Posts Tagged ‘economics’

The ‘liberal media’ and ‘fake news’

March 5, 2019

There are many factors leading to the prevalence of fake news.

An important cause is that capitalism depends on fake news and manipulation of information for its daily activity. We have advertisements that carefully conceal problems, and associate products with good times, family, success and so on, when the product is largely irrelevant to these joys. We can have advertisements that blatantly lie about products, and the transformations that will happen when you buy them, to get you to buy them; sometimes these lies may be ‘ironic’ so as to make the falsehood obvious, even while making it. Advertisements aim to keep you consuming when you already have enough and could more sensibly invest money elsewhere.

We have companies continually hyping products that are in development to undermine markets for existing products and rival products in development. We have science being attacked to keep products on the market, and successful, a long time after they are known to be dangerous or destructive. We have PR organisations whose sole role in life is to make their clients look good when they have done harmful things and to discredit any opposition or criticism. For sales and functioning, the appearance of integrity is more important than real integrity. Fake news is not marginal to capitalist functioning. As deceit and misdirection works to keep corporate profit high and seems entirely natural in capitalism, it is not surprising that its use is extended elsewhere.

The general thesis of this article is that, given that the Right tends to be busy implementing policies that will benefit the corporate sector at the expense of everyone else, they have an incentive to issue fake news to keep voter support, or at least keep voters in perpetual confusion.

They are helped in this aim, by a web of corporately supported ‘think tanks’ who get massive amounts of money to support their various corporate sponsor’s lines and provide ‘useful opinion’ and ‘policy advertising’. These think tanks are routinely quoted to provide ‘independent’ support for the corporate sector and its ‘free markets’, or to attack (or ignore) whatever science shows that the Right is living in a fantasy land. This seems normal in capitalist practice, as asserted above. Reporting information from these sources also saves corporate media money, as the media do not have to spend much on investigation. As well as commercial distortion, political parties can also try to distort news for political advantage, and misinformation can easily be spread when it supports corporate ideology, or if it attacks those who have doubts about corporate dominance. Similarly, governments who are warring against each other can also issue fake news, to try and influence the populace of other countries – hence the Russian involvement in the US elections, which seems to have been successful enough.

An important question in studies of informational bias, is ‘who owns and controls the Media, and how do they work?’ The answer is simple: most media is corporately owned. Consequently most media is biased in favour of the corporate sector, and of corporately controlled politics and markets. Such media depends on corporate advertising for revenue, so it has another incentive to be nice to the corporate world. Business pressures add to the problem; things like keeping advertisers, time pressures, getting news cheaply from PR firms and from hype press releases, and attracting customers through sensation, gossip, and previously unheard stories. This adds to irrelevance and fakery. On the whole, this makes it extremely unlikely the media will criticise the current set up of power relations other than to allege we need less regulation of the corporate sector.

Theories which rely on the proposition that left wing intellectuals and “cultural Marxists” have taken over the media in an attempt to brainwash the population into progressivism, have to explain how it is that (uniquely in this form of business), management and owners are not running the show for their own benefit, and to promote their own ideas. The only other explanation for this assertion is that the poplar market is largely left wing? Which I doubt people making this assertion will agree with.

A media takeover by left wing workers also seems unlikely as, in general, the media tells me how wonderful the free market is nearly all the time. If the right does anything bad then it tells me how the ‘liberals’ ‘have done something equally bad’, while if ‘liberals’ do something bad it does not need to make any equivalences. It can report the smallest right wing protests over days, portraying them as popular movements, and can completely ignore much larger left wing protests unless they are absolutely huge. Even then you don’t get much information about what people were protesting about and the coverage rarely lasts for more than one report. The media gives equal time to people who deny there is an ecological crisis, but does not give remotely equal time to the large numbers of people who think free market or neoclassical economics is rubbish. It reports next to nothing about the hardships of working class people or the protective actions of unions. It ignores tales of industrial accidents, and keeps telling us how wonderful successful business people are and how much we depend on them. The number of times people like Noam Chomsky, left wing anarchists, or known Marxists, get access to the mainstream media is close to zero – although it is true that people like Obama will be labelled as left wing to make it seem as if there is balance. Failures in the system are supposed to arise from corrupt individuals who can be ignored, not because that is the inevitable way the system works. No detailed critique of the system is allowed. In the US, the media has spent 30 years or so passing on Republican slanders about the Clintons to the extent that despite all the truly lengthy investigations that have turned up nothing, people still think they are guilty of something.

Then there is the kind of censorship that Chomsky discusses, in which information people should know is just not made easily available because it goes against rightwing dominance. Most people in the US do not know labor history, or the way that capitalist elites have attempted to suppress the workforce, they don’t know anything about the number of industrial accidents that are ‘normal’, they are not aware that high levels of unemployment result from pro-business policies to keep wages “under control,” they don’t know what socialism is about and so on; they just know ‘free markets’ are good and socialism, or unions, are bad, as they are told this repeatedly.

Then there are media organisations such as those in the Murdoch Empire, who seem to deliberately promote a right wing ideology at all costs, and who specialise in name calling and attacks on ‘liberals’. At least according to folklore, Murdoch workers get the message as to what is to be written and they write it, or face the sack. I was recently told by a journalist who had worked for the Murdoch Empire that the articles they submitted would be rewritten to support the official line if they deviated.

The hard right media appears to promote the idea that any other media is ‘liberal’ (in the contemporary sense of vaguely left) in order to appear less biased, get their audience angry with other sources of news, and keep those audiences loyal, and dismissive of other media, other information or other modes of understanding. There is little free speech in such media. There is no shortage of extreme right wing radio or right wing internet news (from Rush to Alex). In Australia, right wing ‘shock jocks’ and late night broadcasts get high promotion even when their audiences are tiny. Again, these media corporations have the problem that the right wing ‘neoliberalism’ ‘free market’ guff, they support and as is practiced in politics today, can have no other effect than boosting corporate power and dispossessing ordinary people of a good life; thus abuse of others, “culture wars,” fakery and promoting anger is a way they try to keep people onside, angry and not thinking and purchasing their product and advertisements. It is vitally important that their audience be made to distrust anything else. Even if their audience does not trust them, they should trust others even less.

There is little to no large scale left wing media in the US. I wish those people who think there is such a thing could point me to this left wing media. Perhaps, the LA Times might count, but on the whole such media is small scale, amateurish and badly funded – think Mother Jones or The Daily Kos. People usually suggest things like The New York Times, or MSN but these are not particularly left – just more humanist and more likely to be pro-Democrat and polite than, say, Fox. Not every piece of right wing media is as extreme and devoted to promulgating pro-corporate views, as the Murdoch Empire. Some media even allows a bit of divergence.

There is better media and worse media. There is hard right media and soft right media which has a cursory acquaintance with truth. Some of the latter can occasionally be bothered to check whether some right wing politicians are using ‘real facts’ or just making things up. On the whole the soft right media do not like Trump – possibly because they know about his business history and Trump does not listen to all the corporate sector – he has marked favourites, and seems to be using the Presidency to boost his commercial success – which could be considered unfair. They may even suggest President Trump is corrupt, but they won’t run with it like they did for Clinton, even if Clinton was not possibly treasonous. They find it very hard to talk about business and corruption, because this is the nature of the capitalism they support, and as Trump is a wealthy businessman, he must be good. The soft right media can also recognise that Climate Change is a threat to stability of the corporate sector, and hence tend to report slightly more, but only a little more, news about it. However, they are not left, as they would not discuss how the organisational drive for profit is one of the major causes of climate change, or that we need to restructure the economy and social life to defeat it. That is too much to ask.

In Australia I read the Fairfax press more than the Murdoch Empire, and that press is full of right winger opinion pieces supporting the righteous coalition government, and attacking the opposition and the Greens. It has three regular columnists who belonged to the right wing Coalition and non from the parties of the ‘left’. It has regulars from right wing think tanks and only occasionally people from the left (there aren’t as many). However, its economics columnist does not always promote neo-classical economics, it has an ex-architect who is appalled at the way neoliberal policies produce bad design and ignore ordinary people’s needs. It also has a moderate muslim academic. As a result, the paper is branded Far Left by those in the Murdoch Empire.

However, despite the right wing inclination and the culture wars, there is very little real conservative input into media, as capitalism is not conservative. In capitalism the only virtue is profit and, as real conservatives realise, capitalism has no use for tradition if it gets in the way of markets and profits. Self-reliance, virtue, community, liberty, national unity, economic responsibility, there is nothing capitalism will not sacrifice to maintain profit. Thus there is a sense in which the media does appear ‘liberal’ in the old sense of liberal, as pro-free market.

Ultimately, the idea that there is a leftish media is another piece of fake news, spread about to make it easy for the Right to dismiss anything other than blatently pro-Right party-line news as biased.

Some classic books:
Alterman “What Liberal Media?: The Truth about Bias and the News”

Boehlert “Lapdogs: How the Press Rolled Over for Bush”

Davies “Flat Earth News: An Award-winning Reporter Exposes Falsehood, Distortion and Propaganda in the Global Media”

Hermann and Chomsky “Manufacturing Consent”

Kitty and Greenwald “Outfoxed: Rupert Murdoch’s War on Journalism”

Kitty “Don’t Believe It!: How Lies Becomes News”

Oreskes and Conway “Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming”

Otto “The War on Science: Who’s Waging It, Why It Matters, What We Can Do About It”

Three Objections to Jancovici

March 1, 2019

Final post, in this series, on Jancovici. I’ll try and move on to more detailed theorists of energy, entropy and economics soon. Here are some responses to people’s objections to his positions.

Objection 1) Jancovici ignores technological development and invention which means that energy can be used with greater effect, or that old ways of doing things can be superseded. For example, nowadays you do not need a car to transport a message, you can use email. Similarly, Energy usage for any activity is not necessarily constant.
This possibility implies economies may be able to increase growth without more energy consumption.

Answer: Technological development does not always occur because we need it. We cannot depend on hope or imagined tech, or imagine that the hoped for technology will be deployable in the limited time frames available to us. If such tech arises then good, but we cannot assume it will arise.

Furthermore, the Jevons effect (the idea that the more energy can be produced cheaply the more will be used), seems demonstrated. There seems to be no evidence that energy efficiency is commonly used in capitalism to reduce energy consumption. Can anyone give an illustration of where more energy could be produced and was not used to produce more of the same, or diverted into producing other goods?

Inventions like the internet may not have reduced energy usage. Not only is massive energy required to power the internet and store data, but internet shopping has massively boosted transport of packages to individual locations and probably increased transport energy demands.

Progress does not always imply the end of all limits. If we could use oil ten times as efficiently as we do now, we will still eventually run out of oil, and it is (perhaps even more) unlikely that we will stop using oil before it runs out.

Technological development may drive a demand for energy, and hence for ‘dirty’ and destructive energy production. It is also the case that dubious financial processes can support, otherwise uneconomic fuel collecting for periods of time, to reinforce the old system. This appears to be the case with fracking, shale oil, tar sands and so on, which seem to be given energy by debt and hope.

This latter point also implies we may also need to look at ‘lock-in’ and ‘path dependence’ as part of our problem, not just because history can limit our options, but because old technology and its organisation frequently supports relations of power, wealth and communication which actively oppose any transformation. Transformation is not simply a matter of people automatically doing what is best for their survival, but of political struggle for the right to survive and change those relations of power, wealth and communication, while dealing with the unintended consequences of established actions and supposedly transformative actions.

Having said that, it appears that renewables are improving in terms of reliability, lifetime, cost and storage costs. This is helpful, but it does not mean it will be enough, or that powerful people and countries will not fight to expand fossil fuel consumption for their, or these companies’, apparent profit, as China, Japan and Australia appear to be doing. There is also a temptation, especially in capitalism, to take cheap renewables which are made without regard to the energy, pollution and waste expended in their manufacture and transport – and thus give the appearance of transformation while keeping up, or even increasing, the pressures for collapse.

If energy availability does affect what we can do, then changing energy availability, without a concerted effort to change social desires and organisations, will lead to protest and discontent.

Objection 2) GDP may not decrease because of lack of energy, but energy usage may decrease because of decline in GDP (as with the financial crisis). When economic activity declines then energy usage will decline.

Answer: It may well be true that a decline in GDP through a financial crisis, or lack of resources etc will depress energy consumption. We know CO2 emissions declined after 2008. But the argument is not that energy availability is the only factor involved in economic activity or GDP, but that Energy availability is a significant economic factor, and should be studied and made part of our models.

One significant point of Jancovici’s argument is that you cannot ignore the effect of limited resources, and that some vital resources can get used up. I also argue that entropy, waste and pollution and its distribution should be part of the models, as these affect (and possibly drive) economic activity and social health.

Everything that is produced, or every service which exists, requires energy for its creation and performance. Without available energy there is no life, no culture, and no human exchange or economics.

Some relationship exists between economic activity and energy availability. It is, therefore, not completely without point to suggest the connection should be admitted, and we should explore how to model it.

Objection 3) It is the contradictions of capitalism that are destroying the world.

Answer: Energy consumption is destroying the planetary ecology because it involves burning fossil fuels, and energy consumption is a direct driver of economic growth and that too is destroying the planet through extraction, destruction and production of pollution (which can be thought of as entropic). This is the case, in many kinds of political and economic systems. This commonality does not mean that capitalism, especially neoliberal capitalism, is not a significant problem. However, we cannot just assume that if capitalism collapses then all the problems will collapse with it.

Capitalism may intensify the problem, because the only value it recognizes is profit. If it is profitable to pollute and destroy, then it will be done, without it necessarily being an unintended effect. In this situation, attempts to constrain destruction will almost certainly be seen as destructive attempts to constrain liberty.

To recap:

  1. We cannot assume technological innovation will allow us to generate more energy with less pollution, through some unknown or imagined technology – we have to work with what we have got.
  2. Jancovici thinks we should consider nuclear, other people think it is safer and cheaper to go without that. These are both arguments which don’t hypothesise technologies which are untried or uninvented, and so the argument is worth having.
  3. The effects of energy availability need to be explored, and factored into our economic models.
  4. The effects of entropy, destruction and pollution also need to be explored and factored into our economic models.
  5. Once we have carried out the above steps we can then examine how we need to modify or overthrow capitalism, realising that any attempts at reform will be resisted by extremely wealthy and powerful people and organisations. That the change may be necessary for survival does not mean it will arise.
  6. It seems unlikely that we can extend current western models of prosperity and daily life to the rest of the world without catastrophic consequences.

Jancovici: version 3

February 27, 2019

Yet another attempt to summarise and elaborate Jean-Marc Jancovici’s general argument.

Economies are not perpetual motion machines. The second law of thermodynamics can be phrased as perpetual motion machines are impossible. Economies involve energy consumption and dissipation (or require energy input), transform materials and produce waste and other entropic (or ‘disorderly’) processes, in their functioning. They also involve political struggles over allocations of goods and property, modes of exchange, modes of property, forms of labour, types of regulation, decisions about what costs shall appear ‘free,’ and what costs will be born by various groups, and so on. These factors are not incidentals but necessary and essential parts of the economy.

Often it seems that economies are portrayed as endless circulations, without energy being consumed, without politics influencing markets as standard practice, without destruction, without waste, and without disruptive consequences arising from standardized actions. Complexity and the laws of thermodynamics cannot be ignored if we wish to be accurate in our understanding of economies.

Constraints on energy constrains activity, while availability of energy increases possible activity. This seems fundamental. Energy is a driver of economic processes. If our technologies or bodies have no energy they cannot produce anything, or even do anything. Energy is necessary for transformation, and is released by organised and directed transformations such as burning or chemical reactions etc.

Energy is a necessary, although not sufficient for economic action. If we extend the notion of economy to cover ecology, as is frequently done to reduce ecology to economy, then this also true. While availability of energy is fundamental we do not expect to find life on Mercury or the surface of the sun.

The industrial revolution involves many processes such as, changes in patterns of class and power relations, changes in technology, changes in patterns of living, but it is also about the growth of energy supply, and the growing transition away from human and animal labour to machine and fossil fuel ‘labour’.

In other words when Adam Smith invented the labour theory of value, he did so by seeing that, in his society, the most obvious form of directed, organised and transformative energy availability came through human labour. Animal energy was organised by human labour, wind energy came about as a result of human labour and so on. Human labour itself, depended on the energy released by agriculture. Nowadays, human labour provides far less useful and transformative energy than fossil fuels, and it becomes easier to see that energy availability is as important as the organising force of human labour for economic processes.

All energy processes are affected by complexity and the laws of thermodynamics, and they are, currently, producing a series of crises.

Firstly, industrialisation is bringing about an increasing noticeability, and consequence, of the entropic (or disorderly) processes which result from it, and which it appears to require. These include ecological destruction and climate change. These ‘side effects’ are now affecting industrialisation. Actions in complex systems have unintended effects, and this affects the system.

Secondly, while we may be able to recycle materials (with increased energy expenditure), we cannot recycle energy. Energy, when used, cannot be used again. Once we burn oil or coal it has gone. Our cheap, easy, energy supply is being used up, and will not be regenerated in any relevant time frame. The energy, and other, costs of extraction will increase lowering energy availability, and this will have an effect on economic activity – most probably, hindering it.

Thirdly, further burning, or stretching the use of fossil fuels (primarily coal) will increase the entropic effects of disorderly climate and ecologies.

The need for new energy sources remains. We can possibly harvest energy directly from the sun, or its consequences – but this also requires existing energy, as solar energy is not “ready to hand” or “ready to use” in the same way as fossil fuels can just be dug up and burnt. Renewables have to be built (but so do fossil fuel energy stations). Furthermore, any transformation will cost a lot financially, in terms of effort, in reorganisation and political conflict as established powers attempt to protect their positions. This will be magnified by the consequences of ecological and climate instability

Transition is difficult and made more difficult by the crisis. We cannot assume that the economies’ ‘markets’ alone will save us, as ‘markets’ are themselves under pressure.

Further reflections on energy and entropy in economics – Jancovici again

February 25, 2019

In the previous post, I suggested that Jean-Marc Jancovici insists that economists ignore problems of energy availability, and this distorts their (and our) economic expectations.

As previously implied, we can add that life and economics exist on this planet because of the slow self-destruction of our Sun. If the Sun emitted too much radiation (or the planet received too much radiation) it is doubtful that sophisticated life could exist anywhere on the planet – although possibly some life could survive deep underground or near vents in the deep oceans. If we received too little radiation, life might be similarly constrained. Eventually in the far distant future the sun will die, but this is way too far in the future for us to bother about at the moment.

In this sense solar energy is fundamental to life and society. Manual labour (the basis of many economic theories) and human thought, experiment or design only exist because of the energy humans and creatures extract from food, and that ultimately depends upon the Sun’s radiation and self-destruction. Energy from the sun is stored by, amongst other things, coal and oil, and is released in fire.

As we know, forms of organisation can massively magnify the power of human thought and labour (and massively disorganise them, or waste then, as well). Putting these points together, Jancovici’s argument declares that the energy we can extract through the ways we organise burning fossil fuels massively overshadows the power of human labour in creating social ‘value’ and material goods.

To restate:
Energy consumption and its organisation and implementation through social organisations and other technologies (the social aspects) is fundamental for the kind of economies we have today.

We should note that we also adapt our economies to the kinds of availabilities of energy that we have to deal with. Power is currently cheap at night because coal fueled electricity has not been ‘dispatchable,’ or particularly variable, and much energy is wasted.

Changes in energy supply and availability will have economic and organisational consequences, and we currently need to change energy supplies because an unintended consequence of fossil fuel based energy supplies is climate change. There are other forms of ecological destruction happening which are as important, and which reinforce climate change, but I’m currently putting them to onside – not, I hope, ignoring them. The prime cause of climate change reintroduces the importance of entropy.

Entropy is one of those scientific concepts over which there seems a fair bit of dispute, and a relative ease of misunderstanding. I’m warning any readers that this may be all be wrong. Please let me know if you know better. ‘Entropy’ is a description of a process, rather than a thing, so it is possibly better to talk about ‘entropic processes’ rather than ‘entropy’. The point of entropy is that any use of energy, any ‘work,’ engages entropic processes alongside that usage. These entropic processes are usually dissipated as heat (random molecular movement) and/or through reduction of what appears to be constructive order or demarcation.

It is often postulated that entropic processes will lead to “universal heat death.” This is a state in which there is no more energy in one part of the universe than in another. Particles are completely randomly distributed. Whether this state is a state of total order or total disorder is up to you – the paradox is obvious and implies life is a ‘mess’ (or ‘balance’ if you prefer) of order and disorder.

At the extreme, this idea also implies that too much work will generate too many entropic processes and the planet will warm independently of what precautions we take. The use of air-conditioners in some Cities is supposed to increase the heat of those cities (as the heat involved in producing the cooling dissipates outside the area of cooling), and thus encourages more air-conditioning and more heating. The same may be true of automobiles (engines moving people around get hot, and dissipate that heat). An economy necessarily produces (semi-organized forms of?) dissipated heat.

We all hope that this extreme fate is ultimately avoidable or far off, or avoidable because we have spare energy to do something about it. We could develop more efficient engines or ways of cooling, or better ways of organising those processes (but this can never stop excess heat being dissipated). Ordering processes can always create disordering processes – and we should not ignore the disordering, or entropic, processes simply because we like, or are impressed by, the order. What we define as order and disorder come together. Another problem here is that the more complex the processes we use to prevent the entropy we generate from overwhelming our order, then the more energy the order may take to keep going, and the more prone the system may be to accident or collapse.

Entropy also suggests that, while we use energy to produce useful transformations, we also produce waste or pollution by breaking things down. This is furthered by forms of social organisation which make it acceptable to create waste, or allow waste and poisons to be allocated to ‘unimportant’ areas, and onto relatively powerless people, where the effects can be ignored. If you like, blockage of information (in this case about pollution) is as important a part of current economic life as is accurate and resolvable transmission of information.

Just as wealth gets allocated by patterns and processes of ‘social class’, so does waste, probably in an inverse form; waste and risk of harm gets distributed away from wealth. However, as waste tends to randomness, this distribution may not be quite as rigorous. Few will totally escape climate change.

So we may say that the implications of Jancovici’s argument suggests orthodox economists not only ignore the availability and organisation of energy as important to economy (other than as labour), they also ignore entropic processes and waste and their forms of organisation and disorganistion.

It therefore appears we need a new orthodox economics which deal with these things. So part of the next stage is to look at some criticisms of Jancovici and the work that has been done to factor energy and entropy into economics.

To restate, yet again:

Energy availability, its capacities, organisation, distribution, implementation and consumption through social organisations and other technologies, and the effects (both intended and unintended, such as entropy waste and pollutions etc) of its production and organisation (etc.) is fundamental for understanding the kind of economies we have today.

Energy cannot be ignored

Jancovici and energy in economics

February 25, 2019

Jean-Marc Jancovici is a French Engineer, who has spent a lot of time writing about economics. His longer form work is not translated into English, but I thought it might be useful to try and summarise some of his thinking, to think about it. There should eventually be a sequel to this post criticizing or developing it. Occasionally, its more me than Jancovici (and material I have taken or misunderstood from my brilliant colleague, whose name I’m removing for security purposes), but I hope nothing would be unacceptable to either of them.

Jancovici claims that the Western, and world, economies are based primarily on the availability of energy and only secondarily on the cost of energy. Availability of energy drives contemporary economic activity far more than labour or capital, although neoclassical economics largely ignores energy availability (and the ecological cost/destruction of economic activity) in favour of labour and capital. But:

“if we have plenty of workers and plenty of capital, but no energy,… we won’t get any significant production!”

Note this can mean that unless spending frees energy, it may have little effect on the economy.

He defines energy as something which is produced by, or allows changes in, the world/system. Energy is about transformation.

“As soon as the world that surrounds us (= ‘a system’) changes, energy plays a role, and the amount of energy involved measures the magnitude of the change of the system between before and after.”

The greater the transformation, the more energy is involved.

“Our economic system is nothing else than the transformation, on a very large scale, of natural resources into ‘something else’.”

The laws of thermodynamics state that in a closed system, energy can neither be created, nor destroyed, but only be transformed. Therefore, “the energy used by a system has.. to come from outside the system”, and this has usually originated from the sun, causing the water cycle, being transformed and stored in plant material (and then into food, or through release by burning fossil fuels, or simply burning wood or feaces) and so on. This process is essentially ‘free’, although extracting energy takes some energy (and the construction of technology to apply that energy to extract the energy). Every time energy is used it ‘degrades’ and some is lost; this corresponds to the notion of entropy. Every transformation increases entropy, and entropy is sometimes seen as a degree of disorder, or a departure from the order demanded by humans. In a closed system entropy eventually wins out.

the entropy of an isolated system never decreases over time.

Isolated systems spontaneously evolve towards thermodynamic equilibrium, the state with maximum entropy [full thermodynamic equilibrium means there is no flow of heat, no detectable energy….].

Non-isolated systems, like organisms, may lose entropy [or gain organisation], provided their environment’s entropy increases by at least that amount so that the total entropy either increases or remains constant.

Therefore, the entropy in a specific system can decrease as long as the total entropy of the Universe does not.

Entropy is a function of the state of the system, so the change in entropy of a system is determined by its initial and final states.

wiki sentences split apart for clarity.

Life exists on Earth, because of the energy that comes from the sun (and possibly from the interior of the Earth, although if there was no sun that heat would drain away into space).

The use of machines and new organisations of production, during the industrial revolution to transform the newly, and plentifully, available stored carbon and sunlight in fossil fuels, has magnified the amounts of transformation that humans can impose/make on the general system in a short amount of time. Much of this transformation has been declared good in terms of increasing human potential, and human power. Developed countries are able to exert power (military and trade)in the world with relative ease. This is why ‘developing countries’ who had not yet fully corralled this use of energy were, and are, so keen to instigate it. It provides some degree of security from active colonialism (in theory). Again, we can point to technological development as allowing an increase in the amount of energy we can extract – but this is hard to quantify. This is why previously dominant technological processes can lead to a social dead end; the cost of replacement of old tech with new tech seems excessive. The main point is that we are still not creating energy, only transforming it more efficiently and with greater effect on the world system.

Humans today are facing a crisis because of five factors:

  1. We have, over the last 70 or so years, been increasing human dependency on fossil fuels for our daily life and survival.
  2. Oil and gas are approaching, or have reached [it is disputable], peak production. Consequently, social availability of energy is likely to decrease.
  3. With decreasing availability, the energy cost of energy production, and the destruction resulting from energy production, will increase.
  4. The pollution from burning fossil fuels is overwhelming the planets ecological ability to process, or recycle, that pollution. The results of this excess is changing those ecological systems and producing climate change.
  5. The potential energy, and pollution, cost of replacing fossil fuels with renewables could be enormous.

In other words the way we have had of maintaining and generating our survival and way of life, undermines survival and way of life, and is likely to come to an end in any case.

Continuing to use fossil fuels increases the likelihood of dramatic instability in weather patterns, sea level rises, water shortages, floods and agricultural shortages. This will likely increase movements of people and produce armed conflicts. Increased temperatures will, in many already warm places such as Australia, make outside labour difficult and possibly harmful for labourers; this will possibly slow production. It also needs to be added that there are other pressures on the ecology as described by ‘Donut economics’ and planetary boundary theory: such as chemical pollution, nitrogen and phosphorus cycle disruptions, biodiversity loss, particulate pollution and so on. Production of chemical fertilisers may not be energy efficient, when joined with the loss of nutriments through disposal of waste, as when phosphorus is flushed into the sea (the real “metabolic rift”).

We may also have stretched the use of other resources to near their limits, which make production that depends on use of those resources, harder and more expensive. In one formulation, we have taken the easily obtained, “low hanging fruit,” and further fruit will require more energy expenditure to obtain, and this expenditure will likely increase over time. The fruit analogy gets broken, when we realise that the ‘fruit’ we have taken is unlikely to all grow back.

With a growing scarcity of easily available energy and resources (even without increased climate instability), economic growth and production (transformation of materials) will slow, and possibly decline.

“A reasonable hypothesis is to consider that our economy will not be able to grow faster than the energy supply.”

According to Jancovici’s figures (based on those provided by the World Bank), a decrease in the growth rate of GDP per capita, seems to have been happening in the developed world since the 1970s. World growth since then has largely come about through the increased use of energy in the developing world:

“no major old industrialized country has done better than a 1% per year growth on average for the GDP per capita over the first decade of the 21st century.”

With an economic slowdown, it will be harder to make a transition to a decarbonised economy and to lower pollution and chances of wild climate instability. The monetary capital will be less available and the costs of transformation are significant. They involve (at the least): changes in building insulation and design to lessen the need for air conditioning and heating; energy efficiency; transformation of water use and slowing our loss of drinkable water; transformation of agriculture to require less fertilizer and lower emissions; and massive replacement of fossil fuel dependent vehicles, changes in transport patterns, and corresponding changes in city layouts.

There is also the cost of moving into renewables when this is a product which does not provide a new service or a significant price reduction, but does involve significant reorganisations of grid requirements, transfer of energy over large distances (with resulting energy loss), changes in landscape usage and changes of energy transformation (and waste products) in manufacture and transport.

Renewables and storage may also involve transformation of resources with finite and increasingly difficult supply, such as lithium (remember economies are about transformation of materials). It may be that energy output per energy input may be better for renewables, as we don’t need to gather the resources to power them, once installed, but I don’t know.

This all takes lots of energy and capital, and is unlikely to be very profitable without taxpayer subsidy, so it is unlikely to happen through the market.

Certainly it appears that renewables may reduce the price of electricity, but price reductions can lead to more usage (Jevons effect), and hence further stress the system. In 2015 fossil fuels provided, in general, 80% of available energy, the rest was largely provided by hydro, nuclear, and biofuels (not by solar and wind); so the amount of work that needs to be done, and energy expended to transform, is huge.

Some forms of renewable energy can feed into destruction, as when biofuels remove waste which would function as fertiliser, or when they lead to deforestation and lessening of food production.

Replacing all fossil fuel and outputs through burning (especially in transport) requires a major and possibly ‘excessive’ level of investment as renewables may need to be able to over-supply energy to guarantee a constant minimum transmission of energy (although this may not be as necessary as is sometimes claimed, as people can adapt to fluctuating energy flows and did with relative ease 40 years ago). Over-supply of renewables is likely to cause conflicts over land use, as renewables tend to take large areas of land. Storage and release, in batteries, always involves an energy loss, and may also lower the quality of the storage medium. In other words storage mediums tend to decay.

Generating ‘sustainability’ (whatever that is) requires resource and energy usage, and we do not know how much it will take to get there, or what culturally defined “needs” actually need to be satisfied. As Jancovici says:

“Have we ‘met our needs’ when we have 100 square feet of heated living space per person, or will it be the case only when every inhabitant on Earth will own 1500 square feet with central heating, air con, plus a jacuzzi and a private spa?”

These individual needs may conflict with collective needs for survival, with the governance processes for separating them being quite difficult. Similarly, is it possible to be ‘sustainable’ and experience perpetual growth in prosperity, or to extend current living standards (together with the energy use required) to everyone in the world? Will such an extension also require a change in economics and governance? The speed of any such transformation will depend on the politics of the distribution of economic proceeds of the change, or lack of change.

Most of these changes involve changes in society, and threats to established power relations, which also brings up obstacles to them. If the owners and controllers of economic and energy machinery oppose transformation or suck away the profits, it will make transformation slower.

This is what we are observing at the moment. There appears to be a large popular awareness of the need for transformation, but there seems to be little political will to engage in conflict with the power of resistant private capital. Given that money, energy and materials may be short, governments may need to promote public projects in renewable energy, and that requires the possibility of offending powerful and wealthy people and organisations. However, it seems clear that any project that depends on oil or coal production continuing to be cheap should not be encouraged.

A sustainable economy must be able to extract the production of resources to keep the economy going. It must be able to provide energy for its machines, and food, shelter and relatively good health for the people within it.

“if we don’t finance the ‘good’ transition, we will get an economic collapse,”

and

“The sooner we move in the direction of massive ‘decarbonization’ of Europe, the higher our chances are to export what we have found (techniques, systems, ways of thinking) elsewhere.”

More on Population and River flow

February 22, 2019

I have a somewhat cynical tendency to think that blaming population is a way that Western people (of a largely Protestant heritage) like dealing with climate change because it absolves them. Population growth is not happening because of ‘us’, it has happening because of people in India, China (now the one child policy is gone) and because of Muslims and Catholics who breed uncontrollably. This could be seen as an example of social category theory in action: it is an outgroup that is the problem, not us.

It probably does need to be said population could become a problem. 100 billion people is probably too many for any kind of civilization to survive and it probably would alter nature irreparably however we lived or died. We need to deal with population, but it is not our primary problem at the moment. It just intensifies the problem – we would still be in a mess if population growth stopped immediately.

A bigger issue is the question of how much in the way of resources people consume. The Murray Darling’s water was largely consumed by business, and these businesses were draining the water not because of population, but because of the demands that business always grow and because government values business over the environment (and everything else, we might add). Water could have been held back, but as we know through an article in the SMH yesterday, more water was allocated to business despite knowledge of the likely pressures faced by the river and its marginal safety. There was no consideration for the environment at all.

We have this reinforced by the official Coalition sponsored report which surprisingly mentions the forbidden term ‘climate change’ to explain the problem. [“The fish death events in the lower Darling were preceded and affected by exceptional climatic conditions, unparalleled in the observed climate record“. and “The recent extreme weather events in the northern Basin have been amplified by climate change.”] However, it hardly mentions irrigation usage at all. It also does not mention the facts that these irrigation businesses appear to have stolen water and engaged in fraud to get more water. Business as a explanatory cause is even more forbidden to the Right than ‘climate change’.

This has nothing to do with population – it has to do with an ideology that says business, and short term profit, must come first.

However, if we are going to blame population then how many people do we have to kill to solve the issue? 2 billion? 3 Billion? Reduction cannot happen naturally fast enough.

We as a population in Australia consume and destroy far, far more (massively more) than an equivalent population of people in India. Again this points to the fact that degree and style of consumption of resources by a population is the problem, not the population by itself. If the Average person in Australia or the US consumes 20 or more times what the average person does in China should we wipe out Australians or Chinese? It would clearly be more economic and easier to wipe out Australians and people in the US. Is that such an attractive proposition?

However, if we could solve the Murray-Darling crisis by penalising or regulating a few inappropriate businesses who use way too much water, wouldn’t that be easier and better? If businesses cannot work with the Murray Darling flowing, then they should not be there.

Clearly if we think that people in India or China have to consume as much as we have done, or as much as our businesses do, then there will be a problem in the future. Perhaps a solution is that we should consume and destroy less, rather than they consume and destroy more? But, in any case, lets not distract ourselves with future problems when we have problems which are being generated now, and can be fixed now through being aware of what they are.

Population and Rivers

February 15, 2019

The other day, Dick Smith (a retired Australian businessman), launched an advertisement asking “why don’t you link the Murray Darling crisis to record population growth?”

Now it is true that infinite population growth is not sustainable in any situation, so population growth is a problem. However it is not what has caused the Murray Darling issue NOW. Current population figures do not necessitate pumping the river dry for cotton, or for other large scale agri-businesses. Partly because the cotton and food is largely grown for export: we don’t even process the cotton into goods for sale overseas. It is pretty much independent of the current population size in Australia.

Talking of population is, in this case, an avoidance of the real ‘elephant in the room’ – business – and the idea that business must always grow. If business must always grow then, in the current situation, it will always attempt to consume more water, more raw materials, and extract as much as it can from the land. This is irrespective of population growth. And these actions become particularly bad when the government thinks its main priority is increase the profit of big business, and to increase the consumption or extraction of limited natural resources by such businesses (to keep them going). And that thinking and action is well documented. The Right in particular govern for business profit alone.

Population growth may add to the pressures, but it does so in an environment which makes development, and high profit for some, more important than water conservation or conservation of land for food production and wildlife.

This is the ideology of neoliberalism. Profit and growth of profit is the only thing that counts.

Maybe we do need to slow population growth, but don’t pretend that will solve problems generated by business and compliant government.

Tax cuts

February 5, 2019

Why tax cuts are not always good:

a) They ignore the benefits that flow when the taxes are spent to do useful things for most people, such as provide open insurance for sickness, support for loss of work, public parks, museums, libraries, useful science and medical research projects, support for developing companies, courts, non-commercial broadcasting, old age pensions etc… Life without these services would be much harder.

b) It does not necessarily encourage wealthy people to do more work – they just got a massive pay increase for doing nothing (or political agitating), and tend to think getting tax cuts is better than working harder or smarter.

c) There is no evidence of a correlation between high tax rates and low rates of ‘growth’ or low living standards for most people. In fact poor countries tend to have much lower rates of total taxation than the rich ones.

d) Tax cuts are popular not because they work, but because high income, and hence powerful, people and organisations end up with more money for nothing, and low income people end up with lower benefits, and hence have to work more for less. It is a system which makes life worse for the majority, but cements power for the wealthy.

the right and your death

January 12, 2019

Let’s think about a few things in Australia.

We have massive river disruption and dead fish because of handing water to agricultural corporations, apparently corrupt management and the rural party not wanting to look ‘green’.

We have coal mines contaminating limited water supplies near the city of Sydney and for the whole artesian basin which is vital for inland water.

We have coal mines being freed from any regulation which might help local people breathe easy.

We have high rise residential buildings cracking up because of privatized quality control.

We have right wing media lying about climate change and the ice caps.

We have a dying barrier reef.

We have taxpayers’ money being spent on roads which destroy houses and suburbs.

We have unfiltered pollution stacks concentrating road tunnel pollution onto residents and schools.

We have taxpayers’ money subsidizing coal and oil and road tolling.

We are encouraging deforestation and loss of natural habitat for even iconic animals like Koalas.

We have hospitals being demolished for property developers and replaced with hospitals an hours ride further away, so that people with heart attacks and strokes will suffer permanent damage.

We find it easy to spend lots of taxpayers’ money chasing up and impoverishing tends of thousands of people on welfare, but its too expensive to find out if private Aged care facilities, supported by the taxpayers, are starving their inmates to increase profit.

What does this all mean?

It is simple. The Right want to kill you for corporate profit. That’s it. That’s their coordinating policy – your death.

Complexity and social life again

January 5, 2019

Another attempt to summarise the relations between complexity theory and social life.

i. Complex systems are nearly always in flux and prone to changes. They can be in dynamic equilibrium (although not in stasis), but are not necessarily so. They are subject to accident, either external or internal. Modes of analysis which work at one time may not at another, because of subtle differences in the system, there is always some ongoing variation.

ii. Complex systems can be ‘maladaptive’ as well as adaptive and their adaptation need not be beneficial for humans.

iii. Complex systems interact and have fuzzy boundaries. Social, political, economic, technical and environmental processes are frequently isolated from each other for analytical purposes, but in reality they often interact. These systems do not need to interact harmoniously. For example, the economic system can disrupt the ecological system (which in turn disrupts the economic system), the technical system can change economics and so on.

iv. Systems (particularly biological ones) can seem complex all the way down. For example, humans are colonies of creatures both at the cellular level and in the amount of non-genetically related life that lives in them, and soils can differ in creatural content (micro-ecologies) over quite small distances.

v. Complex systems and their subsystems are unpredictable in specific. As they interact with other systems they are always being affected by apparent ‘externalities’ as well as internal complications and variations. Assuming no major change of equilibrium, trends may sometimes be predicted. For example, we can predict that global warming will produce wilder weather, but we cannot predict uniform heat increases everywhere, and we cannot predict the weather in a particular place in exactly three years’ time.

vi. Small changes can make big differences in system behaviour; as with relatively small changes of temperature. Complex systems can be disrupted by the accumulation of stress which produces ‘tipping points’, after which the system may make an irreversible change into a new form of dynamic equilibrium with only marginal connections to previous states. Tipping points may not always be perceptible beforehand. Changes of system state may also be relatively quick, and if the pressures continue, more changes can follow – this is not necessarily a transition between two stable states (start and end). This possibility of rapid system change increases general unpredictability.

vii. In complex systems, all human (and other) acts/events have the possibility of being followed by unpredictable, disruptive and disorderly-appearing consequences, no matter how good we think the act. In complex systems, it may also be hard to tell which, of all the events that chronologically succeed the human acts, result from those acts. We are not always able to control the results of even a simple interaction between two people.

viii. Technologies may be implemented or designed to increase control or extend a group’s power. As the technologies tend to add or change links between parts of the system, and change relative influence, the results of the technology may be disruptive in all kinds of spheres. At least they may have unintended results and open up unimagined courses of action – as when the automobile changed the patterns of people lives, their accident patterns and the layout of cities.

ix. Unpredictability of specific events, implies that both politics, trading and implementing new technologies, are ‘arts’ involving uncertainty and unintended consequences. This seems more realistic than most views of economics and social action in which uncertainty and unintended consequences are seen as secondary. There is no correct program as such, only a feeling towards a useful direction.

x. Complexity means that analysis/perception of the system (even the perceived borders of the system) will always vary given a person’s position in that system. Therefore there is rarely much unity as to how the systems work, what should be done or a good guides to political action.

xi. Partial and incomplete understanding is normal. With no complete understanding, politics (and planning) is an art of attention to what is happening, together with an ability to try out actions and change them as feedback emerges.

xii. Markets do not give out or represent perfect information, partly because markets are not bounded, but because distortion of information and production of misinformation is a normal political/persuasive tool of marketing and profit and an integral part of capitalist markets and politics, not an aberration.

xiii. Some highly important complex systems can excluded from consideration by, or become invisible to, members of other systems, because of a history of power relations.
For example, environments are largely invisible in classical economics, as sacrificing ecologies has so far made money, with the costs of that sacrifice not counting to the companies involved, even if it counts to the other people and beings living in that ecology. If profit is the ultimate value (or trait of survival) and profit is cut by environmental care, then there is always an incentive not to care, to distort information about that lack of care, or suppress those who do care. Environmental destruction is boosted because environment cannot be valued in the neoclassical frameworks which have grown around this despoilation (other than in an arbitrary, gameable, monetary sense). However, on a finite planet, economics is eventually disrupted by an environmental destruction which cannot be left behind. Environment or natural ecologies are not subordinate to economics. Economies are part of ecologies.
Political decisions and systems affect economics and vice versa, but this is frequently denied. Politics forms the context of economic acts and the rewards available, and economic actors compete within the State for market influence and suppression of other actors, as much as they compete in the market. Unequal wealth allows more political distortion of markets. There is no one set of politics in play at any one time. On the other hand economics forms the context of politics can limit what is possible within the systems.

xiv. As complex systems flux, decisions and procedures which work well in one series of situations are not necessarily very good in another, or if they are applied more rigorously than previously. They can be ‘extended’ to systems or subsystems where they are inappropriate, or ‘intensified’ so that they become disruptive. Systems tend to produce self-disruptive results as their order is intensified.

xv. Sustainability, in the sense of preserving a system in a particular state without change, may be impossible, but systems can be maintained in better or worse states for humans.

xvi. As flux is normal, the results of policies and acts are unpredictable and unclear, and views of the systems partial, politics is always argumentative.

xvii. Humans have complex needs that depend on the systems they participate in. Utility arises within fluxing systems (cultural, technical, power relations), it is not priori, or ‘natural.’ Consequently value is never fixed. For example, what the powerful do, is nearly always considered to be of greater utility and value than what less powerful people do (and this may change as power relations change). Various materials may only have value if the technical, or other, systems require them, etc.

xviii. Humans also have non-economic needs, such as a sense of, or relationship to, the place/ecology they live within, health, companionship, trust, stories and so on. Welfare cannot be completely accounted for by money and goods.

xix. Money may not reflect all human needs, and attempting to reduce needs to money may disrupt awareness of what people need.

xx. Money has utility and is complex like other utilities, becoming a commodity of variable worth, on the market. Putting a monetary value on one’s child’s life, for example, is difficult. Limiting ideas of welfare to what can be bought and what it is bought with, automatically produces bad conditions for poorer people and disrupts the economy.

xxi. In the production of ‘goods,’ economies produce waste and potential harms. If the byproducts of production cannot be processed by the ecology it is dumped in, or the waste is poisonous to humans or other creatures and plants then it can be called ‘pollution’.

xxii. The question arises: ‘is it possible to have an economy without pollution? The distribution of waste and harm, might be as fundamental to political economy as production, exchange or distribution. Waste is dumped on those who lose power battles, or who have already been despoiled. Pollution requires particular relations of power, responsibility and allocation.

xxiii. What is defined as private property, or public waste, can appear to depend on power relations. This power can be expressed as, issued regulations, the use or threat of violence to exclude others, or exclude other items, from being valued, and the ways of determining and enforcing who or what can be sacrificed for ‘success’ (as well as what counts as success). What counts as commons, also depends on power and defense against appropriation.

xxiv. ‘Development’ is often seen in terms of increasing total levels of wealth and military security, with some people being marginalised and sacrificed for that aim. It is another example of the interaction of politics and economy. As development is emulative and competitive, it often aims to emulate the prosperity of capitalism.

xxv. Development can often produce destruction, when wedded to fixed procedures, as when it is seen as tied to coal power. Then it creates coal power interests who fight to stop other forms of power and spread coal elsewhere.