Posts Tagged ‘climate change’

Just some illos, diagrams, memes whatever////

July 29, 2023

Some people and ecosystems already face or are fast approaching “hard” limits to adaptation, where climate impacts from 1.1 degrees C of global warming are becoming so frequent and severe that no existing adaptation strategies can fully avoid losses and damages.

We are not on a path to achieve these levels of emissions reduction. Up until covid emissions were constantly increasing. Post covid they are increasing again.

We are also clearing forests so the CO2 is not drawn down.

An area the size of Switzerland was cleared from Earth’s most pristine rainforests in 2022, despite promises by world leaders to halt their destruction, new figures show… the equivalent of 11 football pitches of primary rainforest were destroyed every minute last year

Greenfield Destruction of world’s pristine rainforests soared in 2022 despite Cop26 pledge The Guardian 27 Jun 2023

Households with incomes in the top 10%, including a relatively large share in developed countries, emit upwards of 45% of the world’s GHGs, while those families earning in the bottom 50% account for 15% at most. 

Technological innovation vs. regulation in climate policy

May 31, 2023

That technological innovation is preferable to government regulation seems a common idea.

However there are a number of problems with this idea:

Technology is not magic, it will not always eventuate because we need it or because it would be nice if it arose. It may not arrive at the right time, at the right price, be easy to use, be usable at the scale required, or not have dire climate side effects.

‘The Market’ is not magic either, whatever you are told by people who are powerful in The Market. There is no reason to assume that innovative tech will be taken up, or that the best tech will be taken up. What counts, and pretty nearly always what counts, is how the company makes extra profit from it.

Because people think of tech as the magic solution, unworkable tech can be used as an excuse to keep on emitting pollution, and destroying ecologies. Indeed the tech does not even have to be installed to have this affect, as with Carbon Capture and Storage.

If PR and empty hype about technology increase profit more effectively than the technology iteself, then PR and hype will be used more than the technology is. There is no reason to think that the technology will be used.

Without regulation, there is no reason for innovative tech, to stop people from doing damage, especially if the corporation is gaining more profit from continuing as it has done in the way it knows how to.

People in corporations like other people, prefer the world to be smooth and stable, and introducing disruptive technology, may disrupt profits without foreseable good consequences. Hence they will avoid it. Computers took off, because they were an obvious way of standardising behaviour, regulating workers and allowed some tasks to be done much quicker than previously. They, in theory, got more work out of workers, which is always a corporate drive. Climate tech on the whole, does not do any of that.

Climate tech, without regulation may do little. For example renewables can be used to increase the energy supply cheaply, without decreasing the amount of fossil fuels that are used. This seems to be standard in many places, and it is standard in fossil fuel company spending – in which spending on exploration and new fossil fuels is at least 15 to 20 times higher than their spending on renewable development, as shown in this graph, The grey area represents expenditure on exploration for fossil fuels.

There is nothing to guarrantee that a technology will only have the effects we want, and will not be commandeered by standard destructive practice.

All markets depend on regulation, and regulation that can be enforced by the State or through the courts. All markets have power imbalances, which affect the market and its regulation. Succesful and rich companies will team up and try and abuse their position of success to make regulations that favour them. This is normal, and makes useful, generally beneficial, regulation difficult.

Without regulation adding to the pressures, most companies will not actually (as opposed to in PR) change their pollution, dispersion or their destructive extraction and climate change will continue to get worse, irrespective of the tech we have, or the tech we might imagine is coming soon.

Technology is useful, but we should work with the tech we have now, rather than imaginary innovative tech that may happen sometime in the future, or may never come.

We should regulate to impose emissions and destruction reduction. Consequences for breaking regulations should be enforced and should affect profit. Hopefully this would give corporations more incentive to work on the problems.

We should also sponsor technological private and governmental research to get better tech rather than leave it to the corporate sector and the market. After all many tech innovations have come from public money, not private money, and are more easily made available if their are no restrictive patents or copyright issues to face.

The World of Illusion

April 25, 2023

People can choose to live in a ‘world of illusion’ because they don’t always like to face up to challenges, particularly if they have failed to deal with challenges in the past, or they don’t want to recognise that past choices (and support) have led to them to where they are now. Sometimes realities seem too painful to face up to, and sometimes those you identify with and would like to resemble, are those causing the problems you face.

There are also mystical traditions which say that facing up to the reality of eternal bliss now, conflicts with our current ways of life and our views of our self as limited and deserving of punishment.

The point is that recognizing reality can be painful, and disorienting and threatening to our established identity

If there is a major internal, or external struggle/paradox happening then it can be less painful to decide that reality is not threatening to your identity and way of life and, that you and yours, are not creating problems for yourself and everyone.

It is much easier to sell people the idea that they don’t have to do anything, and all will be ok, than to sell them the idea that they (and others) have made bad choices in the past, and that they are likely to suffer as a result, especially if the suffering has only gradually increased.

People also often find it easier to line up to fight irrelevancies, than to struggle against the real problems.

For example:

  • It is easier to fight powerless drag queens, who have very little connection to child rape, than it is to fight people in the religions you believe in, who actually do rape children and have the power to expel you or make you an outcast.
  • It is easier to side with fossil fuel companies and denounce the ‘liberal elite’ and the ‘scientific conspiracy’ than it is to admit that your use of fossil fuels, and products using fossil fuels, is causing a problem which may lead to you losing your home, and that you need to change your whole way of life to tackle climate change. Especially given the change comes without a guide, and great uncertainty as to how you would live.
  • It is easier to say renewables will solve everything than it is to deal with the problems of renewables, or the problems of the system they are embedded in.

All of us do this all the time, unless we start to realize it. Its difficult to face up to the likelihood we have been choosing to live in a world of illusion.

UN Secretary Generals video message on the Synthesis Report

March 22, 2023

This is pretty straightforwardly a reproduction of the original with a bit of abridgement and reformatting.

If there is a copyright issue please let me know in the comments, and I will remove it.

*************

Dear friends,

Humanity is on thin ice – and that ice is melting fast. 

As today’s report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) details, humans are responsible for virtually all global heating over the last 200 years. 

The rate of temperature rise in the last half century is the highest in 2,000 years.

Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest in at least two million years.

The climate time-bomb is ticking. 

But today’s IPCC report is a how-to guide to defuse the climate time-bomb.

It is a survival guide for humanity. 

As it shows, the 1.5-degree limit is achievable.

But it will take a quantum leap in climate action.

This report is a clarion call to massively fast-track climate efforts by every country and every sector and on every timeframe.

In short, our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once. 

I have proposed to the G20 a Climate Solidarity Pact – in which all big emitters make extra efforts to cut emissions, and wealthier countries mobilize financial and technical resources to support emerging economies in a common effort to keep 1.5 degrees alive.  

Today, I am presenting a plan to super-charge efforts to achieve this Climate Solidarity Pact through an all-hands-on-deck Acceleration Agenda.

It starts with parties immediately hitting the fast-forward button on their net zero deadlines to get to global net zero by 2050 – in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances.
 
Specifically, leaders of developed countries must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2040, the limit they should all aim to respect.
 
This can be done.  Some have already set a target as early as 2035.

Leaders in emerging economies must commit to reaching net zero as close as possible to 2050 – again, the limit they should all aim to respect.

A number have already made the 2050 commitment. 

This is the moment for all G20 members to come together in a joint effort, pooling their resources and scientific capacities as well as their proven and affordable technologies through the public and private sectors to make carbon neutrality a reality by 2050.

Every country must be part of the solution. 

Demanding others move first only ensures humanity comes last.

The Acceleration Agenda calls for a number of other actions.

Specifically:

  • No new coal and the phasing out of coal by 2030 in OECD countries and 2040 in all other countries.
  • Ending all international public and private funding of coal.
  • Ensuring net zero electricity generation by 2035 for all developed countries and 2040 for the rest of the world.
  • Ceasing all licensing or funding of new oil and gas – consistent with the findings of the International Energy Agency.
  • Stopping any expansion of existing oil and gas reserves.
  • Shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to a just energy transition.
  • Establishing a global phase down of existing oil and gas production compatible with the 2050 global net zero target.

I urge all governments to prepare energy transition plans consistent with these actions and ready for investors.

I am also calling on CEOs of all oil and gas companies to be part of the solution.

They should present credible, comprehensive and detailed transition plans in line with the recommendations of my High-Level Expert Group on net zero pledges.

These plans must clearly detail actual emission cuts for 2025 and 2030, and efforts to change business models to phase out fossil fuels and scale up renewable energy.

This acceleration has already started in some sectors, but investors now need crystal clear signals.

And all governments need the assurance that business leaders will help them deliver on extra efforts – but governments must also create an enabling policy and regulatory environment.

Shipping, aviation, steel, cement, aluminum, agriculture – every sector must be aligned with net zero by 2050 with clear plans including interim targets to get there.

At the same time, we need to seize the opportunity to invest in credible innovations that can contribute to reaching our global targets. 

We must also speed-up efforts to deliver climate justice to those on the frontlines of many crises – none of them they caused. 

We can do this by:

  • Safeguarding the most vulnerable communities, and scaling up finance and capacities for adaptation and loss and damage.
  • Promoting reforms to ensure Multilateral Development Banks provide more grants and concessional loans and fully mobilize private finance.
  • Delivering on the financial commitments made in Copenhagen, Paris and Glasgow.
  • Replenishing the Green Climate Fund this year and developing a roadmap to double adaptation finance before 2025.
  • Protecting everyone with early warning systems against natural disasters in four years.
  • Implementing the new loss and damage fund this year.

The longer we wait on any of these crucial issues, the harder it will become.

…..

The transition must cover the entire economy.

Partial pledges won’t cut it….

We have never been better equipped to solve the climate challenge – but we must move into warp speed climate action now.

We don’t have a moment to lose.

Thank you.

IPCC: Summary of 2023 Synthesis Report

March 21, 2023

Most of this is quotations from The Synthesis Report Summary.

Optimism

Deep, rapid, and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions would lead to a discernible slowdown in global warming within around two decades, and also to discernible changes in atmospheric composition within a few years (high confidence).

The rate of growth in emissions between 2010 and 2019 (1.3% year) was lower than that between 2000 and 2009 (2.1% year).

Maintaining emission-intensive systems may, in some regions and sectors, be more expensive than transitioning to low emission systems [however the question for business is, which is the most profitable on the whole, and which loses the least already made capital investment?]

The Situation with GHG Emissions

Global net anthropogenic GHG emissions have been estimated to be 59±6.6 GtCO2-eq in 2019

In 2019, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (410 parts per million) were higher than at any time in at least 2 million years (high confidence), and concentrations of methane (1866 parts per billion) and nitrous oxide (332 parts per billion) were higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years (very high confidence). [we are headed towards a non-human world.

Emissions reductions in CO2-FFI [from fossil-fuel combustion and industrial] due to improvements in energy intensity of GDP and carbon intensity of energy, have been less than emissions increases from rising global activity levels in industry, energy supply, transport, agriculture and buildings.

If the annual CO2 emissions between 2020–2030 stayed, on average, at the same level as 2019, the resulting cumulative emissions would almost exhaust the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C (50%), and deplete more than a third of the remaining carbon budget for 2°C (67%). Estimates of future CO2 emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructures without additional abatement already exceed the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C (50%) (high confidence). [It is logical to assume that no new gas and oil sources are needed]

[Bad news is that at current rates of reduction ie policy failure we are locked-in for between 2 and 4 degrees increase. The higher ends of that is catastrophic.]

Some Effects

In all regions increases in extreme heat events have resulted in human mortality and morbidity (very high confidence). The occurrence of climate-related food-borne and water-borne diseases (very high confidence) and the incidence of vector-borne diseases (high confidence) have increased. In assessed regions, some mental health challenges are associated with increasing temperatures (high confidence), trauma from extreme events (very high confidence), and loss of livelihoods and culture (high confidence).

Economic damages from climate change have been detected in climate-exposed sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy, and tourism. Individual livelihoods have been affected through, for example, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss of property and income, human health and food security, with adverse effects on gender and social equity.(high confidence).

In urban areas, observed climate change has caused adverse impacts on human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure. Hot extremes have intensified in cities. Urban infrastructure, including transportation, water, sanitation and energy systems have been compromised by extreme and slow-onset events, with resulting economic losses, disruptions of services and negative impacts to well-being. Observed adverse impacts are concentrated amongst economically and socially marginalised urban residents.

[increasing drought, fires, infectious diseases, floods, displacement, glacier retreat, ocean acidification]

Challenges

There are widening disparities between the estimated costs of adaptation and the finance allocated to adaptation.

Climate finance growth has slowed since 2018

The IPCC still thinks Carbon Capture & Storage is required. which basically blows any optimism for me.

[However they recognise this problem]: Implementation of CCS currently faces technological, economic, institutional, ecological, environmental and socio-cultural barriers. Currently, global rates of CCS deployment are far below those in modelled pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C to 2°C.

The report also says over-reliance tree planting and biomass crops paired with CCS, can have adverse socio-economic and environmental impacts, including on biodiversity, food and water security, local livelihoods and the rights of Indigenous Peoples, especially if implemented at large scales and where land tenure is insecure.

Net zero CO2 energy systems entail: a substantial reduction in overall fossil fuel use, minimal use of unabated fossil fuels, and use of carbon capture and storage in the remaining fossil fuel systems; electricity systems that emit no net CO2; widespread electrification; alternative energy carriers in applications less amenable to electrification; energy conservation and efficiency; and greater integration across the energy system (high confidence).

The press release also states: The pace and scale of what has been done so far, and current plans, are insufficient to tackle climate change.

Consequences of not acting now

The higher the magnitude and the longer the duration of overshoot, the more ecosystems and societies are exposed to greater and more widespread changes in climatic impact-drivers, increasing risks for many natural and human systems…. Overshooting 1.5°C will result in irreversible adverse impacts on certain ecosystems with low resilience, such as polar, mountain, and coastal ecosystems, impacted by ice-sheet, glacier melt, or by accelerating and higher committed sea level rise

The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years (high confidence).

Climate change and new paradigms

January 3, 2023

‘Paradigms’ are typical patterns of thought, acceptance of thought, together with research practices. They provide guides for people. In his 1962 book, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, which gave the term its current common meaning, Kuhn defined scientific paradigms as: “universally recognized scientific achievements that, for a time, provide model problems and solutions to a community of practitioners”.

One question that arises quite often is whether climate change is simply a paradigm that will be abandoned, or whether it will be stable. The basic theory that CO2 and other greenhouse gases can act as a blanket (or greenhouse) holding in heat, and causing warming, has stood for well over 100 years. The observations indicating global warming have been going on for about 50-70 years, so climate change is as well established as a fact as any science can be. Almost certainly the paradigm and the interpretation of global warming will change and grow with more research and modelling, but that does not mean it is wrong, or that it has not contributed shifts to thought, producing new paradigms, already.

In my opinion, a major paradigm shift has happened over the last 40 years largely due to climate studies.

Many people nowadays understand weather, climate and ecologies (and societies) as complex/chaotic systems, which have particular properties, which were previously unexpected.

For example, while these systems normally function under an unstable equilibrium, changes and stress in the system can build up, so that the systems can rapidly change state, even in human terms. In retrospect we call these places which begin the rapid change ‘tipping points’. We can predict that there will be tipping points in climate change when methane is released from the ocean, or the currently frozen tundras or the ice caps melt. Other tipping points may emerge when forests turn into net carbon emitters and so on.

While previously we thought significant climate change (without a massive accident such as meteorite collision) happened slowly in human terms, now we know it can happen quickly. We also know more about the conditions of ‘great extinctions’ and ‘ocean death’ and so are aware that we are building the conditions towards these kinds of events.

We also know that it is extremely difficult and perhaps impossible to predict the state of a complex system in the future. The further into the future the less likely we can predict its state. Consequently all we can predict is increasing climate turmoil, droughts, massive bush fires, storms, flooding, changes in temperature and so on. It is hard to tell people in, say, London, they will experience this kind of weather, this kind of temperature change etc. The gulf stream may drop away due to global heating, and the weather may get colder in London. All we can really and truthfully predict is that the change will hurt people more, and cause social instability.

This lack of accuracy in prediction is something that is often used to deny climate change, (“they said it would get hotter and dryer, but its flooding”). However, it’s hard to predict the weather 3 or 4 weeks in advance, and we are now dealing with constantly changing weather patterns, moving into situations we have not encountered before, so prediction gets more difficult – and the more the system departs from its previous equilibrium states, the worse this will get.

People have also been looking more at the social dynamics of climate change, as that is a major factor in what will happen. So far we can say, governments and businesses are nearly all failing dismally to deal with the problem, and have been since the 1990s. This is probably because of the amount of propaganda issued by powerful corporations and their hangers on, telling us the science is uncertain, or that remedies are too costly.

We are discovering the truth of many previous theories of social collapse – basically the dominating classes want to hang on to their habits, riches and power and the only way they think they can respond is by continuing the situation which has brought them riches and power – to hell with everyone else. As a result society is stuck with solutions to old problems. These old solutions cannot deal with the new problems and make those new problems worse. Societies can be maladaptive systems – however it is also possible that changes in the base (amongst ordinary people) could change social trajectories.

That represents a bit of a change in social theory, which tended to think that the dominant classes were clever and adapted to new situations, and that societies could structure ‘nature’ indefinitely in ways they required.

So global warming is already changing our paradigms, and that changes the data we look for, and all of that data (that I’m aware of) is pretty much pointing to more extreme weather, and more difficult living conditions. It would be sensible to take these new paradigms seriously, and do what you can at a local level as well as a State or business level.

Technology and markets

November 26, 2022

It is often suggested that a ‘free market,’ or lots of investment (say within a developmentalist framework), will produce the technologies we need. To me, this seems like baseless propaganda which is harmful to our future.

Technology is not a whim

Firstly, Technology does not come along simply because we need it, would like it, or there is a market for it. There are physical limits to what can be achieved, at a certain level of technical development, at a feasible cost, and within a relatively short time frame. There are plenty of technologies which we need and which there would be a market for, that we don’t have: for example fusion energy or Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) which works at a level which makes a difference.

CCS is a perfect example of this, as we need it, it would lower the levels of emissions from fossil fuels, and enable drawdown and storage of CO2 from the atmosphere. There is a market for it, as it would make Fossil fuel companies happy as they would not have to face competition from renewables, it would make governments happy as they don’t have to do anything or fight powerful corporations, and it would allow everyone to keep on doing what they are doing now. The trouble with CCS is that despite 50 years or so of corporate and government investment, it basically does not work, at the levels we need it to work, and there is no evidence of any breakthroughs.

Despite recent minor breakthroughs fusion energy also seems to be a long way off being useful. It cannot be relied upon to save us in the time frame we need it to be available.

Markets are political

Secondly, any market, or form of development, involves politics and the likelihood of capture by existing power bases. Fossil Fuel companies will keep providing fossil fuels until it get uneconomic to provide them. To make them economic they will obstruct attempts to move out of fossil fuels: they will buy politicians, they will buy regulations, they will buy think-tanks to justify the use of fossil fuels and attack action on climate change. This is how markets work. Paradoxically, the ‘freer’ the market the more it seems to get constrained by those who are successful in the market, and the more society becomes plutocratic. So a capitalist free market (which is what people usually mean by ‘free markets’) is likely to be a destructive market, as NOT offloading costs from poisoning, pollution and eco-destruction involves a reduction of profit, and that is bad.

Finitude is important

Thirdly, the world is a relatively closed system for humans, with the exception of energy coming from the sun. We simply cannot keep extracting, over-extracting and polluting for ever without facing severe challenges, whether this extraction comes from business or from state controlled development. Sure we may get planetary colonies in the next 50 years, but that will not save most (or even many) people. and off-planetary environments will be even more hostile to humans than destroyed planetary ecologies. Space colonies will not save the world if we keep on destroying it in order to build them. Capitalist free markets, and development, seem to require growth, increasing extraction, increasing energy, and increasing profits to keep functioning. If this is the case, then capitalism and developmentalism will eventually destroy nearly everything, because of the effective closure of the system, even if they did produce useful technology that delayed the end point.

Conclusion

These factors, along with the idea that the market will produce whatever technology we need, seems to be why capitalist and developmentalist states have spent the last 30 years talking about climate change, and doing nothing.

The ideology has helped the capitalist elites to win, at the cost of you and your children’s future.

This means that if we want to survive,

  • We have to act locally where we have input; local renewable energy now. Preferably controlled by communities looking out for the communities, and providing local resilience for when climate change damage hits.
  • We have to campaign nationally and support climate action and ending eco-destruction, and phaseout of fossil fuels despite the problems that will generate
  • We have to realise that, as they are now, capitalism and developmentalism are not our steadfast friends. Those systems need changing.

Biofuels: Will they work?

September 5, 2022

[Long but unfinished]

What are Modern Biofuels

The term ‘biofuel’ is usually used to refer to liquid or solid fuels manufactured from recently living organic material called ‘biomass’ (which can include plants, cooking oils, animals, microorganisms and so on), and made in relatively short human time frames. Fossil fuels also come from living material, but are made in geological time frames.

Biomass can be specially grown on farms, taken from forests (natural or cultivated) or from so called ‘marginal land’, collected from the waste from production of another crop (rather than being used as mulch, fertiliser or animal feed). Biomass can be made from organic garbage or manure, which is then usually (but not always) turned into methane (‘natural gas’) and purified. Biomass can also be made through the growth of algae in tanks or sometimes ponds. Sometimes the burning of mixed rubbish, or plastic pollution is also classified as a biofuel.

History and use

Biofuels such as collected wood, plant matter and dung have been used by humans for heating and cooking for a long time. Some of the earlier internal combustion engines were supposedly either designed or modified to run on biofuels – although I do not have documented evidence for this. Nicolaus August Otto who is usually said to have invented the first automobile engine in 1876, potentially fueled it with alcohol as well as coal gas. The diesel engine, could be run on fuel made out of peanut oil, and Ford’s model T could also run on bio-oils.

However it is usually agreed that the cheapness of petroleum products in the 1910s-20s, ended these experiments and engines were no longer built to work with bio products.

After the recognition of climate change, biofuels have sometimes been mandated by Governments to strengthen energy security, reduce GHG (through regrowth of crops), and because they can provide ways to subsidise some agriculture or other industries.

The EU issued its first biofuel directive in 2003 which recommended “tax exemption, financial assistance for the processing industry and the establishment of a compulsory rate of biofuels for oil companies”. This was so successful that by 2017 it was claimed that:

Biomass for energy (bioenergy) continues to be the main source of renewable energy in the EU, with a share of almost 60%. The heating and cooling sector is the largest end-user, using about 75% of all bioenergy (see section 1).  

European Commission’s Knowledge Centre for Bioeconomy. 2019. Brief on biomass for energy in the European Union. and

The UK was lowering coal consumption but replacing the coal with wood pellets imported from the southeast United States, and providing over $1 billion in annual subsidies to help pay the costs of production and transport, mainly at the Drax power station (“the British government paid Drax the equivalent of €2.4m (£2.1m) a day in 2019”).

Drax appear to claim that wood pelleting is good for the environment and that they buy from sources which encourage tree growth:

“Over the last 25 years, the US South has not only increased its total wood supply – the surplus annual growth (compared to removals) each year has quadrupled”

Managed forests often absorb more carbon than forests that are left untouched .

(Drax 2022c)

We might wonder how biodiverse the new forestry is, and how much GHG are emitted transporting the chips across the Atlantic. We can also suggest that biofuel fit in well with European conditions of burning fuels and subsidy of agriculture. It could also increase wood chopping

According to Eurostat:

Almost a quarter (23 %) of the EU’s roundwood production in 2020 was used as fuelwood, while the remainder was industrial roundwood used for sawnwood and veneers, or for pulp and paper production…. . This represents an increase of 6 percentage points compared to 2000, when fuelwood accounted for 17 % of the total roundwood production. In some Member States, specifically the Netherlands, Cyprus and Hungary, fuelwood represented the majority of roundwood production (more than 50 %) in 2020. 

Eurostat 2021 Wood products – production and trade

Roundwood comprises all quantities of wood removed from the forest and other wooded land, or other tree felling site during a defined period of time

Eurostat: 2018 Glossary: Roundwood production

A Guardian article claims that “Between 2008 and 2018, subsidies for biomass, of which wood is the main source, among 27 European nations increased by 143%.” So the subsidies could provide an extra energy to focus on activities which are already happening.

The IEA claims:

Modern bioenergy is the largest source of renewable energy globally, accounting for 55% of renewable energy and over 6% of global energy supply. The Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario sees a rapid increase in the use of bioenergy to displace fossil fuels by 2030.

IEA Bioenergy 2021?

Clearly bioenergy is significant in the technologies which count as renewable. However, the reduction of emissions from burning biomass, might be largely theoretical. One source claims:

biomass burning power plants emit 150% the CO2 of coal, and 300 – 400% the CO2 of natural gas, per unit energy produced.

PFPI Carbon emissions from burning biomass for energy

The complexity and confusion over biofuel use, appears to be being used as a way of making EU renewable figures more respectable, and as such is enmeshed in politics rather than in ‘physical reality’. An Article in Environmental Policy and Governance stated:

We find that the commitment of EU decision-making bodies to internal guidelines on the use of expertise and the precautionary principle was questionable, despite the scientific uncertainty inherent in the biofuels debate. Imperatives located in the political space dominated scientific evidence and led to a process of ‘policy-based evidence gathering’ to justify the policy choice of a 10% renewable
energy/biofuels target.

Amelia Sharman & John Holmes 2010. Evidence-Based Policy or Policy-Based Evidence Gathering? Biofuels, the EU and the 10% Target. Environmental Policy and Governance 20: 309–321. and official site

So it can be suggested that biofuels can act as a fantasy evasion of challenges. Supposedly “responding to industry feedback”, the UK government increased its targets for biofuel, and justifies expanding airports by claiming that planes will use “sustainable” fuels, even though only a small number of planes can be provided with biofuels with current technologies. This means even more magic and fantasy, creeps into responses.

In 2005, the US Congress passed a “Renewable Fuel Standard,” which required transport fuel to include an increasing volume of biofuel. The law was expanded in 2007 and as a result, 2.8 million additional hectares of corn were grown between 2008 and 2016

“The Energy Policy Act of 2005 used a variety of economic incentives, including grants, income tax credits, subsidies and loans to promote biofuel research and development. It established a Renewable Fuel Standard mandating the blending of 7.5 billion gallons of  renewable fuels with gasoline annually by 2012. “The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) included similar economic incentives. EISA expanded the Renewable Fuel Standard to increase biofuel production to 36 billion gallons by 2022.” (EPA 2022).

In late 2021, The Biden Administration released plans (Whitehouse 2021) for increased biofuel production for aviation. With the aim of enabling “aviation emissions to drop 20% by 2030 when compared to business as usual” and “New and ongoing funding opportunities to support sustainable aviation fuel projects and fuel producers totaling up to $4.3 billion.” Later reports suggested that the Build Back Better Bill would include $1 billion in extra funding for normal biofuels (Neeley 2021).

In 2022, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a worldwide increase in fossil fuel prices. The Administration said (Whitehouse 2022) they were “committed to doing everything [they] can to address the pain Americans are feeling at the pump as a result of Putin’s Price Hike” and this involved spurring US biofuel production (“homegrown” to make it wholesome). This involved authorising the production of E15 in the summer months, when it is normally illegal, partly because it evaporates easily and adds GHG and particulates to the atmosphere including nitric, and nitrogen, oxides, although this is disputed (refs# AFP 2022). He also claimed to have negotiated “a historic release from petroleum reserves around the world, putting 240 million barrels of oil on the market in the next six months” (Whitehouse 2022). This is clearly not an attempt to reduce petrol consumption but the price of petrol which is likely to increase consumption over what it would have been otherwise.

The US Energy Information administration states that in 2021 “17.5 billion gallons of biofuels were produced in the United States and about 16.8 billion gallons were consumed. The United States was a net exporter of about 0.8 billion gallons of biofuels” (EIA 2022).

Biofuels are a major taxpayer supported industry, which appears to help delay change in at least some fields such as transport (automobile fuel), and are supported by that industry.

Scientific Encouragement

Biofuels have long been part of official plans for the energy transition, as a replacement for petrol or gas. The IPCC said in 2018:

Bioenergy has a significant greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential, provided that the resources are developed sustainably and that efficient bioenergy systems are used. Certain current systems and key future options including perennial cropping systems, use of biomass residues and wastes and advanced conversion systems are able to deliver 80 to 90% emission reductions compared to the fossil energy baseline….

From the expert review of available scientific literature, potential deployment levels of biomass for energy by 2050 could be in the range of 100 to 300 EJ…. The upper bound of the technical potential of biomass for energy may be as large as 500 EJ/yr by 2050….

Biomass provided about 10.2% (50.3 EJ/yr) of the annual global primary energy supply in 2008,

IPCC Chapter 2: Biofuels 215-16

Recognised Problems

Not enough biofuels

In 2011, the International Energy Agency forecast that biofuels could make up 27 percent of global transportation fuels by 2050. In 2021 the same organisation called for greater production of biofuels, but feared that (even i biofuels were less polluting and were low emissions) the necessary increase was not happening:

Transport biofuel production expanded 6% year-on-year in 2019, and 3% annual production growth is expected over the next five years. This falls short of the sustained 10% output growth per year needed until 2030 to align with the SDS.

IEA Transport Biofuels tracking report 1921 [Note IEA website addresses are often used more than once for the current report]

And:

While biofuel demand grew 5% per year on average between 2010 and 2019, the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario requires much higher average growth of 14% per year to 2030.

Despite a boost in biofuel production in Asia, Wood Mackenzie state

Our forecast shows that no Asian market can meet its biodiesel and ethanol blending targets this year. Indonesia for example, l requires 15 million hectares more palm oil plantations to reach its mandate target, and in China ethanol for biofuels started noticeably competing with food production (Wood Mackenzie (2021).

The IEA calls for more production incentive policies to make up this shortfall, but remarks:

These policies must ensure that biofuels are produced sustainably and avoid negative impacts on biodiversity, freshwater systems, food prices and food availability. Policies must also incentivise greenhouse gas reductions, not just biofuel demand

op cit.

Removal of emissions

To be useful, biofuels must replace other worse sources of emissions and pollution, rather than being used in addition to those sources of pollution. This is another case in which emissions density, the ratio of energy to emissions is an irrelevant measure, as biofuels could reduce emissions intensity, while still allowing emissions increase.

It is perhaps questionable whether sustainable production of biofuels is compatible with both reduction of fuel costs (ie they compete with fossil fuels as replacements), rapid growth of production and lowering of pollution, as pollution is often associated with making things cheap and plentiful.

Lockin

Biofuel, as an addition to petrol, may require us to keep petrol going for longer than is necessary, preserving fossil fuel company profits with only marginally lower emissions. Biofuels may also not be as efficient as fossil fuels and therefore increase overall consumption, and a Jevons effect might eventuate if the mixed fuel becomes cheaper to use, and more is consumed.

The Time Issue

It is generally much quicker to burn a plant or the fuel derived from a plant than it is to grow the volume of plants being burnt and turned into fuel. The more biofuel being burnt in a time period, the more biomass is needed to be being produced at the same time.

If it takes three days to regrow and process the amount of matter burnt in 1 day (which is excessively and unlikely quick replacement), then we need to grow and store enough biomass for days two and three and then grow it again. The greater the demand for biofuel the greater the demand for excess production. This will generally denature the soil, and make a problem for food production as it takes large quantities of land. Currently the world is expected to suffer food shortages because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It is probably not sensible to bet so much on crops for biomass given the instability of the current world through politics and through climate which may affect growth and fertility.

Systemic problems

a) Biofuels may take a lot of energy, land and manufactured fertiliser to produce, refine and transport to places of consumption, so their Energy Return on Energy Input (EREI) could be extremely low while the pollution through their production could be high.

b) Using organic waste, usually for the production of biogas, may remove natural fertilisers from the soil so that the ecological cycle of recovery is broken, and has to be repaired artificially. This may increase the energy ‘consumed or ‘wasted’ in making replacement chemical fertilisers. Again the IEA states:

biofuels are increasingly produced from feedstocks such as wastes and residues, which do not compete with food crops…. [while currently] only an estimated 7% of biofuels came from wastes and residues… Accounting for just 3% of transport fuel demand – biofuels are not on track to attain the Net Zero trajectory

###

Given that used cooking oil and waste animal fats provide the majority of non-food-crop feedstocks for biofuel production, and are limited “new technologies will need to be commercialised to expand non-food-crop biofuel production”. In other words imaginary, or possible, technologies will have to rescue us again.

c) Use of biofuels increases the so called ‘metabolic rift’ which comes with industrial agriculture. Materials and nutrients are taken from the soil and dispersed into the atmosphere, or become waste in another place – where they may decay into methane, another GHG.

d) Biofuels may lead to indirect land-use change. That is when food crops in one part of the world are directed to biofuels, and farmers elsewhere try to capitalise on the potential shortage of food crops by expanding into forests, or using agriculture that released soil stored GHG.

Through the interlinked systems, biofuels have the potential to make things worse.

Food

Farming, or extracting, these fuels, can: require fertile land and increase the price of food by taking land away from food production; dispossess small farmers, forest dwellers, and dependent labour from land (increasing food problems); bring about destruction of old growth forests (increasing CO2 emissions); decrease biodiversity lowering ecological resilience; and increase systemic vulnerability to plant disease through monocropping.

A suppressed or confidential World Bank report leaked to the Guardian in 2008 stated that “Biofuels have forced global food prices up by 75%”. Robert Bailey a policy adviser at Oxfam, remarked at the time:

Political leaders seem intent on suppressing and ignoring the strong evidence that biofuels are a major factor in recent food price rises… While politicians concentrate on keeping industry lobbies happy, people in poor countries cannot afford enough to eat.

Aditya Chakrabortty Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis. The Guardian 4 Jul 2008

Dr David King the UK Government’s Chief Scientific Advisor from 2000 to 2007 said:

It is clear that some biofuels have huge impacts on food prices… All we are doing by supporting these is subsidising higher food prices, while doing nothing to tackle climate change.”

Aditya Chakrabortty Secret report: biofuel caused food crisis. The Guardian 4 Jul 2008

In 2010 it was said that:

One-quarter of all the maize and other grain crops grown in the US now ends up as biofuel in cars rather than being used to feed people, according to new analysis which suggests that the biofuel revolution launched by former President George Bush in 2007 is impacting on world food supplies.”

John Vidal 2010 One quarter of US grain crops fed to cars – not people, new figures show. The Guardian 23 January

Lester Brown, the director of the Earth Policy Institute, was reported as saying:

The grain grown to produce fuel in the US [in 2009] was enough to feed 330 million people for one year at average world consumption levels… By subsidising the production of ethanol to the tune of some $6bn each year, US taxpayers are in effect subsidising rising food bills at home and around the world

John Vidal 2010 One quarter of US grain crops fed to cars – not people, new figures show. The Guardian 23 January

Other reports which suggest even more problems. Gro Intelligence, argues that the calories in biofuel production resulting from current and future policies could feed 1.9 billion people annually. The invasion of Ukraine, and the resultant shortage of foodstock sharpened the debate and it was alleged that close to 36% of US corn may be produced for biofuel and 40% of soy went into biodiesel. Another article suggests that a 50% reduction in grain for biofuels in the US and Europe would compensate for the loss of all of Ukraine’s grain exports

But of course there are different opinions. Rob Vierhout, the secretary-general of ePURE, the association of the European renewable ethanol and related industries attacks:

the allegation that millions of people were starving due to EU biofuel policies.  Not a single scientific paper over the past two years gave credence to that theory. The Commission’s own report earlier this year on the historical and future price impacts of EU biofuels policy suggested that the impacts had been negligible, an order of magnitude below what the NGO campaigners have claimed. Major contributions to the field this year include a World Bank paper concluding that oil is responsible for two thirds of price increases…

anti-biofuels campaigners have for the past six months focused on an allegation by IISD that biofuels cost EU taxpayers €10 billion annually…. We and our members have tried for a year to have meaningful and scientifically-relevant dialogue with IISD’s biofuel researchers, and we have pointed out dozens of factual and methodological errors in their work, as well as their constant failure to secure meaningful peer review…. They give the results that their clients order and then try to justify those results through manipulation of data and highly selective use of facts.

Rob Vierhout 2013. Take an honest look at ethanol! Euractiv 2 September

Vierhout adds:

Seventy thousand people owe their jobs to the EU renewable ethanol industry. European biofuels industry now contribute more than €20 billion annually to Europe’s GDP. They are a product made in and for Europe. Every litre of biofuel sold in Europe is a litre of reduced fossil fuel demand.

Rob Vierhout 2013. Take an honest look at ethanol! Euractiv 2 September

The number of jobs is irrelevant if the industry is harmful. Tom Buis, the chief executive of Growth Energy (Supporting American Ethanol) said:

Continued innovation in ethanol production and agricultural technology means that we don’t have to make a false choice between food and fuel. We can more than meet the demand for food and livestock feed while reducing our dependence on foreign oil through the production of homegrown renewable ethanol

John Vidal 2010 One quarter of US grain crops fed to cars – not people, new figures show. The Guardian 23 January

Water is also consumed at all stages of biofuel production: in agriculture in manufacture and in the fuel itself. It may be possible to conserve or recycle water, but it may not without adding more energy consumption to the process. Likewise if forests are felled to provide land for growing biofuels, then the local hydrological cycle may be disrupted, and water flow off the land, helping to produce floods, rather than being absorbed.

The problem here is that the systemic logic of the problem is fairly high. Biofuel crops require land and water to grow. There is limited land and water available. Consequently, this land and water either comes from existing agricultural (food producing) land, which lowers food production and thus puts the price of food up, occupies new land and produces lack of biodiversity, or produces food shortages (unless there is massive food over-production). If the land comes from areas which are cheap and supports local farmers, grazers in commoning, then those people may be dispossessed by mass cropping and forced into wage labour, or have to move elsewhere, and again the local price of food, and the amount of human suffering, is likely to increase along with declines in biodiversity and resilience. If the new land comes from forests, or previously unfarmed land then the loss of a carbon sink my eradicate any emissions lowering from using the fuels. If it comes from previously marginal land, then that may generate systemic problems, such as vulnerability to drought, soil loss and so on. The land was probably not being farmed for some reason or other. Yet there is a clear financial incentive for biofuels to continue.

For what it is worth Exxon remarks:

Many peer-reviewed papers in the scientific literature suggest that the direct life cycle GHG emissions are lower than fossil fuels but that indirect consequences of first generation biofuel development, including changes in forest and agricultural land use change, may result in higher total GHG emissions than petroleum-derived fuels

Exxon Newsroom 2018 Advanced biofuels and algae research: targeting the technical capability to produce 10,000 barrels per day by 2025. 17 September

EU response

The latest Climate negotiations from the EU, Fit for 55, seems to take note of some of these issues. The section on the transport sector does not seem to mention subsidised ethanol production for automobiles but plentiful charging stations and the deployment of a gaseous hydrogen refueling infrastructure. (The infographic refers to “liquified methane” which seems an odd choice for emissions reduction). It does refers to shipping and stimulating “demand for the most environmentally friendly sustainable fuels, particularly renewable fuels of non-biological origin” presumably hydrogen, although whether this is green hydrogen or not is unclear. The main section on biofuels is almost entirely about air transport, so we could perhaps expect that is where the subsidies will go. The discussion says they want to extend “the scope of eligible sustainable aviation fuels and synthetic aviation fuels. For biofuels, the scope is extended to other certified biofuels complying with the RED sustainability and emissions saving criteria, up to a maximum of 3%, and with the exception of biofuels from food and feed crops, which are excluded.”

It might also be useful to make sure transport emissions are low, and that energy efficiency is high so that transport needs less fuel.

Types of Biofuel

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA 2022 another web page which gets updated regularly), remarks that “The terminology for different types of biofuels used in government legislation and incentive programs and in industry branding and marketing efforts varies,” and that “definitions for these biofuels may also differ depending on the language in government legislation and programs that require or promote their use and among industry and other organizations.” This makes it hard to be definitive.

Ethanol

Biofuels are generally made from specially grown biomass, as implied above and burnt releasing GHG emissions which are hopefully absorbed over time by regrowth.  The currently most common biofuel involves ethanol Ethanol is a fermentation product made from plants such as corn, sugarcane, sugar beets etc. with a high sugar content. Fermentation to make ethanol also releases CO2, whether it is possible to lower this release is possibly likely, but still difficult to predict. It is added to petrol to dilute the amount of petrol being used, but as stated previously still produces emissions.

If fermentation is not used, as in ethanol production, then the plant material has to be broken down. One family of methods involves high temperatures, which of course takes energy. If this energy is provided by fossil fuels or further biofuels, then there will be added emissions.

  • Pyrolysis: biomass rapidly heated in an Oxygen free environment at 500-700 degrees Centigrade. The char then needs to be removed.
  • Gasification uses higher temperatures still >700 degrees. It produces ‘syngas’ a mixture of CO and hydrogen.
  • Hyrdothermal liquefaction for wet biomass like algae uses water at 200-350 degrees C and high pressure.

The resultant product needs purification and upgrading.

Ethanol is usually less efficient for petrol engines than petrol, it has less energy density, and in Australia the fuel is lower octane than usual petrol. Some research has suggested that cars use ethanol diluted fuel require more refuelling than those which do not, which may lead to extra fuel burning, and hence reduce the emissions reduction. As far as I can see more research is needed.

Cellulosic ethanol

This kind of ethanol is made from the cellulose and hemicelluloses which are found in plant cell walls, and the fuel tends to be made from agricultural waste, or non-edible remnants of crops. It is considerably harder to ferment the glucose in cellulose than to ferment the sugar rich seeds of corn etc. A story from 2016 states

no company is currently selling microorganisms capable of fermenting sugars contained in hemicellulose to corn ethanol refiners.  Therefore, such ‘cellulosic ethanol’ originates from the cellulose sugars in the fiber or [in] the starch which adheres to it.

Almuth Ernsting Cashing in on Cellulosic Ethanol: Subsidy Loophole Set to Rescue Corn Biofuel Profits

Cellulosic fuels are sometimes called second generation biofuels. This biomass should be able to come from more marginal land or from waste (EPA 2022). However, there is still a risk of soil depletion from the plant material not being returned to the soil, and it appears the energy consumption in making it is high.

Biodiesel [unclear]

Biodiesel tends to be made from vegetable oils, and animal fats, both new and used. Some diesel engines appear to be able to run on pure biodiesel, but in most cases the vegetable oils have too high a viscosity and the oils require heating before they can be used, so they are temperature vulnerable. The NSW department of primary industry claims: “the Australian diesel fuel standard allows up to 5% biodiesel in pump fuel. Higher concentrations of conventional biodiesel can cause issues with current infrastructure and engines.”

When I began writing this, the US Office of Energy Efficiency stated that “Currently one commercial scale facility (World Energy in Paramount, California) is producing renewable diesel from waste fats, oils, and greases.” Presumably more companies have appeared.

One of the possible techniques used is hydrocracking which uses hydrogen to break carbon to carbon bonds, but it is not clear to me what this technique is applied to, or what kind of energy and chemical processes are involved.

Biodiesel is often distinguished from Renewable diesel. The NSW government states:

Renewable diesel is produced from a wider variety of feedstocks than conventional biodiesel including non-food biomass and feedstock such as straw, cotton trash and urban waste streams. It can also use purpose-grown crops such as grass, woody biomass or algae. [Or sewage vegetable oils and animal fats] Renewable diesel is compatible with existing infrastructure and vehicles, but commercial scale production has yet to occur in Australia, though some pilot scale plants are in operation.

NSW Department of Primary Industries Biodiesel, renewable diesel and bioethanol 7 June 2022

Again we have the problem of the pollution through manufacturing and agricultural processes. It also appears that the NSW government at least is currently more interested in Hydrogen power than in biodiesel, but hydrogen production requires excess green energy to produce clear hydrogen, or working Carbon Capture and Storage to make from methane.

Wood

Wood has better have better energy density and higher EREI than most other plant materials but it is less energy dense and has higher moisture levels than fossil fuels and produces more particulate pollution. As said previously deforestation or monoculture trees tend not to be good for resilient ecologies.

Algae

Algae is essentially an experimental venture, even though it has been worked with since the oil crisis of the 1970s. Often called the third generation of biofuels. In theory algae should be wonderful. It is much quicker growing than other biomass (even when compared to burning time). It is rich in lipids and this, and growth rates, could possibly be boosted even further by genetic engineering. However, the record does not match the enthusiasm.

From 2005 to 2012, dozens of companies managed to extract hundreds of millions in cash from VCs in hopes of ultimately extracting fuel oil from algae [and failed]

 In 2015, EnAlgae, an EU-funded coalition of 19 research bodies, concluded (p2) that “it now looks highly unlikely that algae can contribute significantly to Europe’s need for sustainable energy,” although the research had helped algae be useful for “food, nutraceuticals, etc.” and help cut back fishing.

Similarly, in 2017, the International Energy Agency made the ambiguous comment that:

• The single biggest barrier to market deployment of algae remains the high cost of
cultivating and harvesting the algal biomass feedstocks, currently a factor of 10-20
too high for commodity fuel production…

• Algae-based production to produce bioenergy products like liquid or gaseous fuels
as primary products is not foreseen to be economically viable in the near to
intermediate term and the technical, cost and sustainability barriers are reviewed
• Macroalgae have significant potential as a biogas, chemicals and biofuels crop in
temperate oceanic climates in coastal areas. Their commercial exploitation also
remains limited by cost and scalability challenges

IEA 2017 State of Technology Review – Algae Bioenergy

By 2012, Shell had ended its algae biofuel research and development program, news had dried up of BP’s $10 million deal with bioscience firm Martek, and Chevron’s five-year partnership with the government-funded National Renewable Energy Laboratory had produced no significant breakthroughs. By early 2018, Chevron’s website had gone from promising that algae biofuel development was “still in the research stage” to openly admitting its work was unsuccessful.

Joseph Winters 2020 The Myth of Algae Biofuels. Harvard Political Review 26 January

Apparently Exxon are still interested in algal fuels and genetic modification as the solution.

Genetically engineered high reproduction rate algae is ecologically risky, as the chances are high, that some will escape, and if they can breed in the wild, which given the reproduction rates and lack of predators that often lead to algal blooms is likely, they could produce massive damage. Other problems include co-products, waste, nutrients, harvesting, drying and conversion technology.

In 2017 Exxon announced that:

Using advanced cell engineering technologies at Synthetic Genomics, the ExxonMobil-Synthetic Genomics research team modified an algae strain to enhance the algae’s oil content from 20 percent to more than 40 percent.

Exxon Newsroom 2017 ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics report breakthrough in algae biofuel research 19 June

Later they moved to outdoor testing of.

naturally occurring algae in several contained ponds in California…

ExxonMobil anticipates that 10,000 barrels of algae biofuel per day could be produced by 2025 based on research conducted to date and emerging technical capability.

Exxon Newsroom 2018 ExxonMobil and Synthetic Genomics algae biofuels program targets 10,000 barrels per day by 2025 6 March

Finally in late 2018 they declared:

algal biofuels will have about 50 percent lower life cycle greenhouse gas emissions than petroleum-derived fuel…

producing algae does not compete with sources of food, rendering the food-vs.-fuel quandary a moot point

Because algae can be produced in brackish water, including seawater, its production will not strain freshwater resources the way ethanol does.

Algae consume CO2, and on a life-cycle basis have a much lower emissions profile than corn ethanol given the energy used to make fertilizer, distill the ethanol, and to farm and transport the latter.

Algae can yield more biofuel per acre than plant-based biofuels

Exxon Newsroom 2018 Advanced biofuels and algae research: targeting the technical capability to produce 10,000 barrels per day by 2025. 17 September

There seems to be no record of progress since then. The US EPA simply remarks in 2022: “algae biofuels are not yet produced commercially”. However the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) states it is “working to build the algae bioeconomy of the future, where fossil fuels could be replaced with a renewable, abundant, and flexible source of energy.” It is offering awards to students for advances in algal tech.

Biogas

The decay of much biomass produces methane, or ‘natural gas’. The idea is that it is possible to capture or generate methane from waste, and rather than release it to the atmosphere, burn it to produce energy and presumably some GHG. The point here is not that no GHG is released, but it is used as it is released.

China has more than 100,000 biogas plants, and a large number of household biogas units, followed by Germany with over 10,000 plants.

Methanol is another form of biogas made from biomass at extremely high temperatures and in the presence of a catalyst

Plastics

It is also possible that plastics could be converted to biofuels  – exchanging one form of pollution for another less noticeable form. Australian energy startup Licella was funded by Renewable Chemical Technologies Ltd (RCTL) and Armstrong Energy (£5m) to convert plastics to oil suitable to blend in with hydrocarbon fuels. It can work with broken and mixed plastics, and paper. However, the production of plastics locks away carbon, while conversion and burning releases it, so you get rid of the plastic from landfill or oceans but put it in the air, – along with any other pollutants. This is the case even if the production process is lower in emissions than usual. Given plastics are usually made from fossil fuels, fuel made from plastic should probably be classified as processed fossil fuels.

Waste

Waste or rubbish is one of the more confusing categories. It can include biogas but also high temperature burning of rubbish such as plastics and other materials which might be otherwise put into landfill. It may add to transport emissions if trucks carry the waste from the landfill area to the incinerator. The heat is usually used to produce steam and drive turbines to produce electricity. (A commercial description can be found here). It is dubious that burning mixed materials will have low emissions, or low particulate pollution, and the ash left behind is likely contaminated with heavy metals, salts, and persistent organic pollutants. Modern incinerators also have air pollution control equipment, which adds to the energy and cost of operation. The US EPA claims:

A typical waste to energy plant generates about 550 kilowatt hours (kWh) of energy per ton of waste. At an average price of four cents per kWh, revenues per ton of solid waste are often 20 to 30 dollars… [another] stream of revenue for the facilities comes from the sale of both ferrous (iron) and non-ferrous scrap metal collected from the post-combusted ash stream.

The United States combusted over 34 million tons of Municipal Solid Waste [MSW] with energy recovery in 2017…

 The ash that remains from the MSW combustion process is sent to landfills. 

EPA Energy Recovery from the Combustion of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)

A medical survey of evidence concluded that:

A range of adverse health effects were identified, including significant associations with some neoplasia, congenital anomalies, infant deaths and miscarriage, but not for other diseases. Ingestion was the dominant exposure pathway for the public.

More recent incinerators have fewer reported ill effects, perhaps because of inadequate time for adverse effects to emerge. A precautionary approach is required.

Peter W Tait et al. 2020. The health impacts of waste incineration: a systematic review. Aust N Z J Public Health 44(1):40-48.

Another article on the same topic claimed:

We found a dearth of health studies related to the impacts of exposure to WtE emissions. The limited evidence suggests that well-designed and operated WtE facilities using sorted feedstock (RDF) are critical to reduce potential adverse health (cancer and non-cancer) impacts, due to lower hazardous combustion-related emissions, compared to landfill or unsorted incineration. Poorly fed WtE facilities may emit concentrated toxins with serious potential health risks, such as dioxins/furans and heavy metals; these toxins may remain problematic in bottom ash as a combustion by-product. 

Tom Cole-Hunter 2020 The health impacts of waste-to-energy emissions: a systematic review of the literature. Environmental Research Letters,15: 123006

Not unreasonably they call for further research before expanding the industry.

In the US, The Department of Energy announced:

$46 million for 22 projects that will create biofuel energy to help decarbonize the transportation and power generation sectors.

Turning waste and carbon pollution into clean energy at scale would be a double win—cleaning up waste streams that disproportionately burden low-income communities and turning it into essential energy,” said U.S. Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm.

Unusually, they try to sell the waste burning, as removing waste streams from low-income communities, and lowering pollution, both of which seem dubious.

In Australia, the government has also seen incineration ‘renewable energy’ and as creating revenue streams for industry, and then allowing industry to apply for grant programs, through people such as the renewable energy agency Arena and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation. Promotion of rubbish for energy also came about shortly after China refused to take more Australian rubbish exports, and this allows recycling centres to sell on otherwise unwanted recycling materials.

Burning rubbish would seem to be a way of not having to lower rubbish-pollution, increase recycling, or find new ways of recycling. In other words it allows freeloading polluters to continue to freeload and rubbish-collectors to make extra profits. It may even encourage more plastic manufacture. to provide feedstock.

Sustainable Aviation fuel

Aviation fuel is a major cause of GHG. By 2019, the total annual world-wide passenger count was 4.56 billion people.

passenger air travel was producing the highest and fastest growth of individual emissions before the pandemic, despite a significant improvement in efficiency of aircraft and flight operations over the last 60 years…

if global commercial aviation had been a country in the 2019 national GHG emissions standings, the industry would rank number six in the world between Japan and Germany.

Jeff Overton 2022 Issue Brief | The Growth in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Commercial Aviation. Environmental and Energy Study Institute 9 June


In 2017 the aviation industry promised carbon neutral growth by 2020.  The “green jet fuel” plan, promised and increase use of biofuels to 5m tonnes a year by 2025, and 285m tonnes by 2050, which is about half the overall demand, assuming it remains stable, and stops growing. This is also about three times the amount of biofuels currently produced, and that suggests that the blowback would be considerable. Nearly 100 environmental groups protested against the proposal. Klaus Schenk of Rainforest Rescue said: “The vast use of palm oil for aviation biofuels would destroy the world’s rainforests” and Biofuel watch estimate it would take an amount of land more than three times the size of the UK.

British Airways abandoned a £340m scheme to make jet fuel from rubbish in January 2016, while Qantas managed a 15 hour flight from the US to Australia using a fuel with a 10% blend of a mustard seed fallow crop. The flight reportedly reduced the normal emissions of the flight by 7% which suggests a long way to go. At the time it was reported that Qantas aimed to set up an Australian biorefinery in the near future in partnership with Canadian company Agrisoma Biosciences. I do not know if this has happened, but they claimed that in Jan 2022 they became the first Australian airline to purchase Sustainable Aviation fuel out of Heathrow in London. It “will represent up to 15 per cent of our annual fuel purchased out of London…. and reduce carbon emissions by around 10 per cent on this route.” The fuel was said to be produced with certified bio feedstock from used cooking oil and/or other waste products. This is then blended with normal jet fuel. Qantas Group Chief Sustainability Officer Andrew Parker said “Aviation biofuels typically deliver around an 80 per cent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions on a lifecycle basis”. This seems unlikely while it is blended with jet fuel, and does not really compare with the 7 to 10 percent reduction they were previously claiming.

Reuters states that “Only around 33 million gallons of SAF were produced last year globally, or 0.5% of the jet fuel pool”. Stuff from the Biden bill

 

Climate change in 1965

September 4, 2022

The 1965 Report Restoring the quality of our environment presented to US President Johnson gives some ideas of knowledge and approach to climate change. They took it as likely and serious. Here are some paragraphs with a few comments in [ ]s:

President Johnson wrote:

the technology that has permitted our affluence spews out vast quantities of wastes and spent products that pollute our air, poison our waters, and even impair our ability to feed ourselves…. Pollution now is one of the most pervasive problems of our society.

Johnson points out that pollution is a general and serious problem resulting from the way societies have gained affluence. The Report, itself, opens with some history of the knowledge of CO2 Pollution, climate change, and its consequences:

The possibility of climatic change resulting from changes in the quantity of atmospheric carbon dioxide was proposed independently by the American geologist, T. C. Chamberlain (1899) and the Swedish chemist, S. Arrhenius (1903), at the beginning of this century.

They point to some existing evidence of climate change.

One might suppose that the increase in atmospheric CO2 over the past 100 years should have already brought about significant climatic changes, and indeed some scientists have suggested this is so. The English meteorologist, G. S. Callendar (1938, 1940, 1949), writing in the late 1930’s and the 1940’s on the basis of the crude data then available, believed that the increase in atmospheric CO2 from 1850 to 1940 was at least 10%. He thought this increase could account quantitatively for the observed warming of northern Europe and northern North America that began in the 1880’s….

As Mitchel (1961, 1963) has shown, atmospheric warming between 1885 and 1940 was a world-wide phenomenon.

The authors point to the difficulties of prediction of climate….

Even today, we cannot make a useful prediction concerning the magnitude or nature of the possible climatic effects.

Although clearly they recognise that climate change is a problem. They also recognise that sea level rise is a likely result.

It has sometimes been suggested that atmospheric warming due to an increase in the CO2 content of the atmosphere may result in a catastrophically rapid melting of the Antarctic ice cap, with an accompanying rise in sea level…. But such melting must occur relatively slowly on a human scale…. The melting of the Antarctic ice cap would raise sea level by 400 feet. If 1,000 years were required to melt the ice cap, the sea level would rise about 4 feet every 10 years [They add that this is not yet happening]

They think CO2 increase is induced by the actions of a particular social formation, and is therefore humanly induced.

Through his worldwide industrial civilization, Man is unwittingly conducting a vast geophysical experiment. Within a few generations he is burning the fossil fuels that slowly accumulated in the earth over the past 500 million years. The CO2 produced by this combustion is being injected into the atmosphere; about half of it remains there.

We can conclude with fair assurance that at the present time, fossil fuels are the only source of CO2 being added to the ocean-atmosphere-biosphere system.

By the year 2000 the increase in atmospheric CO2 will be close to 25%. [They were wrong, the increase was much bigger than they thought] This may be sufficient to produce measurable and perhaps marked changes in climate, and will almost certainly cause significant changes in the temperature and other properties of the stratosphere. At present it is impossible to predict these effects quantitatively…

Again, they suggest that humanly induced climate change could be bad for humanity

The climatic changes that may be produced by the increased CO2 content could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings. The possibilities of deliberately bringing about countervailing climatic changes therefore need to be thoroughly explored.

The solution they propose, appears to involve an early suggestion of geoengineering, rather than a cutback in fossil fuel consumption.

A change in the radiation balance in the opposite direction to that which might result from the increase of atmospheric CO2 could be produced by raising the albedo, or reflectivity, of the earth.

So, the Report could warn that global heating and climate change was likely to occur because of human burning of fossil fuels, but made no suggestion of cutting back consumption of those fossil fuels.

Sounds pretty contemporary.

State of the World?

July 19, 2022

We seem to be facing a climate crisis already. We don’t have to wait for the future. This description is obviously not complete, and only deals with 2022.

Australia

There are severe floods in Eastern Australia again. The Climate Council calls them “one of the most extreme disasters in Australian history… causing tragic loss of life and submerging tens of thousands of homes and businesses.” They point to speed, severity and “rain bombs”.  Yet this flooding occurred on the East Coast at the the same as Perth on the West Coast “smashed its previous record number of summer days at or over 40 C.” The Council recommends “Australia triple its efforts and aim to reduce its national emissions by 75% by 2030, and reach net zero by 2035.” The government is currently refusing to budge on its targets of 43% cuts by 2030 and net zero by 2050. This does not seem enough.

While the handling of the last floods may have been better than the previous floods, the country does not seem to be preparing for more events. Greg Mullins, former commissioner of Fire & Rescue NSW, Climate Council member, and founder of the Emergency Leaders for Climate Action states:

Australia lost a critical decade of preparation under a former federal government that repeatedly failed to heed the advice of scientists and experts… We are now in a position where we’re ill-equipped to get ahead of disasters and nowhere near where we should be to address the climate crisis.

Greg Mullins Australia is woefully unprepared for this climate reality of consecutive disasters. The Guardian 5 July 2022

Recently the NSW government scrapped orders to consider flood and fire risks before land zoning and building. The previous Federal Government delayed the release of a report into the condition of Australia’s environment until after the election. This has just been released. It appears to show a large number of newly threatened animals, with the country having one of the highest rates of species decline in the developed world, large scale forest clearance (not sure if this includes through the bushfires), a crisis in the Murray-Darling river system which is vital for agriculture and inland life, repeated bleachings of the Great Barrier Reef, increased ocean acidity, sea level rise affecting low-lying areas, such as the Kakadu wetlands, loss of soil carbon, and so on. The new Minister for the Environment stated that “The Australian Land Conservation Alliance estimates that we need to spend over $1 billion a year to restore and prevent further landscape degradation”.

The president of the Australian Academy of Science, Prof Chennupati Jagadish, said the report was sobering reading and the outlook for the environment was grim, with critical thresholds in many natural systems likely to be exceeded as global heating continued

Adam Morton and Graham Readfearn State of the environment: shocking report shows how Australia’s land and wildlife are being gradually destroyed The Guardian Tue 19 Jul 2022 03.30 AEST

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology states:

Australia has warmed on average by 1.44 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950 and every decade since then being warmer than the ones before. Australia’s warmest year on record was 2019, and the seven years from 2013 to 2019 all rank in the nine warmest years.

State of the Climate 2020

It appears that Australia is already close to exceeding the 1.5C increase, that was an acceptable target.

Staying under 1.5C, or even setting a good example, is unlikely, as Australian emissions have recently increased in most areas of the economy, with the exception of electricity.

  • Increased transport emissions (up 4.0%; 3.5 Mt CO₂-e) reflecting a continuing recovery from the impacts of COVID restrictions on movement
  • Increased emissions from stationary energy (excluding electricity) (up 3.3%; 3.3 Mt CO₂-e) driven primarily by an increase in fuel combustion in the manufacturing sector
  • Increased emissions from agriculture (up 4.2%; 3.1 Mt CO₂-e) due to the continuing recovery from drought
  • Increased fugitive emissions (up 1.8%; 0.9 Mt CO₂-e), resulting from increased venting and flaring in oil and gas.

The latest list on the Department of Industry Science and Resources (p.8) Lists 69 new coal projects and 45 new gas and oil projects in various stages of approval. This could change with the new government, but it seems unlikely. Rupert Murdoch’s The Australian reports the new Prime Minister as saying new coal and gas projects could ­proceed if they stacked up financially and passed environmental approvals and “Policies that would just ­result in a replacement of Australian resources with resources that are less clean from other countries would lead to an ­increase in global emissions, not a decrease” [Albanese: coal ban won’t cut emissions, The Australian, 21 July 2022: 4.]. This was a conventional line repeated by the Minster for Environment: “Other countries that are burning Australian coal are responsible for reducing the pollution when they’re burning that Australian coal. That is how the global accounting for carbon pollution reduction works.” It also appears that Australian based Fossil Fuel companies have also been announcing massive profit increases. For example, Woodside announced a 44% increase in revenue. Santos an 85% increase despite only increasing production by 9%. Whitehaven Coal announced that it received a “record” average price for coal over the second quarter in 2022, over 5 times what it charged the previous year.

The weather conditions elsewhere are also ‘difficult’.

UK

There is the current heat wave in the UK, with record temperatures, melting runways, warnings for people not to commute, trains cancelled and so on. The UK Met Office issued its first-ever Level 4 “extreme heat” warning indicating that even the fit and healthy could fall ill or die, not just the high-risk and vulnerable groups. The hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK of 40.2C at Heathrow. This broke the previous record of 38.7C set in 2019.

Dr Eunice Lo, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol Cabot Institute for the Environment, said: “The climate has warmed since 1976 significantly. We have a record going back to 1884 and the top 10 hottest years have all occurred since 2002…. This hasn’t happened before; it is unprecedented…. By definition these are new extremes.”

Helena Horton UK is no longer a cold country and must adapt to heat, say climate scientists. The Guardian 18 July 2022

The UK Met said:

The chances of seeing 40°C days in the UK could be as much as 10 times more likely in the current climate than under a natural climate unaffected by human influence.

UK prepares for historic hot spell. Met Office News. 15 Jul 2022.

To add to the Strangeness. The normal source of the River Themes has dried up, and the river now starts 5 miles downstream from that point. There is a drought.

Apparently some UK climate scientists said that they had not expected these kinds of temperatures in the UK this early. Yet the simultaneous Conservative Party leadership ballot, has had candidates accused of ignoring climate change. The two finalists Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have both expressed caution. Sunak said “If we go too hard and too fast” toward net zero “then we will lose people,” and Truss said she wanted to “find better ways to deliver net zero” that won’t “harm people and businesses” [1]. Truss has generally voted against climate measures.

EU

Fires are burning in France, Spain, Portugal, Croatia and Hungary. At least 12 thousand of people have been evacuated from the Gironde in south-western France. [Later reports suggest 37,000] According to the French weather channel La Chaîne Météo 108 absolute temperature records were set. Some Nuclear Reactors where turned down as the cooling water was too hot. In Spain temperatures reached 45C and 3,000 people were evacuated from the town of Mijas due to fires. The arrival of 30C temperatures in Spain has “advanced between 20 and 40 days on average in 71 years, according to a climatological study by” the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) “the climate of Spain no longer It is as we knew it: it has become more extreme” the four seasons in Spain will end up being two: summer and almost summer (Via Google Translate). Fires have also broken out near Athens [more] fanned by gales and heat. A hospital and the National Observatory of Athens were evacuated, and homes were burnt down.

The French Prime Minister warned that France is facing its “most severe drought” on record. “The exceptional drought we are currently experiencing is depriving many municipalities of water and is a tragedy for our farmers, our ecosystems and biodiversity.” Apparently more than 100 municipalities were not able to provide drinking water to the tap and had to be supplied by truck. Portugal having recorded its highest July temperature is nearly completely in severe or extreme drought.  In Italy, the Po is 2 metres lower than normal, and increased salinity is threatening rice and shellfish production. Further reports suggest that the Rhine river is 7 cm off being unsuitable for river traffic and this will affect trade all through the continent, and add to the stress coming from the heat, the energy shortage, and the war in Ukraine.

Andrea Toreti of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre [sais] “There were no other events in the past 500 [years] similar to the drought of 2018. But this year, I think, is worse.”

Henley, J. Europe’s rivers run dry as scientists warn drought could be worst in 500 years. The Guardian, 14 August 2022

Only 3% of homes in Germany and the UK have air-conditioning,  5% of residential homes in France, 7% in Italy. The heat waves suggest that there will also be a wave of power consumption as people start to install cooling in their homes. Radhika Khosla, associate professor at the Smith School at the University of Oxford, made the obvious point about needing air conditioning in a heated world:

“The global community must commit to sustainable cooling, or risk locking the world into a deadly feedback loop, where demand for cooling energy drives further greenhouse gas emissions and results in even more global warming.”

Fiona HarveyAshifa KassamNina Lakhani, and Amrit Dhillon Burning planet: why are the world’s heatwaves getting more intense? The Guardian 19 June 2022

There is also likely to be struggles over available energy in Europe over the winter. Frans Timmermans the vice-president of the European Commission has warned the EU could descend into serious strife if there wasn’t enough energy for heating in winter, and “If we were just to say no more coal right now, we wouldn’t be very convincing in some of our member states and we would contribute to tensions within our society getting even higher.” So “can we make further commitments on reducing our emissions given the situation?” The answer he was implying was ‘no’.

The heat and fires are likely to affect farming and food availability. Mustard for example is short in France because of excessive heat in Canada where much of their mustard seed is grown. An estimated 15 to 35% of the wheat crop in states close to Delhi such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh – what is known as India’s “wheat bowl” – has been damaged and the government banned wheat exports.

USA

In the US

Nearly 90 large fires and complexes have burned  3,100,941 acres in 12 states. Six new large fires were reported, two in Alaska and one in Alabama, Idaho, Montana and Oklahoma. More than 6,600 wildland firefighters and support personnel are assigned to incidents across the country

National Interagency Fire Center National Fire News 18 July 2022 [this link is likely to be lost due to updates]

The amount of the USA being burnt seems to be increasing… By early July the Alaskan fires had burnt over 2 million acres, more than twice the size of a typical Alaska fire season.

the weather factors – the warm spring, low snowpack and unusual thunderstorm activity – combined with multidecade warming that has allowed vegetation to grow in Southwest Alaska, together fuel an active fire season…. [The fires] burn hotter and burn deeper into the ground, so rather than just scorching the trees and burning the undergrowth, they’re consuming everything, and you’re left with this moonscape of ash

Rick Thoman Alaska on fire: Thousands of lightning strikes and a warming climate put Alaska on pace for another historic fire season. The Conversation 5 July 2022

In California there are large fires almost every year nowadays. The ‘Oak fire’ in Mariposa county has led to 6000 people being evacuated.

On Saturday, the Oak fire sent up a pyrocumulus cloud so large it could be seen from space…. Kim Zagaris, an adviser for the Western Fire Chiefs association, told the LA Times: “When you get a pyrocumulus column, it can pick up a pretty good-sized branch and actually draw it aloft into the column and in some cases drop it a mile or two miles down the head of the fire, which starts additional spot fires.”….. Felix Castro, a meteorologist with the US National Weather Service, said the region had experienced 13 consecutive days of triple-digit heat with relative humidity of 8% or 9%. Vegetation had reached near-record dryness, he said, in what scientists estimate to be the most arid 22-year period in at least 1,200 years.

Gabrielle Canon Edward Helmore, California Oak fire remains uncontained as Al Gore warns ‘civilization at stake’. The Guardian 25 July 2022
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/acres-burned-usa

There were unexpected heat waves in Texas and Arizona with daily temperature records, and record overnight temperatures. Some cities opened cooling centres for people without air conditioning. Texas warned people to cut electricity use or face blackouts. “Extreme heat is America’s leading weather-related killer, and Phoenix in Maricopa county [Arizona] is the country’s hottest and deadliest city.”

Water shortage’s are common in Western USA, due to a long term drought. In Mid August, the US Department of the Interior declared the first-ever tier 2 water shortage for the Colorado River, so Arizona, Nevada and Mexico have to reduce their water usage even more from 1 January next year. Not only is the ecology of the river basin threatened, but humans will face disrupted water supplies and diminished hydro electric capacity. This has already increased tensions between the different states.

The Democrats have not been particularly successful getting climate measures passed, and Biden has proposed new offshore oil drilling off Alaska and in the Mexican Gulf.

‘Sub-continent’: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh

Earlier in the year there were heat waves in Pakistan and India showing the highest temperatures on record. According to the Meteorological Department Delhi has recorded temperatures of 42C (and above) on 25 days since summer began. Temperatures of about 50C were seen in May, while India had 71% less rain than normal in March and there was 62% less rainfall in Pakistan. People from the World Meteorological Association wrote:

The 2022 heatwave is estimated to have led to at least 90 deaths across India and Pakistan, and to have triggered an extreme Glacial Lake Outburst Flood in northern Pakistan and forest fires in India. The heat reduced India’s wheat crop yields, causing the government to reverse an earlier plan to supplement the global wheat supply that has been impacted by the war in Ukraine. In India, a shortage of coal led to power outages that limited access to cooling, compounding health impacts and forcing millions of people to use coping mechanisms such as limiting activity to the early morning and evening… Because of climate change, the probability of an event such as that in 2022 has increased by a factor of about 30.

Zachariah et al Climate Change made devastating early heat in India and Pakistan 30 times more likely

Bangladesh has been having the worst floods in Sylhet in a century. Thousands of people are displaced, towns have been washed away. According to the UN, an estimated 7.2 million people across seven districts have been affected. Hospitals are inaccessible due to flooding. Over half of the regions medical clinics are underwater. “An estimated 60,000 women are pregnant in the affected region, with more than 6,500 births expected to take place in July”, and the lack of medical resources also means that waterborne diseases are likely to sweep through the population.

India has apparently used the heat wave and failing power sources to reduce environmental compliance rules for coal mines, such as holding public consultations before mines operate at greater capacity. The government plans to increase coal production to 1.2 billion tonnes, an increase of over 400m tonnes, over the next two years

Latin America

Conditions where not good in Latin America early this year

In mid-January, the southern tip of South America suffered its worst heat wave in years. In Argentina, temperatures in more than 50 cities rose above 40°C, more than 10°C warmer than the typical average temperature in cities such as Buenos Aires. The scorching heat sparked wildfires, worsened a drought, hurt agriculture, and temporarily collapsed Buenos Aires’s electrical power supply. 

Rodrigo Perez Ortega Extreme temperatures in major Latin American cities could be linked to nearly 1 million deaths. Science 28 June 2022

China

In China, at least 86 Chinese cities in eastern and southern parts of the country had issued heat alerts. in the city of Nanjing, officials opened air-raid shelters for locals to escape the heat. Reports from earlier in the year suggest that Premier Li Keqiang announced a goal of 300 million tons of new coal production in 2022, in addition to the 220 million tons added last year.

Africa

Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are facing lack of rainfall and a drought emergency [1], [2]

The Poles

Temperatures at Vostok station relatively near the South Pole were 15C hotter than the previous all-time record. At the North Pole temperatures were 3C higher than average. Science Daily reported research which showed that “the Arctic is heating up more than four times faster than the rate of global warming.” (See also here) The ice melts reveal more ‘dark sea’ which will absorb more heat and, in a positive feedback loop, lead to higher temperatures and more ice melts

State of the global climate

The World Meteorological Association State of the Global Climate 2021 report’s ley points include:

  • The global mean temperature in 2021 was around 1.11 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average…. The most recent seven years, 2015 to 2021, were the seven warmest years on record.
  • Global mean sea level reached a new record high in 2021, rising an average of 4.5 mm per year over the period 2013–2021.
  • Greenland experienced an exceptional mid-August melt event and the first-ever recorded rainfall at Summit Station, the highest point on the Greenland ice sheet at an altitude of 3,216 m.
  • Exceptional heatwaves broke records across western North America and the Mediterranean. Death Valley, California reached 54.4 °C on 9 July, equalling a similar 2020 value as the highest recorded in the world since at least the 1930s, and Syracuse in Sicily reached 48.8 °C.
  • Hurricane Ida was the most significant of the North Atlantic season, making landfall in Louisiana on 29 August, equalling the strongest landfall on record for the state, with economic losses in the United States estimated at US$ 75 billion.
  • Deadly and costly flooding induced economic losses of US$ 17.7 billion in Henan province of China, and Western Europe experienced some of its most severe flooding on record in mid-July. This event was associated with economic losses in Germany exceeding US$ 20 billion.
  • Drought affected many parts of the world, including areas in Canada, United States, Islamic Republic of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey and Turkmenistan. In Canada, severe drought led to forecast wheat and canola crop production levels being 35%–40% below 2020 levels, while in the United States, the level of Lake Mead on the Colorado River fell in July to 47 m below full supply level, the lowest level on record.
  • Hydro-meteorological hazards continued to contribute to internal displacement. The countries with the highest numbers of displacements recorded as of October 2021 were China (more than 1.4 million), Viet Nam (more than 664 000) and the Philippines (more than 600 000).

These weather patterns seem entirely consistent with the idea that climate change had arrived and that weather is getting more chaotic and disruptive.

Cost of Damage?

It is clearly not possible, as yet, to estimate the damage for 2022, but Munich RE, (a provider of reinsurance, primary insurance and insurance-related risk solutions) has estimated the costs for the ‘milder’ year of 2021:

  • In 2021, natural disasters caused overall losses of US$ 280bn, of which roughly US$ 120bn were insured
  • Alongside 2005 and 2011, the year 2021 proved to be the second-costliest ever for the insurance sector (record year 2017: US$ 146bn, inflation-adjusted) – overall losses from natural disasters were the fourth-highest to date (record year 2011: US$ 355bn)
  • Hurricane Ida was the year’s costliest natural disaster, with overall losses of US$ 65bn (insured losses of US$ 36bn)
  • In Europe, flash floods after extreme rainfall caused losses of US$ 54bn (€46bn) – the costliest natural disaster on record in Germany 
  • Many of the weather catastrophes fit in with the expected consequences of climate change, making greater loss preparedness and climate protection a matter of urgency….
  • The USA accounted for a very high share of natural disaster losses in 2021 (roughly US$ 145bn), of which some US$ 85bn were insured

Five Final Opinions

Carbon Brief, is an activist organisation, so you may want to ignore it….

We found more than 400 new mine proposals that could produce 2,277m tonnes per annum (Mtpa), of which 614Mtpa are already being developed. The plans are heavily concentrated in a few coal-rich regions across China, Australia, India and Russia.

If they all went ahead, the new mines could supply as much as 30% of existing global coal production – or the combined output of India, Australia, Indonesia and the US.

Yet last month, the International Energy Agency said no new coal mines – nor extensions of existing mines – were “required” in its pathway to 1.5C. A UNEP report last year said coal output should fall 11% each year to 2030, under the same target.

Plans to massively boost coal production are, therefore, incompatible with the 1.5C limit. Alternatively, if global climate goals are to be met, the estimated $91bn of investment in the proposed mines could be left stranded.

Guest post: Hundreds of planned coal mines ‘incompatible with 1.5C target’ Carbon Tracker 10 June 2021

The UN Secretary General to the G20:

The climate crisis is our number one emergency.

The battle to keep the 1.5-degree goal alive will be won or lost by 2030….

But current national climate pledges would result in an increase in emissions of 14 percent by 2030.

This is collective suicide.

We need a renewable energy revolution. Ending the global addiction to fossil fuels is priority number one.

No new coal plants.

No expansion in oil and gas exploration….

Emerging economies must have access to the resources and technology they need.   

Wealthier countries must finally make good on the $100 billion climate finance commitment to developing countries, starting this year. 

We also need a radical boost for adaptation and early warning systems.

Secretary-General’s video message to the G20 Foreign Ministers: “Strengthening Multilateralism” 8 July

Later he said:

Eight months ago we left COP26 with 1.5 on life support.

Since then, its pulse has weakened further.

Greenhouse gas concentrations, sea level rise and ocean heat have broken new records.

Half of humanity is in the danger zone from floods, droughts, extreme storms and wildfires.

No nation is immune.

Yet we continue to feed our fossil fuel addiction.

What troubles me most is that, in facing this global crisis, we are failing to work together as a multilateral community.

Nations continue to play the blame game instead of taking responsibility for our collective future.

Secretary-General’s video message to the Petersberg Dialogue 18 July 2022

The Chair of the IPCC, said at the launch of the Working Group II report.

The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: climate change is a grave and mounting threat to human wellbeing and the health of the planet. Any further delay in concerted global action will miss a brief and rapidly closing window to secure a liveable future.

We are not on track to achieve a climate-resilient sustainable world.

This report is a dire warning about the consequences of inaction. 

Opening remarks by the IPCC Chair at the IPCC-SBSTA Special Event on the Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report Monday, 6 June 2022

Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist for the Nature Conservancy in the US and professor at Texas Tech University says:

We cannot adapt our way out of the climate crisis…. If we continue with business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions, there is no adaptation that is possible. You just can’t…. Our infrastructure, worth trillions of dollars, built over decades, was built for a planet that no longer exists… Human civilisation is based on the assumption of a stable climate…. But we are moving far beyond the stable range. We will not have anything left that we value, if we do not address the climate crisis

Fiona Harvey We cannot adapt our way out of climate crisis, warns leading scientist. The Guardian 1 June 2022

Concluding comments

Let’s be clear this is only the beginnings of actual observable climate change. Not the end. These events are happening within what was considered the ‘safe range’ of a global average under 1.5C rise. We are continuing to make the situation worse, and there is always a delay….

The need to cut GHG gas emissions and transition to renewable energy quickly appears to begin the only way that present day large scale civilisations can survive. Hence you would think transition might be an urgent priority – although it still seems to be an urgent priority to have more coal and gas supplies.

However, we have several problems, the world is distracted by the ongoing mutating pandemic, the war in Ukraine (and there is no necessity that the war remains contained), is taking money away from climate mitigation and adaptation, and causing shortages of gas which is causing countries to open old coal plants, increase emissions, while also causing food shortages. Tackling inflation by putting up interest rates is likely to cause defaults not only on the housing market, but to countries and companies who are indebted and only just managing, which will likely cause an economic crisis, which will hinder ecological restoration and ambitious plans for energy transformation. The chaotic weather is also likely to disrupt travel and economic production and increase demand for electricity for air-conditioning and cooling, adding to the problems of energy, productive capacity and available money.