Posts Tagged ‘problems’

Dealing with Complexity again

August 8, 2022

This is a summary of an fairly straight forward book.. Jenifer Garvey Berger’s Unlocking Leadership Mind Traps: How to thrive in Complexity.

The book essentially argues that our ways of approaching complex and uncertain problems is likely to generate even more problems, because of psychological programming (or perhaps human nature – I’m not going to assume these problems are universal). Non-work lives do not help either, as we have a lot of interconnecting and interrupting problems to face even when we are not at work, and this takes away lack of urgency from around the problems and piles on the pressure. There is no space for slow thinking or contemplation. Our issues get worse.

The five psycho-social problems involve

  • Simplification
  • Rightness
  • Agreement
  • Control
  • Ego protection

So lets look at what this involves….

Simplification: Using simple and repetitive stories

Humans tend to live by simple stories, which fit into a standard narrative frame. These stories can help bond us together, because they are, or become, shared. However, simple stories narrow focus and freeze creativity….

It is common that we use repetitive stories to give ourselves an interpretations of events, without bothering to check if they are true…. We may see people in specific (and repeated) roles, such as being unhelpful, hostile, or even evil. We may see ourselves as perpetually failing, or suffering, or triumphing, and add more examples to ‘illustrate’ our stories. We turn fragments of ‘evidence’ into a familiar story, or plug them into familiar stories, and that often seems like its enough. Without any check whatsoever if the story is true… We may not even know what we are doing.

We don’t look for new solutions or new information, because we feel we ‘know’ what happened, because of the story we tell ourselves. Not only is our story likely to be wrong, because the world is complex, but it is likely to shape what we perceive and what we ignore. It is also likely to replace complex interactional causality, with linear causality, to make the explanation easy. People are also likely to give a story a beginning and an end, when in complex systems beginnings and endings may never be clear.

The simplicity of stories tends to mean that we feel it is ok to simplify the world. We don’t have to look for unexpected connections, or unexpected causalities, unintentional consequences and so on – all of which are features of normal life in complex systems.

One way to get out of this harmful simplicity, is to see if we can tell multiple stories, change people’s roles in the story etc… tell the story from other people’s point of view (as our views of any complex system are likely to be different). We can add things which might seem irrelevant. We can wonder how the story or the simplification could be wrong. The more stories we can tell the more we might notice or imagine.

We may not be able to avoid simple stories, and simplifications, but we don’t have to believe them, and we can expand the range of possible events we consider, or even just change the story…..

A simple story in a complex world is probably wrong.

Rightness

We often think something is correct because it feels right, and assume we are right most of the time, or again we may get carried away by the story. We seek data that confirms our rightness, rather than our wrongness, and we tend to reinforce this attitude by ignoring areas in which we are uncertain – It is other people who are wrong and need teaching, rather than ourselves who need to learn.

Being right has similar problems to reducing things to simple stories, it causes us to ignore things which may be going on. It can also cause us to make situations worse, as we ignore data that is telling us we are wrong, when we cannot be. People thinking they are inevitably right, are dangerous.

If you feel certain about something then ask questions, anyway….

Agreement

Agreement is not inherently bad, but Humans tend to agree with people who they identify with too quickly. If everyone has the same bias, then an agreement can just reinforce that bias, and again stop exploration. Agreement gives us a sense of belonging in the chaos, and thus reassurance we are right, or that it is not just our fault if everything goes wrong. On the other hand, people may disagree with people they identify with as outgroup, as quickly as they agree with those defined as ingroup. As usual this process removes information from people.

Try disagreeing to expand our sense of the problem.

Control

Complex systems are very hard to control, or to master. They slip out of our hands or our machines. Yet in modern societies, its generally expected that leaders be in control, so leaders can insist on simple targets which are actually distractions from the real job. They can assume that because some practice has worked before, it will automatically work again.

Leadership in complex systems involves letting go and allowing things to happen, in the best way that seems to be possible.

We cannot control many outcomes, but we can influence, conditions, events and what is emerging – having a direction rather than a fixed destination. We can experiment, without knowing what will happen in advance.

Ego protection

We can’t avoid egos, because we cannot perceive or understand everything; we simplify, we try to fit in and be part of the ingroup, we try to control our lives, random events and other people, and so on. In a sense, our sense of self is unreal or dependent on what we think others will want or observe, and we try to protect it from attack from others, and attack from the world. We try and protect our reputations, and our group membership and respect, rather than reacting to the world as it is, and so on. Protecting our ego is to some extent trying to enforce the past, and not react to the present, or our present position.

Summary

The problem is that complexity is not simple. It is not possible to know everything relevant about a complex system, although we might model it well enough for short term purposes.

Our habits of:

  • Isolating simple parts of reality and giving them prominence, and linking everything together through standard stories which we use as detailed interpretative maps of reality
  • Of insisting that we are right, and know everything important
  • Of reinforcing our rightness by agreement, so that understanding becomes a group activity tied into identity, which reinforces the processes of not looking for alternatives or exceptions
  • Of trying to control and force the system to behave in particular ways, and being upset when there are unintended and disruptive consequences,
  • Of trying to not risk our status, and keep in well with those people in our ingroup

All increase the tendency to ignore reality and make it personally and socially acceptable, so we tend not to deal with complexity, or life, very well. As a result, we can head towards some kind of destruction.

Realising these 5 processes are mind traps, not mind virtues, helps us to undo them and get more perception and information. This can be thought of as a negative process. Lowering the influence of the mind traps won’t ensure you can deal with complexity, but it will help. It’s a basic first step.

Another problem occurs when we have political movements which get trapped in these processes, and we ignore the world’s complexity and attempt to suppress that complexity. This may work for a while, but the long term prospects are not good. As I’ve said before, in an organisation which reinforces the mind traps with a punitive hierarchy, punishing people for not agreeing with the organisation’s stories, their rightness and demands for control, then the upper layers of the organisation will have very little idea of what is going on, as people will make sure they don’t tell those people anything which will get them punished, and the whole organisation becomes a mind-trap.

This is why some generals make sure they talk to the troops in an informal and safe situation, to find out what is really happening; to get new stories, new information, and stories of failure of control and action. They avoid their officers telling them what those officers think the general wants to hear.

Just as a footnote, it seems to me that talking of complex adaptive systems is a story which helps confuse people. It implies that the systems will adapt to whatever we might do, or that they will adapt to support us. This is simply not necessarily true. Systems can adapt to be hostile to any of the life forms that currently occupy them – especially if those life forms continually disrupt the system.

Why is action on climate change difficult?

August 31, 2021

The problem of climate change can appear unsolvable for a number of reasons:

  1. Contemporary society was built on fossil fuels, which are one of the main source of the greenhouse gases which cause and accelerate the current round of climate change, global heating, or climate turmoil whatever you want to call it.
  2. Contemporary society has also been based on free pollution, and largely free ecological destruction.
  3. Often the free pollution and ecological destruction is performed in places where it is difficult to see; in poor areas, overseas, with hard to perceive substances, etc., so the people consuming it don’t realise. However, it can be quite visible.
  4. All the evidence suggests that we now, need to reduce emissions quickly, to avoid climate change as a severe threat. Reducing quickly adds to the challenge, to the turmoil an disorder produced, and to the resistance.
  5. The fossil fuel, free pollution and ecological destruction system has brought about a technological system which benefits many people all over the world, and hence if we change it (especially if we change it rapidly), those people might lose out on something (whatever that is).
  6. Developing countries want to catch up with developed countries in terms of prosperity, and be militarily secure. The only exemplary path is through using fossil fuels, pollution and eco-destruction. If developing countries use this path, it will send everything over the edge, no matter how fair it is for them to use it.
  7. The developed world is not setting a good example of restraint, why should the developing?
  8. Changing a whole system is really difficult, as the system will resist. Many powerful organisations in society will resist. Technologies are locked-in, and hard to change. Previous investment of money, time and energy in destructive technologies will be ‘wasted’ if we change. Social habits, such as excessive consumption by those who can afford it or world wide travel, support the system.
  9. Powerful organisations benefit from ownership of fossil fuels, and free destruction and they fear change. Change may destroy their power and wealth.
  10. Because these people tend to be hyper-rich, they seem to think that they can survive climate change, and other people are expendable – there are so many of those other people.
  11. Because these people tend to be hyper-rich, they can buy media, they can buy politicians, they can buy think tanks; they can confuse the issue, and console themselves.
  12. Many people think CO2 is harmless, because it is a ‘natural’ product. The problem is that we emit too much of it, for the surviving ecology to process and remove.
  13. People don’t understand non-linear systems, in which small changes can lead to huge changes, and in which events in one place can effect events in another. Complex systems theory, or ‘ecological thinking’, is essential to understanding the world and giving a change of survival.
  14. Many people think it is obvious they know more about climate than people who have worked in it all their lives.
  15. Information society encourages feel-good ignorance, and the judging of information by political alliance.
  16. Action on climate change has been tied into political polarization, and hence it is hard to be on the Right and think about potential solutions without feeling you are betraying the party or your fellows, or that there is no problem to solve. Hence there are few solutions coming from the Right, that appeal to people on the Right, and this lowers the availability of plausible solutions in general.
  17. The media has generally been ‘even handed’ to escapist about climate change. Even now most people do not know how bad it is, or how much the world has been ‘on fire’. Ongoing, depressing news does not sell, and besides most media organisations are part of the corporate sector which appears to benefit from pollution and eco-destruction etc., so they are unlikely to try an undermine the system they grew out of.
  18. It is always easier to run away from problems and pretend everything is ok, or hope that because a system has worked well it will continue to work well.
  19. If we are going to change enough to survive climate change, we have to change the energy system. That is difficult because of established interests. It is also costly, and sets up new problems of energy supply, backup and energy organisation.
  20. Gas does not solve emissions problems. It could be better than coal, but its not better enough: it still has continuing emissions when burnt. Gas mines and gas pipes leak. Unburnt methane (‘natural gas’) is worse for global heating than CO2. Gas is no solution to the current problem or the need to lower emissions quickly.
  21. Nuclear energy could possibly solve the problem, but it seems too expensive. Taxpayers usually end up subsiding insurance, waste disposal and decommissioning. It is also possible reactors may not be quick and easy to build – they often run over cost and over budget. Going with nuclear may prolong fossil fuel emissions while we are waiting for the power stations to be built.
  22. While nuclear accidents seem infrequent, they have the possibility of affecting large areas, and they do. Few people want to live next to a nuclear reactor, so there will be resistance.
  23. Fracking usually makes the climate problem far worse, and runs the risk of poisoning local people. Ask almost anyone who lives in a fracking zone, if they will risk talking to you because of legal issues.
  24. If renewables are primarily installed by a corporate sector which likes free pollution and eco-destruction, then the chances are high that the companies and their renewables will bring these features with them.
  25. If renewables are installed by the kind of businesses that routinely exploit people, override local people, and lower wages and working conditions to increase profit, then they will likely continue to exploit people, override objections and probably not replace the jobs they are destroying.
  26. If renewables are to replace fossil fuels, we have to manufacture them. This could mean either using the energy from fossil fuels, or lowering the energy usage, so we have spare energy for manufacture.
  27. If we are going to survive climate change, we have to change the agricultural system, which has grown up with big farms, artificial fertilisers, economies of scale, free pollution, free eco-destruction and so on. Big agriculture is a source of GHG, deforestation and desertification. Big ag will resist any change, as the current situation seems profitable, even as the land becomes precarious. Change may also disrupt food supplies.
  28. If we are going to prevent climate change then we have to lower deforestation and desertification rates. These both reduce the Earth’s ecological capacity to process CO2 and thus make heating worse. This is hard because there is a continuing demand for both timber and land.
  29. If we are going to stop climate change in the long term, we probably have to shift out of a framework that requires continual economic growth, increasing consumption and increasing extraction. This will be difficult, given the world’s current wealth distribution

The main thing is to do what you can, whatever that is – even small changes can make a difference, as they rocket through the system.

If you can, organise to try and lower pollution and ecological-destruction in your neighbourhood, or by companies who exist in your neighbourhood.

Get on company boards, and try and shift the emphasis.

Lobby your pension fund to avoid destructive and polluting industries. Better still participate in an organised lobby.

Tell your politicians you do not support free pollution (including free greenhouse gas pollution), or free ecological destruction.

If you can afford it, buy real green power, or put solar panels on your roof.

Organise with other people in your community to see if you can arrange a community energy program or share power.

Consume electricity when its cheap.

Consume as little electricity from the grid as possible.

Use as little fossil fuel transport as possible. Covid has shown that many people do not need to travel.

If you can obtain it and afford it, buy as much organic food as you can/need. In many places some organic food is not that much more expensive than non-organic food.

If you can, don’t buy food that has travelled a long way.

Recognise climate change is not a simple problem, and help change as many of the points above as you can….

Decline of the West 07: A typology of problems

August 15, 2021

This leads to a possible typology of problems – there is no need to assume a problem is of only one type. They can be of multiple types.

1) Normal Engineering problems

With apologies to engineers. These are the kinds of problems, where people have a standard method for producing solutions which testably work, and a standard solution set (such as roads, tunnels, bridges, buildings etc). The environment may be complicated, but its not over-complex. It is a matter of solving a series of relatively simple problems. There is little political disagreement which has to be factored in to the solving; although there may be politics about whether the project should go ahead, who is employed to do it and so on, but these arguments do not affect the project. It is just a matter of achieving the aims of the project, and there is large agreement about how that should be done, and that process generally works.

2) Stretched Engineering problems

These are problems in which the solvers may be using new materials, lacking perfect resources, or having to build something slightly outside of normal. The problems may be difficult, and failure is possible, but there is an agreed set of knowledge and procedures to build upon. Surprise, within limits is acceptable, and largely predictable.

After these kinds of problems we hit problems with large disruptive social, or ecological, components.

3) Problems that regularly affect individuals and cannot be solved so far

There are problems which haunt human existence like death. They may affect large numbers of people, but not all at the same time, and the problem is normal and ongoing. Obviously if the death rate rapidly, or noticeably increases that turns this kind of problem into another kind of problem.

4) Problems which primarily afflict the powerless, and the powerful have no incentive to care, or see the problem.

Things like class based hunger, poverty, racial or sexual discrimination, etc. Society is often organised so pollution is dumped on poorer people, and the rich don’t notice it, as they do not travel in those regions, or they can blame those living in those regions for the mess: “how could they live like that?”.

Problems often have a political or economic aspect which makes them worse, and harder to solve.

5) Problems which are generated by the previous solutions to problems, and which appear to have brought what we consider success

Development and capitalism appear to bring about ecological damage at greater rates than ecologies can repair. This is a cause of climate change. Not only success, but wealth and power have been built around these solutions, and this makes it hard to change. It is harder to change the more the elites become smaller, control ideas and prevent new strategies from arising. What will happen if we change is unknown and feared by those elites.

6) Problems for some, which may help others

Freedom from responsibility for pollution, industrial accidents, workplace deaths help increase the profits and success of those who so not see themselves as being at risk of being affected.

On the other hand, trying to solve problems of oppression frequently brings problems for those who previously benefitted, or thought they might benefit from that oppression.

7) Largely preventable problems which are just accepted as part of life

To some extent things like traffic accidents. Gun deaths in the US. Homelessness. Again the cost of fixing them may affect people who cannot be bothered, or who profit from the status quo.

8) Compounding problems

Where one problem makes another worse. For example, it costs money to fix something, and we may not have that money, or it may need to be spent elsewhere. This then allows problems to accumulate, get worse and cost more money. Climate change is such a problem. The longer we leave it, because its too expensive to fix, the worse the damage and decline becomes, and the less spare finance we have to fix it.

9) Wicked Problems.

Problems arising in complex systems, may not appear to be the same problem from different perspectives. There is no definitive knowledge. There may be no easy solution, and it may be hard to recognise when the problem is solved. Solutions may cause other problems. The problems, and solutions, may spill from one field to another. We cannot test the solution before we start using it. Wicked problems are to a degree unique, there is nothing quite like them that we have faced before. There are political struggles which are affected by the most likely solutions.

For example: Climate change is a wicked eco-social problem. We do not understand societies and ecologies very well. They are interconnected. Different people see the problems differently. Stopping fossil fuel burning could cause economic collapse. Continuing fossil fuel burning could cause economic collapse. Ecological collapse makes dealing with climate change more difficult. In general we do not know what side effects our solutions will have before we apply them. Fossil fuel companies don’t want to stop making money from what they know how to do, and have a lot of capital invested in fossil fuel infrastructure which could become valueless, if a solution is found. Politics is geared to support established business, and is generally highly influenced by established business or power centres – there is a high risk in going against that business.

10) Climactic Problems

Problems which have the possibility of destroying any capacity to solve other major problems. These are problems that change everything, and have no precedent in the people involved’s experience. Climate change could be such a problem if it is not solved, so could collapse of the US or British State for people in those countries, a huge meteor strike, the rapid end of oil supplies with no alternatives, etc., but a classic example would be nuclear war. These are problems which need to be prevented from occurring or circumvented, as much as is possible.

11) Ameliorable but non solvable problems

It is possible Covid is now such a problem. That is, it has become a problem which can be made worse or made a little more endurable. It cannot be solved. If states, politicians and big business had not run away from the issue, then it may have been containable, or even solvable, in that sense it was a compounding problem. Given enough time, humans may adapt to live with the disease.

In general

We always need to look for obstacles to problem solving as they are part of the problems we face.

Power and Wealth

Obviously, one of the arguments being presented here is that established patterns of wealth and power can obstruct problem solving, and even depend for their ‘success’ on the problems those patterns generate, not only because those patterns support hierarchies and privilege of various types, but because those patterns have previously (under different circumstances), generated solutions for previous problems.

New strategies for attaining or retaining power can also involve ignoring, dismissing or generating problems.

Arguments over whether the problem is solved.

Whether a problem is solved or swept under the carpet, can be a cause of political fights, as people try to demonstrate they did the best they could, or that they solved the issue and other people disrupted the solution.

Sometimes the fights over the solution, can be more disruptive than the problem.

It is useful to have some kind of agreed benchmark, to say whether the problem is solved. It may be discovered that the benchmark was not adequate, but that is another problem that calls for new agreed benchmarks… However, if agreement cannot be reached, then the problem may become unsolvable, or never be recognised as solved, as it is clearly caught in some kind of social struggle.

STEEPLE

This is simply a mnemonic, a memory prod, to suggest that it is good to get an idea of the contexts of your problem. These contexts will almost certainly involve the following kinds of issues

  • Sociological
  • Technological
  • Ecological
  • Economic
  • Political
  • Legal
  • Ethical

This is just a list. It is supposed to be an aid, not a delimiter of all you might have to look at.

Ambiguity

Complexity implies the world is necessarily ambiguous.

If you look at a situation from one way, you might perceive X, looked at another way you might perceive Y. The different perspectives might not be limited by two – difference can go on to Z to A etc… This is what ‘ambiguity’ means. Politics and ethics exist because of ambiguity.

The different perspectives may conflict and staying with that conflict might give a more real perspective on the situations.

Accepting ambiguity, allows you to be open to more of reality and be less likely to be taken by surprise.

For example: you can see that tackling climate change quickly may lead to economic disadvantage, it may lead to collapse. If you don’t deal with it quickly, it may also lead to collapse. In each case the collapse may affect different people. If you try to replace all fossil fuel energy with renewable energy, where do you get the energy to build the renewables from? If you keep burning fossil fuels what levels of disaster are you heading for? What else needs to change to end ecological destruction?

This recognition of ambiguity and conflicting priorities can be overwhelming, but its real. And it allows a recognition that if we are to live with or halt climate change, we might have to change a great deal more than we want to at this moment.

It also lets us know the path is not going to be smooth, or unresisted. In some ways it is as rational to resist traumatic change, as it is to negotiate it. We don’t know what will happen.

Ambiguity is a problem, but it is a real problem, and it does not help to suppress it and try to make the world process unrealistically simple.

Some problems are urgent but even so

It is usually beneficial to take some time to find out information, although you may not be able to find all the information.

It is often beneficial to pause.

It is often beneficial to observe your dreams and spontaneous images.

It is often beneficial to listen to the world.

It is often beneficial to try things out while being prepared to abandon them if they don’t work.