Posts Tagged ‘economics’

Pandemic and Climate Action

April 1, 2020

The pandemic has shown the world is quickly able to organise against crisis. Charles Eisenstein claims the pandemic “breaks the addictive hold of normality.” Others propose that the coronavirus has “killed neoliberalism,” changed the practical ideology of neoliberal governments, or changed the world. Neoliberal governments have decided to support workers laid off during the pandemic, even casual workers. Retired politicians in Australia, such as ex-state premier Bob Carr, and ex-leader of the opposition, John Hewson, have been agitating for climate action following the response to the virus. George Monbiot points to the growth of bottom up, and often localised, support actions by ordinary people, as showing that communal processes are not dead. Electricity consumption is going down in some places, air flights have been cancelled, oil remains unburnt despite its low price, CO2 emissions are falling, showing what a low carbon future might look like and so on – although it is not certain that it will be long term.

Many are asking whether these systemic changes can be carried into action on climate. To explore this question we must look at the differences between pandemic, and climate, action.  Some of this may sound cynical, but it is also plausible, and given we do not (and cannot) have full knowledge of what is happening, plausibility may act as a tool to help us uncover the problems we face.

Differences

Monetary

Firstly, few organisations stand to make billions out of ignoring the virus. Cruise ships and airlines are losing money, and therefore could downplay the crisis, but they are fighting against fears that the virus comes from outside (encouraged by right wing politicians and media – the “Chinese virus” etc.), and from travellers being easily identified by authorities as infection vectors, so this is difficult. In Australia, Virgin air, despite not being profitable for seven years, is requesting a $1.4 billion government loan to get it through the pandemic. Qantas has argued that if Virgin receives this money it should “get A$4.2 billion in funds because its revenue is three times larger”. In the US, the government has offered airlines $US29 billion in payroll grants, $US3 billion to contractors and 29 billion in loans. Tony Webber, the former chief economist of Qantas, said “Every airline around the world needs help, it’s not just Qantas and it’s not just Virgin, they will run out of cash eventually.” So airlines have an interest in supporting recognition of the pandemic as it will help keep them in business 

On the other hand, many powerful, wealthy and socially central organisations (fossil fuel, mining and energy companies, car manufacturers, etc.) profit out of downplaying the climate crisis, and may lose financially from recognising it (for instance subsidising fossil fuels would look odd, if governments recognised these fuels are destroying us).

Disruption and pollution

The pandemic disrupts ordinary life styles, while pollution, ecological destruction and fossil fuels help to continue these modes of living, until it’s too late. Pollution and ecological destruction are also frequently less visible, or easier to hide away, than sickness. It is common for pollution and destruction to primarily affect the poor or be located away from large influential populations who might notice it. Coal mines are rarely in central public parks.

Escape

Wealthy and powerful people are less likely to think that they can completely escape the pandemic through their wealth and power; they may even say coronavirus does not care about wealth from within a bathtub with floating rose petals. Well-known people like Prince Charles, Boris Johnson and Australian politician Peter Dutton have caught the disease (as have presumably some of those close to them), although, as none of them have apparently died, they might come to think it has been exaggerated. Doctors have died. Even if you can escape to the high-seas in a well-armed private yacht, you still have to come to land to take in food, water and possibly disease, and you may need treatment.

While the wealthy cannot escape completely the disease will affect poorer people more severely. In the US because they cannot afford health care, or time off, and elsewhere because the essential services workers have to interact with other people and live in more crowded conditions. The rich can isolate much easier.

Precedent

We have dealt with pandemics before, the historical guidelines for action are quite clear, and we know how bad they can get. We have precedents for action on disease, but we only have recent, largely unfamiliar, models for climate change and no heritage of action. Action on disease is habitual and uncontroversial, action on climate is not, as there is no routine.

The timeline and future of a pandemic is pressing and short. Intense immediate action is required, but will probably, although not certainly, be over in a year or less. The timeline within which climate change will become an ongoing crisis is absolutely uncertain, and is not marked by a brief agreed upon period of transition from good to bad, and back again. Most people are able to behave as if climate crisis will be at least 50 years away (rather than that we may have already passed, or be passing, the tipping points), so there is apparently no reason to discomfort ourselves or engage in major political struggles against power and wealth elites now. It is easy, and less painful, to postpone action.

Command and Control

As Charles Eisenstein points out, pandemics can be handled within a ‘command and control’ power structure. Violence and penalties are implemented mainly against the general populace rather than the power elites themselves. Again this is a familiar route and, for some politicians, suspending parliament or democratic process presents them with an opportunity to extend their power, as in Hungary, decrease opposition and bring in business as in Australia, or delay elections and hinder public protests [1], [2], [3],[4] – it is hard to protest if people cannot gather in groups larger than two as in NSW. The chances of absolutely unexpected or unknown consequences from these authoritarian actions seem relatively low. With climate change, the elites resist, the chance of unintended consequences is high, and we are not sure how to proceed, or even if we can proceed, without long term disruption. Command and control is not always the best way of dealing with complex or ‘wicked’ problems, so we would have to develop new modes of acting, which adds to the difficulty of agreement.

The technology for pandemics is generally clear. Quarantine, medical treatment and working on vaccines. We do not have to hope for major breakthroughs to deal with the problem. Climate technologies are new and expensive substitutes for already functional technologies which are strongly tied into modernist power, wealth and energy structures. Climate technologies are resisted by those tied to established technologies, and are not always easy to implement without disrupting more people, as when agricultural land is taken for solar panels. The unintended consequences of these technologies are largely unknown, even if the dire unintended consequences of established technologies are known.

Mess of Information

While lots of disinformation and misinformation circulates about the pandemic, with a possible tendency to wander off into political polarisation, or even US vs China slugfests (apparently to diffuse blame for one’s own group’s, or President’s failings), there are currently no major media organisations, or corporately sponsored think-tanks, promoting an anti-medical agenda. They may want to distract from any role they played in helping the initial situation get out of hand, agitate for special compensation or make political capital out of the aspects of the response, but they are not banking on building a political alliance out of pretending the pandemic is unreal (at least not yet). Even Fox News changed its initial tune, possibly after people in the organisation became ill – although it now seems to be trying to exonerate Trump by implying China is the real source of the US’s problems [1], [2], [3], even if other countries are doing much better in the same situation.

One of the main ways of making money from the pandemic, or attempting to lower fear, is through promoting fake or untested medicines [1], [2], [3], but most large businesses are aware that this could lead them into financial, or legal, trouble. So it is mainly small concerns that benefit from this, but they gain no benefit in denying the pandemic.

An interesting perspective on disinformation is visible through the way that President Trump has changed his stance. His initial reaction was to deny there was a problem, state that it would be over quickly, that criticism of him (or alarm at the virus) was a hoax by the Democratic Party, that it was no worse than the flu, and that everything would be over by Easter. Now he is claiming that “I’ve always known this is a real — this is a pandemic. I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic”, and if there are less than 200,000 deaths he will have done a good job. “The president repeatedly asserted that millions would have died if he hadn’t stepped in.” He may have made this change by seeing the effects of the virus on hospitals in Queens NY, and infecting people he knows, or because people from Fox told him that there was a problem. This does indicate importance of personal reference, and the vague possibility that he might be able to change track on climate change with equal speed.

Ecological Disruption and Economics

A major problem revealed by the pandemic is how important ecological destruction is to the workings of our system, despite talk of nature sending us a message. In the US the Environmental Protection Authority has announced it will not be policing pollution because of the outbreak (but see this), and rules for fuel efficient vehicles are to be scrapped. The crisis has not stopped, or slowed, the taking away of Native American land, or stopped Amazon’s anti-union, anti-worker’s rights activity [and 1]. “America’s wind and solar industries have been left out of a $US2 trillion economic stimulus package released by the federal government” leading to job losses. Various companies see the pandemic as an excuse to bring back ‘one-use’ plastic bags. Kentucky, South Dakota and West Virginia have taken the opportunity to outlaw disruptions of ‘critical’ infrastructure‘, which includes oil and gas fields, through protest or ‘riot’. Building the Keystone pipeline will begin, despite the dangers of pandemic, with massive investments and loans from the Alberta government, and was welcomed in Montana as bringing jobs shut down by the pandemic, as if contagion did not apply to construction work. One paper claimed that

The construction of the pipeline is deemed critical infrastructure by the US Department of Homeland Security and therefore is allowed to continue as planned provided measures are implemented and followed for safety under current orders.

Other promotions of US fossil fuel continued.

[T]he Interior Department wrapped up an auction to sell oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico, offering up some 78 million offshore acres ― an area roughly the size of New Mexico. It proved to be a bust, bringing in approximately $93 million for just shy of 400,000 acres, the smallest total for an offshore auction since 2016…..

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, a panel voted 2-1 to rubber-stamp construction of both the Jordan Cove liquefied natural gas export terminal in Oregon’s already-polluted Coos Bay, and the 230-mile Pacific Connector Pipeline. The decision, The Oregonian reported, stunned Oregon Gov. Kate Brown (D), who warned that the state had not yet approved permitting in the midst of a national emergency.

Huffington Post 21st March 2020

Former US Energy Secretary Rick Perry warned that warned that US fossil fuel companies were under threat of collapse due to lack of demand and flooding of cheap oil imports.

I’m telling you, we are on the verge of a massive collapse of an industry that we worked awfully hard over the course of the last three or four years to build up to the number one oil and gas producing country in the world, giving Americans some affordable energy resources

Fox News 1 April 2020

Perry also warned of the collapse of the shale gas industry, and suggested government intervention. Other commentators say that the shale gas and fracking industry in the US has never made a profit: “companies spent $189 billion more on drilling and other capital expenses over the past decade than they generated from selling oil and gas.” Fox news reports that the fossil fuel industry and “our energy workers” are supporting the fight against the pandemic by providing energy, and they are threatened by ingratitude and any Green New Deal. So it is conceivable crisis money may be used to defend established corporations against the consequences of destructive and foolish investments, or their refusal to branch out into new forms of energy or more environmentally friendly business. Below-cost oil could also undermine energy transitions.

A $2tn US coronavirus relief package will dole out billions…. and offer low-interest loans that fossil fuel companies could compete for – without requiring any action to stem the climate crisis.

The Guardian 27 March 2020

Despite the ideology that the free market comes first, neoliberals have always been prepared to bail out and support or build up, established, and well connected, wealthy companies, and it seems like the justification for a intensification of that process is beginning. Therefore, we should probably check all the spending of taxpayers’ money to make sure it is not just the normal transfer from ordinary taxpayers upwards.

The trend of defending the past is not just manifested in the US under Trump. China issued permits for more new coal-fired energy stations in the first three weeks of March 2020 than for all of 2019 and has halved subsidies for renewables to balance the budget. The virus has slowed solar installation in Australia’s Victoria. In NSW, an Independent Planning Commission inquiry into the Narrabri gas fields will be launched despite difficulties for audiences or public participation. Coal mining has been approved under Sydney’s reservoirs. So far in NSW, building of toll-roads does not seem to have been affected by quarantine restrictions. The Federal Government is “agreeing to stimulate demand for a fossil fuel” to keep the price stable. The International Energy Agency has warned that political action to deal with the virus could derail the energy transition.

Perhaps the pandemic has been used to cover these economic actions, perhaps they are seen as necessary to recover ‘ordinary destructive order’ after the pandemic. Whatever the case, it does seem that without a lot of political pressure and action from ordinary people, the historical devotion to environmental destruction will continue, even though the pandemic has demonstrated the possibility of enacting radical and rapid social and economic change, largely for the public good.

Conclusion

So we know the modern neoliberal state can act swiftly and intervene in the Economy and life, but what have we learnt of the difficulties of acting on climate?

We have to be prepared for resistance from wealthy and powerful elites, who can pretend that their mode of destruction is necessary for the continuance of contemporary life and its improvement. For them, postponing the appearance of crisis is important for contemporary life to continue, as is postponing the realisation that climate change and ecological destruction affect everyone. If the economy is destroyed through environmental destruction, there is little in the way of further wealth production.

Bringing realisation of the crisis into the lives of the power and wealth elites is important, as they generally see prosperity as arising from their actions rather than destruction, and the media tends to reinforce this, only partially accurate, attitude. The crisis affects them, and their businesses, and they should not expect to be bailed out, when they fail.

Everyone, even the wealthy, is vulnerable to this ecological destruction. This is an important message. It is also important to make people aware of the harsh normality of this irreparable destruction rather than to participate in its cover-up. People should be encouraged to keep protesting against things like the Sydney coal mines and the destruction of water tables, online and through letters, even if they cannot gather safely together. They need to keep trying to hold governments and businesses, accountable for their actions and their spending, whatever is happening elsewhere, and to keep organising themselves to provide support for each other, both physical and emotional. We cannot assume that money will be spent primarily to defend people rather than big business.

Personal experience seems able to change misinformation. When the problem hits misinformers and the problem affects them, their associates or their local areas, then change can come. From Trump and Fox, we know people can do a u-turn while pretending otherwise. There is no point berating them for their previous misinformation, but there is a point to encouraging the spread of reality and accurate information. This does not stop overseas interests from trying to interfere and disrupt connective action, but it will lessen their impact.

There is a romantic glory in fighting against established power. This is the case with fighting for climate action and needs to be made more of. At the moment, the romantic vision is commandeered by the power and wealth elites, in an unlikely pretense of fighting against all powerful science and socialism.

We need to explore how previous civilisations fought against ecological destructions and learn from them, whether they failed or not. This gives us experience we don’t have.

Managerial theory is finally trying to get beyond command and control, to encourage bottom up organisation of the kind that is occurring spontaneously in the pandemic. People naturally function in co-operation as well as competition, but our neoliberal societies discourage co-operation unless it is organised from above, probably because of the fear of revolution or loss of elite property – after all property is a fiction usually imposed by violence and the right to exclude others, and if people refuse to co-operate with the violence and exclusion, then property could get shared and the profit appropriated be diminished.

Community democracy and self-organisation is important to fighting environmental destruction. Few people want their own living spaces to be poisoned. Neoliberalism dismisses this resistance out of hand as NIMBYism (unless it is a new industry like windfarms), in effect saying that corporate profit justifies the destruction. But if you can’t object to your own way of life and your environment being destroyed, when can you object? and if you can collectively organise your environment to be more pleasant and liveable and sustainable, and safe from corporate exploitation and destruction, is that not good?

Finally, most people do not realise the ways that contemporary forms of economic activity destroy their home. This, to me, seems a major point of understanding. Once people get this reality, and it is a reality, then they can truly start to wonder if there is another way of conduct manufacture and trade, which retains freedom to trade with lack of permission to destroy and imperil everyone. Human logic, and civilisational experience, implies there is. So we need to discover the rules by which this new game can be played – and it probably comes down to fluid democracy again, rather than to command and control businesses devoted to authoritarian ways of proceeding.

So climate action is connected to freedom to live, and to freedom to act with others, and by oneself, without being imperiled by corporate power, or by the governments that support that power over the people.

Problems with Shale Oil in the US

February 9, 2020

This is a summary of a series of blog posts by another writer. He is trying to sell you ‘precious metals’ as a hedge against economic collapse, but his analysis of a coming crisis in US shale oil production seems highly plausible…

He suggests that activity in the world’s economy has been driven by cheap energy availability, and this has largely been provided by cheap US shale oil.

Nowadays, it appears that Peak Mainstream oil is already here. Each year the world needs to replace 3 million barrels per day of supply no longer provided from mature and declining oil fields at the same time as meeting growth in demand for oil. Any growth in contemporary world oil consumption was allowed by the US shale.

However, the decline in US shale oil production is even more dramatic than that for mature mainstream oil wells. The top 4 U.S. shale oil fields have suffered a 44% decline in their rate of production in less than a year, between Dec 2018 to Oct 2019.

It will take a massive amount of investment spending and thousands of new wells to offset these losses in production from shale oil, and keep the output stable. As the easily available shale oil has by now been taken (as businesses generally go for the easy targets first), it is probable that new shale oil will also require a lot more energy to retrieve. The ratio of Energy Return to Energy Input (EREI) will be much lower, so overall energy availability will be lower.

The spending and oil output is almost certainly ungeneratable, and unsustainable, in any kind of financial system. This situation is made worse as the author has argued elsewhere, because shale oil has largely survived on borrowed money, with investors hoping for long term stable production which has not eventuated. There will likely be large scale losses of this borrowed money, which could start a general financial collapse.

Lack of production also means that oil based energy collapse is extremely likely, and this will probably reinforce the financial collapse.

It is also likely to make the necessary transition into renewables harder, although it might ‘help’ through unplanned and catastrophic degrowth.

Problems for Renewables: Apparent costs and ‘lock-in’.

January 18, 2020

Costs of building new renewable energy systems, are difficult to estimate accurately, as are the costs for fossil fuel and nuclear energy generation.

One of the problems of capitalism is that it functions through hype, exaggeration, advertising, PR and so on. The fight over information is part of the fight over sales and subsidies. Subsidies are frequently ignored as part of the costs, or claimed not to be costs, in order to make products look cheaper, or to keep the subsidies from people’s objection. People can also exagerate benefits of particular innovations, or promised innovations, to get research funding or for commerical purposes. This activity makes it more likely for people to hold off purchase, until a product is ready for market, or to purchase an existing product. Few decisions in this arena can be entirely rational, or based on guaranteed useful data.

This is to be expected. While communication is not possible without the possibility of deception, social systems can increase that probability or, possibly, diminish it. We have a problematic system. People have political and economic reasons to misrepresent all kinds of ‘facts’. In our system fake news about almost everything is absolutely normal – especially if the fakery is already established, or supports established power and energy relations. Consequently it is hard to get accurate figures on anything to do with sales of large projects.

We can only look at appearances, and these seem reasonably clear.

In Australia coal mines often depend on taxpayer subsidy. We build rail lines, roads, and offer them free or cheap water at the expense of farmers and towns. We don’t insist upon them rehabilitating the mines; just a few trees around the mine edge, to obscure the views of passers-by, might be enough, if even that much gets done. We don’t require there to be any expenditure to clean up the ongoing pollution they issue. They can destroy our water table and water supply and that is just considered bad luck.

The jobs provided by coal mines are minimal. Adani has a royalty holiday, and Barnaby Joyce even wanted taxpayers to give Adani 1 billion dollars for more or less nothing in return except loss of water from the water gift. As it happens, the IEEFA estimate that Adani is already “set to receive over $4.4 billion of tax exemptions, deferrals and capital subsidies from Australian taxpayers,” assuming a 30 year life for the mine.

In effect, with coal, we seem to pay people to take our minerals and destroy our environment. At the least they get a lot of earnings which are tax free.

Similar events seem true of coal based energy. Burning coal not only produces climate change but it also poisons people and ecologies. I guess we have been using coal for so long that we don’t recognise the dangers. As well, coal gets government support for it to be locked-in. In the US Trump is apparently trying to cut pollution standards to make coal more economic. Death and illness is of no concern.

In Australia, we also face the problem that most coal generation is nearing the end of its life, by 2030 55% of coal fired energy stations will be over 40 years old, and heading into unreliability. We need to build replacement sources of energy, or we will face large-scale shortages of energy. This is simply fact.

Renewables are now said to be, generally, either competitive with coal or cheaper than coal, although there is debate [1], [2], [3], [4].

In Australia, it’s obvious they are more than competitive, because the government has to keep talking about taxpayer subsidy for new coal energy, or talking about forcing people to keep old coal fired energy stations going. No one wants to build coal energy stations on their own bat. The government also appears to have guaranteed to purchase electricity from Gas, to get it going. On the other hand, heaps of companies in Australia seem to want to build renewable farms, and this is despite considerable regulatory inhibition and ambiguity. (The same appears true in the US where, according to Bloomberg, “a total of $55.5 billion were spent in the sector last year, an increase of 28%”, which is apparently a record). In Australia one of our main problems with renewables seems to be government regulation, the political power of the coal mining industry, and ongoing tax concessions and subsidies for coal. Some this regulation is left over from the kind of regulation which helped centralised coal development, and now promotes coal lock-in and hinders coal-exit.

If we balanced the competition by removing the hostile regulation and subsidies for dirty energy, it would probably help renewable growth.

Whatever the case might be here, countries which sell coal seem to be offering subsidies to third world countries to get them locked into coal based energy production, and slow down any renewable transformation. If places never use much coal, then they may not miss it. This is economic power attempting to structure the energy market to give it continuing markets and profits without having to change. Coal companies are fighting for their profits and that involves politics as part of their market action. We should assume that coal producers act similarly in Australia.

Another problem is that network costs are important. It is frequently objected that renewables require new grids and this is costly. A problem we face in Australia is private ownership of the grid by companies who are reluctant to invest in getting the grid to places where the renewable energy, which competes with their energy supply, can be built. This is a lock-in produced by ownership. Ownership also gives power to influence markets.

Existing fossil fuel generation has a legacy of networks which were largely paid for by the taxpayers and then sold on. This should diminish coal costs, and produce lock-in to energy generation at particular locations. However, given that coal energy stations are not being rebuilt or renewed, it does not seem to.

Other forms of energy have the same network problems, but they seem to be ignored. Every time a new gasfield comes online, pipelines have to be developed, and that does not seem a problem to those objecting to networks for new renewable sites.

If governments took climate change seriously, then building new powerlines in consultation with the industry, would probably be the way to go. It would be costly, but still less costly than doing nothing, and could probably be helped to be paid for by removal of subsidies for fossil fuels.

Storage is also a cost issue, but in some places you have to include storage as part of the development, so (in those cases) it is fixed in. Also if we spent more money on R&D we might develop simple cheap solutions (we might not, but we are more likely to). The Scotts are apparently using heavy weights suspended in deep pits. [see also] This works like pumped hydro without the need for water – which would be a bonus in Australia.

Another objection to renewables, in terms of cost, is that they are intermittant, so we have to overproduce to get a stable supply. But if we do over-produce, this is not necessarily a problem. Over production is useful as, for example, when excess power can be directed into making hydrogen as a portable back up fuel, and shut down when heavy demand returns.

People are still arguing that nuclear energy is cheap and effective, but often do not include the expenses of decommission in that cost. But as I have argued before, with nukes, the big trouble is that no-one in the West seems to want to build nuclear, because it is not economical, and most of the nuke companies have gone out of business, or gone out of the business.

The UK government had to guarantee massive electricity prices and taxpayer funded indemnity at Hinkley Point, because no one would insure it. It’s also running massively over budget.

While I could be wrong, I am not aware of anyone prepared to build fossil fuel or nuclear energy supplies, in Australia, without massive subsidy, guaranteed prices (as with the gas energy mentioned above) or even subsidy and diminishment of safety requirements. This indicates to me, that both of these sources are less economic than they once were, and this is before you add in the costs of the ecological destruction or climate change they generate. In practice Renewables are ready to go, especially with a little network planning, or admission that the market does not solve every urgent problem in the right amount of time.

Ultimately we cannot absolutely expect the kinds of service we have now. If we keep on with fossil fuels, and ecological destruction the situation is likely to become untenable – we are already destroying the Earth’s carrying capacity. We have to shift to another source of power. Nuclear does not seem viable. That leaves renewables, which are not yet built in anything like the required amounts, and which may not be continuous, although they can be made close to continuous.

Only thirty or forty or so years ago, power black outs were quite common in Australia, and we managed to live with them. So we can probably manage to live with them now.

Environmental ecology is an important part of the social and economic process. The environment currently keeps us going without much human input. If we keep destroying it through pollution, then it cannot. Everything depends on everything else. We have to either repair the environment, which costs, or make an artificial envionment which probably costs more.

So at all levels, controlled low-pollution production of renewables, seems like a reasonable solution, one that is actually favoured by markets as well as by environmental concern.

The Million Mile Battery

December 13, 2019

An article in yesterday’s cleantechnica reports a prediction that the Tesla Truck could soon have a million mile battery.

Let’s leave aside the fact that the original prediction was found by the author in Reddit. But the evidence for this proposition is that some researchers, with a contract with Tesla, think its possible.

Capitalism works by hype, PR, advertising and deception. The idea being that if you can persuade people that a product exists or will exist with amazing properties, then people will be less likely to buy competing inferior products, or will hold out for your innovation and be less likely to buy supposedly inferior products. As the article itself states ” This would be a key selling point for the indecisive buyer who is on the edge of purchasing one [a Tesla truck].” 

The researchers may also be making the claim to keep Tesla interested in them, and supplying some funding – they have an interest in selling themselves as well.

So unless there is strong evidence that a million mile battery is currently in the testing stages, and that it is practicable for Tesla to build them at a price which is likely to attract custom (I have a million mile battery that can just power a car, only it weighs 100 tonnes, takes a year to charge and costs about 2 million dollars. Anyone interested?), then the sensible approach is to assume this is hype, and look at what the Tesla truck can do now. That may even be remarkable, just not as good as ridiculous, and its not so dependent on promises.

Australia increases fossil fuel exports

November 24, 2019

This is largely a series of quotes from the UN 2019 Production Gap report.

Governments [through out the world] are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway and 120% more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.

P.4

Australia is not only a major fossil fuel producer, but also the world’s leading exporter of coal (IEA 2019a) and the second largest producer and exporter of LNG (IGU 2018). With government backing, and proposed major new investments in mines and port facilities, Australia’s coal and gas outputs and exports could continue their rapid rise (Office of the Chief Economist 2019). Proposed large coal mines and ports — if fully completed — would represent one of the world’s largest fossil fuel expansions (around 300 Mt per year of added coal capacity) (Buckley 2019a; Department of the Environment and Energy 2018). The rise of hydraulic fracking has also opened the door to discussions on tapping into the country’s vast resources of unconventional (shale) gas (Westbrook 2018).

Australia supports increased fossil fuel production through several measures:

Tax-based subsidies total more than AUD 12 billion (USD 9 billion) per year (Market Forces 2019). This includes the fuel tax credit scheme, which allows fossil fuel companies to claim tax credit on their fuel use (Australian Taxation Office 2017), and a budgeted AUD 1.7 billion (USD 1.3 billion) for accelerated depreciation for oil and gas assets (Australian Department of the Treasury 2015).

Geoscience Australia, a government agency, absorbs sector risk by financing and conducting resource exploration, which was worth AUD 100 million (USD 75 million) in fiscal 2017 (Department of Industry, Innovation and Science 2018).

The government takes various steps to support increased coal production, including, for example, fast-track approval, private road construction, and reduced royalty payments for Adani’s recently approved Carmichael coal mine project in the Galilee Basin (Buckley 2019b).

Recent legislation increased government support for investment in new overseas infrastructure projects from AUD 2 million to AUD 1.2 billion to accommodate Australian coal and gas exports (Parliament of Australia 2019; Hasham 2019).

Government projections show coal production growing another 10% by 2024 and 34% by 2030, relative to 2018 levels (Office of the Chief Economist 2019; Syed 2014). As shown in Figure 4.6, the government also envisions gas production growing 20% by 2024 and 33% by 2030 relative to 2018 levels (Office of the Chief Economist 2019; Syed 2014).

Under these projections, Australia’s extraction-based emissions from fossil fuel production would nearly double (a 95% increase) by 2030 compared to 2005 levels. However, its NDC targets a reduction in territorial GHG emissions of 26–28% over the same period (Government of Australia 2016)”

p.35

This likely illustrates:

  • The heavy symbolic importance that coal has for developmentalism and prosperity, even faced with ecological destruction and massive climate change: the coal rush continues.
  • The dominant groups in the world are heavily identified (self-cateogrised) as belonging with fossil fuel companies, the use of fossil fuels, or the traditional trajectories of development through fossil fuels. They do not seem to care what will happen to their populations if climate scientists are correct about the likely tumultuous effects of higher Greenhouse gas emissions.
  • Dominant groups do not see that a method which used to produce order, is now highly likely to produce chaos, unintended effects or blowback. Reality has changed but ideology lingers, as do the power and wealth relations of fossil fuel societies.
  • The mess of information, provides many alternate stories which can make it seem that the risk of the process is negligible, and that the dominant groups find it easy to dismiss information which suggests the risk is not negligible, which further reassures them. I have been told that Right wing MPs in Australia refuse to attend climate briefings, and we know that despite the requests of State Governments, the Coalition recently refused to allow a general briefing of State Treasurers by a member of the Reserve Bank, on the risks of Climate Change. Acceptance of Information seems now almost totally driven by political and market allegiances. They also deny large bush fires could have anything to do with extended droughts, higher than average temperatures, and longer runs at peak temperatures. Instead they and the Murdoch Empire blame the effect on non-existent Greens policies.
  • The green paradox; the more likely it is that fossil fuels will be stopped, the more pressure there is to mine and sell them before it is too late, and there are fewer purchasers.

Rewrite of the Toynbee cycle

November 23, 2019

I have just extensively revised the post called Corporate society and the Toynbee Cycle I was intending to make it a new post here, but blew that completely 🙂

So if you are interested then please click the link above, and check it out….

Insurance and the measure of climate damage

November 21, 2019

This is a proposition only.

People often ask about how we can measure the effects of climate change. And this does seem to be difficult.

One possible method might be to compile a yearly figure which involves the combined factors of insurance company figures for weather related damage, added to the cost of weather disasters in each year for government departments.

If we factor in inflation, we should get some kind of sense as to whether, the effects of climate change have been getting worse.

One advantage of this method is that insurance companies are widely rumoured to underpay and underestimate damage, to keep their profit under control. So the figures should have be recognized as conservative, rather than exaggerated.

One of the problems with this method is, that as fires, cyclones and other extreme weather events become much more severe as we slide out of established climate stability into a new state of climate turmoil, we might expect climate damage to be so great that measures like this are totally inadequate.

For example, Insurance companies will probably try to avoid paying out, because that is how they make their money, and they have no way of calculating risk in the new circumstances, so they are continually threatened by the change. To help deal with this, flood plain areas, for example, are likely to be expanded giving insurers excuses for extending the lack of coverage. The same kind of thing will happen as governmental budgets run out, and help gets scaled back: I am told that Hurricane Katrina already broke the US national flood insurance.

As insurers retreat from insuring people, and government budgets run out, then the figures will become much too conservative to be of use, so we might have to find other measures of real damage. However, until then such measures might be worth while.

Addenda from 4 March 2021

In 2018, natural disasters killed more than 10,000 people and left millions more homeless. In the same year, natural catastrophe-related economic losses reached US$160 billion (A$215 billion) (half of which were all insured losses). The vast majority – 95 per cent – of the registered events were weather-related.

Ticha How resilient is the insurance industry against climate change? UNSW newsroom. 16 December 2020

One problem for the Insurance industry is that they rely on stability. They assume that changes in mortality and property damage, on the whole, move slowly, and that any crisis will probably be succeeded by a return to normality. This is not the case in a changing climate system. We simply do not know the changes in weather which will be produced. This makes calculating risk extremely difficult and highly inaccurate. It may also affect their business in general.

Insurers, however, must be careful not to underestimate the true threat of climate change. Because its effects are systemic, climate risk is likely to stress local economies and—more grimly—cause market failures that affect both consumers and insurers. More frequent catastrophic events, in combination with the need to meet evolving regulatory requirements, can threaten company business models—and make insuring some risk unaffordable for customers or unfeasible for insurers…. Some historically stable premium and profit pools will shrink, and possibly disappear…

McKinsey research shows that the value at stake from climate-induced hazards could, conservatively, increase from about 2 percent of global GDP to more than 4 percent of global GDP in 2050. And the risks associated with climate change are multiplying. They vary by locale, evolve, and have nonlinear systemic effects that tend to be regressive. In short, a small physical shift can change entire systems irreversibly

[Some companies] have publicly committed to reducing their exposure to carbon-intensive industries by 2030 or 2040. In recent interactions with industry executives, more than half have said that the industry’s response so far has been underwhelming and inadequate—even though the vast majority said that responding to climate risk is either “very important” or “a top priority.” 

Grimaldi et al. Climate change and P&C insurance: The threat and opportunity. McKinsey & Company 19 November 2020 [Rearranged]

The Ticha article referenced above, tries to explain some ways of countering these problems, but I’m not sure I understand what they are talking about.

The only safe thing to do for the industry is stop insuring people in areas which seem to be likely to get increasing damage, or massively increase the price of insurance. This action has huge consequences for the precariousness of ordinary people, as if they get hit by climate change they can lose everything.

The Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority (Apra) executive director Dr Sean Carmody told a Senate hearing on Tuesday the nation’s insurers and banks were taking steps to prepare for worsening bushfire seasons and more extreme weather events.

However, he said the resultant rising insurance premiums may put coverage out of reach for many people, threatening the stability of the wider economy…..

The total cost to the insurance industry from extreme weather and natural disasters between November 2019 and February 2020 alone stood in the range of $5bn.

Kermelov Climate change could put insurance out of reach for many Australians. The Guardian 2 March 2021

Capitalism and Authoritarianism

September 11, 2019

For me, right-wing thought is thought which tends to support hierarchy, authority, power, expansion of power, dictation over people’s personal lives and the enforcement of heavily bounded social categories. It reduces all liberty to the right to buy the products you can afford. Thus the right tends to hate egalitarianism, feminism, anti-racism and so on. They rarely support liberation movements that openly oppose capitalism. As I have argued previously they tend to use quite a lot of force to suppress free-speech, and then suppress awareness of the suppression, just as they suppress awareness of the general political shift rightwards. Right-wing thought has very little to do with conservative thought.

The left tend to favour relative egalitarianism (no one thinks everyone will be completely equal in everything, just that superiority in earning money or inheriting money, should not lead to massive inequalities of power and opportunity). They tend to favour people reclaiming their power and being treated as important politically. They tend to think that the State should not regulate your sex and recreational life, and so on.

I’d add that both modes of thought, tend to be non-systemic and have only a few solutions to problems, and they tend to think that if their policy is not working this must be because:

  • Somebody is deliberately working to prevent the policy being successful.
  • They have not applied the policy strongly enough.

They both tend not to think that unintended consequences are normal and need looking out for, and adjusting one’s actions for. They tend to think knowledge is complete and causality is obvious. The left tends to value looking at a diversity of solutions more than the right does, but this is a fragile virtue, and easily overthrown.

Libertarians tend to think that they understand complexity issues, but they seem completely unaware of the (hopefully) unintended, but expectable, consequences of imposing ‘free markets’ in the context of corporate dominance.

Of course many people on the right are actually more leftish than they believe, and its fair enough to protest against this particular categorisation of politics, but if you look at actual Right wing politics, it tends to nanny the rich and boot the poor, or give more liberty to the already powerful and curtail the liberty of everyone else. At the best it promises to restore the exclusionary power of people who felt they were dominant, but have lost that dominance.

Is it possible to separate this kind of hierarchical and authoritarian thinking from capitalism? I suspect not. After all, libertarians, and social-democrats, have been trying for years, and capitalism has not changed. It has in fact got stronger and more severe in its politics over the last 40 years of constant chatter about the benefit of free markets. There is certainly less liberty, less ability to influence politics, less protection at work, less equity in wealth distribution, less support in misfortune, less interest in protecting essential infrastructure, unless someone makes a profit out of it. Capitalism is not incompatible with dictatorship, although that support then distorts it’s official ideology still further.

I suspect this authoritarianism occurs because capitalism is primarily about the reduction of all values and morality to profit and wealth. This always becomes support for the wealth hierarchy, disciplining the work force, keeping ordinary folk down and assuming that protecting profit is better than protecting survival and continuance. Capitalism seems to suppress empathy for others, unless there is a buck in it, as capital accumulation can generally only occur if you separate yourself from the needs of other people.

In capitalism wealth controls all the modes of power: it can buy politicians, it can buy laws, it can buy the police, it can buy the military, it can buy the media, it can buy ‘knowledge’ that suits it, it can buy the economics that suit it and so on. Almost nothing is beyond purchase, and capitalism spreads its managerial modes of organisation everywhere, even into Churches. Consequently, capitalism becomes unchallengable, taken for granted, part of our sponsored common sense. The only movement that is officially acceptable, and that has much chance of winning out, is to strengthen capitalism and intensify its effects and spread.

In this process, support for authority is so great, that unintended consequences, such as ecological destruction tend to be ignored. If destroying ecologies is what keeps the system going, then that is what the system will do to preserve its power structures. Hence, the ability of free market leaders to encourage destruction, and to try and lower the legal consequences of destruction. They do not see how they themselves are part of a bigger system they need for survival and which they are destroying, or they think that wealth and authority will protect them. Everyone else, all ordinary people, are just rubbish and should be culled, as it is their fault for having too many children or being relatively poor or something. Hence the population line they continually push.

In the contemporary world, capitalism has no serious challengers except for Islamic fundamentalism, and it is doubtful that Islam will ever have much appeal in the West in the short term, so there is no incentive whatsoever for capitalists not to support their own hierarchies and authority and impose it everywhere so as to cement that lack of opposition, their wealth and their power.

The Right and the end of Free Speech

August 27, 2019

One of the things I dislike about the Right as a movement, is the way it tries to suppress discussion and opposition and has been doing so for a long time and, to a large extent, has succeeded. This is also a time in which the Righteous Australian government is pursuing media organisations and whistleblowers with perhaps the greatest ferocity ever. You must not inform people of things the Righteous do not want people to hear. I’ve written about this previously, so I won’t do more than mention the Australian governments attacks on Get-up (which says things they don’t like), while ignoring the right wing copies of Get-up which say things they do like, the attack on Unions while apparently leaving alone the financial services sector which has been shown to be massively corrupt and the attacks on whistleblowers carried out with secrecy.

Talking about the Government’s apparent lack of interest in stemming corruption, Stephen Charles AO QC said:

Late last year the Attorney-General gave his consent to the prosecution of [whistleblowers] Witness K and Bernard Collaery [who revealed that Australian Intelligence had bugged an ally, East Timor, in 2004 to give information to an Australian corporation to benefit their negotiations over oil rights]. There is no justification whatever for the prosecution to be proceeding in total secrecy. The facts of ASIS bugging, and ASIO raiding and confiscating are already well-known and matters of wide public discussion. The only possible reason for this flagrant departure from the principle of open justice is to hide from the Australian public the full tale of mendacity, duplicity, fraud and criminal misbehaviour with which the Australian Government and its intelligence agencies have treated our near neighbour Timor-Leste. It would also be hard to think of a stronger case for the public interest demanding publication of the events for which Witness K and Bernard Collaery are now being prosecuted.

The point is, don’t criticize the Right and its relation to corporate power, effectively or maybe you will be punished in secret.

Asked about the police raids on [journalists], Ida Buttrose [chair of the ABC] expressed the view the government was fully intent on intimidating whistleblowers, and the strategy was working. She noted the ABC had lost a couple of stories in recent times because potential whistleblowers had balked, concerned about the consequences.

I should emphasise that what I am about to say here, applies largely to right wing organisations and professional culture warriors in Australia, not necessarily to particular individuals – obviously not everyone who has views which can be classed as right wing behaves as described below – real cultural conservatives should refuse to act this way – but it colours what individuals perceive, and that is the point…

Historically, the right used to take overt pride in suppressing dissent and impure thoughts. They were always banning books, films, art, music, political movements and so on. Joh Bjelke-Petersen’s reign in Queensland was even more up-front than usual. States of emergency to put down dissent, making it illegal to gather in groups of more than three on a street, encouraging police harassment and violence against protestors or gay people, banning strikes, suppressing media criticism and criticism by opposition politicians through defamation laws, gerrymandering elections and so on. He was in power for 15 years, so this suppression was not unpopular amongst his followers.

Historically, the Right has, more often than not, tried to suppress the opinions of those lower in their hierarchies, who disagree with them, or can be categorized as: female, ‘inferior ethnicities,’ colonialized peoples, people with non-straight-sexualities, heretics and atheists, workers, unions, socialists, post-modernists, scientists whose findings are inconvenient for profit, economists who are not pro-capitalist, communal anarchists, and so on. Must defend the old hierarchies. The left also used to do this but, in general, it has tried to learn better, rather than lament the good old days when women and others were silent, or the force of silencing was more effective.

Often, this suppression of speech correlated strongly with criminal actions, so that the victims where not allowed to speak against the perpetrators, and the whole hierarchy would engage in protection of its members. The powerful were protected by silence. We can think of various Churches and Private schools in which children, or parishioners, were raped; financial institutions which made sure that people who objected to corruption were silenced and could not get another job in the industry; or governments who arrested those who protested against them, or reported crooked government deals with the corporate sector.

Suppression is more subtle nowadays, but it’s still so widespread that it’s the norm. As stated above, it may have little to do with individuals and much to do with right wing organisations and the ways they use individuals and affect the information individuals receive. I suppose it’s deliberate and coordinated but it may not be. You won’t hear about it much in the media, but that is part of the way it works.

Firstly, there is the argument, usually put in defense of “fake news”, that private news organisations such as Fox should be able to do what they like; and they have no responsibility to be balanced or truthful because they are private. This argument should imply you cannot trust any private media organisations, as they need have no commitment to truth, just to pushing their owner or controller’s politics and ideology. I don’t know the real percentage, but let’s assume, 90% of the media in Australia is corporately owned. By the logic of this defense, we can assume that the majority of this media is pro-corporate in orientation, and purveyors of ideology rather than pro-truth. The only Left wing media I know of, which basically argues things that would have been standard Labor policy before the shift to the right of the last 30-40 years, are produced in back rooms and have no distribution – not for them the luxurious publishing of right wing think tanks.

The argument about Fox, also indirectly suggests the power of hierarchy; only the owners of media can have their positions defended, proposed and listened to. Consequently, in general, the already powerful get to determine what ordinary people should think is correct. One implication of the argument is that if you want to talk truth in public, then go and start up your own media company. In other words, people who are not already powerful and wealthy should shut up; and, indeed, have to shut up as they won’t get reported, and their talk won’t reach the public in an undistorted manner. This argument takes hierarchy for granted. The rich have the liberty to do and say what they like and the poor to do what they are told.

It’s a bit like the great libertarian argument which goes: “the owner of private property has the absolute right to stop you protesting on their land, because it’s their land and they get to say what happens on it. Furthermore, there should be no publicly owned land as that is an encroachment on liberty.” The implied conclusion is left unsaid: “Consequently, you can only protest in public when and if the owners allow you to. That is real liberty.” To labour the point, if the wealthy don’t want you to speak, then nobody will hear you, so you might as well be quiet.

In terms of the old joke, the rich person and the homeless poorer person both have the same right to use defamation laws, and not to sleep in a public park.

The ABC, as a public institution is, in the same right wing argument in support of Fox’s freedom to deceive, supposed to have a commitment to “political balance,” because that implies it should go along with deliberate falsehoods and misdirections, which is probably the point of the argument.

But as a public institution, the ABC should be doing the best it can to report reality accurately, and to correct mistakes when it makes them. If we had Stalin in Canberra, we can imagine that he would attack accurate reporting, and claim bias, because the organisation was not supporting him without question. He would want ‘truthful,’ unbiased, pro-Stalin news.

We know that the ABC does its best to report accurately, because when Labor is in power it repeatedly accuses the ABC of bias, but on the whole it seems to think “this is another media organisation that’s against us, we’ll leave it alone”. The Coalition seems to think: “this is one media organisation that does not recognise we are the saviours, so we should punish it, shutdown its money supply, appoint people to the board who are on our side to made sure that it says what we want it to say. It should be like the Murdoch Empire, as that is proper news”. And so they do. And the righteous media cheers them on. At the moment, the Coalition don’t appear to execute people like Stalin might, they just strive to prevent accurate news, and threaten to imprison those who report it. They only have commitment to the free speech of those who agree with them, or who urge them to become more right wing.

If, however, someone, from the ABC, takes a position which the right does not like, like for example, asserting that on Anzac day we could remember refugees from war, or women raped in war, the screaming is endless. It goes on and on. Even if the person apologises. The person is said to traitorous, should be dismissed, should go back to where they came from, should shut up or be shut up, etc. The righteous idea here, is not to have a discussion, not even a mild discussion about the possibility that war is horrible or creates refugees who we might have a responsibility towards (as after all that goes against Coalition policy), but to shut down the possibility of discussion, and to penalise and intimidate those who might want a discussion. The only free speech allowed is Andrew Bolt’s and those who agree with him.

Likewise the public service is threatened and compromised. It has recently come out that growing inequality in Australia was suppressed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics to craft a “good media story”, or rather a story which was preferred by the government whose finance minister, Mathias Cormann told the Sydney Institute “Labor in more recent years explicitly committed itself to the flawed socialist pursuit of equality of outcomes – falsely asserting that Australia had a major and growing inequality problem”. Sadly for us, the growing inequality is correct. The ABC further pointed out that:

The survey is statistically unlikely to capture any of those who made AFR’s richest 200 list earlier this year.
This group had a combined net worth of $342 billion.
This group increased their net worth by an estimated 20 per cent last year, and have enjoyed a staggering 17-fold increase in real wealth (after inflation) in the 35 years since that report started.

But most of the media followed the Government’s cozy, pro-class war, line as we might expect – this time ignoring the ABC, perhaps they did not want the news to get out, and have discussions starting. We still don’t know how the report was nobbled.

What this kind of stuff shows is that for the Right news is political and hierarchical. If ‘news’ agrees with their positions, and the positions of those powerful enough to make the news, it’s unbiased and, if it disagrees with them, it should be shut down. The only acceptable news is pro-corporate, pro-hierarchy, news. Again, there is to be no discussion, unless the people on the other side have amazingly thick skins, unlike the person berated for mentioning refugees in war, and no possibility of being dismissed from their jobs by employers nervous of the ‘backlash’.

This tactic seems to have been normalised in the US during the 1980s early 1990s with the rise of right wing radio personalities like Rush Limbaugh. Again he should be able to speak, but was his tactic to have discussion? No, it was simply to close discussion and assert righteousness. Anyone who disagreed with him was screamed at, name called, mocked, threatened and shut down. If he was caught out lying, which he often was, he was just an entertainer, or satirist with no obligation to truth, just to entertaining his audience. That became the new normal for the Right, and their exemplary patter for their own suppressive speech. It still goes on today.

In this time the technique of shutting down discussion by screaming “politically correct” at almost anything which might be troubling, or express worry about equality was developed. Even today, ‘politically correct’ continues to be used as a discussion stopper and an assertion of righteousness, and dismissal – especially when the person being accused can be cut off. Silencing the problem and the discussion is the aim. The right has developed a whole series of other catch phases they use repeatedly to prevent communication and thinking. Thus if someone expresses a moral position a righteous person does not agree with, then that person is “virtue signaling” – a term which implies the moralist don’t actually believe the position either, but is trying to look good to others. Ironically, the people using the term are signaling to other right wingers that they don’t have to engage with the despised moral position at all, just shut it down, because they are all so virtuous. Likewise if someone is remotely concerned about inequality, or repression, they can be dismissed as a “social justice warrior”; they are just a fanatic interferer; no need to consider what they say just shut them down. If a woman objects to women being treated as objects for violence or rape, she is a “feminazi”, no need to deal with the problem, abuse her, mock her, and shut her up. People who discuss issues can be dismissed as the “chattering classes,” presumably the idea is that we should never discuss, only act or suppress others talk. Likewise terms like “socialism” have been turned into terms of abuse, so we cannot discuss how we might make a better capitalism, unless it involves making the wealthy even more powerful.

Again, this is something that clearly marks the shift to the right. Standard words from the 60s and 70s cannot be used, to the joy of the righteous triumphalists, who protest violently about being suppressed if some people object to them berating “boongs”, “apes”, “poofters” or whatever.

Alan Jones is a milder form of Limbaugh, but he still thinks that threat and shutting people down is the way to go, and when people suggest he should calm down he claims he is the one being bullied. If, finally, there are enough women able to speak, and who object to his threats of violence against women, why then they are just trying to prevent his innocent free speech and his right to assert the necessity of violence against powerful women. He is just being misunderstood. It’s not, “wow a previously silenced constituency now feels able to express their opinion, let’s listen we might learn something”. No one on the official face of the right has anything to learn – one reason why everyone else should shut up.

It is worth noting that, with his most recent spray, no one objected to the information he gave about New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s remarks on climate change, even if it did contain misrepresentations, they just objected to his demands that Australian prime minister “Scott Morrison gets tough here with a few backhanders”, “shove[s] a sock down her throat” and “goes for her throat”. With the usual right wing commitment to free discussion he added “she is a joke, this woman. An absolute and utter lightweight” “If I see her once more on the TV, I’ll puke.” “I wish she would shut up.”

This proved a bit much for Scott Morrison, for once, and he objected. Jones responded:

There are many people who would relish the opportunity to misinterpret anything that I say, and we saw some of that online yesterday. I would never wish any harm to any politician male or female

Pity he so often expresses the wish to harm women and others for disagreeing with him.

In general, the right has no time for any minority who might want to participate in a discussion which they previously did not feel able to participate in, unless that minority supports them. It does not welcome challenges to the normal hierarchies. If a group points out it has been discriminated against, even if it points out the discrimination is largely not deliberate but unconscious, then the screaming starts, about how men are the real victims, white people are the real victims, rich people are the real victims, Arch-Bishops and Cardinals are the real victims etc.

Somehow, the dominant factions when challenged managed to see themselves as the oppressed with the perfect right to shut up those who disagree with them – a bit of a paradox that expressing the dominant voice makes you a victim. And shutting people down, is what they try and do. Over and over. And yes you might expect that sometimes people who have really been oppressed and dismissed appear unreasonable when they speak (partly because hearing them speak is so unusual) but there is no effort to understand this, just to denounce it to support the existing hierarchy. The right only seem happy when the minority is hounded back into its box and shuts up.

This is just the norm on things like Fox, which are in right wing terms “fair and balanced,” but I once asked a right wing friend on the internet in the 90s, at the start of all this, why he thought people deployed this kind of arguing, and he replied that the point of discussion was obliteration of the opponent. Discussion was for whimps. Left wingers needed to be destroyed because they undermined true freedom. Ok, so you can only be free if you agree with right wingers. Over the years I stopped wondering why all the ‘trolls’ I encountered where right wing; even if they claimed to be giving voice to the silent people, it was always a particular intolerant, shouty type of ‘silent’ people who already seemed to be well represented on right wing media.

There was, again, no commitment to facts, but a large commitment to shutting down disagreement or reasonable discussion. Threats of death, violence and hacking were common, although physical hurt was unlikely to be carried out online. When I occasionally met right wing Americans offline (and we are not talking neo-nazis, but standard Republicans) the threats of violence were more disconcerting, and it was part of their right of free speech to make such threats. And of course they were just following the example of the powerful and mainstream right wing media, for whom this type of discourse was standard.

And then there were all the right whingers online who seemed to think they had had a successful discussion if they got ‘liberals’ upset. It almost became a cliché; that many on the right seem to guide their behaviour by what they think will upset liberals or shut them up. Not with positive policies, and not by whether their own arguments are any good. This is the righteous social injustice warriors in action.

Sadly after about 10 to 15 years or so of this righteous behaviour becoming the norm, people on the left or centre also became more rude, shouty and dismissive. I guess they had become fed-up of talking with no results except for constantly being insulted and threatened. Whatever the cause, it was not a good thing. Nowadays it can be hard to tell the parties apart in the way they act, and that feeds into the sense the right have that they are the “real victims”. However, we rarely heard, or hear, people who condemn the impoliteness of the left, worry about the continuing upfront public rudeness of the right, or about suppression of people by the right. I guess they don’t see it, and the right wing media rarely dwell on it or make a fuss about it, and after all, being biased is perfectly ok for corporate media.

Producing this binarism was, I think, the underlying idea of the tactic; to get political discourse to a state in which people could not talk to each other, because in-groups and out-groups were so tight and marked, there was no possibility of discussion. This is almost a sociological truism. Once you get people like this then they dismiss other opinions unheard, they will go along with more or less anything if it comes from “their side”; they certainly are less likely to criticise it, or wonder about their side. If they find that something their side agitates for is untrue, then they don’t have to think about their sides general position, and they cannot risk talking to someone on the other side. And in a situation in which most of the media is corporately owned and pro-right, the default side will nearly always be right wing. So, the right win from disrupting discussion and suppressing disagreement

Thus, to give one example, the Sydney Morning Herald, which is usually denounced as ‘leftist’, used to have days of coverage for protests in Canberra against the Labor Government, even if only 40 people turned up. They would talk about this as if it was a big issue – they still report some tiny right wing protests like this. Then when Tony Abbott got in and there were protests by hundreds of thousands of people all over Australia against Abbott’s policies, they neglected to cover it at all. Can’t have people thinking that lots of people might disagree with Abbott and stand in the pouring rain in Sydney to make the point (which they did). It might suggest he was unpopular. The Herald was taking the standard line that leftist thinking should largely be ignored. However, on that occasion, the Herald was confronted with lots of angry readers who had been to the protests and decided enough was enough. I can’t remember exactly how the Herald editorial staff tried to get out of it, but (from memory, and so I could be wrong) they basically asserted it was not newsworthy as everyone already knew about it! They still don’t discuss the few anti-Coalition demonstrations they report, for weeks before and afterwards, if they do bother mentioning them at all. Of course, we would have to look at the relative numbers of demos to be sure, but the first big Anti-Abbott demo was extremely noticeable, and was treated by a suppression they clearly thought was reasonable.

The Right increases fines and prison sentences for protests against corporate power, and you hardly hear about it. Who would report it, or dwell on it? Not the righteous media. They routinely suppress climate science and prevent anyone they can from speaking out, while giving as much publicity as possible to people who disagree with the science, or they close their articles suggesting that nothing can be done. They insist on any small problem with renewables and gloss over the multitudes of serious and known problems with coal or gas. The right happily stop people from investigating the conditions refugees live in, and appear to use violence and threat to shut down communication with refugees. This tactic often blends with the internet attacks, Trump’s friends reputedly compile lists of journalists they don’t like to spur on internet attacks on those who disagree with them, or who report their scams.

The current government in Australia is developing ways of shutting down extremism on Facebook. It’s not yet clear what they mean by “extremism”, but we can notice that the exclusion of extreme right wing sites and commentary gets media publicity, while the exclusion of non-violent left wing sites and commentary does not. In the US, some Republicans apparently consider Nazis to have protected speech, and anti-nazis to be extremists, so we can guess who will be silenced, and we won’t know much about it.

In the US during the election it came out that Trump was facing court for having sex (rape) with a thirteen year old girl at one of Epstein’s parties. You know, the guy who Trump said was a great guy who liked women “on the younger side”. He was accused by the woman who had been the girl and the woman who pandered her – who was clearly convicting herself. Another woman, who said she was one of Epstein’s sex slaves, claimed to have worked at Trump’s Mar-a-lago. If this had been Bill Clinton or any other Democrat it almost certainly would have been front page news for weeks, endlessly brought up on Fox and co…. but it was about a Republican and it still seems that most Americans, and Australians are unaware of the charges, it was handled so delicately and quietly. It should not have mattered who the candidate was; even when she dropped the charges because of the death threats she claimed to have received. Naturally the Righteous start the rumour that Clinton had Epstein killed. Trump himself promoted it. Trump must be separated from the scandal, and the evidence not discussed. Trump is probably not connected with the death, but that is not the point here, its about what gets taken up and what gets shut down without comment.

It is probably fruitless to point out that almost all the US media had been calling for President Clinton’s resignation over the Lewinski affair, but hardly any are calling for Trump’s resignation despite a series of overt lies, attempts to obstruct justice, subvert the courts and the constitution, profit off the presidency, and work with the Russians to support his election campaign – not to mention the accusations of under age rape, (because they never get mentioned). Sure there is some fuss about Trump and it appears that many do not like him, but it’s nothing like the one voice there was in Clinton’s time, because the Right, on the whole, support Trump no matter what he does (even, apparently, when he disrupts the sacred ‘free market’). If there is an excuse for praising or normalising Trump it is taken, as with the eagerness with which his State of the Union addresses have been praised as statesman-like because they were not just an obvious attack on his opponents. And then, almost all the Media in the US, including supposedly ‘leftist’ papers like the New York Times, initially accepted the Trump team’s account of what was in the Muller report without question that it might be false, indicating their general orientation, and then even said that Mueller’s live testimony, when it happened, was boring, not interesting etc. The extreme right wing media were more vituperative as usual. Dereliction of duty, or just default right wing media in action?

I could go on about the NSW government’s fight to shut down criticism, and its discovery that free speech means nothing if you just ignore the critical speech, and refuse to engage in discussion, because no one else [in the righteous media] will report it more than once, so it does not count or build up a movement. The whole series of events with the Westconnex, like signing contracts before making a business case or having an Environmental Impact Statement, the community consultations in which nothing was revealed, the community consultations not announced until the day before they were held, the vague and overtly inaccurate maps, and the reports on consultations being issued and printed days after the closure of submissions – which give the impression that the consultations were ignored. Then there was the take over of people’s homes with no notification; the suppression of a report which said the Government was grossly underpaying people for these thefts; the handing of the right of judging housing damage to the people who made the damage; and the refusal to filter exhaust stacks (even though it is possible) when medical science says the particulate pollution from the stacks will kill people before their time and make children sick. The reasons for the stacks being unfiltered are because it might cost a bit to maintain and interfere with corporate profit.

That’s right, the right will knowingly kill people to guarantee maximum corporate profit – not just any profit, but maximum profit. No wonder they will suppress discussion to maintain profit.

That is the other reason I dislike the right. Because, whenever there is conflict between public good and corporate power and profit, their organisations will always come down on the side of corporate power and profit. Hierarchy is everything.

I suspect that this is why they developed the news trolling and abuse strategy and devolved into encouraging the kicking and suppression of “liberals”. When the right wing organisations began to move away from being cultural conservatives to becoming neoliberals, and setting up a bold new unstable world. They could not say openly “we are now going to sacrifice your children to corporate power and profit, because that is the only thing that matters” as they would have lost their supporters. Much better to tell their supporters they were being victimised by the left, and should kick back. Even if the problems faced by people were largely produced by the expansion of corporate dominance, the suppression of opposition and the denial of conservatism. Of course, as we might have expected, the support of corporate power and “free markets” meant that the media field shrank, and independent media died or was taken over by corporate media, and hence there is no little opposition to their real policies. The best knowledge we have about ecology, water, economics, medicine and so on, is routinely ignored or slandered when it comes into conflict with corporate greed. The political field, and what is acceptable, have slid rightwards. As, old leader of the Coalition and now “far left” commentator and professor of Public Policy, John Hewson said, they are “are essentially running a marketing, rather than a well-defined policy, strategy” “[T]hey must deceive because reality is not on their side.”

The Right has simply poisoned discourse, to hide the fact that their policies are completely different to what they declare them to be. They aim to support and entrench the hierarchy, nanny the plutocracy (especially miners and developers) and kick the poor and anyone who disagrees with them. You may not hear much about the right wing suppression of thought and discussion, because the default right wing media supports these suppressions. Free speech is pointless without open discussion, and that has stopped. It’s a perfect circle.

Later continuation

Is capitalism inherently authoritarian?

Plutocracy and resistance to Climate Change

August 25, 2019

It is a common assertion that people don’t want to sacrifice anything, such as living standards, to fight future threats like climate change, and it is probably true. Humans are not good at avoiding slow future threats. This is especially the case in a Plutocracy (such as most of the world now lives in) when most of the dominant classes understand that facing the threats could challenge their power, wealth, and accepted way of doing things. A big threat, like massive ecological upheaval produces an existential crisis for plutocratic power. This is especially true when many of the modes of making wealth seem to involve ecological destruction somewhere in their path.

One of the recurring motifs we hear, seems to be able to be summarised as “We can’t see how capitalism can solve ecological crises and destruction, therefore there is no threat, we can be concerned about” or perhaps “without destruction there is no profit, so there can be no threat”.

There are obviously some corporations whose executive officers disagree with this kind of position, but they seem in the minority, or handicapped by the usual demand for profit at all cost. I am reminded of an academic paper by Christopher Write & Daniel Nyberg which described how corporate greening starts of with enthusiasm, goes through cost cutting, eventually gets slammed for not delivering maximum profit, until the greening becomes little more than words. Greening is expensive. Paying decent wages is expensive. Not destroying things is expensive. Doing good work is expensive. All go against short-term profit.

Plutocracies are particularly inefficient at facing such threats because wealth concentrates power. The government, and government policy, is bought through money (for campaigning), knowledge, and knowledge distribution is bought through money, the media is nearly all corporately owned and largely protects corporate power. Business associations tend to be against doing anything that might disrupt them or lessen their influence, and the driven wealthy can then use the government to stop government scientists and public servants from communicating with the public. They can get tools of research shut down to help maintain ignorance. Business ends up buying public services and property through privatisation, gets contracts for services, and use “commercial in confidence” to make sure that the public has no idea of the monies involved. It can probably privatise the data, so that the contracting government has little direct idea of what it is doing, and this opens the way for fraud – say finding a person a job with a sub-company, to get the completion and then sacking them to get the ‘new’ client again. In this way, business becomes the government – giving the government the information it wants, directing people with State power, buying politicians, and carrying out services with no responsibility to the people. The only responsibility is to make money out of the situation, and that is threatened by change in approach to government. Encouraging capitalist profit driven markets does not have to encourage democracy, or understanding.

In this situation, if the ruling groups don’t want to do something, then it is hard to persuade them, or others, to do it. While this is reality, it does not make it useful.

Plutocracies are too invested in things remaining as they are to face serious change. They have to be dismantled slowly.

Obviously a sensible business will not behave like this. If the people in it do not recognize change, then they will go out of business. Change is also an opportunity. But business which acts as government has not learnt to do this. It has learnt to use the government to suppress threats to its profitability, and therefore becomes inefficient, unobservant of the surrounding world and frightened of change. This is reinforced by the hierarchy of business, in which people at the top routinely manipulate, or restructure, people beneath them, and people at the bottom routinely give their management the information they think the management requires. This affects the business information systems. In all cases, because there is no real transmission of information or understanding, everyone is governed by social fantasy. And if the business is wanting to avoid a problem like climate change, the fantasy is easily imposed on the world as reality – at least for a while.