduced the neoliberal reforms of the 1980s and 90s which may well have led to stagnant wages, house price increases, increasing inequality, cut backs in services and so on. Certainly I could imagine that people might not think Labor had any solutions to these problems. His idea that “Hawke and Keating proved Labor can promote and defend these causes without walking away from our traditional base” is probably delusional.

He then promotes religion: “People of faith worshipping in Eltham expect the same respect and freedoms as those worshipping in Everton.” Strangely the survey quoted above reports blue collar workers are even less religious than most other Australians. So you may put your supposed base off by becoming more overtly religious and granting religious people privileges to interfere in other people’s lives on the grounds of religion – which is what the religious freedom debate seems to be attempting to do.

Finally “Labor has the policy wit to remain a leader on climate change policy while also supporting our coal miners and those who work in the petroleum sector.” Unfortunately this is just an aspiration; he gives no evidence for this assertion, and no inkling of what policies might be involved. He doesn’t even wave his hands about. This is a particular failing given the Black November/December fires, and it puts him on a level with the PM.

Labor needs to show that it understands the ecological precariousness of agriculture and water in this country, and how these are repeatedly threatened by mining, and how Labor is going to act without threatening numbers of jobs or incomes, and by providing new jobs.

Perhaps it could start trying.

Continued in What could the ALP have done better?

Sacrificing Jobs to fight Climate change

December 26, 2019

People who want to do nothing about climate change, often ask how many jobs leftists are prepared to sacrificed to fight climate change. They are presumably trying to imply that fighting climate change will produce even more unemployment and misery amongst working people.

A true and accurate answer is difficult, as it is hard to predict the results of actions in a complex system. However, we can guess that the loss of jobs fighting climate change, is likely to be considerably less than neoliberals worried about during the great neoliberal revolution, or the birth of the computer age, or whatever.

This is because most lefists talk about something called ‘just transition’, in which displaced people like coal miners are helped to find new work, or set up new businesses, and are not left in poverty or whatever, as usually happens when the coal company moves out because they have dug up the coal and destroyed the fields and want to move somewhere more profitable.

People on the left also suspect there may be more jobs in renewables than in fossil fuels, particularly during the layout period, and especially if fossil fuels are brought in from overseas, or if automation continues to increase in mining. So far installing rooftop solar requires people and care, and I don’t see that being ended soon.

It would be nice to see people on the right worried about jobs lost through automation in mining, or automation in offices, through the expansion of decision making programs, or even through their anti-renewable legislation and activities. It might be nice to see them worry about money lost to the workers because people find it hard to negotiate good wages without unions. The proportion of GDP going to the population in general is declining, but that is apparently not a problem.

We might also wonder, how many lives are rightists prepared to sacrifice to preserve fossil fuel company profits? How much displacement of people from their homes will they tolerate through changes in environment or produced by mining? How many deaths would they like through pollution, and poisoning?

It is hard to predict how many people will die from climate change, but it won’t be none, and almost certainly will not be trivial, assuming that you don’t mind some people dying to preserve profits.

Not doing anything, is surely going to create massive misery amongst ordinary people, and may even destroy the economy that we rely on. So, while it is probable that if we do try and solve the problem we won’t develop any worse paid, and more precarious, jobs than most people have now, it is highly probable that people will be much worse off if we do nothing.

Doing nothing is a greater danger than doing something.

The weird thing is that most leftists have some faith in the capacity of capitalism to thrive through creative destruction, and in its ability to adapt to new circumstances, while most rightists just seem to want to preserve established profits, or have massive fear of change…. In general, people on the right don’t even propose solutions to the problem, just hope that it is not real or that it won’t be that bad, and we can keep on destroying things forever to make our money. Sad news, but the Earth is finite, and we are sure not ready to get into the space business yet.

Donald Trump on Wind Energy

December 26, 2019

This is an excerpt on wind power and the Green New Deal, from a speech by President Trump issued by the Whitehouse, so its absolutely official…. Read and enjoy?

Palm Beach County Convention Center
West Palm Beach, Florida: 5:23 P.M. EST

“How about the senator from Hawaii? Nasty. Nasty. Horrible. Gee, what she says — what she says is so mean and angry. She’s not the smartest person on the planet. (Laughter.) She wants the Green New Deal, and then they informed her that that does not include airplanes. And you’re the senator from Hawaii. So they said, “What are you going to do?” And then they talked about building a train to Hawaii, can you believe it? (Laughter.)

“No, no, she wants it, even though you can’t — you’ll never get to Hawaii again. Say goodbye to Hawaii. No, it’s crazy, isn’t it, though?

“But I don’t want to knock it. All of these things have to be st- — it’s too soon. It’s too soon. Let it go. Let — let it seed. Like — just like our great agenda has to seed like a tree. It has to seed. Let the Green New Deal seed. (Laughter.) And then about two months before the campaign ends, I will rip that sucker like you have — (applause). We’ll let it seed, the Green New Deal. (Applause.)

“We’ll have an economy based on wind. I never understood wind. You know, I know windmills very much. I’ve studied it better than anybody I know. It’s very expensive. They’re made in China and Germany mostly — very few made here, almost none. But they’re manufactured tremendous — if you’re into this — tremendous fumes. Gases are spewing into the atmosphere. You know we have a world, right? So the world is tiny compared to the universe. So tremendous, tremendous amount of fumes and everything. You talk about the carbon footprint — fumes are spewing into the air. Right? Spewing. Whether it’s in China, Germany, it’s going into the air. It’s our air, their air, everything — right?

“So they make these things and then they put them up. And if you own a house within vision of some of these monsters, your house is worth 50 percent of the price. They’re noisy. They kill the birds. You want to see a bird graveyard? You just go. Take a look. A bird graveyard. Go under a windmill someday. You’ll see more birds than you’ve ever seen ever in your life. (Laughter.)

“You know, in California, they were killing the bald eagle. If you shoot a bald eagle, they want to put you in jail for 10 years. A windmill will kill many bald eagles. It’s true.

“And you know what? After a certain number, they make you turn the windmill off. That’s true, by the way. This is — they make you turn it off after you — and yet, if you killed one they put you in jail. That’s okay. But why is it okay for these windmills to destroy the bird population? And that’s what they’re doing.

“AUDIENCE MEMBER: Because they’re idiots!

“THE PRESIDENT: (Laughs.) This is a conservative group, Dan. (Applause.) No, but it’s true. Am I right? (Applause.)

“I’ll tell you another thing about windmills. And I’m not — look, I like all forms of energy. And I think (inaudible) — really, they’re okay in industrial areas. Like you have an industrial plant, you put up a windmill — you know, et cetera, et cetera.

“I’ve seen the most beautiful fields, farms, fields — most gorgeous things you’ve ever seen, and then you have these ugly things going up. And sometimes they’re made by different companies. You know, I’m like a perfectionist; I really built good stuff. And so you’ll see like a few windmills made by one company: General Electric. And then you’ll see a few made by Siemens, and you’ll see a few made by some other guy that doesn’t have 10 cents, so it looks like a — so you see all these windows, they’re all different shades of color. They’re like sort of white, but one is like an orange-white. (Laughter.) It’s my favorite color: orange. (Applause.)

“No, but — and you see these magnificent fields, and they’re owned — and you know what they don’t tell you about windmills? After 10 years, they look like hell. You know, they start to get tired, old. You got to replace them. A lot of times, people don’t replace them. They need massive subsidy from the government in order to make it. It’s really a terrible thing.

“And what they want to do is they want to get rid of all petroleum product. That means you basically won’t have any factories in the United States.

“So tell me though, how are you going to win Texas when you say, “We’re going to get rid of all petroleum,” right? (Applause.) If you win — how about this guy, Beto? Beto. He was a beauty.

“AUDIENCE: Booo —

“THE PRESIDENT: Beto came out — he’s from Texas. He came out against religion, he came out against guns, and he came out against energy — oil, right? So he’s against oil, guns, and the Bible. Abraham Lincoln can’t win with that platform in Texas. I can tell you, right? (Laughter and applause.)

“No, we’re doing it right. We’re doing it right. And you know, our numbers, environmentally, right now are better than they’ve ever been before, just so you know, because I’m an environmentalist. I am. (Applause.) I want the cleanest water on the planet. I want the cleanest air anywhere — crystal-clean water. I want perfectly clean air. And we have the best numbers right now that we’ve ever had, meaning in the last 40 years. (Applause.) I assume the numbers a couple of hundred years ago were better because we didn’t have anything. So, over the last 40 years — we’re in very good shape.

“The coming months will decide whether our country will be governed by a corrupt, failed, and far-left ruling class or whether we will govern our country. Will it be governed of and by the American people? That’s what we’re talking about. (Applause.)”

What he did at Christmas

December 26, 2019

Short and complete message from Barnaby Joyce, ex-right wing, deputy PM of Australia….. on twitter

“Well, you probably wonder what politicians do on Christmas Eve. Well, when it’s drought, feed cattle. [shot of drought affected land].

“Now, you don’t have to convince me that the climate’s not changing; it is changing. My problem’s always been whether you believe a new tax is going to change it back?

“Look, I just don’t want the government any more in my life, I’m sick of the government being in my life.

“Now, the other thing we’ve got to acknowledge is, you know, there’s a higher authority that’s beyond our comprehension, and right up there in the sky [camera shot of sky]. Unless we understand that’s got to be respected, then we’re just fools. We’re going to get nailed.”

Obvious Commentary:

People have been saying the drought is bad for some years now, and that it is being prolonged and made worse by Climate Change. During that time Barnaby has been running with the “I love a Sunburnt Country” line, with a rare, but disbelieving, ‘maybee something is happening’ comment…. So it is a boost to hear him say, on camera, climate change might be real.

Even if he almost uses the “climate always changes” line.

Then he asks us if a new tax change it back. No. It won’t.

Because of people like him, a Carbon tax and some mild government action could no longer prevent the current drought – after all the drought is happening, we can no longer prevent it. What could have happened if he and others had not prevented action, never mind concerted action, is a whole different world – completely unpredictable. It would most likely be a better world, with a much better future, but we won’t ever know for sure.

His remark does manage to show the massive lack of creativity on the Right. He can only think of a tax as a solution. Nothing else. This is particularly bad, given that the Carbon price was not thought up by him or by his side of politics, in the first place. They really do seem to have nothing to offer,

To be fair one action was probably never going to change a problem of a complex system. We have needed multiple actions, for some time.

Even now, we could try to stop making the situation worse. We could stop new coal mines and gas drilling, and phase out old coal and gas. We could help workers find new well paid work. We could support international action rather than oppose it. We could support renewables rather than try to make the market so complicated its hard to invest. We could invest in new transmission cables to allow new power sources to come on line. We could invest in storage to help smooth out supply. We could support regenerative agriculture and save the farm sector. We could investigate and fund GHG drawdown. We could de-financialise water to stop wealthy people accumulating most of it and letting towns die. We could stop mining in water tables and in catchment areas.

There is a lot of things we could do. I’m sure people can think of more possibilities. A carbon tax is only one prospect not all of them.

He says he wants the government out of his life. Cool. He could resign. Start up a business. Refuse Federal and State assistance for his farm and business. He could reject his government pension…. Its easy. No? Odd. He could want all the gifts and non of the responsibilities.

If the statement means that he thinks that he can solve climate change by himself without any government involvement, then he should get on with it, and stop complaining that he can’t think of anything to do. Personally, I think he needs to persuade his party to get involved and take on the Liberals now that he has seen the problem. He could be helpful. He could be a maverick.

I suspect that God is not going to be particularly joyful that Barnaby Joyce recognised the great problem of our time, the great moral issue of our time, the challenge of whether to help to keep the creation going or abandoning it to greed, and then walked away saying it was God’s problem?

If people don’t respect God and God’s Creation, then we will be ‘nailed’. Things will get worse. That is one message he could take away from this. There is no longer any excuse to try nothing.

Myths of Climate 03: Apocalypse and Millennium

December 25, 2019

Continues from Myths of Climate 02: Eden and the Fall

In the myth of Apocalypse the end of the world is cataclysmic, and out of our hands. While there are warnings of its coming, it’s arrival is sudden and abrupt. It is the will of God, yet it is monstrous. However, in this myth, the good survive; they may even, in modern versions, be rescued intact in the Rapture, before much that is horrible occurs. There is a sense in that, as ‘we,’ or the, good survive and it is the end of historical disorder, Apocalypse can only be welcomed or encouraged. It represents a potential end of misery for those who make it. It is out of our control and we may not be good enough to pass into the new world (we may even end up in hell), so what can we do?

This myth, renders us largely helpless. It may prod us into action but it is a confused passive, and more or less individualistic action, as we can only be responsible for our own salvation at this moment. It promotes an acceptance of destruction as God’s will, or acts as a call for us to separate out from the sinful world, perhaps proposing the obliteration of others, or at least the acceptance of that obliteration, as we uneasily side with an apparent cosmic murderer to prove that we are among the good, and worthy of being saved.

If we are convinced of our own immortality and safety, then there is payback for our current suffering in the destruction of others, and it is not us being vicious; we can remain calmly moral. Apocalypse, further potentially reduces existential crisis by positing a specific end to the current disorder, and again we don’t have to do anything to solve the crisis and its problems; the need for action in the world is taken away.

There is a sense in which knowing the Apocalypse is coming can be soothing. The Apocalypse becomes both unstoppable destruction and relief. Given that it is sometimes not clear what we can do, the relief of just having to wait, could be even greater.

One problem is that the myth implies that while there are warnings of its coming, which are obscure to read, and possibly stages to its arrival, there is really one event. And yet the climate change is slow and gradual, a series of apparently disconnected events until perhaps tipping points are reached. It has been hard to tell climate change is happening, despite the record temperatures and the huge amounts of property damage from weather events. We can only say that it is likely these result from climate change, and the likelihood is increasing. There is no definite proof until after it has happened. Apocalypse is not a good model for thinking about climate change….

Despite the models inadequacy, much talk of climate slides into Apocalypse, especially when being “realistic”. For example, James Lovelock claims that:

The tropical and subtropical zones of the Earth will be too hot and dry to grow food or support human life. People will be forced to migrate towards the poles to places like Canada. There will be less than one billion people by the end of the century (Lovelock 2009).

That is more than 6 billion people will die – and probably die in warfare as migration, and resistance against migration, becomes violent. The UN World Health Organisation, far less dramatically, warns that even assuming:

continued economic growth and health progress… climate change is expected to cause approximately 250 000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050

That is a ‘mere’ 5 million people, but we have no real idea what will happen when we go over 2 degrees. It is unlikely in the extreme that there will be continued progress in dealing with health problems, as so much is likely to start breaking down.

The process is unfortunately cumulative, not one-off, as the myth of Apocalypse suggests.

The problem again is that the numbers of potential deaths are overwhelming, especially when we factor in deaths from pollution, heat stroke and loss of water. This magnitude also can lead us to feel that our individual action is worthless, and to start conceiving in symbolic terms, which may make the myth of Apocalypse seem even more real, and reinforce our sense of helplessness and hope that we will get through anyway, without doing anything.

More problematically, Apocalypse is also such a common trope that it is easy to demote one form of Apocalypse for another, or even to argue that because we predict bad results are due, the prediction is worthless. For example, it can be suggested that we have not yet produced “grey-goo” through nanotech, or that as Y2K was not disastrous, this just ‘proves’ climate change is not so bad, when it has little in common with either.

People can even spend more time planning what to do in a Zombie Apocalypse than in planning to prevent, and adapt to, climate change.

Using this kind of move, Paul Johnson, implied that reports of climate change come from evil people and predicted an economic apocalypse if we tried to deal with climate change – presumably economic disorder is worse than climate disorder:

Those who buy in to global warming wish to drastically curb human economic and industrial activities, regardless of the consequences for people, especially the poor. If the theory’s conclusions are accepted and agreed upon, the destructive results will be felt most severely in those states that adhere to the rule of law and will observe restrictions most faithfully…. We shall all suffer… as progress falters and then ceases and living standards decline.

In other words, acting is intrinsically unfair, and leaves you open to exploitation. He imagines the rest of the world will take advantage of those who act fairly, not only ignoring a history of ‘unfair action’, but projecting shadow to make those who believe in climate change seem deluded or evil.

More recently Australia’s prime minister has warned about not taking a “wrecking ball to the economy” (which implies that acting on climate change could produce economic Apocalypse), and is supporting coal exports supposedly to support reduction of poverty overseas, and arguing that it is unfair to expect Australia to curtail its GHG pollution, and unrealistic to expect it could have any global effect if we did.

Again, it is suggested that it is attempting to deal with climate change that produces Apocalypse, rather than climate change itself. Morrison also uses the idea of Apocalypse to try and discredit protestors and justify prevention of protests, as protestors are “apocalyptically inclined” and hence irrational. He even says that protestors tell Australians what to think, and so it is apparently justified for him to tell people what they should think or be punished for.

While phrased in terms of justice for the poor (showing how easily ‘justice’ is co-opted to continuing the status quo), the implied logic of both positions is that as the consequences are discomforting, then climate change must be a negligible problem, or a problem for others.

Psychologically this also seems an attempt to make the world familiar again so that previous patterns of virtue, action and belief still work. The framework suggests that as action opposed to the current system is uncertain then we should do nothing; even if the results of action supporting the same system are likely to be as equally uncertain. Apocalypse is apparently either ‘on’ or ‘off’, consequently the myth does not describe real events very well, as they tend to form a continuum, even if that does involve sudden tipping points.

In Morrison’s case, because of his active religion, it is possible that the idea of a secular apocalypse without God, seems irrational to him. The Apocalypse will happen only by God’s fiat, and not beforehand; and if it is coming, not only will he be saved, but what can be done?

The myth is active whatever ‘side’ you are on.

Millennium

Apocalypse shades into the counterposition of the myth of Millennium. In this myth the world spontaneously changes into a paradise (perhaps after apocalypse), often by a mass change of consciousness and there are no further problems. This is often seen in new age thought, where mysterious breakthroughs in consciousness are supposed to be happening all over the globe. Even the internet can be seen as forming a global mind which ushers in a new age of prosperity and enlightenment, or produces a melding of human minds into a super-intelligence. Again this kind of fantasy could distract from the actual problems, or the effort of acting.

Millennium can also call for the deaths of millions, as a necessary sacrifice of those who could not transform. This mythical framework suggests both that change is to be feared and accelerated.

Apocalypse and Millennium both demand purity from evil. In a dialogue with George Monbiot, Paul Kingsnorth (2009) writes:

The challenge is not how to shore up a crumbling empire with wave machines and global summits, but to start thinking about how we are going to live through its fall, and what we can learn from its collapse

Elsewhere he claims:

We’re deniers every time we say “80 percent by 2050,” or even “80 percent by 2020”; every time we refer to tipping points in the future tense; every time we advocate substituting “clean” energy for “dirty” energy; every time we buy a squiggly light bulb or a hybrid vehicle; every time we advocate for cap-and-trade, or even a carbon tax; every time we countenance the mention of loopy geoengineering schemes; every time we invoke the future of our children and grandchildren and ignore the widespread suffering from global climate disruption today.

Every time we say these things and more, we’re promoting denial of dire climate reality…. We’re denying that our consumption and waste have far exceeded planetary capacity, possibly irreparably so.

Such purity can produce the despair or depression as reported in interviews with climate activists. What actions can be enough when the end really is nigh? When it is declared to be too late. Yet, by acting, as opposed to not acting, we can make the changes and crises we have to deal with lesser than otherwise. This may not be perfect, but stopping before we increase by 3 degrees is better than going to increases of 4 or 6 degrees.

And indeed Kingsnorth seems to celebrate this collapse and, as George Monbiot suggests, the death of billions of people, by associating it with a return to Eden (Kingsnorth and Monbiot 2009).

Apocalyptic optimism and despair generate hopelessness and refusal of action. For Kingsnorth, putting effort into clean energy is a pointless diversion on our way to the end. Here he (perhaps inadvertently) joins together with Paul Johnson, and other refusers, who suggests that as biofuels did not solve the problem and caused an increase in food prices, we should do nothing. That biofuels were not a solution does not mean there is no solution, but maintaining purity of categories in Apocalypse or Millennium demands that if something has failed then we should not bother trying something else. The myths join ‘believers’ with ‘deniers’ in helplessness or in false optimism of supposing miracles will necessarily occur.

Conclusion

It does not seem that these myths are terribly useful for dealing with climate change, and life after climate change, but we cannot ignore its pull, or its effects. It needs to be faced into with others, and new schematas found.

Continues in Myths of Climate 04: Prometheus

Psychology and climate?

December 23, 2019

The question of psychology, climate change, and our apparent inability to deal with the problems, is an extraordinarily complicated question, so please excuse the length of this attempted foray.

First off I’d argue that, in the case of climate change, we probably cannot isolate individual psychological inabilities to deal with the problems, from the social and political inabilities to deal with problems; they are almost certainly all related and interconnected.

We live in a society whose huge success has depended on ecological despoliation and the production of greenhouse gases (GHG). This is a reality. The ‘available energy’ we have had to innovate, to build the form of prosperity we have, and the levels of military expansion and protection we have had, depends almost entirely upon fossil fuels, concrete (with heavy GHG emissions) and steel production. The rest of the world, to a large extent (not completely), would like the same levels of prosperity for at least some people, and the same levels of military security, and those things currently appear to need expanded use of fossil fuels and steel production – although some people are trying to do it with renewable energy, but that is hard and a little uncertain.

So we live in such a society, and are psychologically adapted (to the extent we can be) to that society and to its consumerist drives. Many people find their main source of psychological satisfaction in buying products, and this keeps the economy, its production, and its energy usage going. Note I’m not arguing that buying products is necessary for human satisfaction or happiness, but simply that this is encouraged by our social arrangements – politicians and business people get worried if people are not buying things. Buying things often (not always) also encourages ecological destruction and pollution – this is the nature of our lives and social dynamics.

If people accept that climate change and ecological despoliation is occurring and occurring at a rate which is dangerous to their individual and social lives, then they are faced with what we might call an existential crisis. Their ways of living are apparently destroying those ways of living. Most of what they know about how to act is potentially disruptive of that ability to act. Much of what they do to protect their families, is potentially harmful to those families. What apparently produced stability in their worlds, now appears to produce instability, and so on. This realisation can be paralyzing.

This problem is extremely hard to deal with at an individual level. How do you find out what to do? How do you make and take effective actions, without keeping the destruction going? How can you, as an individual, stop the apparently suicidal course of world social order? How do you fight against your source of prosperity? What might result if you do? It may seem too complicated, too horrible.

Deciding what to do may be close to impossible in the circumstances. You may feel stunned, drained, anxious, depressed etc. Conception of the world proves difficult, disruptive and disturbing. There are no standard social guides to what to do. Advice from anyone, is really only conjecture – it cannot be anything else. We have not faced this problem before, on this scale. However, should you decide to act anyway, you then face another, and possibly even greater, social problem.

Faced with the same issues as yourselves, many currently more powerful people have decided to ignore the problem, or decided that it is too difficult or that it does not exist. To their minds solving the problem means potentially destroying their prosperity, potentially destroying their military security, potentially destroying stability, and potentially destroying the relations of power and wealth they apparently benefit from. If climate change is true, and its effects are potentially really bad, and we try and stop it, then it seems that some extremely powerful and large corporations can no longer make money out of selling and burning fossil fuels. Some other companies will have to stop destroying ecologies to get resources. Some companies will have to stop over-fishing, destructive agriculture and forest felling.

If all this is true, then the situation is certainly psychologically dislocating for powerful people, and the established interests of their organisations and paymasters.

Those powerful people will not act on their own. They will team up with each other, to defend their apparent interests. Hence they can spend a lot of money and a lot of effort, trying to convince you that nothing can be done, and nothing should be done. They can politicise climate change, claiming that if you are a real conservative, real Republican, or real pro-business person, you will understand that the science is a conspiracy, and that solutions to climate change are socialist and hence bad (or evil) and so on. They try to appeal to fundamental parts of your social and psychological identity, to make you ignore the problem, support existing modes of wealth and power, and to encourage you to attack those who disagree. Indeed the politicization of climate, makes it much harder for people to talk to each other about it, which reinforces psychological incapacity and silence. After all, to those who recognized climate change, it appears that ‘deniers’ are trying to kill them, through denial. This also does not help calm conversation and psychological health.

Surprisingly rather than attempting to produce solutions (which may have uncertain social consequences), these representatives of established ways tend to denounce all potential solutions – and they sometimes may have a point, not all proposed solutions will be good solutions. However, this behaviour is unusual. Normally they can put forward solutions to problems, even if it is the one solution to all problems, but not here. This problem and this inability paralyses them (and is, in turn, part of their paralysis), and it paralyses a whole body of politics, a whole part of society. They have nothing left other than denunciation, the hope that it won’t be so bad after all, that scientists are wrong, and things can continue, or perhaps the hope that Armageddon is here, and they can do nothing about that, other than walk to their doom/salvation. Again psychology is entangled with social and political life.

However, as things continue to get worse, as fire erupts in forests which have not burnt for thousands of years, as droughts become more prolonged and farms become unproductive, as heat waves last longer, as land glaciers and ice shelves melt, as floods affect living areas, as weird weather keeps hitting, people may become more and more uneasy. They still have little sense of where to go, they have new things to learn and no way of learning. The distress will likely continue to increase, and people become more and more debilitated.

Eventually the psychological social and political systems will have few options

1) They will break down under their own inertia and inability to solve problems.

or

2) The people in power will start thinking that if they don’t do something then everything really is threatened, so they had better act, even if they don’t know what they are doing, or even if preserving existing power relations is more important to them than productive change.

or

3) New people with new ideas will try and take over, and there will be a political war.

or

4) a miracle will occur….. for example a new cheap easy technology may replace fossil fuels – but if it does not replace the social organization that occurs around pollution and destructive extraction will it do more than delay the point of crisis?

In any case, it is likely that realising that both psychological incapacities and capacities have socially and politically active backgrounds may be useful to overcoming some of the incapacities, anxieties and depressions that we face.

The reality is that we are not facing these problems alone and, while we may be encouraged to face them alone by people who want us to do nothing, or by the fear of being denounced by others, there is a necessity of facing the problems together with others; especially if we are going to undo our psychological incapacities. Perhaps discussing the way we feel about climate change with others in small groups might help us to clear away some of the incapacities to act? Then we might find out how to act, or how to promote solutions. Maybe we might even come up with solutions and persuade others to act. When facing such a problem, we need to work together, but we may need to converse together first in a reasonably collaborative and non-condemning environment, so as to build trust. Working together is important as it expands our capacity to act, our capacity to think, and our capacity to effect change, and have an influence in the world.

Turning away from problems because they seem insurmountable, or trying to solve everything by ourselves, is rarely helpful either to our pyscho-social functioning or to our success in solving the problems which produce their distress. This is especially the case, when the problem arises from the social dynamics we live amidst.

Myths of Climate 01: Creation, order and disorder

December 22, 2019

Continues from Climate change and ‘myth’

Introduction

Creation myths organise symbols and form templates for how we think the universe behaves, the nature of order, what is ‘natural’ itself, our place within the world, the process of development, how we can act, and what could be possible. Perhaps not all creation myths do all of this, after all that would be overly ordering, but the potential is there for them to say something about the fundamental nature of the cosmos and the world, and influence our thinking about that world.

The Western Creation myth and order

The most prominent of Western creation myths is in the Bible. It emphasises that the underlying act of creation is ordering, and that disorder is the natural and bad state of things. It sets up the opposition that order is good and disorder is bad. However, everything real and alive is disorderly to some extent, and this sets up a serious problem for Western understanding and action.

In Genesis, after the initial creation, the earth begins as chaos. It was “without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep”.

God makes the world through a process of ordering; through separating out Light from Darkness, Day from Night, “the waters which were under the firmament from the waters which were above the firmament”, the Land from the Sea and so on.

In this myth, without the ordering and sorting actions of God there would be no constructive dynamics and no life. God goes on to make sure that things reproduce after their kind (miyn – portion), in an orderly manner, and so on. 

This myth implies that the world must be ordered by someone to work, that any natural ‘rest’ state is disordered, and that virtue is putting things into order.

This idea that order has to be imposed is so strong that it even constitutes an argument for the existence of God in the standard argument by design which claims that the order we perceive cannot arise by itself so therefore there must be a God doing the ordering.  This whole argument depends on the myth that order requires an orderer, which may not be correct, and without the myth, may not even feel correct. Sometimes people compare the universe to clocks, and say that as clocks have builders so the universe has a builder. Again the same assumption is being made. In reality, we can guess a clock has a builder, because it is completely unlike anything found in nature without humans, so this is not a good argument about things which are found in nature. So if you have ever felt the pull of the argument by design then you feel the pull of this story.

You do not have to believe the myth, to be influenced by its assumptions and implications.

People influenced by this myth may think that without ongoing ordering, and recognised authority, the world will collapse into disorder and original chaos. The myth could also imply that disorder can result from the activity of people who disrupt God’s order. Christianity takes this point and insists that disorder and disobedience are regressions to chaos and evil, (so that disorder is punished eternally in hell) although in the Genesis story there is nothing to indicate the Serpent is evil as such, just disruptive of God’s apparent plan through encouraging thought and disobedience.

People influenced by the myth are likely to also hold that, as there is only one true God, there is only one true order, and are likely to claim they know what that true order is, so other forms of order are really chaos in disguise and must be suppressed. There is one truth, one plan. In this view life becomes a never ending struggle against disorder, and an attempt to suppress whatever seems like disorder. Every sign of disagreement has the potential to become a heresy which is to be suppressed.

For example, while business people and neoliberal politicians frequently claim to want business processes to work without regulation or interference, we nearly always find they have a desire to keep everyone busy and dependent on business, and to order and regulate the world heavily in their favour. We are not offered de-regulation, but a choice between a regulation which might benefit most people, or regulation which might only favour the wealthy and powerful for a short while.

Disorder and unpredictability, can become joined in the binary of good and evil. For example, ‘Conservative’ English author Paul Johnson, in an article discussing climate change demands complete predictability from climate science and Marxism, but seems unconcerned about his ability to predict the result of his favoured ‘good’ policies. For him, what he defines as ‘good’ must already be orderly, and what he defines as bad must be without order.

The Myth channels into the position that disorder arises either from: a) us not doing enough ordering or; b) from the work of those who are evil.

Life = Chaos = Evil

However, living things and living systems, are not completely orderly. Indeed the more alive something is, the less easy it becomes to predict what it will do, the harder it is to control, to keep it in what we have defined as its rightful place. Another way of putting this is that life, naturally, forms complex systems that are beyond our total control and ordering, and that attempts to order living systems (ecologies) will have unintended consequences.

The absence of total order as we expect it in the world, and the idea of the omnipotence of God, reinforces the idea that there is a power of disorder and chaos, which is evil. This force, often called the devil, or Satan, is evil because he epitomises disorder.

While this idea is common, it has been challenged by fiction. One of the intellectual breakthroughs of the Dungeons and Dragons game was to suggest that some demons can be ‘lawful evil’, and exhibit orderly evil – they keep contracts and their word is their bond, although they will look for loopholes. Disordians suggest chaos is part of world order. Michael Moorcock pointed out in his novels that extreme order, like extreme chaos, is equivalent to death. He suggested we need balance, but this idea is still precarious.

In conventional thought, insects and bacteria, however radically different, seem chaotic. They get everywhere. They are out of correct place. They eat things we would rather they didn’t and spread disease we see as disorder. They are vermin, plagues. The only way to solve this problem within our myth, is to kill them. And hence we try and kill them, and disrupt the ecologies that depend on them, creating more disorder…. We become Daleks, exterminating all that is not immediately useful to us, and driven by that extermination, to exterminate even more.

The problem

When our virtuous one true method of ordering starts obviously producing chaos, then there appears to be no way forward; any movement from the perfection of ordering appears to risk disorder. We may feel we have to strengthen our mode of ordering rather than relax it. We need more neoliberalism, applied even harder, rather than less. We need more development, more consumer goods, more growth, rather than less. We need more fossil fuels, rather than less. We may even need more pollution, to free up business creativity, rather than less.

It is likely that our ordering urges produce more disorder, which then promotes more of the failed ordering, which produces more disorder and so on. We cannot try something new, until the social order starts obviously collapsing (and even then we might delay), or new people rise up with new ideas and take control to impose their order.

This is the model of many of our approaches to climate change and, so far, it has spread through the world, bringing disaster with it.

Other styles of myth

This approach does not have to be the only way. Other creation myths might suggest that order will arise if we stop doing things, or may suggest that chaos has a constructive role in the universe, or is not removeable.

In Hesiod’s myth of creation, Khaos, the void, is one of the primal principles, along with Gaea and Eros, that reproduce with each other in order to make the Gods and other forces. In this view of the world, ‘being’ itself is productive, and ordering arises through ongoing interaction and development, which may or may not be harmonious.  Khaos is vital to this process, even if uncomfortable or dangerous.

Elsewhere Hesiod declares that there are two forms of Strife, “wholly different in nature”.  One form of strife fosters war and battle, and the other prods us towards action and culture. This second strife is enabling.  In this myth strife and disorder can be valued and there is no single source of order.  Good people can fail, there is no personal safety net in virtue. 

As a another example, Gregory Bateson reports an Iatumul myth from Papua New Guinea in which the great crocodile Kavwokmali was paddling hard, mixing up the mud and the water.  Then Kevembuangga came along and killed Kavwokmali with his spear and the mud settled and the dry land was formed.  In this myth, making ‘chaos’ takes work, and ‘sorting out’ occurs if that work is stopped.  People with this myth might aim to remove the sources of disturbance and allow order to settle out or emerge.   They may be more motivated to surrender their orderings in able to allow the ecological disturbances of climate change to settle down themselves once the work of disordering has been stopped.

While some Chinese Creation stories suggest that the myriad things were blended together and needed to find their way out of chaos, the stories are not uniform. Taoist philosophy has a different approach to order and disorder, which it is useful to elaborate. The West has little of the Taoist sense of working with nature to find its own level.

The most well known Chinese story about chaos (hun-tun) comes from the Chang tzu and is roughly as follows:

The Ruler of the Northern Ocean was Shu (Heedless) the Ruler of the Southern Ocean was Hu (Sudden), and the Ruler of the Center was Chaos (hun tun). Shu and Hu were continually meeting in the land of Chaos, who treated them very well. They consulted together how they might repay his kindness, and said, ‘Men all have seven orifices for the purpose of seeing, hearing, eating, and breathing, while this (poor) Ruler alone has not one. Let us try and make them for him’.  Accordingly they dug one orifice in him every day; and at the end of seven days Chaos died. [Chuang Tzu, Chapter Seven, Quoted from, The Texts of Taoism, trans. James Legge (New York: Dover, 1962), 1:266-267.]

Legge takes the standard Western here and writes: “But surely it was better that Chaos should give place to another state. ‘Heedless’ and ‘Sudden’ did not do a bad work” [ChuangTzu, p. 267]. 

But the fairly obvious point is that, trying to impose an order, which seems to be beneficial elsewhere, can bring something else to an end. Through their well-intentioned ordering Hun-Tun, Shu and Hu killed a being who had treated them kindly, and who provided a place for them to meet. Through rigid conceptualisation and putting fixed boundaries in place we loose touch with reality – we no longer flow with the tao.  The consequences were not necessarily good for Shu and Hu, not to mention Hun-Tun.

Legge’s translation of the names as ‘Heedless’ and ‘Sudden’ (although there are other possible translations), suggests the killers did not pay attention to unexpected consequences or adjust their actions according to those results, they just acted without thought or feeling according to their preconceptions.

Taoist philosophy, seems to posit that the natures of things are inherently un-understandable, and thus must be allowed to express themselves with their own dynamic. They have an intelligence or dynamic which cannot be completely expressed in language – the ‘tao which can be tao-ed is not the ongoing tao’.  Tao is process, it is not static and thus cannot be encapsulated by static or unchanging categories.  This notion has resonance with what we might mean by saying that the world is a complex system. Thus:

The actual world presumed by Taoism is anarchic since it is without archai or principii serving as determining sources of order distinct from the order which they determine. The units of existence comprising nature are thus self-determining in the most radical sense (Hall 1974: 274). [although we can be skeptical about the phrase ‘units of existence’ as there may be no unchanging atoms of any relevance, but this shows the difficult of exact expression.]

As everything is constantly in a state of transition from one state to another, the universe is flux rather than expressible in fixed reasoned categories (Hall 1974: 275-6). Similarly the interplay of the ‘principles’, reminds us that nothing is entirely bright, active and ordering (yang), and nothing is entirely dark, passive and ordered (yin).  An excess of yang produces yin and an excess of yin produces yang. 

Sufferings and harm arise from imposing willed action upon the flow of tao without sensitivity to its flow, its existence, its intelligence, or its ‘needs’, just as Shu and Hu, imposed regularity on Hun-tun.

My understanding of the Confucian text Doctrine of the Mean (which may be wrong) suggests that the best we can hope for is to produce temporary islands of order in the chaos and flow, and that (being all we can do) is enough. This is not a bad thing, this is the nature of things. Eternal Order does not arise from human action, therefore we watch for the conditions to make order, and let that order pass when the conditions change. We do the best we can, attentively, and that might be enough.

Conclusion

Western myths clearly distinguish order from disorder. Ordering is creative and good. Disorder is bad. The myths do not encourage a conceptualisation of disorder as arising from beneficial acts of ordering. The myths do not encourage us to consider the existence of what seems to be beneficial disorder, or to conceive disorder as a necessary part of the process of life. If bad things happen then: a) there is a disordering force working against us, or; b) the ordering is to be classed as evil, rather than: c) the beneficial order had unintended, or unexpected, consequences which have been ignored because of that order’s supposed benefits. This formulation is particularly problematic when we are faced with the likelihood that complex systems are not orderable, and that living systems are not orderable.

These mythic templates do not help us to realized that unintended consequences are almost inevitably going to arise from our actions, and so it is hard to change direction. It is difficult to attend to the unintended. We tend to stick with the harmful acts that have been successful so far, because they must be good or, on the other hand, perhaps we aim overthrow the whole corrupt existing order because it must be ineluctably bad.

Never-the-less, there are ways of relating to disorder (even if they are not immediately available to us), which inculcate different ways of behaving and understanding. Perhaps knowing these other stories and feeling their resonance might change something in the ways we can approach the problems we face, as when the order of fossil fuels, which produces the orders of our societies, also generates the disorders of climate change.

Perhaps we can learn to work with the flow of the cosmos, and with the unintended consequences we generate, rather than to persist in destruction.

Continues in Myths of Climate 02: Eden and the Fall.

Its not an emergency…. What he did on his holidays

December 20, 2019

Interesting. The Australian Financial Review reports that “the Prime Minister’s minders ordered the media not to report that he had taken leave…” in the middle of a national bush fire emergency in which, in two weeks, over half of Australia’s yearly carbon emissions have been released, while refusing to talk to fire chiefs, or even recognising that there was a problem…. ‘Its not climate change. Its not climate change. How dare you suggest its climate change. How disrespectful is that….’

Weirdly, you might have thought the AFR would be a bit annoyed about this instruction, but they are calmly and kindly understanding. It was to protect the PM from “churlish criticism” and “undergraduate outrage on social media.”

Yes , it’s an “unremarkable holiday” and “everyone needs to take time out to recharge and reconnect with family,” especially a “hard-working Prime Minister” who is just like us, “Just a suburban dad.”

The problem with this, is that we all know that if a Labor PM bailed out on a major emergency, or if people were told not to report that, then the AFR would be howling for that PM’s head.

This is especially the case when we know his office at least twice denied the PM was in Hawai’i. They lied, but that is apparently not a problem.

Its Trump 101 reaching Australia.

Another minor thing, is that the instruction/request, assuming it existed (and why would the AFR, of all people, report it if it had not happened to them?), appears to assume that the media would largely treat the whole issue gently, and that the news would be suppressed. They assumed that, with the mainstream media onside, as usual, there would be no problem. There would also be no problem from the Labor Party, who have been consistently gentle about the Coalition. This was largely correct as the Right receives protection as standard.

However, a few outlets reported the issue (The New Daily, being the most vocal and breaking the story as far as I know) and it was taken up by ordinary people who then made it news through the derided social media, and they made it news in precisely the way that the Government and the PM, did not want it to be news. Some media clearly tried to play the issue down, others initially ignored it, and then under pressure from letters and fuss, decided to see it as worthy of discussion.

Whether this will be the change point in media representation of the government, in the way that Tony Abbott’s attempt to knight Prince Phillip and block gay marriage became a change point, it is too early to say. After all Abbott had to raise an huge amount of resistance before that change happened. But the politics of this is interesting to consider.

[I’m not linking to the AFR, because why give them clicks?]

A Second Jeremiad on Neoliberalism and Climate Change

December 17, 2019

As a reminder: Neoliberals are those people who consider the capitalist market the most important thing in life, with the implied consequences that markets always produce the optimum results, wealthy capitalists are obviously the best rulers and the State exists primarily to make and enforce the laws that allow established capitalists to operate profitably.

Neoliberalism corrupts culture, because culture is seen in terms of profit and power, and hence as produced through the falsehoods, advertising, hype, and PR which support profit and power. Only what is profitable and what contributes to plutocracy is valuable and good. Because Climate Change challenges some sources of power and profit, it becomes an unsolvable cultural and social problem, to be ignored, avoided or hidden for as long as possible.

Neoliberal politicians have no place for deep thinking, or hard virtue in facing reality, only thee word slogans, obfuscation and the promotion of established businesses. National pride is used to build racism, and loyalty to the corporate project. Economic theory is used to justify poisoning people and polluting environments, because any regulation of big business is foolishness and anathema. Culture wars are used to entrench their ‘common sense’, and to show that thinking will be excoriated and punished – doubly useful because if scientists or other experts say that neoliberal policies are rubbish and achieve the opposite of what they claim, then they are to be dismissed as part of the culture wars. The objections of others to their fantasies, are branded as politically evil, not attempts at trying to deal with reality, and people on the right know they face punishment should they turn. There is no need for neoliberals to listen to the opposition. Liberty of big business is to be preserved over your ‘accidentally’ dead bodies, and stultified minds.

Neoliberal inability is best demonstrated by climate change and ecological destruction. Rather than face up to the growing problems, to the growing knowledge we have about these problems or even to public demand, they run away.

They are faced with the problem that powerful and wealthy companies make massive profits out of selling fuels which are poisonous, through mining which is ecologically destructive, and through emissions which disrupt the global climate system. As profitable, it is taken for granted that these fuels are good. Challenging those fuels being burnt is evil, because it would threaten profit, or threaten the expansion of “free markets” and corporate domination elsewhere in the world.

There is nothing else to think, or which can be allowed to be thought.

So the problem is politicised. We get neoliberals claiming that climate change is a socialist plot – because people on the left see the potential desctruction of Western civilisation as a problem. We are told that it means the end of capitalism, when it probably means that some businesses have to change their ways of gaining profit, and adapt to reality. We are told that because the left has proposed solutions, the right is justifiably reluctant to propose its own solutions.

Neoliberals both cannot, and have not, proposed any solutions. They have managed to make this lack of thought and action part of their culture, because their culture is not geared to reality, but to maintaining existing profit and power. Neoliberal theory appears to have no way of beginning to think about this problem, other than hoping the market will solve it in time, and bear the cost of developing extensive new technology, even while they continue to pour subsidies into the fossil fuel industry to corrupt the market. This is the simple truth of the matter.

Hence in Australia, the East Coast is burning because of extended drought and high temperature. Sydney’s particulate pollution exceeds the recognized hazardous levels by a factor of 11. The neoliberals made the fires worse by ignoring warnings, cutting back on experienced fire fighting crew, refusing to plan for extended conflagrations, and refusing (and still refusing) to talk with fire chiefs. The Prime Minister refuses to go to the fire fronts, and instead apparently goes on holiday, to a place with breathable air (its secret you see).

[If you are Australian, you know that all previous prime ministers, including the neoliberals, would have been seen at the front, and would have emergency consultations, because it was their duty, even if they did nothing as a result. Now we have a marketing man in charge, and there is no duty. It is a sad day indeed, when one feels nostalgia for Tony Abbott.]

They are full of blame and displacement. The situation has nothing to do with them. They can take no responsibility, perhaps because they model their favoured form of social organization, the corporation, which is designed to avoid personal responsibilities and be potentially immortal.

Neoliberals misdirect as a matter of course. They claim it was the hostility of the greens to preventative burning that caused the fires, when that is not a Greens’ policy, Greens have marginal influence on government action, and in NSW the fire service exceeded government targets for preventative burning in a shorter period of time than expected (because the suitable periods of time are shrinking due to climate change). It was the fault of criminal people lighting fires, but this always happens, it just so happened that the drought and climate change made the consequences of fire-lighting worse. This is not exactly unpredictable. They say we always have fires in Australia. This is true, but these seem to be worse than we have ever had; instead of Black Friday, or Black Saturday, we have Black November and December, and the days of real heat and wind are still to come. Some of them still say climate change is not real, that all climate scientists are deluded – anything but think neoliberals might be the ones with a problem.

We have a country which is imperiled by drought. The drought is the worse I have seen. Even in the areas around Berrima, which are nearly always green the fields are dry and brown. However, in these drought regions some mining companies have unlimited access to water, or expect to be able to continue to take water from farmers and country towns, because they are big business and that is how it works. This is apparently not a problem for neoliberals.

Ecological destruction is not a problem for neoliberals; indeed sometimes it seems a triumph, as if they are transcending reality in their fantasy, and giving mortality and threat the boot, by producing this destruction.

Is this because they think enough wealth (the marker of proficiency and virtue) will save them? And if the rest of the people suffer, then, that is not a problem, as those people have shown they are not virtuous by not being rich enough to survive? Ordinary people are just labour-fodder to them?

Neoliberals seem paralysed by reality, because it goes against their culture of hoping that the market and big business can solve every real problem there is. They live in a world of delusion, of positive thinking, of PR, Hype, and advertising; in other words they live in a culture of lies.

Its too late to stop climate change

December 12, 2019

It is now probably too late to stop climate change.

It was not too late to stop it 10 years ago. We could have succeeded if there had not been massive political resistance to stopping it. Somewhere between then and now, we probably have passed a tipping point or two. Methane is being released from the seas and the Tundras. Forests, which were supposedly too wet to burn are burning. The Antarctic ice shelf is breaking up. Land ice is melting in Greenland. The Northwest Passage is becoming navigable. Towns and cities are without water supplies.

While we cannot stop change, disruption and chaos, we still have the option of making the results even worse, or holding the worse at bay. We also have the option of preparing for the worse, so we can deal with it as best we may, and diminish the damage. This is the best we can now aim for: mitigation and preparation.

Currently the East Coast of Australia is on fire. One of the reasons for the extent of the Bushfires is because Right Wing governments decided climate change was impossible or would not have an effect for years. They cut back experienced staff, and refused to prepare. They still seem to be holding back on helping firefighters. Even now they are trying to blame the extent and ferocity of the fires on anything other than climate change, and they are still arguing that we should increase emissions because it is profitable.

This is a classic example of how not to face a problem. They have walled themselves up. They cannot admit they were mistaken, and that they need to change. They have either never been able to propose a solution or wanted to propose a solution, and so politicised the problem so as to make doing nothing look righteous.

The Labor opposition is not much better, with their leader explicitly declaring the party in favour of coal exports as they make some money and we might as well make it. Neither of the main parties seems up to the challenge, although at least Labor might admit there is a problem. So, expecting the parties to change in time to stop total disaster, is almost certainly futile.

People who want to survive in a relatively stable society have got to keep fighting for us to prepare for the worse and to diminish the possibility of the worse, and they will have to fight inside and outside the political parties. Otherwise life will become extremely difficult, and keep getting harder and more unpredictable.

We may no longer be able to stop climate change, but we can prepare for it, and try to stop making it even worse. Hence a active climate movement is still necessary, and perhaps more necessary than ever.